OIES Oil Monthly – Issue 3
The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly including our latest short-term oil market outlook is now available.
In this month’s featured In Focus piece, Bassam Fattouh and Andreas Economou argue that while oil market dynamics and prices have markedly improved, the degree of uncertainty surrounding the outlook remains high. Following a challenging year, OPEC+ policy choices will keep dictating market outcomes, but the recent oil price rebound does not yet signal the start of the next oil supercycle as the key triggers are still missing.
Despite the price momentum easing in recent weeks, a strong rebound in demand in H2 2021 faced with a gradual increase in production from OPEC+ are expected to sustain prices above $60/b in 2021 with the momentum gathering pace anew in H2. Our reference Brent price forecast for 2021 as a whole is now $62.1/b and for 2022 is $65.1/b. The balance of risks to our reference outlook in the very near-term has tilted to the upside and we project a market deficit in 2021 of 1.4 mb/d and a 1.1 mb/d deficit in 2022. As a result, OECD stocks are seen clearing to their 2015-2019 average faster than anticipated.