Challenges to the Future of LNG: decarbonisation, affordability and profitability
In this podcast, David Ledesma interviews Professor Jonathan Stern founder of the Natural Gas Research Programme at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and a Distinguished Research Fellow, to discuss his recent paper “Challenges to the Future of LNG: decarbonisation, affordability and profitability”, published in October 2019. Natural gas combusted along the LNG value chain equates to 11-13 per cent of the gas produced at the wellhead, which means that LNG has significantly higher emissions than a typical pipeline gas value chain. In order to meet COP21 targets, unabated gas demand in Europe will need to decline in the 2030s (at the latest), while in other regions decline may be delayed until the 2040s. Projects currently taking FID and starting operations around 2024-25, may not have recovered their costs prior to anticipated European demand decline, but should have done so prior to more general global decline. Nevertheless, tightening emissions standards should be very much on the radar of new project developers. The LNG community needs to replace an ‘advocacy’ message, based on the generality of emissions from the combustion of natural gas being lower than other fossil fuels, with certified data on carbon and methane emission data from specific value chains, based on transparent methodologies.