Richard Mallinson

Research Associate

Richard leads analysis of geopolitics and global energy policy at Energy Aspects, where he is also a founding partner. He is a specialist on the MENA region, and follows developments in Libya, Iran and Iraq particularly closely. Richard focuses on how geopolitical events and trends impact on energy market fundamentals, particularly global oil markets.

Prior to joining Energy Aspects, Richard spent more than six years working in central government functions in both the UK and Australasia. He has a deep understanding and track record of impact in all aspects of policy-making and analysis. He regularly provides media comment on geopolitical events and energy markets in publications such as the Financial Times and Wall Street Journal as well as appearing on CNBC, Bloomberg, the BBC, Sky News and others. Richard holds a BA in Politics and International Studies from the University of Warwick and is a member of the Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House).

Contact

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                    [post_content] => Iraqi oil production outperformed expectations in 2015, after numerous years of disappointing growth. Iraqi production, including output from the semi-autonomous Kurdish region, rose by 0.62 mb/d to above 3.9 mb/d in 2015, the fastest growth since 2004 when Iraq’s oil sector was recovering after the US invasion. The growth was even more impressive at points during 2015 – up by almost 1 mb/d year-on-year across July and August 2015. Production controlled by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) also grew strongly in 2015, as independent exports via the Kurdish-controlled pipeline to Turkey ramped up, compensating for the permanent closure of the older Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline. Given that Iraq was one of the main contributors to oil output growth in 2015, the dynamics within the Iraqi oil sector are key to understanding the global oil market rebalancing process. This comment argues that even though the impressive run of growth has continued into 2016, the prospects are far less positive as we head into 2017, as decline rates will assert themselves amid lower levels of investment and upstream activity. In the medium term, political instability, severe fiscal pressures, and serious delays in key infrastructure projects will constrain Iraq’s output growth.
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                    [post_content] => The political turmoil that has swept across many parts of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) since the beginning of the Arab Spring in December 2010 and the tightening of international sanctions against Iran in 2012 have reignited the recurring debate about energy security and the reliability of MENA as an energy supplier. In this paper, we examine the impact of the past three years of political turmoil in MENA on oil and gas markets. We argue that although many disruptions did occur and oil prices did rise, especially following the Libyan revolution in 2011 and when fears of a potential military confrontation between Iran and the USA intensified in early 2012, the short-term effects on oil and gas markets of recent events in the region have been less dramatic than originally feared. The Arab Spring did not destabilize the large Gulf oil and gas producers; the rise in oil price induced by political and geopolitical factors proved to be transient; and oil and gas markets have shown relative resilience in filling the supply gap and in redirecting oil and gas trade flows. Beyond the immediate impact of the past three years of political turmoil in the MENA, however, we argue that it is the more subtle, long-term effects of regional political instability and international sanctions that are likely to leave the most lasting mark on regional oil and gas markets. Potential repercussions are likely to be felt through several years of an unstable regulatory and investment environment, policy uncertainty, deteriorating security, and a lack of much needed energy pricing reform that will impact the long-term production and export capacity of various MENA oil and gas producers, including some of those unaffected directly by the Arab Spring and sanctions.
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Latest Publications by Richard Mallinson

Latest Tweets from @OxfordEnergy

  • B Fattouh on Saudi oil consumption: High growth rates of consumption & crude burn seen in past decades are behind us https://t.co/UhB2IpQSpt

    May 25th

  • 0IES' @thierry_bros to speak at the Africa Energy Forum #AEF17 on 7 June in Copenhagen https://t.co/YvSXBH3Sn6

    May 24th

  • Tough market conditions for new final investment decision in FLNG. @thierry_bros quoted in @LesEchos https://t.co/vPAGy9qYKW

    May 24th

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