Global Trends in Oil and Energy: Implications for the GCC and Foreign Policy Responses
This Insight published by the Emirates Diplomatic Academy (EDA) is the outcome of a joint workshop between the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) and EDA and draws on ideas and data presented by Dr Bassam Fattouh during the workshop. The insight examines how global energy markets are evolving, what this could mean for Gulf oil exporters, and how these countries could respond. The workshop identified ten structural trends that are expected to be largely responsible for shaping global energy markets over the next two decades and analysing their implication on Gulf exporters. These are: Acceleration of shift in oil demand away from the OECD to non-OECD; Shifts in oil demand patterns within non-OECD Asia; Continuing role of US shale oil as a ‘new’, nimble source of supply; Shift in oil trade flows from ‘East to East’ and from ‘West to East’; Possibility of the US/North America becoming a net oil and natural gas exporter; Changing relations within OPEC countries; Growing relevance of Russia-OPEC relations; Changing nature of geopolitical risks affecting the oil market; Shift in oil market perceptions from oil scarcity to oil abundance; and high uncertainty regarding the impact of technological developments and climate change policies on future oil demand.