Thierry Bros

Research Associate

From 2016 to 2019 Dr. Thierry Bros was Senior Research Fellow for the Gas Programme.

From 2010 to 2016, Thierry was Senior European Gas and LNG Analyst for Société Générale. He joined Société Générale in 2007 as a Senior Financial Analyst to provide recommendations on listed pan-European gas stocks and in-depth research on gas issues. From 2002 to 2007, Thierry was a Senior Oil & Gas expert at the French Ministry of Economy, Finance and Industry, where he represented France on oil markets and advised on emergency issues at the International Energy Agency, the European Commission and the Energy Charter. His responsibilities included providing global oil and gas industry reviews to senior French officials and negotiating European directives. As a gas specialist, he reviewed the regulations governing the liberalisation of the French gas market and supervised the Contingency Gas Plan. Prior to that, Thierry worked, for eight years at IFPEN, an oil & gas research institute. Thierry Bros holds a Master of chemical engineering from ESPCI ParisTech and a PhD from Ecole Centrale Paris.

Thierry is the author of the book “After the US Shale Gas revolution” (2012) and a co-author of the books “The European Gas Markets: Challenges and Opportunities” (2017), “Géopolitique du gaz russe” (2017) and “The Oxford Handbook of International Security” (2018).

Thierry is also Vice President Research for Tellurian, a company building a global integrated low-cost LNG from the US. He is also a Senior Expert at Energy Delta Institute, a visiting Professor at SciencesPo Paris, a member of the EU-Russia Gas Advisory Council and an advisory board member to Natural Gas World, an independent specialized website dedicated to global gas matters.

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                    [post_date] => 2019-10-09 10:54:28
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                    [post_content] => With thanks to Argus Media, we updated our “LNG tightness” metric that measures the spread between the US Gulf Coast LNG FOB and the Henry Hub price. It is interesting to keep track of this ‘LNG tightness’ in a fast-changing energy world. So far it has never been low and/or long lasting enough to force production to shut anywhere. We have therefore not yet seen a price war between LNG and pipeline gas.

After providing a detailed analysis of 2018 hydrocarbon production and reserves for major oil & gas companies, we look at the major challenges IOCs are now facing in a fast energy transition post-COP21. The world has never been addicted to oil so much as to cheap energy. With renewable energy cheaper, the world energy addiction is moving into renewables. Hence, we doubt that fossil-based companies that are dependent on resource prices could continue to thrive when the world moves away from fossil fuels. In our quest for a net-zero carbon emission world, the power of influence is shifting away from energy producers. But the energy transition path is still uncertain.
                    [post_title] => Quarterly Gas Review - Issue 7
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                    [post_content] => Thanks to Argus Media, we updated our “LNG tightness” metric that measures the spread between the US Gulf Coast LNG FOB and the Henry Hub price. It is interesting to keep track of this ‘LNG tightness’ in a fast-changing energy world. A period of oversupply leads normally to behavioural changes to adapt to a new business model and the LNG market should not be an exception. ​

With the aim of checking if Continental Europe can become the global world energy storage operator (via LNG reloads), we have designed with Argus Media a ‘Global added value for European storage’ indicator on an historical basis and using future curves. On the historical side we also added the effective monthly LNG reloads. In short, European storage has an added worldwide value if our ‘Global added value for European storage’ is positive.
                    [post_title] => Quarterly Gas Review - Issue 6
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                    [post_content] => In this issue of the OIES Quarterly Gas Review we updated our “LNG tightness” metric (with thanks to Argus Media) that measures the spread between the US Gulf Coast LNG FOB and the Henry Hub price. It is interesting to keep track of this ‘LNG tightness’ in a fast-changing energy world. In December 2018 with Ichthys LNG up and running, Yamal LNG reaching full capacity after train 3 started production in the November and the commissioning of Bovanenkovskoye field’s third and final gas production facility, an incremental 43 bcm/y capacity increase materialised. This translates into global spare capacity increasing for the first time in the last 3 years, leading to a sharp decrease of our “LNG tightness” indicator.

Using Patrick Heather’s research  we have implemented a methodology to calculate the churn rates of HH for the United States, TTF for North-West Europe and JKM for Asian LNG. For 2018, our analysis shows that JKM, TTF and HH respectively qualify as illiquid, liquid, and very liquid hubs.
                    [post_title] => Quarterly Gas Review - Issue 5
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                    [post_date] => 2019-02-13 11:32:58
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                    [post_content] => Much is reported in the press on the UK government's struggle to negotiate the withdrawal agreement, and the main focus as we approach the deadline has been on the potential impact of a so-called No Deal Brexit on the UK economy.

French energy law specifies that only companies based in the EU have the authorisation to supply gas in France; unless a specific agreement can be reached on this issue before the withdrawal date, all  shippers on the French network based in the UK will, on 30th March, automatically lose their authorisation to supply gas in France. This situation concerns some 10 or so shippers who set up their trading desks in the UK, as the British fiscal regime was far more conducive to their activities than that in France.

The French State is not willing, nor is it able, to fast track a change in the law to accommodate UK companies post-Brexit. The current situation shows how much still needs to be done, because the consequences are potentially major as the amount of gas 'at risk' is possibly up to 40 per cent of demand.
                    [post_title] => French gas customers face a real risk from a No Deal Brexit
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                    [post_content] => In Europe, the Brexit unknowns are increasing, and the gas markets have still not been properly addressed, leaving little time before March 2019 to find a commonly agreed solution not only for the short but also the long-term. We are now seeing industry lobby groups like Eurogas and Eurelectric interfering in Brexit energy issues, making them less likely to be solved.

This is why more and more planning is going into the event of a no-deal Brexit scenario, like the introduction of a UK Carbon Emissions Tax (16 £/t) on top of the existing UK Carbon Price Support (18 £/t) and setting the total carbon price in the UK at 34 £/t to offset the impact of a UK withdrawal from the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). This new Carbon Emission Tax is supposed to mirror the EU ETS situation as long as CO2 prices stay around 18 €/t in Europe.

The industry is closely watching European storage levels to get a better picture of the supply-demand balance. We argue in this section, that recent trends are not useful for monitoring 2019/2020. With no-deal for post-2019 Ukrainian transit and Nord Stream 2 unlikely to be in operation by then, we believe that European storages will have to be filled to their maximum effective level ahead of the 2019/20 winter.

Storage levels next summer could provide an indication of the timing of a Ukrainian transit deal. If a deal can only be reached at the last minute (or even later in January 2020), EU-27 storage will need to reach 97% full by October 2019, much higher than the 87% and 89% recorded respectively in October 2018 and 2017. In the summer of 2018 extra storage need (69 TWh) was the main reason for European hub prices to move up when demand was going down. If Europe needs another 105 TWh for storage alone in the next 12 months, (i.e. to get up to 97%) it could further tighten the regional supply-demand balance, as this is not taken into account by the actual market consensus scenario.

In a perfect world, we could expect more foreign supply (from LNG and Gazprom restarting Turkmen gas re-exports) to balance the European system in 2019 and a competitive fixed price deal for transiting gas via Ukraine. But mixing policy and economics doesn’t mean the best outcome will be achieved. Hence the market could face high level uncertainties about the Ukrainian transit contract renewal and the Nord Stream 2 start-up and ramp-up, making the 2019/2020 gas year very interesting.

Our scenario suggests that even if Nord Stream 2 is not operational in early 2020, Gazprom could refrain from signing an uncompetitive long-term contract with Naftogaz transport because filling EU-27 storage to its maximum level could help mitigate the expected transit risk.

 

 
                    [post_title] => Quarterly Gas Review - Issue 4
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                    [post_content] => In his presentation, given at the recent Argus conference in Paris, Thierry Bros presents not only the LNG tightness indicator devised with Argus, but also the new European narrative for gas as explained in the last two OIES Quarterly Gas Reviews: 1/more coal to gas switching in Europe if the energy efficiency boost witnessed in 2006-2014 cannot be repeated going forward and 2/a new rational for European gas storage in an energy transition world still short of cheap energy storage options.
                    [post_title] => A new narrative for gas
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                    [post_content] => In Issue 3 of the Quarterly Gas Review, we explain why the EU Commission should consider transforming the crude and refined products strategic obligations into an energy storage obligation, allowing all fuels to be included, in the cheapest way, in providing the required energy storage buffer. This could be achieved by changing Directive 2009/119/EC which imposes an obligation on Member States to maintain minimum stocks of crude oil and/or petroleum products and was  designed at a time when oil was more relevant than today, the energy transition hadn’t really started, and energy markets were not fully functional. In a fast-changing world, the pro-oil Directive is neither fuel- nor technology-neutral and is therefore hindering innovation and competition. We argue that making all EU energy storage compete on a level playing field could allow the market to select greener and cheaper options, something that should please both policymakers and taxpayers. This could be the new energy narrative for the next EU Commission.

Interview with Thierry Bros on 'A New Narrative for Gas in Europe' on Dukascopy TV
                    [post_title] => Quarterly Gas Review - Issue 3
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                    [post_content] => In Issue 2 of the new Quarterly Gas Review series:
  • We show that the biggest reductions in CO2 emissions occur when primary energy consumption is decreased. The change in energy mix towards greener fuels has so far been much less important. One of the main EU 2020 targets was to achieve its CO2 reduction by being more energy efficient. This worked well in 2006-2014, when for the first time ever the EU managed to grow its GDP while decreasing its energy consumption. At the time this seemed to be a major achievement but, since 2014, the usual positive coupling between GDP and primary energy consumption has restarted. We argue that if the 2006-2014 energy efficiency boost is a non-repeatable event, the EU will not be on track to meet the increased energy savings being discussed to enable the implementation of its 2030 Energy Strategy and it would therefore need to move out of coal and oil much faster than anticipated, as the UK example shows.
  • After providing a detailed analysis of hydrocarbon production and reserves for major oil & gas companies, we look at the major challenges IOCs are now facing in a fast energy transition post-COP21 world and find 5 major challenges. The world has never been addicted to oil but to cheap energy. With renewable energy cheaper, the world addiction to energy is moving into renewables. Hence, we doubt that fossil-based companies that are dependent on resource prices could continue to thrive when the world moves away from this resource. ​
[post_title] => Quarterly Gas Review - Issue 2 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => quarterly-gas-review-analysis-prices-recent-events-issue-2 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2018-09-06 11:35:00 [post_modified_gmt] => 2018-09-06 10:35:00 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=31093 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [8] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 31079 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2018-06-12 11:38:53 [post_date_gmt] => 2018-06-12 10:38:53 [post_content] => In a global gas market, LNG provides diversification and optionality both for producers and consumers. In this presentation, an LNG tightness indicator, designed with the help of Argus Media, is used to aid our understanding of gas markets dynamics, as well as spare capacity calculations published in the first OIES quarterly gas review. [post_title] => The global effect of LNG growth on European gas markets [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => global-effect-lng-growth-european-gas-markets [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2018-06-12 11:38:53 [post_modified_gmt] => 2018-06-12 10:38:53 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=31079 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [9] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 31047 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2018-05-16 09:30:20 [post_date_gmt] => 2018-05-16 08:30:20 [post_content] => Presented by Thierry Bros at FLAME 2018 - With gas markets working, policy makers and regulators should now only focus on preservation of competition for the benefit of customers. [post_title] => Pricing and Competition in Mature & Liquid Markets [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => pricing-competition-mature-liquid-markets [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2018-05-16 09:30:20 [post_modified_gmt] => 2018-05-16 08:30:20 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=31047 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [10] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 30954 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2018-03-29 10:35:07 [post_date_gmt] => 2018-03-29 09:35:07 [post_content] => In this first of a new series of Quarterly Gas Reviews, Thierry Bros provides his insights and analysis on recent regional and global pricing issues while also commenting on relevant questions concerning policy and market-related matters. The report contains two major sections: an analysis of prices and recent events and a “Quarterly Focus” which provides an in-depth look at a specific topic of current relevance.   [post_title] => Quarterly Gas Review - Issue 1 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => quarterly-gas-review-analysis-prices-recent-events [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2018-09-06 11:36:24 [post_modified_gmt] => 2018-09-06 10:36:24 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=30954 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [11] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 30923 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2018-03-14 11:36:57 [post_date_gmt] => 2018-03-14 11:36:57 [post_content] => This article, published in Gazprom Export Blue Fuel Magazine, examines the consequences of record Russian exports into the EU. If Gazprom’s market share is too high in the future, could this allow the EU to push its new policy agenda? [post_title] => EU-Russia: Energy, Policy and Competition [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => eu-russia-energy-policy-competition [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2018-03-14 11:36:57 [post_modified_gmt] => 2018-03-14 11:36:57 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=30923 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [12] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 30844 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2018-01-31 12:41:57 [post_date_gmt] => 2018-01-31 12:41:57 [post_content] => With energy demand in Africa forecast to grow quickly in the coming decades, the prospects of LNG imports have been talked up by many commentators, with Ghana being thought of as one of the brightest prospects. Ghana first began developing its gas market by importing pipeline gas from Nigeria, along the West African Gas Pipeline, at the end of 2008, to replace the burning of expensive light crude oil in power plants.  However, the supply of gas from Nigeria has not lived up to expectations, with Nigerian suppliers failing to deliver the contractual amounts, the pipeline being occasionally breached and non-payment by Ghana becoming a problem in 2014.  At the same time, Ghana began to develop its own gas reserves, with the start-up of associated gas from the Tullow-operated Jubilee field in 2014, followed by the TEN field in 2016.  In 2018 the start-up of the Sankofa field will add significantly to the level of domestic production. However, even with optimistic projections on the growth in electricity generation, combined with an assumption that all power plants which can burn gas will do so, there appears to be no room in the market for LNG until after 2020 at the earliest.  Additionally, there have been a number of abortive attempts to develop Floating Storage Regasification Unit (FSRU) projects, with the lack of enforceable contracts, inability to put in place the necessary infrastructure and creditworthiness all being concerns. The IEA in WEO 2017 was relatively bullish on the prospects for gas demand growth in Africa, assisted in part by the deployment of FSRUs.  However, the experience of Ghana suggests that these prospects may be over-optimistic. If the LNG glut that so many are expecting does not materialise then Ghana, like Ivory Coast, may have missed the boat in terms of accessing cheap LNG via FSRU. African gas demand growth should be centred on using locally domestic resources. This will not help to foster FIDs for African LNG projects as they won’t get any regional customers and would therefore have to compete in the other regional markets (Asia, Europe and Latin America). [post_title] => Future prospects for LNG demand in Ghana [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => future-prospects-lng-demand-ghana [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2018-02-09 09:43:35 [post_modified_gmt] => 2018-02-09 09:43:35 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=30844 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [13] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 30803 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2018-01-04 10:21:30 [post_date_gmt] => 2018-01-04 10:21:30 [post_content] => On the morning of 12 December (9:00 CET), an explosion at the major European gas hub at Baumgarten in Austria forced the operator to close the gas facility. Italian gas prices surged as a result to 80€/MWh or 27$/MMBtu and Italy declared a state of emergency regarding energy supplies. Flows restarted later the same evening (24:00 CET) and Month-Ahead prices returned to close to their pre- blast level (c. 8$/MMBtu) on 13 December. In recent years, gas markets have also been impacted by other such unexpected events including the Fukushima disaster in 2011, the US Polar Vortex in 2014, the Groningen cap reduction and some tightness in Southern Europe in 2017 leading to some policy “declarations”. But in fact, gas markets are mature and liquid enough to have mitigated such issues without any state intervention: the recent Italian position was, again, simply a “declaration” as the security of the Italian system is guaranteed by storage facilities. What the emergency declaration shows though, is that whilst the gas industry is resilient and markets do work, implementation of the existing regulation is needed.   [post_title] => Reflection on the Baumgarten Gas Explosion: Markets are Working [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => reflection-baumgarten-gas-explosion [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2018-01-04 10:37:16 [post_modified_gmt] => 2018-01-04 10:37:16 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=30803 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [14] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 30733 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2017-11-14 10:32:22 [post_date_gmt] => 2017-11-14 10:32:22 [post_content] => Thierry Bros on the impact of the arrival of a new competitor (US LNG) on European prices where Gazprom has a sizeable market share and hence real market power, at the November 2017 Energetika Conference in St Petersburg. [post_title] => US LNG vs Russian Pipeline Gas: impact on prices [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => us-lng-vs-russian-pipeline-gas-impact-prices [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-11-14 10:32:22 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-11-14 10:32:22 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=30733 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [15] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 30675 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2017-10-17 10:45:03 [post_date_gmt] => 2017-10-17 09:45:03 [post_content] => In this written submission to the Inquiry into the implications of Brexit for energy security in the UK by the EU Energy and Environment Sub-Committee of the House of Lords, we conclude that Brexit could have an impact on interconnecting-pipeline regulations. The use and value of these infrastructures could be affected by negotiations, leading to some new risks for UK in terms of not only Security of Supply but also energy pricing competitiveness vs the Continent. We also focused on Ireland, as this country, which is very well connected to the UK and poorly connected to the rest of the EU, will have a special position regarding Brexit negotiations. Finally, we stress that the price outcome of CO2 emissions determined by the EU ETS will also impact energy security in the UK because it dictates the fuel mix. [post_title] => Brexit Energy Security Enquiry [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => brexit-energy-security-enquiry [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-10-18 09:20:03 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-10-18 08:20:03 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=30675 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [16] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 30642 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2017-09-15 10:43:36 [post_date_gmt] => 2017-09-15 09:43:36 [post_content] => This presentation, an update on key trends in European gas markets, was given by Thierry Bros during a Gazprom investor trip. [post_title] => European Gas Markets - Key Trends [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => european-gas-markets-key-trends [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-09-15 10:43:36 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-09-15 09:43:36 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=30642 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [17] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 30608 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2017-09-05 12:06:33 [post_date_gmt] => 2017-09-05 11:06:33 [post_content] => This presentation was given by Dr. Thierry Bros at the first Future UK Gas Security Forum in London, 4 September 2017. The Future UK Gas Security Forum is funded by the University of Warwick’s ESRC Impact Accelerator Account and is a network comprised of academic, industry, policy making, Think-Tank and NGO experts and stakeholders involved in UK gas policy and the UK gas supply chain. The forum provides an arena to mobilise WBS (Warwick), OIES (Oxford) and UKERC research capacity to consider the impact of Brexit upon future UK gas security. During the first meeting, Thierry Bros presented his recent papers on Brexit and discussed the business and policy implications.   [post_title] => Brexit's Impact on Energy Markets: Brexit and Security of Supply for the UK and Ireland [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => brexits-impact-energy-markets-brexit-security-supply-uk-ireland [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-09-05 12:06:33 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-09-05 11:06:33 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=30608 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [18] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 30448 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2017-06-09 15:09:54 [post_date_gmt] => 2017-06-09 14:09:54 [post_content] => This presentation was given by Thierry Bros at the Africa Energy Forum in Copenhagen, 7-8 June 2017. Historically Africa is one of the world’s most neglected energy provinces where affordable clean energy is urgently needed. This presentation forms part of the OIES Gas Programme work on Africa and part of its ongoing research programme looking at the future of gas in the global energy mix. [post_title] => Gas, Renewables & Power in Africa [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => gas-renewables-power-africa [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-06-09 15:09:54 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-06-09 14:09:54 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=30448 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [19] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 30441 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2017-06-09 10:23:07 [post_date_gmt] => 2017-06-09 09:23:07 [post_content] => This third OIES Brexit publication looks at the European-wide EU emissions trading system (EU ETS) issues. We argue that the many burdensome patches to be implemented, together with those that are already agreed or discussed, are as nothing compared to the Brexit unknowns if there is no united political will. [post_title] => EU ETS: fasten your seat belts [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => eu-ets-fasten-seat-belts [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-06-09 10:23:07 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-06-09 09:23:07 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=30441 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [20] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 30394 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2017-05-15 17:45:09 [post_date_gmt] => 2017-05-15 16:45:09 [post_content] => In this presentation, Thierry Bros argues that the Dutch TTF is now the most liquid hub in Europe (in front of the UK NBP). He also analyses the dynamics of the new Groningen cap, US LNG and record Russian flows. The presentation concludes with a focus on the potential  impacts of Brexit on policy and infrastructure. [post_title] => European Gas Pricing Dynamics [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => european-gas-pricing-dynamics [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-05-15 17:46:45 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-05-15 16:46:45 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=30394 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [21] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 30162 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2017-03-02 11:09:30 [post_date_gmt] => 2017-03-02 11:09:30 [post_content] => This comment, dealing with Ireland, is the second in the recently launched research series focusing on Brexit’s impact on gas markets as negotiations continue between the UK and the EU. In it we conclude that the Irish regulator should acknowledge that the TTF is the European index and should use this price signal. The UK gas market would then be surrounded with the same price signal from both East and West. Irish utilities, instead of sourcing gas on the UK hub, would need to sign contracts with Norwegian producers for gas to be delivered in to Ireland at a TTF price (with the UK being used as a transit country), thus solving the security of supply issue for the medium-term.

[post_title] => Brexit's Impact on Gas Markets - Irish Options: IBP, NBP or TTF? [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => brexits-impact-gas-markets-irish-options-ibp-nbp-ttf [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-03-02 11:09:30 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-03-02 11:09:30 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=30162 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [22] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 30060 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2017-01-30 09:52:29 [post_date_gmt] => 2017-01-30 09:52:29 [post_content] =>

The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies is launching a new research theme on the impact of Brexit on gas markets. This publication dealing with Security of Supply is the first of a series that will focus on Brexit as negotiations continue between the UK and the EU. We conclude that: 1) the UK needs to reshape its energy diplomacy that has in the last decade increasingly been handled by Brussels; 2) the three EU-UK interconnector regulations are going to be crucial to the way Brexit impacts on gas markets; 3) Brexit negotiations will have an impact on the NBP-TTF spread.

Interview with Thierry Bros via Dukoscopy TV

Podcast with Thierry Bros via Platts

[post_title] => Brexit's impact on gas markets: Brexit and security of supply for the UK and Ireland [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => brexits-impact-gas-markets-brext-security-supply-uk-ireland [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-02-21 15:02:03 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-02-21 15:02:03 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=30060 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [23] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 29870 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2016-11-23 10:09:32 [post_date_gmt] => 2016-11-23 10:09:32 [post_content] => The issue of gas transit through Ukraine remains a crucial commercial and political concern, given the current debate over the future of Nord Stream 2 and the gradual approach of 2019, when the current contract between Gazprom and Naftogaz will expire. In this short note we examine Naftogaz’s latest tactic, which has been to increase the Ukraine transit tariff in the short-term while promising a more competitive fee once its pipeline system has been amortised. We question whether this is the best way for Ukraine to promote the use of its pipeline infrastructure over the long-term, especially given the increasingly competitive nature of the European gas market. We note that Gazprom has adjusted its own marketing strategy to take account of the changing market environment, and we ask whether it might not be logical for Naftogaz to adopt a more commercial, and less political, stance in its transit negotiations if it really wants to reduce the chance of Nord Stream 2 being built. [post_title] => Has Ukraine scored an own-goal with its transit fee proposal? [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => ukraine-scored-goal-transit-fee-proposal [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-11-23 12:10:56 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-11-23 12:10:56 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=29870 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) ) [post_count] => 24 [current_post] => -1 [in_the_loop] => [post] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 31943 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2019-10-09 10:54:28 [post_date_gmt] => 2019-10-09 09:54:28 [post_content] => With thanks to Argus Media, we updated our “LNG tightness” metric that measures the spread between the US Gulf Coast LNG FOB and the Henry Hub price. It is interesting to keep track of this ‘LNG tightness’ in a fast-changing energy world. So far it has never been low and/or long lasting enough to force production to shut anywhere. We have therefore not yet seen a price war between LNG and pipeline gas. After providing a detailed analysis of 2018 hydrocarbon production and reserves for major oil & gas companies, we look at the major challenges IOCs are now facing in a fast energy transition post-COP21. The world has never been addicted to oil so much as to cheap energy. With renewable energy cheaper, the world energy addiction is moving into renewables. Hence, we doubt that fossil-based companies that are dependent on resource prices could continue to thrive when the world moves away from fossil fuels. In our quest for a net-zero carbon emission world, the power of influence is shifting away from energy producers. But the energy transition path is still uncertain. [post_title] => Quarterly Gas Review - Issue 7 [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => quarterly-gas-review-issue-7 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2019-10-09 10:54:28 [post_modified_gmt] => 2019-10-09 09:54:28 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=31943 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [comment_count] => 0 [current_comment] => -1 [found_posts] => 24 [max_num_pages] => 0 [max_num_comment_pages] => 0 [is_single] => [is_preview] => [is_page] => [is_archive] => 1 [is_date] => [is_year] => [is_month] => [is_day] => [is_time] => [is_author] => [is_category] => [is_tag] => [is_tax] => [is_search] => [is_feed] => [is_comment_feed] => [is_trackback] => [is_home] => [is_privacy_policy] => [is_404] => [is_embed] => [is_paged] => [is_admin] => [is_attachment] => [is_singular] => [is_robots] => [is_posts_page] => [is_post_type_archive] => 1 [query_vars_hash:WP_Query:private] => 99cfd400fc064a68d4d45df71b8d005f [query_vars_changed:WP_Query:private] => [thumbnails_cached] => [stopwords:WP_Query:private] => [compat_fields:WP_Query:private] => Array ( [0] => query_vars_hash [1] => query_vars_changed ) [compat_methods:WP_Query:private] => Array ( [0] => init_query_flags [1] => parse_tax_query ) )

Latest Publications by Thierry Bros