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[post_date] => 2019-11-13 12:14:02
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[post_content] => The trilateral talks between the EU, Russia, and Ukraine regarding the transit of Russian gas via Ukraine beyond the expiry of the existing transit contract, on 31 December 2019, have so far failed to yield a solution. With the deadline fast approaching, the sides remain far apart in their negotiating positions. This Insight assesses the current state of the negotiations, the likelihood of an interruption in Russian gas transit via Ukraine in January 2020, and the potential impact of such a suspension of gas transit.
[post_title] => Russia-Ukraine gas transit talks: risks for all sides
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[post_content] => The sale and purchase of Russian gas in the post-Soviet era has been dominated by the need for Gazprom, the dominant player, to sell to consumers at a regulated price. Since 1998 other producers, known in Russian legal terminology as the independents, have been able to sell gas at market prices, but these prices have always been heavily influenced by the regulated price because of the dominance of Gazprom’s volumes. Initially independent producers sold gas at a premium to Gazprom, due to the fact that the regulated price was set at a low level to provide a boost to industry and a subsidy to residential consumers, with the result that their sales volumes were limited and only went to customers with a need for extra gas to cover surplus demand, even at premium prices. However, during the past two decades regulated prices have risen significantly (see figure 2 below), largely due to pressure from Gazprom which asserted its need for higher revenues to underpin investments in new fields. The consequence has been that by 2012 independent producers were able to compete with Gazprom on price and win customers who historically had wanted to only pay low, regulated prices. Indeed, since 2012 independents have won significant market share from Gazprom and now account for around half of all gas sold on the domestic Russian market. This increasing price competition has underlined that the regulated gas price has effectively reached an equilibrium, at least partially reflecting the balance of supply and demand in Russia. However, the search for a market mechanism to reflect this situation has continued, with almost all transactions to date being bilateral deals between buyer and seller, largely on the basis of long-term contracts. Various means to relate gas prices in Russia to market reality have been tried since 2000, with varying degrees of success, but in 2014 the launch of a gas exchange in St Petersburg by SPIMEX, the St Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange, has offered the latest, and most serious, opportunity for a true market price to be established. This can have important consequences in Russia, where the SPIMEX price could eventually provide a benchmark for the domestic wholesale gas price and could also provide a foundation for further liberalisation of the gas market. Given the location of the exchange at one end of the Nord Stream pipeline, it could also impact the trading of gas exports to Europe. This latter opportunity remains some way from realisation, but nevertheless the development of more active gas trading in St Petersburg is a growing reality and deserves the attention of the wider gas community given its potential to connect two major gas markets and the possibility that it could play a role in easing relations between Russia and its gas customers to the west.
[post_title] => The SPIMEX Gas Exchange: Russian Gas Trading Possibilities
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[post_date] => 2016-08-05 11:42:39
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[post_content] => This paper addresses the expanding energy cooperation between Russia and China in the context of the political and commercial relationship between the two countries. It assesses progress during the post-Soviet era, but focuses especially on the past two years since sanctions were imposed on Russia by the US and the EU. It attempts to analyse the balance of bargaining power between the two countries via a detailed analysis of the various oil, gas, coal and power sector deals that have taken place, and assesses whether Russia's pivot to Asia is moving as smoothly as had been hoped by the Kremlin when the first major gas export deal with China was signed in May 2014. The paper continues the series of analyses of Russia's hydrocarbon export strategy that has been published over the past two years, and also deepens the OIES output on China and its energy import strategy. Furthermore, it aims to contribute to an understanding of the balance of Russia's political and commercial ambitions, which is of vital relevance to any analysis of the country's future relations with the global energy economy.
Executive Summary
[post_title] => Energy Relations between Russia and China: Playing Chess with the Dragon
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[post_content] => Gas exports have historically provided a foundation of economic and political strength for Russia and a source of significant revenues for its leading gas company, Gazprom. However, lower commodity prices, the imposition of sanctions on Russia in light of the Ukraine crisis, lower gas demand in Europe, the EU’s desire to diversify away from Russian gas and increasing competition from new global LNG supply are presenting multiple challenges. A search for new markets in Asia, and especially China, has begun, but is currently not progressing as fast as Russia would have hoped, while domestically Gazprom’s position is being challenged by third parties who are keen to break the company’s export monopoly.
This paper, jointly authored by James Henderson and Tatiana Mitrova, examines the emerging trends in Russia’s export strategy, identifying the key political drivers as well as the commercial factors that are influencing policy making. It analyses the catalysts behind Russia’s “pivot to Asia” in the gas sector, assesses the likelihood of this strategy being a success and argues that Europe will remain of vital importance as a major market for Russian gas for the foreseeable future. In light of this, the paper also examines Gazprom’s evolving gas marketing strategy and asks whether the company is adapting to the changes in European regulation and legislation in a positive manner. It considers the competitive position of Russian gas in Europe and Asia, delivered both by pipeline and by potential new LNG projects, and argues that Russian gas can have a pivotal role in both markets as its cost of supply is relatively low. Indeed, although it would currently appear that Gazprom’s strategy is being somewhat improvised in reaction to political and commercial events, the authors’ conclude that the company is gradually edging towards a more market-based outlook that could ultimately allow it to prosper even in a more competitive global gas market. It will need to continue this trend if it is to fend off competition from expanding global LNG supply but also from domestic competitors such as Novatek and Rosneft, who are keen to provide their own solutions to the challenges facing Russia’s gas export business.
Executive Summary
[post_title] => The Political and Commercial Dynamics of Russia's Gas Export Strategy
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