Sylvie Cornot-Gandolphe

Research Associate

Sylvie Cornot-Gandolphe is an independent consultant on energy and raw materials, focussing on international issues. Since 2014, she has collaborated with the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) as a Research Fellow. She also works with the Energy Centre of the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI) as a Research Associate, with CyclOpe, the reference publication on commodities, and with CEDIGAZ, the international centre of information on natural gas of IFPEN. Sylvie Cornot-Gandolphe has a long and proven experience in global gas and energy markets, gained during her past positions at IFPEN/CEDIGAZ, the UN/ECE, the IEA and ATIC Services. She is the author of several reference publications on energy markets. Her latest publications include reports on gas, coal and shale oil and gas: COP21, Haro sur le charbon (IFRI, January 2016), The European Gas Market Looking for its Golden Age? (IFRI, October 2015, co-author), US coal exports: the long road to Asian markets (OIES, March 2015), The US shale oil revolution: the test of the business model is underway (IFRI, January 2015), China’s Coal Market: Can Beijing Tame ‘King Coal’? (OIES, December 2014), China’s Gas Strategy (IFRI, November 2014), Gas and Coal Competition in the EU Power Sector (CEDIGAZ, June 2014), The impact of the US shale gas revolution on Europe’s petrochemical industries (IFRI, November 2013), Underground gas storage in the world (CEDIGAZ, June 2013), Global coal trade: from tightness to oversupply (IFRI, January 2013).

Contact

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                    [post_content] => Driven by rapidly increasing electricity demand, Southeast Asia coal demand has surged since 2010. The availability of coal in the region, and its lower cost than competing fuels, has made coal the preferred option to fuel rising power demand. The region added 25 GW of coal-based capacity in the past five years, accounting for 42 per cent of total additional generation capacity. Even the gas-producing countries in the region have introduced more coal in their electricity mix as gas shortages pushed them to diversify their mix. However, this shift compromises the national commitments taken by Southeast Asian governments to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. In the wake of the Paris Agreement, national governments across the region have started to reassess their power development plans, introducing more renewable energy sources, promoting energy efficiency measures, and reducing the contribution of coal in the electricity mix. This reassessment, however, does not constitute a shift away from coal. Despite the scale back, coal still dominates the targeted additional capacity, followed by natural gas, hydropower, and other renewables: there are 29 GW of coal-based capacity under construction in the region, most of them to be completed by 2020. In addition, there is a huge number of permitted and announced coal-fired power plants in the pipeline, which means that the shift towards coal may continue well after 2020. The growth in Southeast Asian coal demand is therefore mixed: until 2020, it is expected to be steep as more coal-fired power plants are commissioned, but after that date, the rate of growth is expected to slow down significantly. The wide range of outlooks for future coal demand has a significant impact on regional coal trade.
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                    [post_content] => Driven by rapidly increasing electricity demand, Southeast Asia coal demand has surged since 2010. The availability of coal in the region, and its lower cost than competing fuels, has made coal the preferred option to fuel rising power demand. The region added 25 GW of coal-based capacity in the past five years, accounting for 42 per cent of total additional generation capacity. Even the gas-producing countries in the region have introduced more coal in their electricity mix as gas shortages pushed them to diversify their mix. However, this shift compromises the national commitments taken by Southeast Asian governments to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. In the wake of the Paris Agreement, national governments across the region have started to reassess their power development plans, introducing more renewable energy sources, promoting energy efficiency measures, and reducing the contribution of coal in the electricity mix. This reassessment, however, does not constitute a shift away from coal. Despite the scale back, coal still dominates the targeted additional capacity, followed by natural gas, hydropower, and other renewables: there are 29 GW of coal-based capacity under construction in the region, most of them to be completed by 2020. In addition, there is a huge number of permitted and announced coal-fired power plants in the pipeline, which means that the shift towards coal may continue well after 2020. The growth in Southeast Asian coal demand is therefore mixed: until 2020, it is expected to be steep as more coal-fired power plants are commissioned, but after that date, the rate of growth is expected to slow down significantly. The wide range of outlooks for future coal demand has a significant impact on regional coal trade.
                    [post_title] => The role of coal in Southeast Asia's power sector
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                    [post_content] => Coal demand in the US power sector has decreased significantly since 2008 as competition from shale gas has developed and new environmental regulations has made coal less attractive. To offset the loss on the domestic market, US coal mining companies have turned to the export market. Since 2010, they have actively developed their coal exports and achieved record levels in 2011 and 2012. However, exports have decreased since 2013 as coal prices have fallen and competition between exporters has become fierce. As most US ports are located on the East and the Gulf Coasts, Europe has traditionally be the main outlet for US coal exports. But US steam coal exports collapsed in 2014 because of a loss of competitiveness of US coal in Europe. Due to the current and future importance of Asia in the international coal markets, US exporters have turned their attention to the Asian market and have been able to capture new market shares in Asia. However, US steam coal exports to Asia are constrained by the lack of export capacity on the West Coast despite several proposals to build new export terminals. Recent market development and strong environmental opposition have impeded the development of coal terminals in the Pacific Northwest so far.
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                    [post_title] => US Coal Exports - The Long Road to Asian Markets
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                    [post_content] => Since 2009, China has turned from a net coal exporter to a net importer, and by a large margin. In 2013, the country accounted for almost a quarter of global steam coal imports. This shift has had a tremendous impact on global trade and prices. China has become a price setter for steam coal after overtaking Japan in 2009 as the world’s biggest importer. Increasing imports have exacerbated oversupply on the domestic market and led to a dramatic fall in coal prices and revenues of coal miners. The government is determine to improve the health of the coal industry, while at the same time combatting air pollution from coal mining, transport and combustion. The new policy measures adopted since September 2013, such as the Airborne Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan, the mandated reduction in coal production and imports, the ban on low-grade coal imports and sales, have a significant impact on the level of coal supply and demand. Short, medium- and long-term market and policy developments, however, have different impacts on international steam coal trade.
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Executive Summary
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Latest Publications by Sylvie Cornot-Gandolphe