OIES Oil Monthly – Issue 1

The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) is very pleased to publish the first issue of its new Oil Monthly. The OIES Oil Monthly contains our short-term oil market outlook including oil price forecasts, the balance of risks surrounding the price forecasts, supply and demand trends and the global oil balance expanding to 2022 based on our state-of-the-art structural VAR model of the global oil market and integrated oil supply and demand forecasting models further decomposed by region, sector and liquids.

In this month’s In Focus piece, Bassam Fattouh and Andreas Economou analyse Saudi Arabia’s latest decision to cut production and argue the decision was not political – as some have suggested – but rather based on its reading of market dynamics. The authors argue that this move offers Saudi Arabia greater flexibility in its future choices, shows its willingness to act independently when market conditions require and could potentially results in higher revenues for 2021. Rather than weaken OPEC+ cohesion, Saudi Arabia’s surprise cut could end up enhancing it in very challenging times.