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[post_content] => The 2014 oil price downturn caused the US unconventional oil and gas industry to undertake an array of cost-cutting measures affecting both capital and operational expenditures. Focus shifted towards operational efficiency, well design, and the maximization of each dollar spent, and away from the gold rush mentality that had characterized the former $100/bl price environment. Perhaps counterintuitively, the emphasis on efficiency has helped to propel consecutive years of well productivity gains across several shale plays. These gains have continued into 2017, even as the industry still grasps at profitability. This Insight seeks to build on the 2016 paper Unravelling the US Shale Productivity Gains on well productivity gains. Specifically, it examines the continued productivity growth across multiple US shale plays and attempts to identify the factors contributing to this growth, as well as addressing some of the potential economic constraints.
[post_title] => Completion Design Changes and the Impact on US Shale Well Productivity
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[post_content] => This paper seeks to assess the well productivity changes in US shale since the collapse of oil prices in 2014 by analysing the nature of these productivity gains through an assessment of the impact of cost cuts, efficiency gains, and technology advances on the performance of recently developed shale and tight oil wells. The paper argues that the shale oil sector is becoming far more resilient and nimble than many had expected and productivity continues to grow even in a low price environment. Looking ahead, there is a lot of running room left in the unconventional oil plays. The paper argues that high grading to core areas is an important factor, but it does not explain the entirety of productivity gains. While there has been no single transformative technological development with regards to shale oil development over the past several years, there are signs that shale oil is moving from a manufacturing process, in which producers simply repeat what worked on the previous well, to a more thoughtful well researched program, particularly in the areas of completion designs, well spacing, better rock analysis and proper lateral placement, which have all been contributing to well productivity gains.
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[post_content] => One of the biggest unanswered questions facing the market is whether or not relatively high-cost US shale oil production can survive in a relatively low oil price environment (sub $60 per barrel). This is the first economic test of the shale oil renaissance. While shale production has thus far proved resilient (due to a combination of factors, such as enhancing efficiency gains, lowering the cost of services, and retreating to the more productive areas), signs of weakness are beginning to show. This paper seeks to answer a number of questions, including:
• Can the efficiency gains made over the past several months sustain current production levels?
• Which of the main shale plays are likely to be impacted the most?
• Will debt levels and bankruptcies put US companies and production at risk?
The paper reaches some interesting conclusions:
- Despite efficiency gains, the number of rigs drilling for oil continue to decline as oil prices falter. This depressed rig count is just now beginning to impact production levels and will further impact production in the coming months.
- Companies are spending more efficiently and wisely, but profitability was tough to come by at $100 oil. The stronger and larger independent companies should be able to survive a long-term lull intact, but acquisitions can be expected given depressed equity values. In addition to oil price risk, rising interest rates and a reduction in risk appetite among lenders pose survivability risks for some operators, particularly for companies who plan to borrow to survive until oil prices recover.
• How long oil prices remain low is a key determinant in the flexibility of US crude production. The US will not be a swing producer in the conventional OPEC sense where production can quickly be turned on and off within months. Should oil prices remain depressed through the duration of 2016, it will take additional time to raise production levels. Many people have already lost their jobs and much deeper cuts remain a reality. Service providers will go out of business. While the US is a flexible and liquid market, it will take time to bring the workforce back when oil prices rise.
- Low oil prices will not kill the US shale industry, but they may put it into hibernation. Further rock analysis and technological advances need to be made in order to move the industry forward and reduce costs. Severe CAPEX cuts will reduce these advances in the near term.
Executive Summary
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-
-
21.11.16
Unravelling the US Shale Productivity Gains
This paper seeks to assess the well productivity changes in US shale since the collapse of oil prices in 2014 by analysing the nature of these productivity gains through an assessment of the impact of cost cuts, efficiency gains, and technology advances on the performance of recently developed shale and tight oil wells. The paper argues […]
By:
Trisha Curtis
Download Publication
-
02.11.15
US Shale Oil Dynamics in a Low Price Environment
One of the biggest unanswered questions facing the market is whether or not relatively high-cost US shale oil production can survive in a relatively low oil price environment (sub $60 per barrel). This is the first economic test of the shale oil renaissance. While shale production has thus far proved resilient (due to a combination […]
By:
Trisha Curtis
Download Publication