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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast, from the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Anouk Honore and Jack Sharples about their contributions to the latest Gas Quarterly, published in early April 2024. They discuss the evolution of gas prices over the winter of 2023/24 and the key factors driving a relatively benign market outcome. Relatively soft demand, caused by warm weather and slow economic growth, more than offset the impact of a number of geopolitical events that might otherwise have caused significant price spikes. In particular, we examine the demand trends in Europe and discuss whether there is any expectation of a rebound in 2024, while also considering demand in Asia and the outlook for both pipeline and LNG supplies in the coming 12 months. We also look at the level of storage in Europe and the prospects for the summer injection season, while considering the implications of a potential end to gas transit through Ukraine as its contract with Russia expires at the end of December 2024.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Quarterly Gas Review
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[post_content] => In this latest podcast from the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Vitaly Yermakov about his March report ‘Follow the Money: Understanding Russia’s oil and gas revenues’ which tracks hydrocarbon export revenues and the significant part they play in public finances. Russia’s oil and gas revenues have proven volatile in recent years – on top of commodity price cyclicality, western sanctions post-Ukraine have forced Russia to develop new outlets for oil and gas exports. While the Ministry of Finance has continued to publish revenue data, a lot of the other data sets relating to the industry have been suspended. This has made these data critical to understanding Moscow’s approach towards oil and gas taxes and its broader economic strategy under the pressures of the Ukraine war and western sanctions.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Follow the Money: Understanding Russia’s oil and gas revenues
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[post_content] => The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2025, is now available.
- Tighter-than-expected balances compounded by heightened geopolitical risks have prompted us to raise our Brent price forecast by $2.5/b to $85.4/b in 2024 and by $1.6/b to $81.0/b in 2025. Our Brent price forecast revisions this month largely reflect an improving global oil demand outlook on the back of a resilient global economy, as geopolitical risks rise and become more pressing. We have now raised our 2Q24 price forecast to $90/b from $81.4/b, with H2 prices falling back to the mid-$80s assuming no further extension of the OPEC+ cuts in Q3. At the time of writing, the consequences of Iran’s direct retaliatory attack against Israel remain unknown, but they do add a new layer of uncertainty to this month’s outlook. For now, the price band in 2024 ranges between $74/b and $99/b, with the upper limit rising by $7.6/b since last month.
- We have deepened the previously projected oil market deficit in 2024 by 160 kb/d to -560 kb/d and lowered the expected surplus in 2025 by -180 kb/d to 210 kb/d. The resilience of global oil demand in 1Q24 while global supply was subdued has prompted us to deepen the deficit in the first quarter to -1 mb/d followed by -1.3 mb/d in Q2. Assuming a gradual reversal of the OPEC+ voluntary cuts in 3Q24, we forecast the market to flip into a small 100 kb/d surplus before returning close to balance in Q4. For 2025 as a whole, we reduced the previously projected surplus by 180 kb/d on the back of a more robust global demand outlook.
- We have raised our global demand growth forecast by 180 kb/d to 1.6 mb/d in 2024 and by 90 kb/d to 1.2 mb/d in 2025. Our improved forecast for 2024 largely reflects a more resilient OECD demand outlook, led by the US, up by 140 kb/d to 170 kb/d. The gains to the OECD outlook for this year carry over to 2025 with small upgrades lifting our previous forecast by 80 kb/d to 75 kb/d. The non-OECD demand growth outlook remains relatively unchanged at 1.5 mb/d in 2024 and 1.1 mb/d in 2025.
- Our global oil supply forecast is little changed, up by 60 kb/d to 1 mb/d in 2024 and by 70 kb/d to 2 mb/d in 2025. Heading into 2Q24, OPEC+ is set to extend its 1.7 mb/d voluntary cuts with the forecast assuming stronger output discipline by the group. Russia will also enforce a progressive voluntary production cut that will see its output falling to 8.98 mb/d by June and lifting the total OPEC+ voluntary cuts in Q2 to 2.2 mb/d. Outside OPEC+, non-OPEC crude is forecast to grow by 810 kb/d, unchanged from last month, with the Americas remaining this year’s mainstay of expansion led by the US, Brazil, Guyana and Canada.
To purchase your copy of Issue 33 please click here.
Sponsors, Benefactors and Press please email Andreas Economou for a copy.
[post_title] => OIES Oil Monthly - Issue 33
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[post_content] => In this latest podcast from the China programme, Michal Meidan talks to Kevin Tu about the outlook for China’s coal chemicals industry in an increasingly carbon constrained world. Drawing on Kevin’s paper 'Prospects of the Chinese coal chemical industry in an increasingly carbon-constrained world', they discuss the political and economic importance of the sector in China. Kevin discusses the layout of China’s coal chemicals industry and how a growing emphasis on energy security is supporting its growth. In addition, a focus by local governments on investments, especially in the post pandemic recovery, is further sustaining the sector. But the coal chemical industry in China is plagued by overcapacity and, in the context of the country’s dual carbon goals of peaking national carbon emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060, it will become harder to sustain. Technological innovation and adaptation is one way forward, but post-2030, the outlook is increasingly challenging. Kevin and Michal discuss these opposing trends and how they are likely to play out.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Prospects of the Chinese coal chemical industry
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast Hasan Muslemani talks to Frank Felder about his forthcoming OIES paper ‘The Challenges of Incorporating Consumer Reliability Preferences in Electricity Markets with a Capacity Requirement’. Power outages and major blackouts are widespread, affecting hundreds of millions globally. One way to improve reliability and reduce costs is to have more customers adjust their electricity consumption based on system conditions, but demand response needs to be developed faster. A market-based way for consumers to do so may help, combined with technological advances in smart meters and load control devices. The podcast explains how to incorporate different customer reliability preferences in power systems or markets that have resource adequacy/capacity requirements. It also explains how allowing customers to opt out of such requirements while ensuring they will be disconnected during shortages is the first step in incorporating reliability and resiliency preferences and this can become more customer-specific and tailored over time.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Consumer reliability preferences in electricity markets with a capacity requirement
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Ahmed Mehdi about his latest paper "Lithium price volatility: where next for the market?". They start by discussing the importance of lithium for the energy transition and the different uses and chemistries that are involved in the global cathode market. They then move on to assess recent price movements, which have seen the lithium price fall sharply from historic highs in 2022. They consider the shifts in demand that are being driven by EV sales and have a particular focus on the Chinese market, where the influence of supply and demand issues is very strong. They also look at the emerging new sources of supply that are affecting the global balance and consider what price is needed to support future investment. They also discuss the various forms of contract and spot price mechanisms that are being developed and consider how the market might move towards maturity over the next few years.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - The outlook for lithium markets and prices
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[post_content] => In this podcast from the China Energy Programme, OIES China Programme Director Michal Meidan and OIES Senior Research Fellow Anders Hove discuss the takeaways from China’s Two Sessions, a series of important government meetings that assess progress and lay out plans for the coming year. The discussion centres on the outlook for the economy in light of the lack of a major stimulus, whether oil and gas demand will hold up in a time of slower growth, and whether strategies for development in the ‘Three New’ sectors of the economy (EVs, solar, batteries) can succeed given price wars and overcapacity in these fields. The two also debate whether the Two Sessions showed any signs of a ‘pendulum swing’ towards environmental policy, given the apparent abandonment of the energy intensity target and switch to a softer fossil fuel intensity target.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - China's Two Sessions
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[post_content] => In this podcast, Hasan Muslemani speaks to Malek Al-Chalabi at Shell about some key issues in carbon markets, reflecting on the outcomes of COP28 including developments around Article 6, and an outlook for the future. The podcast specifically highlights the role that carbon pricing plays in reaching net-zero, how it fits within broader policy frameworks, and the increasing importance of carbon removal solutions within carbon markets.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Carbon Markets and Carbon Dioxide Removal
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[post_content] => In this podcast, Hasan Muslemani speaks to Andrea Bonzanni and Antoine Diemert at IETA about the evolution of the voluntary carbon market (VCM) and its outlook in 2024 and beyond. The podcast discusses the VCM’s role as a climate financing tool, how it operates in practice, its evolving ecosystem and key achievements to date. Guests also shed light on the criticisms that the market has faced in the media lately, how key players are responding and the impact of broader climate regulatory developments on the VCM.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Voluntary Carbon Markets in 2024
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[post_content] => The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2025, is now available.
- Extended OPEC+ cuts and robust non-OECD demand have prompted a rise in our Brent price forecast in 2024 to $82.9/b from $82.1/b, while the 2025 view is steady at $79.4/b. Downside revisions to our supply forecast in 2Q24 reflecting the extension of the additional OPEC+ cuts and extra crude production cut from Russia, combined by robust demand mainly from non-OECD countries, flipped a balanced market into deficit this year, supporting a higher 2024 Brent price forecast. To the extent that stocks remain under pressure in 2024, we expect Brent to rise to the mid-to-high $80s in Q4.
- The extension of the additional OPEC+ voluntary cuts in Q2 and new production cut pledge from Russia in the same period flipped the oil market balance into a 400 kb/d deficit in 2024, from a previously anticipated balanced year. We now forecast the market remaining in a 1.3 mb/d deficit in Q2, following a 380 kb/d deficit in Q1. In H2, the market is expected to hold near balance building a marginal 40 kb/d surplus before moving to a 390 kb/d surplus in 2025, unchanged from last month’s forecast. Accordingly, OECD commercial stocks are unlikely to build significantly this year.
- Our forecast for global oil demand remains unchanged at 1.5 mb/d in 2024 and 1.1 mb/d in 2025. A strong start to the year in the non-OECD, particularly India and China, offset weakness to the OECD demand growth outlook, which remains flat for the year as a whole. Non-OECD demand is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d, albeit growth is expected to soften slightly in H2 but to remain solid. Diesel/gasoil demand in 2024 is scaled back, remaining the smallest growth contributor among key fuels in the product mix.
- We have lowered our global supply growth forecast by 360 kb/d to 930 kb/d in 2024 but upgraded supply growth by 390 kb/d to 1.9 mb/d in 2025. Our forecast downgrade for 2024 reflects the extension of the additional OPEC+ cuts of 1.7 mb/d in Q2 and the pledged 470 kb/d cut from Russia, on top of its current 500 kb/d voluntary cut. Russia will progressively target reduced supply in April-June. Accordingly, OPEC crude growth in 2024 is downgraded by 420 kb/d to -170 kb/d from 250 kb/d forecast last month. Non-OPEC crude growth is downgraded by 100 kb/d to 830 kb/d in 2024, with forecast revisions extending beyond non-OPEC+, most notably to the US crude growth outlook that is revised lower by 120 kb/d to 360 kb/d. This is offset by small improvements in non-OPEC liquids supply elsewhere.
To purchase your copy of Issue 32 please click here.
Sponsors, Benefactors and Press please email Andreas Economou for a copy.
[post_title] => OIES Oil Monthly - Issue 32
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[post_content] => In this podcast from the China Energy Programme, Anders Hove talks to OIES Senior Research Fellow Philip Andrews-Speed about his two papers for the recent Oxford Energy Forum on nuclear power entitled “The role of nuclear power in China’s energy security and low-carbon energy transition” and “Will Russian and Chinese nuclear reactor exports assist in the low-carbon transition?”. China has the world’s fastest growing fleet of civil nuclear reactors and will probably have the largest installed capacity by 2030. In this podcast, Hove and Andrews-Speed discuss the rationale for this rapid growth and the challenges involved in governing such a large and ambitious programme. They also assess the extent to which nuclear power will contribute to China’s low-carbon energy transition. They also discuss the differences between the Russian and Chinese nuclear export programmes and whether they will make a significant difference to global emissions reduction.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Nuclear energy and China
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast, from the Energy Transition Programme, James Henderson talks to Adnan Shihab-Eldin about the future of nuclear energy and the role that small modular reactors can play. The conclusions of COP28 were relatively positive of nuclear energy, including it as a key component of the energy transition for the first time, but despite this the high cost and timescales of major projects remain a problem for many countries. In this podcast we discuss the potential for small modular reactors to increase availability of nuclear technology to a wider audience of developed and developing countries. We address the economics of SMRs compared to large scale nuclear plants, but also look at safety and security issues and the critical question of how to manage radioactive waste generated from a larger community of reactors. Finally we also look at the potential new business opportunities in this area. The podcast is based on the latest Oxford Energy Forum on the future of nuclear energy.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - The Outlook for Nuclear Energy and Small Modular Reactors
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast, from the Energy Transition Programme, James Henderson talks to Sara Vakhshouri about the new edition of the Oxford Energy Forum which includes a series of essays on the role of nuclear power in the energy transition. We discuss some of the key issues in the nuclear fuel cycle, including the dominance of Russia and China in many aspects of mining, fuel production and nuclear technology export and consider the efforts being made to diversify away from dependence on Russia in particular since the start of the war in Ukraine. The development of small modular reactors, the issue of fuel waste disposal, the emerging role of nuclear in a number of developing countries and the boost to nuclear provided by COP 28 are all reviewed, and Sara also summarises her essay on the intersection between nuclear energy and medicine and underlines how dependent the world is on Russia for the supply of critical isotopes used in many medical practices.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Nuclear Energy in the Global Energy Landscape
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[post_content] => Following the Russia-Ukraine war, the issue of energy security has once again surged to the forefront of global discussions. The disruption and threats to global energy security caused by the war have starkly exposed the vulnerability of energy supply chains, accentuating the pressing need for robust and secure energy sources. In this context, different countries, notably in the European Union, have emphasized the pivotal role of nuclear power generation in addressing these concerns and ensuring energy security. The recently signed global stocktake agreement at COP28 also emphasizes the significance of nuclear energy in the broader context of the energy transition and the acceleration of zero- and low-emission technologies
As we find ourselves at the vanguard of an unprecedented energy transition towards sustainable, low-carbon, and environmentally responsible energy supplies, nuclear power emerges as a compelling solution to the energy trilemma. Nevertheless, expanding the role of nuclear energy is far from straightforward, characterized by intricate challenges spanning economic viability, cost-effectiveness, fuel supply dynamics, evolving technologies, regulatory frameworks, public acceptance, and the intricate geopolitics intertwined with the expanding role of nuclear energy.
This issue of the Oxford Energy Forum explores nuclear energy’s multifaceted role along four key themes:
- The cases for and against nuclear power : The initial section presents articles that provide compelling arguments both for and against nuclear power generation, facilitating a balanced discourse on its merits and limitations.
- Technological advancements in nuclear energy: This section delves into the latest technological advancements in the field of nuclear energy including SMRs and nuclear fusion, shedding light on innovations poised to enhance safety and efficiency.
- Country and regional experiences: The third section casts a discerning eye on the geographical expansion of nuclear energy, examining its adoption across various regions and the unique challenges and opportunities presented by this global diversification.
- Geopolitics of nuclear energy and medical isotopes: The final section delves into the geopolitics of nuclear energy and recognizes the interconnectedness between the growth of the nuclear industry and the geopolitics of nuclear medical isotopes.
[post_title] => Nuclear energy in the global energy landscape: advancing sustainability and ensuring energy security? - Issue 139
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[post_content] => The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, introducing our first oil market outlook for 2025, is now available.
- Our Brent price forecast stands at $82.1/b in 2024, from $82.6/b in 2023, falling to $79.1/b in 2025. We continue to forecast a balanced market this year prompting us to maintain our Brent price forecast unchanged at $82.1/b, tracking within the $75-85/b range. For 2025, our first Brent price forecast stands at $79.1/b, with prices after Q1 falling back to the $75-80/b range as the supply/demand balance loosens. Price risks to the outlook are skewed to the downside in 2024, but the balance of risks shifts to the upside in 2025.
- The oil market is forecast near balance in 2024, before building to a 370 kb/d surplus in 2025. In 1Q24, we project an 840 kb/d deficit with crude stocks falling sharply in the first quarter of the year. Assuming the gradual return of the withheld 1.7 mb/d in voluntary OPEC+ cuts in 2Q24, we forecast the market flipping into surplus in 2Q24 and 3Q24. However, the projected surpluses beyond 1Q24 are conditional on OPEC+ output policy, as an extension of the additional voluntary cuts in 2Q24 alone could push the oil market into a 460 kb/d deficit for the full year. By the same token, OPEC+ output policy beyond December 2024 will shape balances in 2025, which currently register surpluses in all quarters.
- Global oil demand is forecast to grow 1.5 mb/d in 2024, 75 kb/d higher than our previous forecast, and 1.1 mb/d in 2025. Our improved forecast in 2024 reflects small upgrades in the non-OECD outlook which is lifted to 1.5 mb/d, mainly due to China and India, while OECD demand growth falters. These regional dynamics are forecast to continue in 2025, with non-OECD demand growth softening to 1.1 mb/d and OECD demand contracting by 50 kb/d. In terms of products, transport fuel demand slows near 2010-2019 levels in both years at around 1 mb/d, while petchems demand growth strengthens above the historical average, led by naphtha.
- Global oil supply is forecast to grow 1.3 mb/d in 2024, unchanged from our previous forecast, and 1.5 mb/d in 2025. Non-OPEC crude growth is forecast to slow to 930 kb/d in 2024 led by the US and Brazil, from 1.6 mb/d in 2023. OPEC crude growth is confined only within the exempt OPEC-3 accounting for 240 kb/d of the total, having registered 670 kb/d of growth last year. For 2025, we forecast a further slowdown of non-OPEC crude growth to 610 kb/d and OPEC growth of 680 kb/d. Uncertainty over supply is elevated in both years amid uncertainty over OPEC+ cuts and as geopolitical risks rise.
To purchase your copy of Issue 31 please click here.
Sponsors, Benefactors and Press please email Andreas Economou for a copy.
[post_title] => OIES Oil Monthly - Issue 31
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[post_content] => In the latest OIES podcast, from the Hydrogen Programme, James Henderson talks to Abdurahman Alsulaiman about his latest paper entitled “Navigating Turbulence: Hydrogen’s Role in the Decarbonisation of the Aviation Sector.” In the podcast we discuss the current balance of fuels in the aviation sector, the importance of increasing efficiency of aero-engines and the impact of increasing passenger miles travelled. The podcast then considers different decarbonisation options for the sector, focussing on a change of engine technology to allow the use of alternative fuels such as hydrogen or electricity but also looking at the potential for hydrogen to play an important role in the development of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) for use with current engine technology. We also look at Low Carbon Aviation Fuels which are essentially existing fuels derived from a significantly decarbonised supply chain and assess whether they have an important role to play as the aviation sector targets a net zero outcome.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Aviation fuels and the potential of hydrogen
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples about the recent decision by the US government to pause the approval of new LNG export contracts to non-FTA countries. This decision has taken the gas market by surprise as it implies the delay of new LNG export projects that do not already have approval. In the podcast we discuss the drivers behind the US decision, ask how long the pause may last, outline the likely projects that will be affected and the potential consequences for US LNG export volumes. We also assess the reaction of consumers in Europe and Asia, and consider what the decision could mean for perception of security of supply and the long-term role of gas in the energy transition. In addition, we put the role of US LNG in context in the European market in particular and discuss the short- and medium-term implications for gas trade, given the other pressures resulting from military action in the Red Sea and the drought-related reduction of shipping through the Panama Canal.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - What next for US LNG?
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Jack Sharples and Mike Fulwood about the effect that military action in the Red Sea is having on the global gas market. They review the recent traffic of LNG vessels in the area prior to the firing of missiles by the Houthi rebels and the air strikes launched in response by the US and UK, before moving on the discuss how journeys have been adjusted in response. They look at the consequences for journey times, transport costs and tanker availability, and also consider the additional impact of the drought in Panama that has led to restrictions on traffic through the Panama Canal. Finally they discuss the limited impact of these disruptions on prices in Europe and Asia to date, reflecting on the fact that benign gas market conditions in terms of warm weather, limited economic growth, high storage levels in Europe and plentiful supply flexibility have outweighed the need to divert LNG traffic away from the Red Sea.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - The impact of military action in the Red Sea on global gas market
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Bill Farren-Price, the new Head of the Gas Programme, about some of Key Themes identified by OIES research fellows for 2024. After a review of the outcomes from 2023, we look at the oil and gas markets and discuss a common theme around the contrast between the fundamental tightness in both markets compared with the relative softness of prices. We then move onto a number of energy transition issues, starting with some of the key actions from COP28 that need to be implemented in 2024 and following with a review of the outlook for carbon markets, hydrogen developments and offshore wind. We also consider the impact of emerging competition between regions over green industrial policy. Finally, we consider some of the key geopolitical drivers for 2024, with the influence of China being the most critical. However, in an election year for so many countries it will be critical to follow the key policy announcements of the main candidates and, of most critically, the outcome of the US election in November.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Key Energy Themes for 2024
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[post_content] => This year’s key themes outlook focuses heavily on the resilience of hydrocarbon markets in the face of disruptions of many kinds; how sustainability and energy transition are becoming a strategic political objective that reaches well beyond the energy economy; and the technology elements of that transition where we see significant movement in the next 12 months. In an ever more uncertain world, energy policy increasingly finds itself on the front line of election politics – significant in one of the densest election cycles for years. There is an abundance of moving parts in global energy economy and this report discusses those key elements – as seen through the lens of the energy trilemma, or even dilemma which we argue is evolving in 2024.
[post_title] => Key Themes for the Global Energy Economy in 2024
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[post_content] => In this podcast, OIES China Energy Programme Director Michal Meidan is joined by Senior Research Fellows Anders Hove and Philip Andrews-Speed to discuss what the new year will bring to China’s energy policies and markets. In 2023, despite concerns about the real estate sector and consumer confidence, energy demand was strong. Will this be the case in 2024? Michal, Anders and Philip discuss the outlook for energy given economic growth numbers, whether the low-carbon transition is still on track, and how trade and diplomatic tensions are affecting energy policy and markets. They discuss the recent trends in oil and gas production, the potential for a slowdown in renewables after the record-breaking 2023 installations, new nuclear plant approvals, and the ongoing expansion of domestic new energy vehicles sales. On trade, they also look at China’s recent critical minerals restrictions and how the new foreign entities of concern (FEOC) rules could impact China.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - China Outlook for 2024: A year of contradictions
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[post_date] => 2023-12-21 09:40:06
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Energy Transition Programme, David Ledesma talks to James Henderson about his thoughts ion the outcomes of COP 28. The podcast starts with an overview of the key objectives of the COP before discussing some of the main achievements, debates and disappointments of the event. From the agreement over the Loss & Damage Fund on Day 1 through the increased involvement of oil and gas companies and the future of fossil fuels to the debates about climate finance the conversation ranges across the entire spectrum of the COP agenda. It also includes thoughts on the continued focus on methane emissions, the failure to reach any significant agreements on carbon markets, the debate about the role of the World Bank and the problems with setting goals for adaptation, before finally outlining some of the key challenges ahead and the likely topics for debate at COP 29 in Baku.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Review of COP28
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[post_content] => The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2024, is now available.
– We have reduced our Brent forecast $0.8/b to $82.6/b in 2023 and $1.8/b to $82.3/b in 2024, from $83.4/b and $84.1/b forecast last month. We have lowered our Brent price outlook in 4Q23 by $3.2/b to $84/b from $87.3/b previously, as expectations of a large deficit in 4Q23 moderated due to a robust non-OPEC supply performance. For 2024, the price outlook is pushed lower by $1.8/b to $82.3/b with Brent prices expected to rebound to $83.3/b in Q1 supported by the deeper OPEC+ cuts but to remain confined in the $80s in the following two quarters. Overall, we expect Brent’s $75-85/b range seen in 2023 to hold into next year.
– The extension and deepening of OPEC+ voluntary cuts in 1Q24 have pushed balances into a deficit, prompting us to project a 350 kb/d deficit in Q1 versus last month’s 670 kb/d surplus. The oil market is now forecast near balance in 2024 at a small 130 kb/d deficit, from a 570 kb/d surplus forecast previously. Assuming a gradual phase-out of the 1.7 mb/d OPEC+ cuts in Q2, we forecast the oil market to remain in a 230 kb/d deficit in Q2, before progressively returning near balance in Q3 and building to a small 100 kb/d surplus in Q4. This implies that OECD commercial stocks will be capped in the year ahead.
– We have raised our global oil demand growth forecast 220 kb/d to 1.4 mb/d in 2024, after 2.1 mb/d this year. Our improved forecast reflects the easing of downside risks to the growth outlook, with forecast gains mainly concentrated in non-OECD. Overall, despite global demand growth forecast to slow in 2024, this will still amount to non-OECD demand growth normalizing to the 2010-19 average (1.4 mb/d), while OECD growth falls short and drags global demand growth 140 kb/d below the pre-COVID historical average.
– Global oil supply is forecast to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2024 from 1.5 mb/d in 2023, 500 kb/d lower than our previous forecast. The 2024 downgrade reflects the extension and deepening of OPEC+ voluntary cuts in 1Q24, prompting us to lower OPEC-10 crude production growth by 560 kb/d to -210 kb/d. The non-OPEC crude supply growth outlook is little changed at 940 kb/d, with forecast US and Brazil gains offsetting downgrades elsewhere.
– The balance of risks is skewed to the upside from Q2. Risks to the reference price forecast are tilted to the downside at the start of 2024 dominated by negative demand pressures and/or patchy OPEC+ compliance, but upside potential returns from Q2 onwards on central banks and OPEC+ potential policy actions.
To purchase your copy of Issue 30 please click here.
Sponsors, Benefactors and Press please email Andreas Economou for a copy.
[post_title] => OIES Oil Monthly – Issue 30
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[post_content] => In this OIES podcast, David Ledesma talks to Maria Olczak about the decarbonisaton of international maritime transport. Maria discusses the current and projected greenhouse gas emissions trends, major challenges regarding decarbonisation and policy developments in the EU (extension of the EU Emissions Trading System to maritime transport) and at the International Maritime Organisation level (new GHG strategy and carbon pricing). She also reflects on how these new policies can affect the shipping industry, the role of LNG and methane mitigation in the EU.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Wind of change for maritime transport
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood, Anouk Honore and Jack Sharples about their latest Energy Insight on the prospects for the gas market over the next 4-6 months. After an initial review of current price trends, the podcast then covers flows of pipeline gas and LNG to Europe, with a particular focus on imports from Norway and LNG send out volumes, before discussing global LNG supply and the prospects for LNG demand in Asia. We then look in some detail at demand in Europe, covering the power, industrial and residential & commercial sectors and considering the key trends for 2024. The discussion then turns to the current state of storage in Europe and reviews some scenarios for winter 2023/34. Considering where stock levels cold reach by the end of March next year and the consequences for gas prices through 2024. We end with some thoughts on the key risks to our base case scenario and the overall conclusion that although the global gas market is relatively calm for now, it remains on a knife edge and leaves no room for complacency.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - The Winter Outlook for Gas Markets
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[post_content] => On 8 August 2023, the OIES China Programme published an issue of the Oxford Energy Forum on the geopolitics of energy and China. This podcast is part of a series drawing on the rich OEF contributions. The aim of the Forum was to think about China’s role in the geopolitics of energy – both fossil fuels and new energy supply chains, both from China’s perspective and the view from other regions around the world.
In this two-part episode, the sixth and final in the series, we discuss China’s energy transition and its complex relationship with Africa and then the US. The guest of our first segment is Dan Marks of RUSI, who wrote about ‘The Normalization of Chinese Infrastructure Lending in Africa’. The second segment about the US is with Jane Nakano of CSIS, whose contribution is entitled US-China Relations and the Global Energy Transition. Both are available in the Oxford Energy Forum.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - The geopolitics of energy and China, episode 6: Africa and the US
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[post_content] => The May 2021 edition of the Oxford Energy Forum covered the role of hydrogen in the energy transition in some detail, starting from an observation that the decarbonized energy system was expected to see an increase in the share of electricity in final consumption rising from its current 20 per cent to around 50 per cent by 2050. If anything, in the intervening 18 months, the perceived role of electricity has strengthened further, with advances in battery technology and rapid uptake of electric vehicles, such that the 2023 update to the International Energy Agency’s Net Zero scenario sees the share of electricity in final consumption at 53 per cent, up slightly from the 49 per cent in the 2021 edition. There has been a corresponding slight reduction in the envisaged role of hydrogen, now seen to be at 8 per cent of final consumption by 2050, compared to a projection of 10 per cent previously. While such projections more than 25 years ahead are extremely uncertain, it remains clear that there will be several hard-to-abate sectors which are not suitable for electrification and where other decarbonization solutions will be required.
Hydrogen remains a key technology for such sectors along with other carbon management activities, such as the deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, whether that be from industrial emission sources or to drive carbon removals compensating either for historic emissions or those which cannot otherwise be avoided. In January 2022, OIES published an edition of the Forum examining trends in CCS and exploring the regulatory and commercial barriers limiting the deployment of CCS at large, including regional and country experiences, and the increasing role of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies in net-zero paths. In June 2022, this was followed by an issue of the Forum focused on carbon markets, evaluating global trends in compliance and voluntary market developments, including the role of complementary mechanisms such as carbon border adjustments.
As part of its increasing focus on the energy transition, the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies established two additional research programmes in 2022, one on carbon management and one on hydrogen. For this edition of the Forum, it is therefore timely for these two programmes to come together to consider how carbon management and hydrogen can play a role in decarbonization of the energy system.
[post_title] => Carbon Management and Hydrogen: Potential solutions for hard-to-decarbonise sectors - Issue 138
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[post_content] => In this podcast David Ledesma talks to Aliaksei Patonia and Veronika Lenivova about Hydrogen pipelines and high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission lines and how Hydrogen pipelines offer the advantage of transporting larger energy volumes, but existing projects are dwarfed by the vast networks of HVDC transmission lines. The podcast discusses how advocates for hydrogen pipelines see potential in expanding these networks, capitalizing on hydrogen’s physical similarities to natural gas and the potential for cost savings. However, hydrogen’s unique characteristics, such as its small molecular size and compression requirements, present construction challenges. On the other hand, HVDC lines, while less voluminous, excel in efficiently transmitting green electrons over long distances. They already form an extensive global network, and their efficiency makes them suitable for various applications. Yet, intermittent renewable energy sources pose challenges for both hydrogen and electricity systems, necessitating solutions like storage and blending.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Hydrogen pipelines vs. HVDC lines
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[post_content] => In this OIES podcast, Michal Meidan talks to James Henderson and Anders Hove about the upcoming COP in Dubai, which is taking place from 30 November to 12 December. James discusses some of the key themes that will dominate the conversation at COP 28, which he also highlighted in his latest comment including the Global Stocktake (GST), the future of hydrocarbons and the phasing out of unabated fossil fuels, decarbonisation technologies and funding. Anders highlights China’s position in the upcoming COP, in relation to the GST, loss and damages as well as hydrocarbons. He discusses the successes that China will bring to the table, related to its vast additions of renewables which are set to exceed the country’s 2030 pledge, but also the challenges associated with the coal build out. Anders and James also discuss methane emissions, multilateral efforts and the impact of geopolitics as well as of the thaw in US-China relations on COP 28.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Key issues ahead of COP28
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast, produced by the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Klaus-Dieter Borchardt about his latest paper “Carbon Capture and Storage: the new driver of the EU decarbonization plan?”, which was published in mid-October 2023. The podcasts starts with a review of the EU’s attitude towards CCUS over the past 5 years, before moving on to discuss the drivers behind a new interest in developing a CCUS strategy and a review of the key sectors where it will be targeted. We look at the key policies and regulations that are being framed, talk about the key infrastructure issues that are being debated and analyse the means of financing that the EU is putting in place. We also consider the role that member states will be expected to play in the development of a regional CCUS plan, and discuss what this means for the EU’s role at COP28 as it looks to recover its position as a leader in the global energy transition.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - The EU’s CCUS Strategy
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[post_date] => 2023-11-16 11:39:00
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[post_content] => In this OIES podcast, Hasan Muslemani talks to Hannah Hauman, Global Head of Carbon Trading at Trafigura, who is lead author on their latest publication entitled ‘The creation of a global carbon market: A taxonomy of carbon pricing under Article 6’. They discuss key pillars of carbon markets including different forms of carbon pricing mechanisms, the various buyers in carbon markets, and what determines the specification of a given carbon pricing mechanism, including sectors covered under its umbrella, natural ecosystems which exist within its jurisdiction, and the target carbon price, amongst other factors. The podcast also covers different types of carbon units, discussing their core specifications and how they differ in scale and cost. Hannah concludes that while Article 6 of the Paris Agreement may add to stratification in carbon markets, it forms a solid foundation from which voluntary and regulated carbon markets can look to and import from.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - A Taxonomy of Carbon Pricing
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[post_content] => The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2024, is now available.
- We have reduced our 2023 Brent forecast $1.8/b to $83.4/b in 2023 and $2.5/b to $84.1/b in 2024, from $85.3/b and $86.6/b forecast last month. Brent in October reversed the 9% hike from September falling to $91.1/b from $94.0/b (-3% m/m), before extending its losses in the w/c Nov. 6 to $81.6/b. This is the lowest since July with large liquidation of long positions in paper markets amplifying the downside. In 2024, the price outlook is pushed lower by $2.5/b keeping Brent prices pinned in the $80-90/b range, conditional to no-change in OPEC+ output policy for 2024 after the upcoming Ministerial Meeting on Nov. 26.
- The oil market balance is forecast at a surplus in both 2023 and 2024 at 160 kb/d and 590 kb/d respectively. We have lowered the 4Q23 deficit by 770 kb/d to -410 kb/d, from -1.2 mb/d forecast last month, on weaker OECD demand amplified by base adjustments in historical US demand data confronted by higher-than-expected OPEC+ supplies. For 2024, the oil market is now expected to flip into surpluses from Q1-onwards, as global supply grows at a similar rate to this year while global demand growth softens. OECD stocks are projected to build closer to their 5-year average in 2024 and break above the average by year-end.
- Our forecast for global oil demand growth remains unchanged at 2 mb/d in 2023 and 1.2 mb/d in 2024. We have scaled back global demand growth by 260 kb/d to 1.6 mb/d in 4Q23 and by 360 kb/d to 1.2 mb/d in 1Q24 with the downgrades concentrated in the OECD, offsetting last month’s upgrades to the non-OECD outlook in the same period that remains relatively unchanged. For 2024, non-OECD demand growth is still expected to soften to 1.2 mb/d from 1.9 mb/d in 2023 as rebound effects fade.
- We have raised our global supply growth outlook in both 2023 and 2024 to 1.6 mb/d, 120 kb/d and 130 kb/d above last month’s forecast. Higher-than-anticipated OPEC+ output confronted by resilient US production has prompted us to raise our global supply growth outlook by 270 kb/d to 130 kb/d in 4Q23 and by 220 kb/d to 420 kb/d in 1Q24, followed by small upgrades in 2024, mainly for Venezuela, Kazakhstan and Russia.
- The balance of risks tilts to the upside in 4Q23 on geopolitics, but price risks move closer to balance again in 2024. Geopolitical pressures around the Israel conflict and a rise in precautionary demand, have lifted the balance of price risks in the near-term, before shifting again near balance in 2024.
To purchase your copy of Issue 29 please click here.
Sponsors, Benefactors and Press please email Andreas Economou for a copy.
[post_title] => OIES Oil Monthly - Issue 29
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[post_content] => On 8 August 2023, the OIES China Programme published an issue of the Oxford Energy Forum on the geopolitics of energy and China. This podcast is part of a series drawing on the rich OEF contributions. The aim of the Forum was to think about China’s role in the geopolitics of energy – both fossil fuels and new energy supply chains, both from China’s perspective and the view from other regions around the world.
In this episode, the fifth in the series, we discuss the topics of finance and carbon prices. Our two guests are Chen Ji, Executive Director at the China International Capital Corporation (CICC) Global Institute, and Yan Qin, Lead Carbon Analyst, at Refinitiv, and also Research Associate, at OIES. Chen Ji is author of ‘Financing the Net-zero Transition for Developing Countries: China’s Dilemma in a Fragmenting World. Yan Qin is the author of ‘The Impacts of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on China’s Supply Chain and China’s Response’. Both articles are available in the Oxford Energy Forum on our website.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - The geopolitics of energy and China episode 5: Finance and carbon prices
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[post_date] => 2023-10-31 13:43:53
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples about the current state of the global gas market and the outlook for winter 2023/24 and summer 2024. After reviewing the stable state of Russian gas flows to Europe, Jack discusses the fluctuations in Norwegian flows and LNG send out in Europe, before Mike looks at global LNG supply and the recent surge in Asian gas demand, led by China and Japan. We then cover the state of European demand, which seems to have bottomed out, before considering the level of gas in storage at the start of winter and the use of storage facilities in Ukraine. We then preview the outlook for gas market over the winter, highlighting the key risks and the potential levels of gas in storage by the end of March 2024, before discussing the likely growth in gas supply next year and how this matches with our demand expectations. Finally we look at the potential levels of gas needed to refill storage next summer ahead of a possible ending of gas transit across Ukraine at the end of the year if the contract to move Russian gas is not renewed.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Gas market update
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[post_date] => 2023-10-24 11:30:18
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast, Michal Meidan and Ned Downie take stock of the Belt and Road Initiative, ten years after its launch. Ned talks about the key trends in energy and mining investments along the Belt and Road as well as the changes in sectors and geographies. Michal and Ned talk about the reasons for the shift away from oil, toward coal and now increasingly renewables as well as the learning curve for energy and mining companies in their outbound investments. They also discuss the emissions footprint of the project and how efforts to green the Belt and Road are playing out.
This episode is based on The Belt and Road Chapter in the Guide to Chinese Climate Policy 2022, which can be found here .
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Ten years of China’s Belt and Road: what are the main energy trends?
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast, David Ledesma talks to Martin Lambert, Head of the OIES Hydrogen Programme, about his latest paper “Clean Hydrogen Roadmap: is greater realism leading to more credible paths forward?”, which picks up the key themes from the Programme since it started in April 2022.
As in the paper, the key themes cover how hydrogen has to compete with other decarbonisation alternatives, the importance of government policy, the complex subject of measurement of emissions and the need to consider the end-to-end value chain. The final themes, picking up the most challenging parts of the value chain, highlight the high cost of hydrogen transport, suggesting that it should be used as locally as possible, and the limited work done so far on ways of storing hydrogen at scale. By looking back at key themes so far, the paper and podcast also define a framework for further research to be carried out under the Hydrogen Programme.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Clean Hydrogen Roadmap: Key Themes
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[post_content] => In this slightly extended OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Programme, James Henderson and Jonathan Stern reflect on 20 years of activity in the global gas market since the Gas Programme was formed by Jonathan in 2003. They discuss the impact of liberalisation in the EU gas market, which was one of the first major themes covered by the Programme, before moving onto the role of Russian gas, the increasing role of gas in Asia, the emergence of LNG as the major source of trading in the global market and the importance of the North American shale gas revolution. They also consider the role of gas in the energy transition and the importance of the new focus on methane emissions if gas is to be taken seriously in the decarbonisation of the global energy system. Finally, they reflect on the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the subsequent energy crisis and ask whether this has fundamentally changed the outlook for gas not only in Europe but across the world.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Reflecting on 20 years of the OIES Gas Programme
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[post_content] => The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2024, is now available.
- We have upgraded our 2023 Brent forecast $1.2/b to $85.3/b from $84.1/b while maintaining the 2024 forecast at $86.6/b. Market fundamentals remain tight as robust global demand growth combines with extra Saudi and Russian supply cuts that will remain in effect at least till year-end, keeping pressure on stocks for the remainder of this year and early next. This has prompted us to raise our Brent forecast for 4Q23 and 1Q24 to $94.6/b and $90.1/b respectively, before pressures ease in the remainder of next year and prices fall back in the $80-90/b range.
- We have revised the 2023 deficit down to 230 kb/d from 540 kb/d due to base adjustments, but we still project large H2 deficits of -880 kb/d in Q3 and -1.2 mb/d in Q4. For 2024, balances continue to show a marginal 50 kb/d under-supply in Q1 before gradually loosening to a 60 kb/d surplus in the remainder of the year as higher supplies catch-up with a slower paced global demand growth. OECD stocks are projected to remain under pressure well into H1 2024.
- We maintain our forecasts for global oil demand growth of 2 mb/d in 2023 and 1.2 mb/d in 2024. Our demand growth outlook for 4Q23 and 1Q24 has improved to 1.8 mb/d and 1.6 mb/d respectively, driven on improvements in the non-OECD outlook. Despite that, global demand growth is projected to moderate over the remainder of 2024 at 1.1 mb/d.
- We have raised our global supply growth forecast by 200 kb/d to 1.5 mb/d in 2023, underpinned by non-OPEC revisions, but downgraded supply growth by 210 kb/d to 1.5 mb/d in 2024. Non-OPEC crude growth is upgraded 190 kb/d to 1.4 mb/d in 2023 with the US growth of 820 kb/d accounting for the bulk of the increase. OPEC crude in 2023 is forecast to contract 540 kb/d as Saudi Arabia maintains its extra output cut at least till year-end and combined output from the exempt OPEC-3 reached its highest level since 4Q18, limiting any further potential upside. This has led us to scale back OPEC crude growth in 2024 by 190 kb/d to 430 kb/d.
- We have revised the balance of risks lower in 4Q23 amid demand side pressures, while price risks in 2024 remain skewed to the upside. Scenarios of a delayed reversal of the rate hiking cycle have prompted us to shift the 4Q23 balance of risks to the downside. But less visibility over Saudi output policy in 2024 exerts upward pressure to the balance in H1, outweighing demand pressures and shifting price risks to the upside.
To purchase your copy of Issue 28 please click here.
Sponsors, Benefactors and Press please email Andreas Economou for a copy.
[post_title] => OIES Oil Monthly - Issue 28
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[post_content] => In this podcast Anders Hove talks with Muyi Yang about the geopolitical implications of the energy transition for China in Southeast Asia, and with Mohua Mukherjee about the changing geopolitics of energy between China and India.
Yang, who is Associate Director of Clean Energy at the Asia Society Policy Institute, discusses the challenges Southeast Asia faces in transitioning away from fossil fuels, particularly in the area of finance, where the region is likely to seek support from both China and traditional sources of finance in the U.S., Europe, Australia and Japan. Yang believes that Southeast Asia’s clean energy transition provides opportunities for collaboration among countries in the region and China and the West, and he provides specific examples of multilateral cooperation in the podcast. Mukherjee, Senior Research Fellow at OIES, sees new elements of both competition and cooperation emerging between India and China, but on balance is also optimistic that the competitive aspects are manageable while the impetus for cooperation on climate diplomacy and clean energy manufacturing will spur closer relations and ultimately benefit the Indian economy and energy transition.
This podcast is the fourth in a series on China and the geopolitics of energy. Yang’s article, ‘Navigating geopolitical complexity through collective action on clean energy transition in South-East Asia,’ and Mukherjee’s article ‘Complexities in the energy sector relationship between India and China in 2023’ are available in the Oxford Energy Forum Issue 137 on our website.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast: The geopolitics of energy and China episode 4: Chinese renewable energy manufacturers’ market dilemmas
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[post_date] => 2023-10-02 11:05:44
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Manuel Calvo Diaz, the Head of Energy and Environment at the Naturgy Foundation, and Alex Barnes, a Senior Visiting Research Fellow at OIES. They discuss a recent paper written by Alex and supported by the Naturgy Foundation entitled “EU joint purchasing of gas – an assessment” which was published on 20th September 2023. During the podcast they discuss the background to the EU Joint Purchasing Mechanism, the key elements of regulation that govern it, the process by which the EU has implemented the new rules and the outcomes of the first rounds of the new bidding process. They also discuss whether EU claims that the process has been a resounding success are valid or not and ask whether the mechanism could become permanent. They also consider whether similar mechanisms could be used for other commodities, especially critical minerals, and ask what the implications might be for the EU’s liberalised markets.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - The EU’s Joint Gas Purchasing Platform
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[post_date] => 2023-09-29 11:20:56
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[post_content] => In this third episode on the geopolitics of energy and China, Anders Hove discusses China’s dominance in critical materials with Patrick Schröder, Henry Sanderson and Philip Andrews-Speed. They ask why China matters for the mining and processing of critical minerals used in new energy supply chains, how China has established itself as a key player and what this dominance could look like going forward. The podcast also touches on European and North American responses to market concentration in China and the trade-offs associated with green industrial policies around the world.
This podcast builds on contributions to the Oxford Energy Forum on the geopolitics of energy and China, published in August 2023. Patrick Schröder, Senior Research Fellow, Environment and Society Programme, Chatham House, is the author of the article ‘Europe’s Policy Responses to China’s Dominance of New Energy Supply Chains’; Henry Sanderson, Executive Editor, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence is the author of: ‘What Counts as De-Risking? The Geopolitics of Energy and China’; and Philip Andrews-Speed, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute wrote about ‘Critical Minerals for the Low-Carbon Energy Transition: Why China Matters.’ All three articles are available Oxford Energy Forum on our website.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - The geopolitics of energy and China part 3: why China matters for critical minerals.
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[post_date] => 2023-09-27 12:37:04
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[post_content] => In the second part of this podcast, Bassam Fattouh continues the discussion with David Ledesma identifying some additional dimensions of the energy transition including the rapid growth in renewables, the role of electrification as a key pillar for decarbonization, financing the energy transition and the difficulties faced by many developing in accessing capital to finance mitigation and adaptation projects, the role of financial institutions and concludes with some key features of the transition.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Navigating the Energy Transition Part 2: Renewables, Electrification, and Financing the Transition
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[post_date] => 2023-09-22 11:06:06
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast, recorded by the Gas Research Programme, James Henderson speaks to Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples about the latest developments in the global gas market. Gas prices have rebounded slightly over the summer to reach $10+/mmbtu in Europe, and a number of new developments are changing the market dynamics. In Europe, flows from Russia have been stable but flows from Norway have been interrupted by extended maintenance. In Asia, demand has been surging in a number of countries, most importantly China but also in large parts of South East Asia. Meanwhile, a threat to supply has emerged in the potential for strikes at LNG plants in Australia, which has worried the market. Despite all this, though, prices have not moved significantly higher, and indeed the level of storage stocks in Europe, which now exceeds 100bcm (over 94% of total capacity), suggests that they could weaken ahead of winter if the weather does not get colder soon. We discuss all these issues in more detail and assess the outlook for the next six months as the northern hemisphere winter approaches.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Gas market update
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[post_date] => 2023-09-18 11:10:48
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[post_content] => In this podcast, Hasan Muslemani talks to Andrew Goddard about his latest paper entitled ‘Deal or No Deal: Will the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) push Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies over the line?’. The author evaluates the unprecedented support for climate and the clean energy transition under the IRA, in particular in relation to 45Q tax credits, and examines its effectiveness in mobilizing private finance for these nascent clean technologies. The author further highlights that despite support under 45Q alleviating some of the economic risks inherent in expensive technologies such as direct air capture (DAC), other risks, including technology, cross-chain and political risks are likely to persist.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - US Inflation Reduction Act
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[post_date] => 2023-09-14 11:07:44
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[post_content] => In the first part of this podcast, Bassam Fattouh discusses with David Ledesma some key dimensions of the energy transition including the multiple objectives of energy policy, the short-run trade-offs facing policymakers, the role of hydrocarbons in the energy transition, the implications for international energy companies’ capital allocation decisions, the role of public policy in accelerating the transition, the rise of industrial policy and climate action in a more geopolitically fragmented world.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Navigating the Energy Transition Part 1: Energy Policy, the Role of Hydrocarbons, Public Policy, and the Rise of Industrial Policy
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[post_date] => 2023-09-12 11:14:20
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[post_content] => In this podcast Michal Meidan talks with Neil Beveridge and Sergey Vakulenko about the role of gas in China’s energy mix and Russia’s evolving energy ties with China.
Beveridge begins with a discussion of the weakness in China’s gas consumption in 2022 and the extent to which it will shape the future trajectory. He outlines the reasons for optimism around China’s gas demand outlook and the different sources of supply: the potential for domestic production and how buyers choose between pipeline gas and LNG. Michal and Neil also discuss the recent changes to China’s gas pricing mechanism and the role of geopolitics and commercial considerations in contracting. Vakulenko then discusses Russia’s weakness in its energy relations with China, but also why Beijing might be holding off on another large pipeline deal with Moscow. Sergey and Michal then talk about changes in the broader energy relations, how Russia and China are developing ways to evade sanctions and the rise of the petroyuan.
This podcast is the second in a series on China and the geopolitics of energy. Neil Beveridge’s contribution “Is China’s gas dream over?” and Sergey Vakulenko’s article entitled “Marriage of inconvenience – How the war in Ukraine is tying Russia to the Chinese market” are available in the Oxford Energy Forum Issue 137 on our website.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - The geopolitics of energy and China episode 2: China’s gas dream is not over, but will Russia be part of it?
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[post_date] => 2023-09-11 11:52:36
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[post_content] => The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2024, is now available.
- We have upgraded our 2023 Brent forecast $2.6/b to $84.1/b from $81.5/b while leaving the 2024 forecast little changed at $86.8/b. The upgrade was driven by Saudi and Russian extensions to their additional voluntary supply cuts till year-end; solid global oil demand growth despite ongoing macro risks; and accelerating stock draws. These have prompted us to raise our H2 Brent price outlook by $5.1/b to $88.3/b. Prices breaking through to the $90s in early-September brings Brent closer to its upper bound which averages $94.6/b for the remainder of 2023.
- We have revised the H2 deficit deeper by 360 kb/d to 1.53 mb/d and we now forecast tighter market balances in 2023 by -210 kb/d to a 540 kb/d deficit relative to our previous forecast. For 2024, we have adjusted the expected deficit slightly lower by 60 kb/d to 110 kb/d, assuming the reversal of the Saudi additional voluntary cuts over Q1. OECD stocks are projected to remain 100-150 mbbls below the 5-year average for the remainder of 2023 and for most of 2024.
- Global oil demand growth is upgraded 130 kb/d to 2.1 mb/d in 2023 on stronger H1 actuals that boosted y/y growth to 2.2 mb/d and we still expect growth to ease but remain solid at 1.9 mb/d in H2. China and US accounted for the largest demand growth upgrades in 2023, as Europe, APAC and other non-OECD Asia dragged.
- Global oil supply in H2 is now projected to contract 230 kb/d y/y for the first time since H1 2021 on the coordinated Saudi and Russian extensions of their additional supply cuts till year-end amid faltering crude growth elsewhere. Global oil supply in 2023 as a whole is forecast to grow 1.3 mb/d, led by non-OPEC at 1.2 mb/d and non-crude supply growth of 630 kb/d, offset by a 520 kb/d contraction in OPEC crude.
- Price risks to the outlook are balanced in the remainder of 2023, but the balance of risks has now shifted to the upside in 2024. More visibility on OPEC+ output policy for the remainder of 2023 eliminated the supply risks in the year, with geopolitical risks downplayed by the availability of OPEC spare capacity. Demand-side risks remain unresolved but improved.
To purchase your copy of Issue 27 please click here.
Sponsors, Benefactors and Press please email Andreas Economou for a copy.
[post_title] => OIES Oil Monthly - Issue 27
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[post_date] => 2023-09-07 10:58:52
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Mostefa Ouki about the potential for a resurgence in the gas sector in Africa. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the decline of Russian gas exports to Europe there has been increased interest in African gas, mainly as a source of pipeline and LNG exports. Mostefa reviews the main gas players on the continent and discusses the new discoveries that have been made which could lead to major export projects. He also considers the prospects for domestic gas consumption, but also reviews the major challenges facing the companies looking to develop gas assets in the region. The most important of these is financing, and Mostefa analyses the future role of multilateral lending agencies, export credit agencies, government institutions and private capital and describes the need for de-risking of projects by appropriate actors if gas development is to proceed. He also calls for domestic government action in African countries to improve the investment climate and to encourage the new players that will be needed for a gas renaissance to really take place. Finally he discusses the need to new projects to have a low level of carbon intensity if they are to compete in a decarbonising world market
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Will there be a gas renaissance in Africa?
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[post_modified] => 2023-09-07 11:01:51
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[post_date] => 2023-08-30 11:00:22
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[post_content] => In this podcast Anders Hove talks with Herbert Crowther about the role of Chinese clean energy firms in the new geopolitics of energy and the dilemmas they face.
Crowther, a 2023 Schwarzman Scholar and an analyst with Eurasia group, discusses the uncertainties facing Chinese renewable manufacturers: While they are set to retain an “unavoidable presence” in global supply chains, they are facing growing political risk when investing abroad. Anders and Herbert discuss the dilemmas they face as well as these firms’ strategies in China and abroad. While Chinese firms are likely to remain dominant in terms of market share, they are increasingly investing abroad, which Crowther argues will likely entail some technology transfer to countries outside of China where they invest, as well as efforts to develop local supply chains and skilled worker bases—ultimately benefiting the energy transition. This podcast is the first in a series on China and the geopolitics of energy. Crowther’s article, ‘Market dilemmas and strategic balancing acts: Chinese renewable manufacturers in an era of geopolitical competition,’ is available here and in the Oxford Energy Forum Issue 137 on our website.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - The geopolitics of energy and China episode 1: Chinese renewable energy manufacturers’ market dilemmas
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[post_content] => In this extended podcast, Rob Gross, Director of the UK Energy Research Centre and Malcolm Keay of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies discuss the possible reform of UK electricity markets following the UK Government’s ‘Review of Electricity Market Arrangements’. The discussion draws on Professor Gross’s article ‘Arguing over the fundamentals of market reform is undermining investment and impeding the energy transition’ in the Institute’s May 2023 Oxford Energy Forum, and the 2017 OIES paper ‘The Decarbonised Electricity System of the Future: The ‘Two Market’ Approach’. The central issue for discussion is whether incremental improvements to the existing model would be sufficient or whether fundamental changes in market design are necessary to achieve an efficient and sustainable long term electricity system. It complements two earlier podcasts, which focused on so-called ‘split market’ approaches.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Review of Electricity Markets
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[post_modified] => 2023-08-23 11:01:22
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[post_date] => 2023-08-21 10:58:57
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Research Programme, James Henderson talks to Jonathan Stern about three important gatherings that have taken place over the summer which have interesting implications for the gas industry. The first was the G7 meeting in Tokyo in May, then second was the LNG23 conference in Vancouver in early July and the third was the LNG consumer-producer conference in Japan in mid-July. We discuss the potential consequences of the language included in the final G7 communique which referenced the need to support investment in the LNG industry and assess whether it will have any real influence on companies in the sector. Then we review the LNG23 conference, where the outlook for LNG among participants was hugely positive but where industry perception may well have run ahead of reality, especially when it comes to gas’s role in the energy transition. Finally, the producer-consumer dialogue considered the longer-term role of gas and announced a coalition for LNG emissions abatement, although in the discussion we question whether this is anything more than a statement of hope rather than an expectation of real action.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - LNG market development and greenhouse gas emissions
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[post_modified] => 2023-08-22 09:26:31
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[post_date] => 2023-08-15 11:01:09
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[post_content] => In this podcast, David Ledesma discusses with Bassam Fattouh the latest trends in oil markets and assesses the key factors that are expected to shape market outcomes in the second half of the year and in 2024. They discuss the main factors behind the recent rise in oil price, the recent dynamics in physical differentials, the shifts in crude and products trade flows following the EU and G7 embargo on Russian crude and products, the diesel situation in Europe, China’s economic rebound, global oil demand and supply prospects, OPEC+ approach in the current cycle, Russia’s relations with OPEC, and the prospects of US shale.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Global Oil Market Update
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[post_date] => 2023-08-10 11:00:47
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Research Programme, James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood about his latest paper called “A New Global Gas Order (Part 1): The Outlook to 2030 after the Energy Crisis”. The conversation starts by reviewing the key drivers of gas demand across the world, mainly in the power sector where the role of coal and renewables will have a big impact on gas. The discussion then looks at some of the details behind our forecasts for various regions, with Europe and Asia to the fore, before moving on to look at the outlook for different sectors. Mike then compares his forecasts with the estimates from other institutions, with a specific comparison with the latest numbers from the IEA, before moving to the supply side and reviewing the potential for growth in pipeline gas and LNG output. Then we discuss the shift in trade flows that has been caused by the dramatic reduction in exports from Russia, before looking at the outlook for gas prices over the rest of this decade. Finally, we look at the major uncertainties that could impact the forecasts in a positive or negative manner.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - A New Global Gas Order
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[post_content] => China has a huge and growing influence on the global politics and economics of energy. The topic of China’s role in the new geopolitics of energy is hardly new, but the supply chain crisis following Covid and then the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 have combined to further elevate the topic. Decarbonization and the risk of de-globalization are increasingly central to energy policies and are framing the geopolitics of energy. China’s energy security concerns are also closely linked to these trends: China is a leading importer of oil and gas, so its energy supplies are exposed to price volatility, which is exacerbated by supply shocks due to instability in producer countries, transportation bottlenecks, and sanctions. But as China has established itself as the world’s leading manufacturer of renewable energy sources, and as the energy transition gathers momentum, China’s energy security opportunities and challenges are evolving.
From the point of view of advanced economies, China has long been viewed both as an economic partner and as an industrial competitor. Since the Paris Climate Agreement, China has been a central actor in climate diplomacy as well as a leader in clean energy, but China’s dominance of clean energy supply chains has raised concerns about whether Western countries can catch up. For many years, the example of China’s clean energy scale-up acted as a positive spur to more policy action, but since 2020 these efforts have taken on a more urgent and confrontational aspect as governments explicitly target reducing China’s dominance in specific technologies (batteries, solar) and critical materials. In other world regions, attitudes towards the role of China in energy geopolitics are vastly different and are informed, in part, by the deepening rift between China and the US.
The rapidly changing role of China in world energy politics makes it important and timely to review the topic. In this issue of the Oxford Energy Forum, we present insights and views from experts from around the world, showcasing the broad range of views on China’s geopolitical position and trajectory. The issue discusses the role of China and perceptions of it in the geopolitics of hydrogen, renewables, power grids, minerals, finance, and carbon, combined with regional perspectives from Russia, the US, the Middle East, Africa, South-East Asia, and India.
[post_title] => Taking Stock of China and the Geopolitics of Energy - Issue 137
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[post_content] => It’s now August and we finally have a good set of China’s 1H economic and energy statistics to parse, and it looks like a bit of a mixed bag. While economic growth has been notably weak, energy demand has held up somewhat better. Meanwhile, in the power sector, there is a supply-side push underway across coal, nuclear, and renewables.
In this podcast, Michal Meidan, Anders Hove, and Philip Andrews-Speed run through some of the key topics in play this month: the macroeconomic data and what it does and doesn’t mean for energy demand; gas policy and price reforms; an update on the power sector and the potential for outages; news of John Kerry’s climate talks in Beijing; and China’s restrictions on exports of key minerals, this time gallium and germanium.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - 1H China data: a mixed bag of weaker economic growth and stronger renewables
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[post_date] => 2023-08-02 10:16:42
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[post_content] => In this podcast, David Ledesma talks to Frank Felder about how Incorporating Consumer Reliability and permitting customers to adjust their electricity consumption, based on system condition, can reduce costs and improve system reliability. Power outages and major blackouts are widespread, affecting hundreds of millions globally. There are concerns about the reliability of the electric power system and the associated challenges that variable and intermittent renewables introduce. One way to improve reliability and reduce costs is to have more customers adjust their electricity consumption based on system conditions, but demand response has been slow to develop. A market-based way for consumers to do so may help, combined with technological advances in smart meters and load control devices. The critical insight that this research explores is how to incorporate different customer reliability preferences consistent with current reliability policies and market mechanisms.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Incorporating Consumer Reliability Preferences in the Electricity Markets
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[post_date] => 2023-07-25 10:54:19
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Research Programme, James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples about the latest Quarterly Gas Review, published in early July. The discussion ranges from a review of current gas prices in Europe and Asia to an analysis of the impact of the cut in Norwegian supply due to maintenance in June and the impact it had on the European supply balance. Mike then provides an overview of global LNG supply, assessing whether it is above or below expectations for the year, and also considers the recent surge in LNG on the water and looking for a market. Gas and LNG import demand in Asia and Europe is then the focus, with both markets showing levels of consumption below expectations. This has led to Europe being able to fill storage to record levels for this time of year, with the possibility, as discussed by Jack, that it may be full before the start of winter. Indeed, he raises the issue that the use of storage in Ukraine may be an option if there is no other room for surplus gas supply.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Quarterly Gas Review Update
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[post_content] => In this podcast, Michal Meidan talks to Anders Hove about recent developments in China’s green power trading, discussing the findings of his forthcoming paper “Green certificates with Chinese characteristics: Will green certificates help China’s clean energy transition?”, co-authored with Gary Sipeng Xie.
Green power trading is a market-oriented way to promote a clean energy transition in China. In practice, however, China’s leading instrument for this policy, the green certificate, has faced serious obstacles. Michal and Anders discuss the key findings from the paper, including the goals and history of the green certificate policy, similar international experiences, as well as the challenges green certificates face. Anders explains why the increase in market interest since 2021 and recent policy documents in China suggest green power purchasing is likely to play a larger role in China’s power system, but he also highlights the obstacles around transparency and regulation. Anders argues that while the role of green certificates is likely to be limited in meeting private companies’ low carbon goals or in China’s renewable integration, but that companies should nonetheless monitor green certificates in China.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Will green certificates help China’s clean energy transition?
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[post_content] => In this podcast, David Ledesma talks to Jazmin Mota about her latest research paper publication with the OIES entitled ‘Carbon Emissions Accounting in the context of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) coupled with Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR)’. Jazmin discusses why carbon accounting is relevant to evaluate CCUS with EOR explaining that while the projects have the potential to reduce emissions, some interrelated factors influence whether projects reduce emissions or lead to more emissions over time. The author raises awareness of the dynamic nature of the projects and how their design and operation can lead to different outcomes. The behaviour of the CCUS (CCS with EOR) system and the changes in emissions it causes vary over time; for that reason, she presents a methodology that relies on a consequential carbon accounting method as a time-series. The consequential approach is relevant for decision-making and project planning since it provides a system-wide analysis that captures emissions changes beyond the operational boundary. The methodology was applied to Mexico´s case study, whose results show that projects can reach a transition point where they shift from reducing emissions to producing more emissions; therefore, determining that moment in the project´s life is fundamental.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Carbon accounting for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) projects coupled with Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR): A system-wide analysis
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast, recorded by the Gas Research Programme, James Henderson talks to Patrick Heather about his new paper entitled “European Traded Gas Hubs: their continued relevance”. The title of the paper was inspired by the questions raised by the European Commission about whether the TTF hub provided a relevant gas price benchmark in 2022, when prices rose to record highs. The podcast explores the reasons behind this question and then examines the liquidity of the key gas hubs in Europe, looking at the volumes traded, the number of participants, the churn rate and other key indicators that Patrick has been researching over a number of years. The podcast also looks at the role of NBP, especially as the UK played a key role as an LNG bridge for Europe during the energy crisis. Patrick also assesses whether any new hubs could emerge in the coming years, and asks what could happen if the EU price cap is breached and what impact this might have on the trading of gas. Finally, he also considers TTF in a global context and concludes by answering the question that his research paper asks – how relevant are traded markets in Europe?
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - The Relevance of European Gas Hubs
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[post_content] => The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2024, is now available.
- Our Brent forecast is maintained at $81.5/b in 2023 and $86.9/b in 2024, little changed from last month. Deeper OPEC+ cuts combined with softer non-OPEC supply growth in H2 will gradually overcome the -$1.1/b downwards adjustment in our Q2 price forecast. Brent is expected to break above $80/b from August onwards and remain rangebound in the $80s for the rest of the year and for most of 2024 with prices picking up again in H2 2024 as the supply/demand balance tightens, and progressively moving to the high-$80s before reaching $92.1/b in Q4.
- Following the extension of Saudi Arabia’s additional 1 mb/d cut into August and new cut pledges from Algeria and Russia for that month, we have revised the Q3 2023 deficit deeper by 290 kb/d to 1.64 mb/d, implying tighter market balances for H2 as a whole. For 2024, the global balance remains unchanged at a deficit of 0.2 mb/d as small downgrades in both supply/demand offset one another.
- Global oil demand is forecast to grow 1.9 mb/d in 2023, 270 kb/d higher than last month’s forecast and is unchanged at 1.4 mb/d in 2024. The 2023 outlook is raised on US demand growth resilience that saw a 161 kb/d uptick in H1 compared to our forecast last month, as did oil demand in several non-OECD countries which performed better than expected.
- Global oil supply is forecast to grow 1.3 mb/d in 2023, up 70 kb/d. Growth is underpinned by stronger non-OPEC actuals in H1 2023, but has been downgraded -160 kb/d to 1.5 mb/d in 2024. OPEC-10 crude growth is scaled back in both 2023 and 2024 by -120 kb/d and -130 kb/d respectively on the Saudi cut extension to the month of August and additional voluntary OPEC+ cuts. But in terms of total OPEC crude in 2023, this is offset by a 130 kb/d upgrade to Iranian production to 2.9 mb/d. Russian crude will hover close to its 9.5 mb/d target for the remainder of the year, with growth momentum outside OPEC+ easing in H2 as US shale growth begins to slow.
- We have adjusted the balance of risks lower in 2023 and 2024. The downside demand risks in the very near-term have prompted us to shift the H2 balance of risks by -$1.4/b. We have also adjusted the balance of price risks in 2024 by -$1.4/b amid firmer Russian output expectations in 2023, OPEC+ maintaining a larger spare capacity cushion and amidst ongoing macro risks and uncertainties.
To purchase your copy of Issue 26 please click here.
Sponsors, Benefactors and Press please email Andreas Economou for a copy.
[post_title] => OIES Oil Monthly - Issue 26
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[post_date] => 2023-07-10 11:00:23
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[post_content] => In this podcast, Anders Hove and Michal Meidan talk about China’s coal consumption, drawing on the Coal chapter in the Guide to Chinese Climate Policies. Anders and Michal talk about the importance of coal for the Chinese economy, the geography of coal demand as well as structural trends in Chinese coal use as the country proceeds with its energy transition. While the long term direction of travel is clear, the availability of discounted Russian coal and the focus on energy security in recent years have led to a greater prominence for coal in China’s energy mix. They discuss the rise in coal production and imports as well as concerns about power outages this summer.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - China’s coal conundrum
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[post_date] => 2023-06-29 11:00:38
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Research Programme, James Henderson talks to Graeme Bethune about his latest paper entitled “Is Australia quietly quitting the LNG business?”. The podcast starts with an overview of the Australian gas market, considering the main areas of domestic demand and the key production sites, including the major LNG export projects. The discussion then moves onto concerns that the Australian government may be starting to prioritise domestic supply over exports, a topic that has been raised by customers in Japan. A key catalyst for this debate was the East Cost energy crisis in June 2022, which raised issues of availability of gas and high prices for domestic customers. The Australian government has given reassurances that it will not undermine export sales, but the long-term future of the LNG export business has also been called into question by the slowing of exploration activity and supplier concerns that the market for gas could be undermined by decarbonisation in Australia and Asia. As a result, a combination of domestic policy and slowing international demand could see Australian LNG exports go into gradual decline by the end of this decade, with the risk that further domestic energy crises could cause interruptions before then.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Is Australia quietly quitting the LNG business?
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[post_content] => In this episode of the OIES podcast series, Anders Hove and Edmund Downie discuss China’s manufacturing sector and its present and future energy and emissions trajectory. Edmund Downie, a 2nd-year PhD student in the Science, Technology, and Environmental Policy program at the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs and the author of two chapters in the Guide to Chinese Climate Policy, which the OIES China Programme published in 2022. In the podcast, Downie breaks down trends and targets for carbon emissions from the manufacturing sector; the breakdown of different greenhouse gases and which industries are responsible for non-CO2 emissions and how carbon markets and the CBAM (carbon border adjustment mechanism) could influence the trajectory of carbon emissions.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - China's manufacturing sector carbon emissions: policies, trends, and challenges
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[post_content] => In this podcast David Ledesma talks to Martin Lambert and Abdurahman Alsulaiman, about the potential hydrogen import market, particularly focusing on the EU, which currently holds the largest and earliest hydrogen target. The podcast explores the emerging hydrogen trade market and considers numerous possibilities for its open up providing better clarity on policy statements and balance them against project announcements.
Throughout the podcast, Martin and Abdulrahman delve into various key points - they shed light on the primary areas of focus for projects set to be completed by or before 2030, as well as the distinction between announcements and tangible progress, such as projects currently at the Final Investment Decision stage or under construction.
Additionally, they explore the EU's role as one of the few countries to have publicly announced its requirements for hydrogen imports and its ambitious hydrogen import target. The EU is currently establishing a benchmark for the future hydrogen market. However, in order for the EU to succeed in establishing future hydrogen supply lines with future trade partners, it will be crucial to engage in open dialogues covering a wide range of topics.
Join us in this podcast as we uncover the potential of the hydrogen import market, with a specific focus on the EU, and discuss the necessary steps for its success.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Renewable Hydrogen Import Routes into the EU
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[post_date] => 2023-06-19 11:47:52
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[post_content] => The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2024, is now available.
- We reduced our Reference forecast for Brent by $2.5/b to $82.1/b in 2023, from $84.6/b forecast last month. The outlook now reflects higher macro risks which will continue to temper price gains despite the market falling into a deeper deficit in H2, before gaining momentum in Q4 as the OPEC+ cuts play out amid tighter stocks. For 2024, we adjusted our Brent forecast higher by $1.2/b to $87.2/b, as lower OPEC+ supplies after the new deal address a weaker global oil demand outlook and an upgrade in projected non-OPEC supplies.
- The oil market balance is forecast at -490 kb/d and -180 kb/d deficit in 2023 and 2024, respectively, which implies global stock draws. Following the new OPEC+ deal, the previously expected -1.17 mb/d deficit in Q3 2023 deepens by -190 kb/d to -1.36 mb/d led by Saudi Arabia’s additional 1 mb/d voluntary cut in July, but the projected -290 kb/d downgrade of global oil demand in H2 offsets lower supplies in the second half of the year (-320 kb/d) and slightly reduces the deficit in Q4 to -860 kb/d from -980 kb/d forecast last month. For 2024, the global balance tightens by -280 kb/d compared to last month, flipping into deficit from a previously projected small 100 kb/d surplus, as the -590 kb/d downgrade in global supply due to the extension of OPEC+ voluntary cuts under the new deal is confronted by a -300 kb/d downward revision in global oil demand on softening growth.
- We forecast global oil demand will grow by 1.7 mb/d in 2023, up 50 kb/d from last month, but downgraded 2024 growth by -350 kb/d to 1.4 mb/d in 2024. Stronger demand growth y/y in H1 2023 up 380 kb/d to 1.7 mb/d from 1.4 mb/d previously expected prompted the 2023 upgrade. The frontloaded demand strength in H1 will however temper growth in H2 and beyond, leading us to downgrade our growth forecast for global oil demand -280 kb/d to 1.6 mb/d y/y in H2 2023 and -350 kb/d to 1.4 mb/d in 2024.
- Global oil supply is forecast to grow 1.3 mb/d in 2023, 220 kb/d lower than last month’s forecast and is downgraded -340 kb/d to 1.7 mb/d in 2024. Supply downgrades this month are driven primarily by lowering OPEC crude growth -50 kb/d to -480 kb/d in 2023 and -510 kb/d to 390 kb/d in 2024, following the new OPEC+ deal and Saudi Arabia’s additional 1 mb/d voluntary cut in July, on top of the existing 500 kb/d voluntary cut since May. Outside OPEC+, our non-OPEC and other liquids supply growth forecasts for 2024 turn more positive by 160 kb/d to 1.3 mb/d.
To purchase your copy of Issue 25 please click here.
Sponsors, Benefactors and Press please email Andreas Economou for a copy.
[post_title] => OIES Oil Monthly - Issue 25
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Research Programme, James Henderson talks to Marshall Hall about the impact of the global LNG market on UK energy security, based on a recent paper of the same name published by OIES in partnership with the UK Energy Research Council (UKERC) in May 2023. The podcast discusses the history of the UK’s gas sector and how it has increased its reliance on the global LNG market as domestic production has fallen, and also looks at the development of critical infrastructure to cope with this change. The closure of the Rough storage facility (now being re-opened) increased the importance of the UK’s LNG import terminals, which are discussed in detail, and also the pipelines that link them to consumers both in the UK and in Europe. The two interconnectors that bring gas from the UK to the continent have provided security of supply to the EU during the recent energy crisis, and have underlined the vital role that LNG arriving in the UK has played over the past 18 months. The podcast also analyses key policy and regulatory drivers that underpin the UK gas market and its increasing use of imports, while also considering the role of these imports in the energy transition.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - LNG and UK Energy Security
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[post_date] => 2023-06-14 11:02:05
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[post_content] => In this latest podcast, David Ledesma unpacks the latest OPEC+ decision with Bassam Fattouh. The latest OPEC+ decision is quite unique because of its multiple layers. To start with, OPEC+ countries agreed a new deal that starts in January 2024 till the end of December 2024. Also, earlier this year in April, several OPEC+ countries announced voluntary cuts until the end of 2023. During the last meeting, these countries decided to extend these voluntary cuts until the end of 2024. These announcements are expected to give more visibility to the market about OPEC+ supply next year. Also, for the first time since April 2020, the meeting addressed the very thorny issue of baselines and quotas. The formal output targets remained unchanged for the rest of 2023 but there will be adjustments in 2024. OPEC+ countries agreed to lower the targets for several countries that are struggling to meet their current production quotas (those are mainly the African producers) while raising the output target for other countries to reflect their expanding upstream capacity.
One of the key innovations in the latest agreement is the introduction of independent assessments of OPEC+ countries’ upstream capacities. In the past, each country used to declare its production capacity without any independent verification or assessment and for many countries, the declared capacities usually came at a much higher levels than the actual levels, as countries wanted to negotiate higher output quotas. In the new agreement, by end of June 2024, all OPEC+ countries will go through an assessment by independent bodies. On top of all these announcements, Saudi Arabia declared a voluntary cut of 1 million b/d. This is in addition to the voluntary cut of 500,000 b/d back in April. Saudi Arabia started 2023 from a production target of around 10.5 million b/d. With the 500,000 b/d reduction in April, this will take Saudi Arabia’s production to around 9 million b/d in July. At the broader level, there was a lot of talk about rifts between key OPEC+ countries, particularly there was some speculation that the UAE will leave the group as the UAE is not happy with its production target. This issue has been resolved and there is now a process on how to assess countries’ upstream capacities which will provide a much more objective, fairer, and more transparent way to calculate quotas in 2025 and beyond.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Unpacking OPEC+ Multilayer Decision
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[post_date] => 2023-06-08 11:17:20
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[post_content] => In this latest podcast from the OIES China programme, Anders Hove and Michal Meidan discuss the future of fossil fuel demand in China, what this means for the country’s import requirements and the geopolitical implications of these trends.
China is currently the world’s largest oil importer and is on track to becoming the largest LNG buyer. In this podcast, Michal and Anders discuss how long China’s reliance on imported oil and gas will continue as well as some of the drivers that inform different scenarios. While there are different outlooks for peak demand and for the speed with which oil and gas use in China declines, most scenarios still expect China to remain the world’s largest oil and gas importer for at least a decade. At the same time, the number of oil and gas suppliers is set to shrink, limiting China’s ability to diversify its imports. These growing interdependencies with the Middle East, Russia and the US are all set against different geopolitical contexts, raising questions about how China will manage its energy ties with its main suppliers as well as with emerging consumers. Anders and Michal discuss China’s views of energy security and the extent to which access to resources is driving China’s foreign policy and commercial strategies.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - The outlook for fossil fuels in China’s energy transition and its geopolitical implications
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[post_date] => 2023-06-05 11:01:33
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[post_content] => In this podcast, David Ledesma again talks to Professor Michael Grubb of UCL and Malcolm Keay of the OIES on the proposed dual market designs for electricity, focusing on split market proposals. In recent months, electricity market arrangements have been widely debated in the UK and Europe, because of the impact of high gas prices and the fundamental changes the system is undergoing as decarbonisation progresses. The discussion draws on Professor Grubb’s article ‘Disentangling the debate on Electricity (re) Design and ‘Split Markets’ in the Institute’s May 2023 Oxford Energy Forum, and on the 2017 OIES paper ‘The Decarbonised Electricity System of the Future: The ‘Two Market’ Approach’. The discussion is in two parts: the first part [published last week] looks at the main elements of the proposals and the objections that have been raised against them. This is the second part and will look at more detailed aspects of the proposals and the European context.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Electricity (re) Design and ‘Split Markets’ - Part 2
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[post_content] => In this podcast, David Ledesma talks to Professor Michael Grubb of UCL and Malcolm Keay of the OIES on the proposed dual market designs for electricity. In recent months, electricity market arrangements have been widely debated in the UK and Europe, because of the impact of high gas prices and the fundamental changes the system is undergoing as decarbonisation progresses. The discussion draws on Professor Grubb’s article ‘Disentangling the debate on Electricity (re) Design and ‘Split Markets’ in the Institute’s May 2023 Oxford Energy Forum, and on the 2017 OIES Energy Insight ‘The Decarbonised Electricity System of the Future: The ‘Two Market’ Approach’. The discussion is in two parts: the first part [published today] looks at the main elements of the proposals and the objections that have been raised against them. The second part [to follow next week] will look at more detailed aspects of the proposals and the European context.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Electricity (re) Design and ‘Split Markets’ - Part 1
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[post_modified] => 2023-06-01 11:37:57
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[71] => WP_Post Object
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[post_date] => 2023-05-30 10:59:38
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples about the current issues that are shaping the global gas market. After reviewing the downward trajectory of prices over the past few months they consider the key sources of supply to Europe before providing an overview of global LNG supply and demand. They discuss the potential for a demand rebound in Europe and Asia at current prices, but then focus on the risk that the EU could take firmer action on imports of Russian gas. They look at whether recent proposals to ban any increase in flows through Russian pipelines that have been shut down are likely to come to any concrete conclusion, and also ask whether the EU or member states are likely to impose restrictions on the import of Russian LNG. They also review the implications of the completion of the first tender held by the AggregateEU purchasing platform, and consider the question of whether European buyers will be persuaded to sign new long-term contracts for LNG supply. Finally, they review the current state of gas storage in Europe and ask whether the situation in the market is actually as benign as prices would suggest.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - An Update on Global Gas Markets
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[post_name] => oies-podcast-an-update-on-global-gas-markets
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[post_date] => 2023-05-24 10:58:38
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[post_content] => In this latest podcast, Anders Hove, Philip Andrews-Speed and Michal Meidan take stock of China’s energy and climate policies in the first few months of 2023. They discuss Q1 2023 data, how China’s economic recovery is shaping up and impacting energy demand; they talk about the implications of rising coal consumption, production and trade for emissions while also taking stock of the large renewable installations in the year to date and government efforts to accelerate the deployment of renewables. Anders, Philip and Michal talk about the trade-offs between economic growth, energy security and environmental protections, breakthroughs in new energy innovation as well as about China’s energy relations with its South East Asian neighbors and with Central Asia.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast: Taking stock of China’s energy and climate policies
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[post_date] => 2023-05-22 11:00:08
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[post_content] => David Ledesma discusses with Mohua Mukherjee what to expect from the Indian Carbon Market which is under preparation at the moment and will be launched later in 2023. India, like other signatories to the Paris Agreement, will be setting up its emission trading rules as per Article 6 of the Agreement.
India was the second largest issuer of Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) under the Clean Development Mechanism, which was the predecessor to today's carbon market. Therefore, the country already has considerable experience in the carbon offset market, which is the so-called voluntary market. It turns out that India also has two decades of experience in the compliance market, because it has been running a domestic energy efficiency scheme where large, energy-intensive industrial sectors are required to participate and meet their year-on-year targets to reduce their energy intensity. Companies that over-achieve their targets are issued with energy savings certificates. Companies that under-achieve must pay a penalty or buy the certificates from the over-achievers. A separate compliance market has been operating for a decade in the renewable energy sector, issuing renewable energy certificates to help certain companies meet their renewable purchase obligations.
There will be a two-year transition period where the present certificates (expressed in tons of oil equivalent and megawatt-hours respectively) will be converted and in future issued only in tons of CO2 equivalent. The future Indian carbon market will essentially absorb and combine the two existing compliance markets and the voluntary offset market. Accredited verifiers are being trained and methodologies for Monitoring Reporting and Verification (MRV) are being worked out. Early indications of how the Indian Carbon Market will be operated, point to the importance placed by India on meeting its ambitious NDC targets first, before allowing international trading in carbon credit certificates from emission reductions generated in India.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Building the Indian Carbon Market
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[post_date] => 2023-05-18 10:58:33
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the OIES Gas Research Programme, James Henderson talks to Katja Yafimava about her recent OIES paper “EU solidarity in a time of crisis: even with a will the way still looks difficult.” In the discussion Katja addresses the key issue that although Europe currently appears to be in a relatively benign position with regards to meeting its gas demand, it may not be so lucky in the winter of 2023/24, with the risks particularly high for Central and Eastern Europe. As a result, she argues that recent Eu legislation which includes energy solidarity measures may become increasingly important if the global gas market starts to tighten and the potential for shortages in Europe emerges. She describes the various regulations which include solidarity measures, including the Security of Supply and Enhanced Security of Supply Regulations and the Gas Demand Reduction Regulation and assesses what problems could emerge if they need to be implemented. She also highlights that at present very few solidarity agreements have actually been reached between member states, meaning that the region could still be vulnerable in the event of a cold winter or a further supply interruption.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - EU solidarity at a time of gas crisis
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[post_date] => 2023-05-17 11:00:18
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[post_content] => In this podcast from the OIES China programme, Michal Meidan talks to Philip Andrews-Speed and Anders Hove about their forthcoming paper. They discuss the importance of rare earths, how China became dominant in its mining and processing and how Western governments are responding to this vulnerability. Rare earth elements are becoming increasingly important for the low-carbon energy transition given their application in batteries and permanent magnets for wind turbines and electric vehicles. Today, China accounts for about 70 per cent of rare earth ore extraction and about 90 per cent of processing and refining to produce rare earth metals. China’s dominance of the rare earth supply chain is increasingly seen as a risk for the West and its energy transition.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Unpacking China’s dominance in rare earths
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[post_modified] => 2023-05-17 11:25:47
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[post_date] => 2023-05-16 10:55:43
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[post_content] => The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2024, is now available.
- Our forecast for global oil demand growth remains roughly unchanged at 1.6 mb/d in 2023 and 1.7 mb/d in 2024. China’s stronger than anticipated turnaround in Q1 buoyed non-OECD growth for 2023 to 1.5 mb/d, from 1.3 mb/d last month, offsetting softer OECD growth which is halved to 140 kb/d from 300 kb/d. The downgrade of OECD growth this month is entirely led by downward revisions in US demand, which we expect to marginally contract by 84 kb/d in 2023 before returning to 185 kb/d growth in 2024. We have revised upwards China’s oil demand growth in 2023 by 140 kb/d to 790 kb/d on the strong Q1 actuals, but our H2 forecast continues to err on the side of caution as China’s economic recovery remains uneven. India’s robust macro performance and higher intake of cheap Russian crude continue to support the 2023 demand outlook, leading to a small y/y uptick to 250 kb/d from 210 kb/d previously. In terms of products, jet fuel demand growth is further upgraded in 2023 by 110 kb/d to 1 mb/d, accounting for around 60% of total gains, as the Q1 weakness in LPG demand led to a 150 kb/d downgrade for the year.
- We have upgraded our global oil supply outlook by 130 kb/d to 1.5 mb/d in 2023 and by 170 kb/d to 2 mb/d in 2024. Non-OPEC growth in H1 2023 is lifted by 210 kb/d, although it is expected to soften after Q2. We have slightly downgraded US crude supply by 40 kb/d in both 2023 and 2024 to 660 kb/d and 360 kb/d y/y, respectively. OPEC crude production fell m/m in April by 240 kb/d on disruptions from Iraq and Nigeria, ahead of the planned May voluntary cuts. This has pushed total OPEC+ underproduction to its highest since November 2022, at 2.4 mb/d below quota, and we forecast another 890 kb/d decline m/m in May, as crude exports from the eight producers enacting the cuts have already seen a hefty decline in the first two weeks of the month. OPEC crude output is projected to contract by 430 kb/d in 2023.
- Our Reference forecast for Brent is $84.6/b in 2023 and $86.0/b in 2024. The Brent Prospect stands at $83.7/b in 2023 and $84.0/b in 2024, $0.8/b and $2.0/b below our reference. The balance of price risks is further skewed to the downside this month, particularly in 2024 standing at -$7.8/b, as the low-end of the price band widened by around $5/b in both years to range between $75.3/b and $91.5/b in 2023 and between $61.0/b and $103.2/b in 2024. Pressures arising from less optimistic global growth prospects are cutting the reference outlook by -$4/b in 2023 and -$11.5/b in 2024.
- The oil market balance is forecast at a -0.2 mb/d deficit in 2023 and 0.1 mb/d surplus in 2024. We maintain our forecast of a small -210 kb/d deficit in 2023, relatively unchanged from last month, but we have revised upwards the balance in 2024 by 240 kb/d to a small 100 kb/d surplus. The supply/demand gap however remains near balance in both years, with the focus starting to shift to 2024 balances as supply/demand prospects have weakened and the gap on balance has grown to a 500 kb/d surplus.
To purchase your copy of Issue 24 please click here.
Sponsors, Benefactors and Press please email Andreas Economou for a copy.
[post_title] => OIES Oil Monthly - Issue 24
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[post_date] => 2023-05-11 08:34:25
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[post_content] => Electricity market design has become a highly debated issue in recent times, especially in Europe, where the surge in wholesale electricity spot prices can be attributed to the excessively high costs of natural gas. Many people believe that the root cause lies in the market design's emphasis on determining a single market clearing price based on the most expensive resource needed to meet demand, often natural gas. In addition to the immediate energy crisis and short-term challenges, analysts are increasingly worried that the current market design, if continued, would drive down wholesale electricity prices to such low levels that new investments would become unprofitable, mainly due to the widespread adoption of zero-marginal-cost renewable electricity. The long-term consequences of this situation have now become a vital part of ongoing discussions in various regions, including the United Kingdom where the government has introduced the Review of Electricity Market Arrangements (REMA).
The articles presented in this issue of the Oxford Energy Forum delve into a debate surrounding the topic of electricity market design. Recognizing the pressing need to confront the dual challenges of the short-term energy crisis and the long-term imperative of decarbonization, the contributors engage in discussions to explore the various ways in which the electricity market can be reformed.
[post_title] => Electricity market design during the Energy Transition and the Energy Crisis - Issue 136
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[post_date] => 2023-05-09 08:32:56
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[post_content] => David Ledesma discusses with Nnaziri Ihejirika the development of Carbon Capture, Usage and Storage (CCUS) in Canada and government regulation. To support the broad adoption of CCUS in Canada, the government has introduced two fiscal and regulatory levers – carbon pricing and an investment tax credit (ITC). Federal output-based pricing system (OBPS) for carbon, introduced in 2018, will see the cost of CO2 escalate from $65/tCO2e in 2023 to $170/tCO2e by 2030. On the other end of the carrot-stick dynamic, the ITC provides a rebate, approximately 20–30 per cent, of project costs associated with CCUS implementation. Supporting this, the Pathways Alliance – consisting of the country’s largest oilsands producers – seeks to share common costs like transportation and storage, reducing the risk for individual facilities and driving down the levelized cost of CCUS. While the ITC may not be as lucrative for investors as the 45Q tax credit in the United States, Canada’s regulatory approach offers long-term value to heavy emitters when avoided costs of carbon are considered. To support the carbon price signal, tightening rates and the expiry term for offsets and credits may need to be adjusted as required to balance supply and demand on a go-forward basis.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - CCS regulatory frameworks in Canada
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[post_content] => In this podcast, David Ledesma engages in a conversation with Alex Patonia and Rahmat Poudineh on their recent paper focusing on hydrogen storage for a net-zero carbon future. The podcast delves into the various types of hydrogen storage options, highlighting their relative strengths and drawbacks.
In order for a hydrogen economy to be established, several key factors must be addressed, including efficient and decarbonized production, adequate transportation infrastructure, and the deployment of suitable hydrogen storage facilities. However, hydrogen presents unique challenges when it comes to storage and handling. Due to its extremely low volumetric energy density under ambient conditions, hydrogen cannot be efficiently or economically stored without undergoing compression, liquefaction, or conversion into other more manageable substances.
At present, there exist several hydrogen storage solutions at different levels of technology, market, and commercial readiness, each with varying applications depending on specific circumstances.
Additionally, the podcast explores the primary barriers that hinder investment in hydrogen storage, and the essential components of a viable business model that can address the primary risks to which potential hydrogen storage investors are exposed.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Hydrogen Storage for a net-zero carbon future
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[post_date] => 2023-05-02 10:19:00
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Research Programme, James Henderson talks to Anouk Honoré about her new Energy Insight on the outlook for gas demand in Europe. After starting with a little historical context, reviewing the reasons for strong demand growth in 2021 followed by the sharp decline in 2022, the discussion moves onto the key sectors and countries that were hit by the energy crisis in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Anouk then analyses the direction of demand in the first quarter of 2023 before looking ahead to the rest of the year. She gives her thoughts on how much industrial demand could rebound if prices remain low and how much may have been lost permanently before looking at the prospects for the power sector, discussing the potential impact of the return of nuclear power in France and the general expansion of renewables, which could offset the closure of other coal and nuclear plants. Finally she looks at the heating sector and considers the potential consequences of a return to average winter temperatures, following the very warm winter in 2022/23. She then concludes with a look ahead to 2030 and considers whether there is any chance of the REPowerEU targets for a sharp decline in gas demand being met.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - The Outlook for Gas Demand in Europe
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[post_date] => 2023-04-25 13:45:04
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[post_content] => China is a leader in solar photovoltaics, and has recently launched a major new programme to deploy solar in rural areas, known as the Whole County PV programme. Meanwhile, China is continuing to promote clean heating in rural areas, but so far with an emphasis on clean coal instead of electrification. In today’s podcast, we speak with OIES Senior Research Fellow Anders Hove about the potential to pair heat pump technology with PV as part of the Whole County PV pilot program. In a forthcoming OIES paper, Anders discusses the economics as well as the barriers to adopting such a paired approach to clean heating and cooling.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - China’s Whole County PV programme and synergies with clean heating
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[post_content] => In this podcast David Ledesma discusses with Takeshi Miyamori and Ji Soo Yoon, Kristina Lygnerud and Marek Miara the role of cities and local specificities in the decarbonization of heat in the European buildings sector. Takeshi Miyamori and Ji Soo Yoon argue the energy and climate battle will be won or lost in cities and that only a coordinated effort across national and local governments can get us closer to energy security and a net-zero future. Building stock differs across places in terms of age, size, tenure, usage, and energy performance and national governments cannot tap into the full potential for decarbonizing buildings without subnational policy actions and targeted support to cities and regions. A perfect example of this is the potential of urban waste heat. Kristina Lygnerud highlights some of the key findings from the ReUseHeat project and concludes that the current context of climate urgency in combination with a war that has forced Europe to shift away from gas has led to a situation where we need to make the best possible use of available resources, and urban waste heat should be one. The technology and the resource are already there. Finally, Marek Miara focuses on the building level and sheds some lights on the application of heat pumps in existing buildings. Contrary to popular belief, the author argues that houses do not have to be extensively renovated to allow for an installation of a heat pump, although of course, the lower the heat losses, the more efficiently a heat pump can operate.
The decarbonization of buildings will need to have a central role in the European transition to a zero-carbon future, but the task is enormous and lacks implementation speed. Read more in our latest edition of the Oxford Energy Forum: Issue 135 - Decarbonizing heat in the European buildings sector: options, progress and challenges
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - The role of cities and local specificities in the decarbonization of heat in the European buildings sector
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[post_date] => 2023-04-19 11:17:14
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Research Programme, James Henderson talks to Jack Sharples and Mike Fulwood about the outlook for the global gas market before having a more focused discussion with Michal Meidan about the prospects for Chinese gas demand in 2023. Jack and Mike review the key signposts that highlighted at the start of 2023 and which we continue to monitor the implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These are the level of Russian gas supply into Europe, which has fallen sharply over the past 12 months and continues to be at risk in Europe; the development of global LNG supply both as a replacement in Europe but also to supply other importing regions; the pace of demand in growth in Asia, as the major consumer of LNG in the world; total gas supply into the European market as a proxy for demand; the level of storage in Europe as a measurement of preparedness for increased gas demand in winter; and the level of prices that emerge from theses supply and demand issues. As we review the first quarter of 2023 against these signposts the overarching theme is that the outturn for Europe has been much more benign than could have been expected at the start of winter. However, although prices have fallen sharply from their 2022 highs, they still remain well above the 5-year average level, underlining the point that although the outlook for 2023 looks relatively calm it would not take much of a shift in supply or demand to cause a sharp rebound.
On China, one of the big questions has been how the unwinding of the COVID lockdown would impact energy markets. With the economy now fully re-opened, it is expected that growth will resume and with it energy demand, including demand for pipeline gas and LNG imports. Michal Meidan describes the underlying complexities of the future of gas in China in the short and long-term. Much depends on what route to growth the Chinese leadership decides to take, and also on the policy concerning energy security, which tends to favour gas over coal. In addition, the drive to increase domestic gas production and to optimise imports via pipeline means that the need for spot LNG purchases could be minimal in 2023, albeit that LNG supply under long-term contracts is set to grow.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Outlook for Global Gas Markets and Chinese Gas Demand
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[post_date] => 2023-04-14 11:50:39
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[post_content] => The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, introducing our first oil market outlook for 2024, is now available.
- We have upgraded Russia’s crude oil production by 340 kb/d to 10.57 mb/d in 2023 from the previous 10.23 mb/d forecast and expect Russian supply to average 10.44 mb/d in 2024, a y/y decline of 130 kb/d. Russian liquids output (including condensates) reached 11 mb/d in February, holding near pre-war levels and is expected to decline to around 10.4 mb/d by April due to the announced 500 kb/d ‘voluntary’ crude output cuts that started in March and will be maintained to the end of 2023. This now reflects our Reference case in which forecast Russian crude production disruptions in 2023 are halved this month to 470 kb/d from 810 kb/d compared to pre-war Jan/Feb-22 levels. For 2024, we assume that the Russian ‘voluntary’ cuts are not reversed resulting in disruptions averaging 600 kb/d versus the Jan/Feb-22 baseline.
- Global oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.6 mb/d in 2023, broadly unchanged from last month and by 1.8 mb/d in 2024. A stronger-than-previously-expected start to the year, particularly in the non-OECD, is supportive to the outlook, but we expect global demand growth on a H2-over-H1 basis to be more evenly distributed. China and India are expected to account for nearly half global demand growth in both 2023 and 2024, worth around 800 kb/d annually combined. In the OECD however, ongoing macro-pressures are forecast to keep demand growth to 300 kb/d in 2023 and 360 kb/d in 2024, from 1.2 mb/d last year. In terms of products, jet fuel demand growth is forecast to dominate products in both years, rising 925 kb/d in 2023 and 640 kb/d in 2024, while still remaining just 94% of 2019 levels on average next year.
- Global oil supply is forecast to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2023, 240 kb/d lower than our forecast last month, and by 1.9 mb/d in 2024. On April 2, eight OPEC+ producers announced a 1.16 mb/d voluntary cut in total starting in May and lasting until the end of 2023, in addition to their existing quotas and Russia’s 500 kb/d voluntary cut. Unlike October’s cuts, the latest voluntary cuts refer to ‘real’ rather than ‘paper’ barrels, as all participating producers have been meeting their targets and the new cuts will lead to a decline in OPEC+ oil production, 1 mb/d of which will originate from OPEC producers and the rest from non-OPEC+. Non-OPEC growth is projected at 1.2 mb/d led by the US, Brazil, Canada and Norway. In 2024, non-OPEC crude growth is expected to be halved relative to this year at 570 kb/d, although US and Brazil will remain the key contributors. OPEC crude output in 2024 is forecast to rise by 1 mb/d, assuming the reversal of the extra cuts from January-onwards.
- We have revised our Reference forecast for Brent to $88.0/b in 2023 and $88.2/b in 2024. The latest banking crisis in the US and EU has aggravated macro uncertainty, particularly in Advanced Economies. Moreover, we now consider that resilient Russian supply is fully priced-in. As a result, we have cut our Brent outlook for 2023 by $6.7/b from $94.6/b last month. But the planned OPEC+ extra cuts provide support to the outlook later in the year, with Brent projected to rise into the $90s on a sustained basis in the second half and average $95.6/b in Q4. The assumed reversal of the OPEC+ voluntary cuts at the beginning of next year under our Reference case is expected to push prices back to $87.9/b in Q1 2024, with available spare capacity within OPEC, as well as healthier stock levels capping prices close to $90/b in the remainder of the year. The Brent Prospect stands at $86.1/b and $86.5/b in 2023 and 2024, respectively, around $2/b below the Reference forecast.
- The balance of price risks remains tilted to the downside in both 2023 and 2024, but negative pressures in 2023 have now eased to -$1.9/b on balance, as the upside potential intensifies in H2 reflecting a stronger Chinese rebound or a faster monetary policy easing. Downside demand pressures dominate again in 2024 driven by the risk of the recent credit crunch leading to a protracted recession. But these are partly offset by supply risks shifting to the upside on balance next year, reflecting the uncertainty over OPEC+’s next steps, Russian supply and non-OPEC growth.
- The oil market balance is forecast at a -0.3 mb/d deficit in 2023 and -0.1 mb/d deficit in 2024. The oil market is seen near balance in both years, with balances now expected to flip into a marginal deficit in Q2 2023 due to the announced OPEC+ output cuts, but the expected tightness in H2 has eased by 180 kb/d to -870 kb/d relative to last month’s forecast.
To purchase your copy of Issue 23 please click here.
Sponsors, Benefactors and Press please email Andreas Economou for a copy.
[post_title] => OIES Oil Monthly - Issue 23
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[post_date] => 2023-04-13 11:11:42
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[post_content] => China is by far the world’s largest producer and consumer of hydrogen, mostly from coal and other fossil fuels, and the country has an ambitious hydrogen strategy. In this podcast, we dive into the provincial strategies on hydrogen in China, and specifically discuss a recent paper published by the Institute entitled, China’s hydrogen development: A tale of three cities. The paper looks at the experiences and plans of the pilot hydrogen clusters located in Datong, Shanxi province, Chengdu in Sichuan province, and Zhangjiakou in the northern part of Hebei province, which surrounds Beijing. In this podcast, we are speaking with the paper’s author, Arabella Miller-Wang, recently an Aramco fellow at the Institute and also a Research Assistant at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment of The University of Oxford, as well as with Michal Meidan, director of the China Energy Programme at OIES, and with Martin Lambert, who heads hydrogen research at the OIES.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - China and Hydrogen: A Tale of Three Cities
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[post_date] => 2023-04-11 11:00:35
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[post_content] => In this podcast, David Ledesma discusses with Alix Chambris, Christoph Riechmann and Aksana Krasatsenka some of the challenges and the practicalities in the decarbonization of heat in the European buildings sector.
Alix Chambris argues that the current crisis may have presented Europe with a unique opportunity. Overnight, the replacement of gas for space heating became a top priority for energy security, next to climate goals. Changing consumer preferences, the investment readiness of the private sector, and the new policy framework could constitute a critical mass for exponential change and unleash a green swan (unpredicted event that positively transforms the economy) for buildings. Christoph Riechmann then focuses on one of the key features of the buildings sector, which is that heating demand is highly seasonal and argues that because of the presence of externalities and the maturity of some of the technologies, policymakers will need to support low-carbon heating options, will benefit from adopting a portfolio of heating technologies, should be as technology-neutral as possible, and should just ensure coordination where needed. Finally, Aksana Krasatsenka focuses on District heating systems arguing that they help save natural and financial resources by enabling the integration of heat from sources that are otherwise lost, such as waste heat and deep geothermal heat. The use of these heat sources can also help to keep energy prices low. Heating and cooling are the next frontier for renewable and sustainable energies growth, and Europe is in a pole position to lead this global race. Locally owned district heating and cooling networks providing sustainable heat are a perfect illustration of this.
The decarbonization of buildings will need to have a central role in the European transition to a zero-carbon future, but the task is enormous and lacks implementation speed. Read more in our latest edition of the Oxford Energy Forum: Issue 135 – Decarbonizing heat in the European buildings sector: options, progress and challenges
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - The challenges and the practicalities in the decarbonization of heat in the European buildings sector
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[post_content] => In this podcast David Ledesma discusses with Thomas Nowak, Michael Taylor and Katja Kruit the role of policies in the decarbonization of heat in the European buildings sector.
Thomas Nowak argues that while heat pump sales have soared in recent years, we are still way off from where we need to be. Thomas advocates for policymakers to select the most efficient technology and then implement all necessary measures to deploy it at speed. He reckons that in the long term, renewable energy and heat pumps are the best solution not only for the environment but also for the economy and should be made the imperative of the energy transition. Picking up a similar theme, Michael Taylor reviews some data on costs and performance of heat pumps from primary sources. Despite the difficulty of making comparisons between countries due to data boundaries, terminology, and availability by technology and market segment, some common themes can be drawn, including the decline of installed costs per kW thermal over time, the presence of economies of scale, and an apparent increase of system efficiency—measured as the coefficient of performance—through time. Finally, Katja Kruit focuses on the Dutch market, where over 90 per cent of residential and commercial buildings use natural gas for heating and cooking. The author reviewed some of the policy instruments used in the Dutch heat transition and concludes that two areas stand out in which there is obvious room for policy strengthening: performance standards for privately owned homes and the introduction of a carbon cap for heating fuel.
The decarbonization of buildings will need to have a central role in the European transition to a zero-carbon future, but the task is enormous and lacks implementation speed.
Read more in our latest edition of the Oxford Energy Forum: Issue 135 - Decarbonizing heat in the European buildings sector: options, progress and challenges
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Role of policies in the decarbonization of heat in the European buildings sector
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[post_date] => 2023-04-03 11:01:06
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the OIES Gas Research Programme, James Henderson talks to Nitin Zamre about his latest paper “Gas sector reforms in India: How will it change the market outlook?”. They start by reviewing the current state of the Indian gas market, looking at the main centers of demand as well as discussing the history of and prospects for indigenous supply. A key driver has been gas price reform, and so the podcast covers the history of price-setting in India and also looks at the prospects for the future, including the use of subsidies in specific sectors. In particular, Nitin discusses the sensitivity of the Indian market to the price of LNG imports, and he assesses the likelihood that the role of gas will really be to replace oil rather than coal in the Indian energy economy, meaning that the main hope for future demand is in City Gas Distribution, transport and industry rather than the power sector. Finally, the podcast addresses the issue of whether India is likely to hit its target of a 15% market share for gas by 2030. The answer is that, although it is unlikely by that date, this does not mean that gas cannot play a more important role in India in the 2030s and beyond.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Outlook for the Indian gas market
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[post_date] => 2023-03-30 11:01:47
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[post_content] => China’s Two Sessions – the yearly meetings of China's top legislature and top political advisory bodies – is a key date in the Chinese political calendar, and an important point to check the pulse of policy discussions in Beijing on energy and climate. This year held special significance as President Xi Jinping’s new leadership team begins its term. In this podcast, Michal Meidan, Head of China Research at OIES, along with Senior Research Fellows Philip Andrews-Speed and Anders Hove, discuss the Two Sessions and their implications for energy and climate. The podcast covers the main macroeconomic takeaways for growth and energy demand, the major policy tensions revealed (or reemphasised) by the government work reports, and the concerns about energy security that have risen to the fore in recent years. The guests discuss and debate whether the lower focus on climate is a reason for cautious pessimism, or whether the trend on renewables is justification for cautious optimism.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - China’s Two Sessions and their Implications for Energy and Climate
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[post_date] => 2023-03-28 10:59:56
[post_date_gmt] => 2023-03-28 09:59:56
[post_content] => On January 31st, 2023, S&P Global Commodity Insights (Platts) confirmed the inclusion of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Midland in the forward Brent (BFOET) contract from June 2023 and provided further guidance. This followed the introduction of WTI Midland into Dated Brent in June 2022. In this podcast David Ledesma talks with Adi Imsirovic and Kurt Chapman about this change and about how the change in Dated Brent, may be relatively straightforward, changes in the forward (or cash) contract are far more complex.
The latest version validates the industry’s movement towards the STASCO 2022 Cash BFOETM general terms and conditions (GT&Cs), with the seller of a forward Brent being able to deliver a cargo of WTI Midland on a ‘cost, insurance, and freight’ (CIF) Rotterdam basis into the contract. However, the forward Brent will remain a ‘free on board’ (FOB) contract by using a freight adjustment mechanism, assessing the delivered WTI Midland ‘as if it was loaded in the North Sea’.
Despite several forward Brent trades already done on the basis of the WTI Midland inclusion, there are some details that may need to be ironed out before the first ‘new forward Brent’ nominations are made in May 2023. Even earlier, the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) May Brent futures contract which expires in March, based on the ICE Brent Index, considers June forward and EFP trades for its methodology.
If history of Brent is anything to go by, it may take several years and an occasional bumpy ride to see the eventual, smooth incorporation of the WTI Midland into the Brent contract. In the long run, a successful inclusion of the US oil into the contract will likely lead to development and growth of liquid and transparent instruments for managing the risk of trading WTI Midland in the USGC.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - The New Forward Brent Benchmark
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[post_date] => 2023-03-23 10:38:12
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[post_content] => David Ledesma discusses with Alex Barnes the European Commission’s decision to make hydrogen a key part of its decarbonisation strategy. The 2022 REPowerEU Strategy set a target of 20MT consumption of renewable hydrogen by 2030. The Commission is keen to promote a single European market in hydrogen, similar to the current one for natural gas. To this end it has published proposals on the regulation of future European hydrogen infrastructure (pipelines, storage facilities and import terminals). The EU Council (representing Member States) and the EU Parliament are finalising their amendments to the Commission proposals, prior to 'trilogue' negotiations and final agreement later this year. The OIES’s paper 'The EU Hydrogen and Gas Decarbonisation Package: help or hindrance for the development of a European hydrogen market?’, published in March 2023, examines the EU Commission proposals and their suitability for a developing hydrogen market.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - The EU Hydrogen and Gas Decarbonisation Package
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[post_date] => 2023-03-20 11:11:57
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the OIES Gas Research Programme, James Henderson talks to Jack Sharples and Mike Fulwood about the current state of global gas markets. They start by reviewing prices, which have fallen sharply over the past six months, before considering the key drivers of supply and demand that have led to this outcome. They look at demand in Europe, which has been falling thanks to warm weather, and also discuss the various sources of gas supply to the region and the current levels of gas in storage. The conversation then moves on to consider demand for LNG outside of Europe, especially in China and other parts of Asia, before addressing the potential for an increase in global LNG supply in 2023. Finally, Mike and Jack give their views on the outlook for the rest of 2023 and into 2024, debating whether the current relatively benign situation can be maintained or whether there are significant risks on the horizon.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - An update on Global Gas Markets
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[post_date] => 2023-03-17 10:59:55
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[post_content] => In this podcast David Ledesma talks to Mohua Mukherjee about her recent paper titled "India's Ongoing Solar Rooftop Journey from 2017-2022". The discussion points out the striking contrast in terms of progress in India's utility scale solar performance, which is far ahead of expectations, and its rooftop solar performance which is far behind the initial targets. India is the first developing country to attempt a rooftop program at scale—the success stories are mainly from Germany, Australia and the US, and these programs are much older than India's, which started in 2017. However, the challenges of rooftop solar in India have emerged almost immediately and the government is currently engaged in a course-correction, which is referred to as Phase 2. Phase 2 seeks to be inclusive of the interests of distribution companies as well as residential customers. Residential customers were largely left out of Phase 1, despite receiving support from the government in the form of a 40% capital subsidy on their rooftop systems. Neither commercial lenders nor rooftop installers were interested in residential customers when there were much better prospects in the commercial and industrial category. Incentives have been changed in the Indian rooftop space. Net metering has all but disappeared under pressure from state distribution companies, and the capital subsidy is now restricted only to very small systems of up to 10kW, so that mainly residential users can benefit. India's experiences with the rooftop sector are likely to be repeated in many developing countries and therefore India's business models and experiments are a useful learning tool for other observers who will be considering the introduction of rooftop programs at scale to meet their NDCs.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Evolving Lessons from India’s Rooftop Solar Initiative
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[post_date] => 2023-03-16 10:58:42
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast, Michal Meidan talks to Yan Qin about Europe’s proposed carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) and its implications for China. Michal and Yan discuss the next steps for CBAM as well as the response in China: the official rhetoric as well as the response from Chinese industry. Even though the near term impact is limited, Yan argues that Chinese industrial stakeholders are growing increasingly worried about their competitiveness in Europe. Even though there are still many open questions about CBAM’s implementation, when extended to other sectors, it will become more meaningful for Chinese industries. But can China accelerate the roll out of its domestic emissions trading system or are the domestic constraints limiting progress?
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Can the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism accelerate progress on China’s emissions trading system?
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[post_date] => 2023-03-14 12:38:57
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[post_content] => The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2023, is now available.
- The oil market outlook in 2023 remains dominated by two main swing factors: the prospects of the global economy and the extent of Chinese demand rebound; and the potential impacts of EU sanctions and G7 price cap on Russian oil supplies. Since the start of the year, market expectations have been leaning towards the bullish narrative with the consensus pointing towards large disruptions in Russian supplies with crude production contracting y/y by around 1 mb/d in 2023 and a strong comeback of Chinese demand later in the year with hefty growth numbers put forward for 2023 of around 900,000 b/d and 1 mb/d. But as we nearly move past Q1, Russian supplies remain resilient, while confidence over China’s economic rebound and support policies remains volatile. Moreover, stickier than expected inflation and expectations of further monetary policy tightening continue to put pressure on oil prices, though the recent collapse of SVB and stresses in the banking system have caused some to revise these expectations in favor of lower interest rate hikes. Until the impacts of these factors are fully filtered through, volatility will remain the name of the game.
- Expectations over Russia’s supply disruptions remain little changed this month, with Russian crude production projected to decline by 510,000 b/d to 10.2 mb/d in 2023, from 10.7 mb/d in 2022. As the EU crude and products sanctions on Russian oil imports are now in full force, we expect the losses in pipeline crude and products exports to reach y/y at 680,000 b/d. These however will be partially offset by seaborne crude flows that are expected to hold near 2019 levels and grow y/y by 160,000 b/d to 3.51 mb/d from 3.35 mb/d in 2022.
- Global oil demand growth outlook is revised slightly higher to 1.7 mb/d in 2023, from 1.6 mb/d anticipated previously. The global demand outlook in 2023 continues to see small upticks with macro pressures persisting in the near-term, but the perceived risks become more balanced in H2 uplifting the low/high range between 1.2 mb/d and 2.1 mb/d. China’s ‘pro-growth’ policies to support its economic recovery remain subject to important headwinds pointing towards a slow and bumpy economic recovery ahead. This has led us to maintain our below-consensus of 680,000 mb/d demand growth forecast for China for 2023.
- Global oil supply growth for 2023 remains unchanged at 1.6 mb/d. Higher than previously anticipated output from Russia in Q1 is seen offsetting weaker expectations for non-OPEC crude growth outside OPEC+ led by the US. Reduced shale activity has led us to downgrade the US crude supply outlook by 90,000 b/d to 740,000 b/d in 2023.
- Refining margins remain near their post-war lows –albeit keeping at historically high levels– as product stocks particularly to Europe built very quickly in the months leading to the EU embargo on Russian product imports, US refinery runs continue to slowly recover, products from East of Suez find their way in Europe, and demand in Europe remains depressed. Product markets and prices however could see pressures fast returning as the spring maintenance season is underway amid constrained supplies, renewed concerns over EU refinery strikes, and product stocks remain well below their 5-year average.
- Our Reference forecast for Brent is slightly downgraded by $1.1/b to $94.6/b in 2023, from $95.7/b previously. The resilience of Russian supplies in January/February overshooting expectations despite the EU sanctions have pushed our reference price lower by $2/b in Q1, but the outlook strengthens again and converges with previous expectations from Q2-onwards as balances become tighter. The balance of risks for 2023 remains tilted to the downside by -$4/b, but negative risks are seen easing significantly in H2. The price band for the year ranges between $81.4/b and $103.9/b.
- We continue to forecast that the oil market will remain near balance in 2023, building a small 90,000 b/d surplus. We expect the oil market to build large surpluses in H1 of 1.2 mb/d and these to be offset by a -1.1 mb/d deficit in H2 as Chinese demand is expected to pick-up and Russian disruptions settle in. The supply/demand gap in 2023 ranges between -0.7 mb/d and 1.1 mb/d, while the recent OECD stockbuilds could reverse sooner than expected.
To purchase your copy of Issue 22 please click here.
Sponsors, Benefactors and Press please email Andreas Economou for a copy.
[post_title] => OIES Oil Monthly - Issue 22
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[post_date] => 2023-03-09 11:01:03
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Mostefa Ouki about his latest Energy Comment on the increasing gas relationship between Italy and North Africa and the possibility of the development of a Mediterranean gas hub. The discussion ranges from the export potential of countries such as Algeria, Libya and Egypt to the question of demand in Europe over the short, medium and long-term as issues of energy security merge into the outlook for gas demand during the energy transition. Mostefa also discusses the possibility of the export of decarbonised gas from North Africa, and he questions whether this is the best use of the region’s renewable resources. The podcast also covers the political risks of North African gas, the need for new investment if higher exports are to be sustained over the long-term and the potential for gas from the Eastern Mediterranean to become an increasing part of the supply mix over time.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Italy and its North African gas pipeline links: A potential new mid-Mediterranean gas ‘hub’?
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[post_date] => 2023-03-07 11:00:33
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[post_content] => David Ledesma discusses with Ralf Dickel the future need for cross border movements of CO2. To achieve net zero GHG emissions by mid-century there will need substantial improvements in efficiency and roll out of renewables, but also decarbonizing fossil energies results in large volumes of CO2 to be sequestered in geological structures found in oil and gas producing countries. Oil and gas importing countries lacking such structures will need to export CO2 captured to achieve their net zero targets. Conversely oil and gas exporting countries have to import CO2 for sequestration if they are serious in meeting net zero of scope 3 emissions, i.e. the CO2 emissions resulting from their exported fossil energies.
Norway today produces approximately 2 mbd oil and 110 Bcma of gas resulting in approximately 200-300 million tonnes of CO2 emissions, per annum. Norway’s CO2 sequestration potential of 70 Gt CO2 in the North Sea is far beyond its direct production of 42 million tonnes CO2 per annum. Germany will have to sequester CO2 production of 200-300 million tonnes of CO2 per annum, which is difficult to replace by renewables. Present legislation prohibits CO2 sequestration but allows CO2 transport and export. This complementary interest can refer to the successful coordination in the 1980s and 1990s of building a large gas export infrastructure on the Norwegian shelf, with a corresponding infrastructure upgrade for marketing the new Norwegian gas volumes.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Cross-border Transport of CO2
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[post_content] => China’s low-carbon energy transition depends on the power sector taking the lead. In this OIES podcast, we talk with Anders Hove, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute, to discuss his recent paper on China’s power sector energy transition. The paper looks at three questions: (1) Is the power sector transition on track, in terms of non-fossil and renewable capacity and output? (2) Are market reforms in the power sector a prerequisite for China’s low-carbon transition? (3) Do efforts at international experience sharing and topics of cooperative research require adjustment? In the podcast, Anders discusses where progress is being made in decarbonisation, but also areas such as power sector reform that are moving forward more slowly. But assuming the market reforms are a prerequisite for China’s decarbonisation may be misguided, while international cooperation on the power sector may be more useful if it focused on highlighting progress in technology or policy – both inside and outside China. In this episode, Hove outlines several areas of research the institute will undertake in 2023 in the power sector field, including research related to heat pumps, EV charging, and green power trading.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - What are we getting wrong about China’s power sector energy transition?
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[post_date] => 2023-03-01 11:00:36
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[post_content] => In this podcast, David Ledesma talks to Hasan Muslemani, Head of Carbon Management Research at OIES, about his ongoing research on greening the steel industry. Hasan discusses the outlook for incorporating low-carbon technologies into the sector, particularly carbon capture and storage (CCS) and hydrogen solutions. Barriers and opportunities for each technology are also discussed, including indications of the green premium that decarbonised steel would incur. Hasan also highlights key considerations to creating a green steel market, including potential buyers of the green product and how governments can help drive this transition.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Barriers and opportunities for greening steel production
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[post_date] => 2023-02-23 10:58:35
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[post_content] => In this podcast David Ledesma discusses with Ilia Bouchouev the latest developments related to an unprecedented release of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. They set the stage by describing the mission of the SPR and how its recent usage compares to previous episodes. An important distinction is made between SPR loans and SPR sales. They look at the SPR strategy from the perspective of the commercial storage manager. While a SPR loan is effectively an arbitrage strategy that generates returns with little risk, SPR sales are much more speculative as the outcome is highly dependent on future market prices. They debate the success of the current program and discuss its latest developments, including the cancellation of previously Congress-approved sales and the pilot program to buy barrels back in the market. They conclude with some thoughts on the optimal management of such a program.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Strategic Petroleum Reserve Strategy: risk-free return or return-free risk?
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[post_date] => 2023-02-21 10:59:36
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast, produced by the Gas Programme, James Henderson interviews Vitaly Yermakov about his latest paper “Catch 22 for Russia Gas: plenty of capacity amid disappearing market,” which was published in late January. In the podcast they discuss the sharp decline in Russian gas production in 2022, reviewing both the overall numbers but also the disparity between output from non-Gazprom producers, which actually increased slightly, and that of Gazprom, which had to play a balancing role. Vitaly discusses how Gazprom has managed this using the flexibility at its major fields, and also looks ahead to 2023 and beyond to assess how the company’s increased free capacity could allow gas to be made available for the Asian market and could also help the company reduce its capital expenditure over the next few years. Vitaly also talks about the future of Russian LNG, especially from the Yamal region, as well as touching on the prospects for a new pipeline export deal with China as Russia continues its attempts to find new markets for its gas as sales to Europe fall.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Reflections on Russian Gas Production
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[post_date] => 2023-02-16 11:06:22
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[post_content] => China’s electric vehicle (EV) and plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) market continued its incredible growth in 2022, reaching nearly 7 million in total domestic sales. The EV and PHEV market share reached 25% for the year and even surpassed 30% in the final months of the year. That’s up from just a 5% market share only two years ago.
In this podcast, Michal Meidan talks to OIES Senior Research Fellow Anders Hove about the main factors that have enabled China to achieve its rapid scale-up of EVs, and whether it can continue now that national subsidies have been removed. The podcast touches on charging infrastructure, consumer preferences, policy drivers such as carbon and air quality, as well as the role of policy versus other factors in understanding China’s EV revolution.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - An update on China’s EV Revolution
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[post_date] => 2023-02-15 11:58:51
[post_date_gmt] => 2023-02-15 11:58:51
[post_content] => This edition of the Oxford Energy Forum is dedicated to the challenges posed by the decarbonization of heat in the European buildings sector. Decarbonization of energy systems has become a key topic as both the EU and individual countries, including the UK, attempt to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. So far, the electricity sector has been the main focus of low-carbon policies, but if the region is to meet its long-term environmental target, efforts will need to expand to other sectors, including the heating sector, which is the region’s largest single energy user, covering about 50 per cent of its final energy demand.
Although the heating sector is moving towards low-carbon energy, almost half of the energy used in the residential sector still comes from the direct combustion of fossil fuels (natural gas, oil, and even some coal). In 2021, more than 35 per cent came from natural gas alone. Record high gas prices over the past 18 months have increased the focus on how we heat our homes, adding affordability and energy security concerns to the environmental benefits of decarbonizing the housing fleet.
The energy transition in the European buildings sector relies on two main pillars: lowering the energy demand and decarbonizing the energy supply. Reducing the energy needed to keep buildings warm can be done by improving the insulation and energy performance of existing buildings, supported by behavioural changes by consumers to increase energy conservation. Given the complexity of scaling up deep energy-efficiency retrofits and the significant proportion of old buildings in Europe, it is imperative to look for solutions to decarbonize the heat supply. Alternatives to fossil fuel sources for heating buildings are available (heat pumps, district heating, or even decarbonized gases), but there is no silver bullet and options need to be adapted to local needs and circumstances.
One of the key conclusions of this issue is that the decarbonization of buildings will need to have a central role in the transition to a zero-carbon future, but the task is enormous and lacks implementation speed. Much needs to be done, and some of it will take time. The 15 articles in this edition of the Oxford Energy Forum discuss some of the key aspects of the puzzle: the existing building stock, the pace and extent of renovation, and the existing low-carbon options with a focus on heat pumps and district heating, highlighting their main benefits but also the key challenges facing their deployment, the policies implemented and their shortcomings, the problems linked to inadequate taxation, the importance of local diversities, and the issue of energy poverty. Specific cases are used to illustrate these various questions.
[post_title] => Decarbonizing heat in the European buildings sector: options, progress and challenges - Issue 135
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[post_date] => 2023-02-14 11:17:01
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[post_content] => In this podcast David Ledesma talks with Rahmat Poudineh and Martin Palovic about their paper on integrating hydrogen into the European energy transfer infrastructure landscape. As hydrogen is expected to play an important role in European plans towards climate neutrality, adequate hydrogen transport (and storage) infrastructure needs to be established. However, hydrogen transport infrastructures are costly and have a long lead time. Furthermore, hydrogen can be transported via a variety of means: it can be transported as a gas via pipelines or liquid via road, rail and sea or even converted to derivatives such as ammonia or methanol for long distance transportation. It is also possible to transfer electrical energy instead of hydrogen and produce hydrogen in a decentralized way. From a system perspective, all these infrastructures represent elements of a grand hydrogen ‘polygrid’ that will be the backbone of the future decarbonized energy system. This raises the fundamental question of how to prevent inefficiency and infrastructure redundancy across different modes of hydrogen transport. The task is made more challenging by technological uncertainty, the unpredictability of future supply and demand for hydrogen, network externality effects, and investment irreversibility of grid-based infrastructures. In this podcast, we discuss three possible coordination approaches to optimise future cross-sectoral investment into hydrogen transport infrastructure and highlight their strengths and shortcomings.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - PolyGrid 2050: Integrating hydrogen into the European energy transfer infrastructure landscape
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[post_date] => 2023-02-08 11:20:02
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[post_content] => The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2023, is now available.
- The year started on a positive note, with inflationary pressures easing on the back of lower energy prices, the pessimism over global economy appearing to have had reached a peak and China’s faster than anticipated reopening boosting sentiment. Entering February, however, and just like most of 2022 the signals started to get mixed, as uncertainty over the impact of EU ban on Russian product imports comes into spotlight, the question of where we are in the interest hiking cycle remains open and sentiment over China’s recovery appears very volatile. Taken together, the first 35 days into 2023 reaffirmed that this will be the year of the aftershocks where elevated uncertainties across the board will continue to shape market expectations and balances, leading to another year of heightened price volatility.
- Russia’s supply resilience despite the enforcement of the EU crude sanctions on Dec 5, 2022, has led us to downgrade our Reference case of expected disruptions in Russian oil production for 2023 at 850,000 b/d below pre-war Jan/Feb-22 levels, from 1.1 mb/d anticipated previously. Russia’s crude production is expected to decline by 530,000 b/d to 10.2 mb/d in 2023, from 10.7 mb/d in 2022. Russian seaborne crude exports continue to weather the EU ban and G7 price cap, but unlike crude, Russia is facing more challenges marketing its products after the EU ban pertaining to the demand for its products, the viability of long-haul trade for its products, and the availability of clean tankers fleet to move its products. The extent of disruption on Russian products is expected to be seen in the first half of the year.
- Global oil demand growth outlook is upgraded by 150,000 b/d to 1.6 mb/d in 2023, from 1.5 mb/d anticipated previously. Revisions in Chinese demand drive the upgrades in 2023, but the outlook continues to reflect cautious rather than excessive optimism about the Chinese recovery in H2. Downside risks to the outlook persist but eased, with global oil demand in 2023 expected to move past the COVID shock in the second half of the year.
- Global oil supply growth is upgraded to 1.6 mb/d in 2023, an upward revision by 500,000 b/d, from 1.1 mb/d forecast previously. After rising by 4.7 mb/d in 2022, global oil supply growth is expected to slow this year closer to the 2010-2019 average of 1.5 mb/d and range between 1.2 mb/d and 2 mb/d, with the realization of Russian oil production remaining a wildcard.
- After a brief rally triggered by weather-related disruptions shutting 2.6 mb/d of US refining capacity and firmer Asian demand on China’s reopening, products cracks eased again recently as EU buyers intensified their buying spree ahead of the EU ban of Russian products lifting stocks, sluggish economic activity continues to weigh on demand, and China offering more products for exports. Middle distillates however remain elevated at historically high levels as the market will find it more challenging to adjust to the EU ban on Russian product imports, refining constraints and outages loom in the near-term horizon and China’s large availability of product exports is not guaranteed in 2023.
- Our Reference forecast for Brent is upgraded by $3/b to $95.7/b from $92.7/b previously. The price outlook strengthens beyond Q1 2023, supported by the latest profile of Russian supply disruptions that is carried forward into the year and expected to peak in Q2, confronting tighter market conditions amid improved Chinese demand. The balance of risks this month remains tilted to the downside, with Q2 appearing to be the most at risk to materialise as the weakest quarter to the balance in 2023, but $100/b could return from May-onwards if balances tighten faster.
- We forecast that the oil market will remain relatively balanced in 2023, building a small 300,000 b/d surplus. 2023 is shaping up to be a year of two halves with an expected 1.5 mb/d surplus in H1 being offset by a -900,000 b/d deficit in H2 to bring the market near balance, but market uncertainty in the year remains elevated.
To purchase your copy of Issue 21 please click here.
Sponsors, Benefactors and Press please email Andreas Economou for a copy.
[post_title] => OIES Oil Monthly - Issue 21
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[post_date] => 2023-02-07 11:00:54
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast the Gas Research Programme brings you a discussion on the outlook for gas markets in 2023, based on analysis in our latest Quarterly Gas Review. James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood, Jack Sharples and Anouk Honoré about the critical signposts to look out for over the next 12 months, including gas prices, the future of Russian supply to Europe, the outlook for global LNG, Asian gas demand, storage levels in Europe and the outlook for supply and demand in Europe during the year. Anouk Honoré then goes into more detail on the power sector in Europe, looking at the reasons why demand actually rose in 2022, despite high prices and an EU desire to cut consumption, and discusses whether similar drivers will appear in 2023.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Gas Quarterly: Outlook for Gas Markets in 2023
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[post_date] => 2023-02-02 11:05:58
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[post_content] => In this latest Podcast from the OIES China Energy Research Programme, David Ledesma talks to Michal Meidan, Anders Hove and Philip Andrews-Speed about the outlook for China in 2023. They discuss China’s reopening after three years of stringent COVID controls and the implications for energy demand as well as energy policy. They highlight their views on oil and gas demand and question the extent to which power outages are likely to plague China again this year, assuming that the economy recovers significantly in the second half of the year. They also discuss how China is balancing energy security, especially as it relates to coal production and consumption, with its climate ambitions.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - China Energy Outlook 2023
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[post_name] => oies-podcast-china-energy-outlook-2023
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[post_modified] => 2023-02-02 11:06:07
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[post_date] => 2023-01-31 11:24:57
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[post_content] => In this podcast, David Ledesma speaks to Hasan Muslemani and Mathieu Lucquiaud about their forthcoming research paper on the potential to generate negative emissions from European Waste-to-Energy (WtE) sector using carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology. The authors discuss the role that WtE can play in dealing with residual waste from municipal, commercial and industrial sources, and how CCS can play a role in mitigating respective emissions. Specifically, the authors point out that capturing CO2 from the biogenic content in waste has the potential to produce ‘negative emissions’ and proceed to describe a methodology for assessing overall negative emissions which can be captured from the waste sector in Europe. In their analysis, the authors rely on a number of criteria that would enable or prohibit the integration of carbon capture technology at the plant level, including proximity to industrial CCS clusters and geological storage sites, and the availability of space for CO2 capture retrofit around WtE plants. The authors conclude by emphasising the need to deal with untreated waste which is currently being landfilled - potentially through WtE with CCS – if adverse environmental impacts are to be avoided.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Carbon Capture from the Waste to Energy Sector
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[post_date] => 2023-01-26 11:05:35
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast the Gas Programme brings you a discussion of gas markets in South-East Europe and their efforts to diversify away from Russian gas. James Henderson talks to Julian Bowden about his latest paper on the topic, in which he outlines that although the region is relatively small in gas terms it nevertheless provides an interesting example of the general moves in Europe to establish greater flexibility of supply. Romania is the major market in the region and is largely supplied by its own domestic supply, but other countries have historically been very reliant on imports from Russia. However, this is changing rapidly thanks to the construction of a number of LNG import terminals, the building of important pipeline infrastructure to connect the countries in SE Europe with each other and with the rest of Europe, and the development of new upstream resources in the Black Sea, primarily in Romania and Turkey. When all these factors are combined it becomes clear that the supply mix is changing rapidly and that SE Europe could even have aspirations to become an important element in the EU’s overall diversification strategy, especially if the plans for new LNG import terminals are fulfilled.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Gas Markets in South East Europe
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[post_date] => 2023-01-24 11:52:20
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[post_content] => In this Podcast David Ledesma discusses with Stephen Craen, Visiting Research Fellow OIES, the challenges facing the financing of future hydrogen projects as it is expected that a substantial amount of capital will need to be invested in green hydrogen production to meet the 2050 net zero targets. Based around an ‘Archetype’ world scale hydrogen export project, where 1 GW solar power is used to make green hydrogen which is converted to 250,000 tpa green ammonia for export with a capital cost in the region of USD 2 billion, the podcast discusses how ‘efficient financing’ can make an important contribution to minimising cost and making projects cost competitive. Stephen Craen argues that lenders and investors will look to precedents when assessing the nascent green hydrogen sector and the foremost will be LNG and offshore wind, which both represent large-scale, technically complex projects. Commercial structures of the green hydrogen business are expected to borrow concepts from offshore wind projects, particularly in relation to price, but also from LNG where this is relevant, such as take-or-pay contracts. In this podcast we discuss the key issues that will need to be addressed to make a green hydrogen export project bankable, concluding that commercial debt from either commercial banks or project bonds can help create competition.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Hydrogen Financing
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[post_date] => 2023-01-19 12:42:19
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[post_content] => In this latest edition of our Key Themes series we examine a number of topics which we believe will be highly relevant to the global energy economy in 2023. The past twelve months have seen a huge re-prioritisation of energy policy away from environmental issues and towards energy security and affordability. Many of the articles in this document question whether this will be a long-term trend or whether sustainability will return to the top of the policymaking agenda once the short-term need to focus on security of supply has passed. Indeed, many of our contributors argue that the short-term rebalancing of the energy trilemma towards energy security may even bring environmental benefits in the longer term given the desire of many countries to reduce their exposure to hydrocarbons in the aftermath of the war in Ukraine and its energy-related consequences.
To help in assessing these questions and providing some initial responses we have grouped the articles in this Key Themes paper as follows. We start within an assessment of, and outlook for, the global oil market, before continuing with a series of articles on the European gas market. Moving to a more global perspective we then review the availability of LNG to meet European demand and what this might mean for other importing regions before assessing the impact of the re-opening of the Chinese economy, the energy implications of India taking over the G20 presidency, and the development of Africa’s hydrocarbon strategy as part of the energy transition. From an environmental perspective, we look at the issues that will likely be raised in the Global Stocktake which will take place in 2023 ahead of COP28 and also consider the critical financing issues that emerged from COP27 and need to be addressed during this year. We then review carbon markets and carbon removal technologies and the issue of accounting for greenhouse gas emissions in the energy value chain. We return to look at China, which has also pledged to issue a methane action plan this year but a rapid rebound in energy demand could delay climate action and lead policy makers to focus on avoiding power shortages. Moving to the electricity sector, we discuss why 2023 will be an important year for electricity market design in Europe and consider the resurgence of nuclear power across the world. Finally, we discuss the impact of the US’s Inflation Reduction Act on the development of hydrogen technology and ask whether it undermines activity elsewhere in the world. This list of themes is long but it is clearly not exhaustive. However, it highlights many of the topics which we will be researching at OIES during 2023 and we would encourage you to access our written output at www.oxfordenergy.org.
[post_title] => Key Themes for the Global Energy Economy in 2023
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[post_date] => 2023-01-18 11:47:22
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[post_content] => With an installed capacity of 56 GWe, China has the world’s third largest fleet of civilian nuclear reactors and its ambitious expansion programme will give it the largest fleet by 2030. In this podcast, Anders Hove talks to Philip Andrews-Speed about China’s nuclear programme: the policy priorities informing the nuclear build out and nuclear technologies—where China leads, but also where it faces challenges. Philip and Anders discuss how nuclear is perceived in China, how Chinese nuclear is viewed abroad as well as the outlook for additional exports of nuclear technology. Finally, they also talk about the outlook for nuclear development in China, the uncertainties and risks surrounding its build out.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Nuclear Power in China: its role in national energy policy
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[post_name] => nuclear-power-in-china-its-role-in-national-energy-policy-2
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[post_modified] => 2023-01-18 11:50:31
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[post_date] => 2023-01-12 12:21:12
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[post_content] => In this OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples about the current state of the global gas market and in particular the outlook for the supply and demand balance and prices in 2023. They examine the current state of supply to Europe, including Russian flows, LNG imports and other sources of pipeline gas before discussing demand in a number of regions of the world. They then consider the current state of European gas storage and what the outlook could be for 2023, before they finally discuss the outlook for prices and whether the current benign state of the market offers a positive outlook for the next 12 months or masks potential threats to supply and a risk of higher prices to come.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast – The Outlook for Global Gas Markets in 2023
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[post_name] => gas-programme-podcast-series-1-the-outlook-for-global-gas-markets-in-2023
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast David Ledesma talks to Michal Meidan and James Henderson about a forthcoming OIES research paper on the Key Themes for the Global Energy Economy in 2023. The overarching theme is the rebalancing of the energy trilemma, with energy security taking a more prominent position alongside affordability, while sustainability is a lower priority in the short-term. This is particularly evident in Europe, where the search for hydrocarbons to replace imports from Russia will continue to be prevalent in 2023, but the report also highlights that the rebalancing means different things in different regions of the world, with articles on China, India and Africa emphasizing this. However, 2023 will also be a vital year for continuing to pursue the energy transition agenda ahead of COP28, with electricity market design, the future of nuclear energy, the operationalisation of voluntary carbon markets, the development of GHG emissions standards and further work on climate finance issues all being priorities. In addition, the global stocktake will establish whether the world is on target to meet its climate pledges and could reopen the debate between the Global South and the Global North on responsibility and loss and damage payments. Meanwhile the outlook for short-term oil and gas market supply and demand remains critical as high prices continue to weigh on the global economy. The podcast provides highlights of all these issues as a taster of the Key Themes for 2023 paper that is published in mid-January 2023.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Key Themes for the Global Energy Economy in 2023
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[post_date] => 2022-12-19 10:06:50
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast, David Ledesma discusses the global oil market dynamics with Bassam Fattouh and Andreas Economou as another turbulent year characterised by extreme shocks, heightened uncertainty and very disconnected narratives draws to a close. They discuss the current state of the oil market and assess the expectations and the eventual realization of oil prices in 2022. Next, they dive deeper on the impact of Russia-Ukraine war on oil markets in terms of the size of Russian supply disruptions, the transformation in trade flows and the implications of the EU embargo and price cap for Russian oil and physical flows. In particular, the effectiveness of the price cap and potential response from Russia come into focus. They also consider the future of Russia within OPEC+ and review the Group’s latest output policy decisions and next steps. Finally, the discussion turns to the oil market and price outlook for 2023 and concludes by assessing how transformative have been this year’s shocks for the short and long-run evolution of oil markets.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Oil Markets in Flux as Uncertainties Abound
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[post_date] => 2022-12-15 11:27:07
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[post_content] => In this podcast David Ledesma talks to Trisha Curtis, CEO of PetroNerds, about US gas and oil production, transportation and markets. US gas production has performed well since COVID and additional supply growth is clearly possible, but investment in infrastructure will require consistent regulatory and political support. Technology is also key, with production rigs having longer lateral lengths to increase and maximise gas production. The podcast further discusses oil and gas production trajectory and how environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) is imposing pressure on public oil and gas companies. Concluding the podcast, Trisha gives a view on what is required for LNG exports to Europe to rise (in Europe and North America) and how LNG exports can fit into Europe's Energy Transition ambitions?
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - US Shale Oil and Gas, continued growth or curtailment - can Europe rely on additional US shale for LNG?
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[post_date] => 2022-12-12 10:37:42
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples about the key developments in the European gas market over the past few weeks. They discuss recent price movements and the impact of cold weather finally arriving in Europe, and also look at the prospect for Russian flows being cut further as the exports through Ukraine appear to be under threat. They consider the continuing record level of LNG flows into the continent and discuss whether this is likely to continue into 2023, especially if and when China starts to open up from its COVID lockdowns. On the topic of storage, gas is now finally being withdrawn following an extended period of injection, and a key question remains how low storage levels will go by the end of winter and therefore how much will need to be injected next summer. The question of gas availability could be equally, if not more, pressing next year. Finally, the podcast also looks at the availability of LNG import capacity in Europe over the next 12 months and also considers the continuing flows of Russian LNG, even as pipe exports have declined.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast Series: Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 23
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[post_date] => 2022-12-08 12:06:19
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[post_content] => In this podcast, David Ledesma talks to Hasan Muslemani about the new Carbon Management Research Programme recently launched by OIES. As head of this research, Hasan discusses the structure and objectives of the programme which will focus on three aspects: 1) carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies in energy and industrial sectors, 2) nature- and tech-based carbon removal solutions and 3) the role of carbon markets - both voluntary and compliance - in mobilizing investments into these technologies. Specifically, the programme will evaluate viable business models for CCS and carbon removal technologies in different regions and sectors and investigate some of the hottest topics within these spaces, such as potential for cost reductions, permanence, and emissions accounting. In the podcast, Hasan also emphasizes the need for carbon management at a corporate level and the distinction between the claims that can be made by investing in different types of solutions. The research outcomes out of this programme will be published in the form of papers and podcasts, so keep an eye on this space. Individuals and corporations who are interested in collaborating or learning more learn more about this initiative are advised to contact Hasan directly.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - OIES Carbon Management Research Programme
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[post_date] => 2022-12-05 14:36:32
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[post_content] => In the latest OIES podcast, the 22nd in the series on the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on energy markets, James Henderson speaks to Alex Barnes about his latest research on the reaction of the European Commission to the energy crisis and to high gas prices. They discuss the latest proposals to impose a cap on the wholesale gas price in Europe and analyse whether it is workable in its current form or whether it is likely to be adjusted before being passed not law. They also consider the reactions of various member states to the proposal as there are a number of different views on whether a gas cap is a good idea in principle and whether the current proposal is satisfactory. Alex also reviews the proposal for a joint purchasing agreement for gas, explain the details around both procurement and demand allocation, while also reviewing the proposal for ACER, the European regulator, to create an LNG benchmark by March 2023. The discussion looks both at the short-term implications for prices in Europe but also considers the longer term implications for the structure of the European gas market overall.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast Series: Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 22
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[post_content] => Oxford Institute for Energy Studies in collaboration with Fundación Naturgy organised a webinar on International Gas Contracts: Between Flexibility, Security and Decarbonization.
The webinar discusses international gas contracts in the current context of the Russia-Ukraine War and market volatility and the energy transition and decarbonization.
Link to Webinar.
[post_title] => Webinar - International gas contracts: between flexibility, security & decarbonization
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[post_date] => 2022-11-30 11:09:38
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[post_content] => The COP27 conference was held in Sharm El Sheikh in November 2022, and although expectations going into the event were tempered by geopolitics and the energy crisis there was hope for movement on a number of key issues. David Ledesma discusses the main conclusions of the conference with James Henderson, who was one of the OIES team who attended the COP. They discuss the progress, or lack of it, on mitigation issues and review whether the 1.5 degree target it still really alive. They also analyse whether some of the key objectives of African countries and developing nations from the Global South, especially on finance and the formation of a loss & damage fund. The podcast also looks at a number of the other main themes of the conference, which included progress on the Global Methane Pledge, the role of oil and gas companies and exporting countries, the potential for a changing role for the World Bank and the future of US-China relations on environmental issues. James Henderson also looks forward to COP28, due to be held in the UAE in 2023, and discusses the importance of the Global Stocktake, which will take place over the next 12 months.
[post_title] => COP27 Podcast Series – 7: Post Meeting Update
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[post_date] => 2022-11-25 10:45:11
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[post_content] => Much of the world requires winter heating and in most places this heating is still provided by fossil fuels. In this podcast David Ledesma discusses Northern China with Philip Andrews-Speed, Senior Research Fellow at OIES and Yuchao Xu, graduate from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, where this problem is particularly acute as coal and biomass have long been the fuel of choice for household heating. In 2016, China’s government launched a vigorous programme to deploy “clean heating” fuels and technologies to households. The coal-rich province of Shanxi followed through with its own mix of implementing measures. Between 2016 and 2020, these met with a relatively high degree of success but encountered two sets of challenges. First, high costs placed a burden on households and local governments. Second, hasty implementation to achieve targets led to poor coordination and planning.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Managing the social consequences of the transition away from coal: the case of clean heating in Shanxi Province, China
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[post_date] => 2022-11-23 13:25:06
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[post_content] => In this podcast, David Ledesma talks with Agnieszka Ason, Senior Visiting Research Fellow at the OIES and Manuel Calvo Diaz, Energy and Environment Director of the Naturgy Foundation about the new OIES paper on International Gas Contracts, which was prepared with support from the Naturgy Foundation. The paper explains the fundamentals of Gas Supply Agreements for pipeline gas (GSAs) and Sale and Purchase Agreements for LNG (LNG SPAs), which combine various commercial choices of the parties and their shared outlook for market changes. The paper identifies the key challenges for international gas contracting, including (1) flexibility, (2) security, and (3) decarbonisation. It also highlights the market’s re-focus on long-term LNG SPAs amidst the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - International Gas Contracts
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[post_modified] => 2022-11-23 13:39:18
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[post_date] => 2022-11-18 11:24:34
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[post_content] => The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2023, is now available.
- The oil market outlook continues to be shaped by opposing factors. On the macro front, the growth prospects of the global economy continue to deteriorate and optimism that China will alter its zero-COVID policy and stimulate its economy proved to be premature. On the micro-oil front, the Russian oil supplies are coming much more into focus as the EU embargo comes into force on December 5, along with a price cap on Russian crude exports that is already being seen with caution by some Chinese and Indian buyers of Russian cargoes.
- Russia’s oil production continues to hold relatively steady leading us to maintain our Reference case of expected disruptions in Russian supplies in 2023 at 1.2 mb/d below pre-war levels. Russia’s crude production is expected to rise y/y by 147,000 b/d to 10.67 mb/d in 2022 from 10.52 mb/d in 2021, before contracting by 844,000 b/d in 2023 to 9.83 mb/d. The net disruption in total Russian oil exports in March/October 2022 averaged 329,000 b/d compared to the pre-war January/February levels and we now expect the disruption of another 901,000 b/d throughout the forecast horizon.
- Global oil demand growth outlook remains relatively unchanged at 1.8 mb/d in 2022 but is further downgraded by 180,000 b/d to 1.5 mb/d in 2023. Expectations of y/y contractions over Q4 2022 and Q1 2023 are maintained, but global demand growth in 2023 could find support from China that is forecast to grow y/y by 550,000 b/d –albeit with a large base effect– and y/y gains in jet fuel demand that grows by 680,000 b/d outpacing all other products.
- Global oil supply growth is downgraded to 4.5 mb/d in 2022 from 4.6 mb/d forecast previously and to 0.8 mb/d in 2023 from 1 mb/d. Non-OPEC+ underperformance due to unplanned outages, capacity constraints and operational challenges, and the fading prospects of Iran’s oil return have pushed lower our global supply growth outlook in 2023 by 270,000 b/d. With most OPEC+ oil producers already producing far below their quotas, we project the actual cut in November to be less than half the size of the headline 2 mb/d target, ranging between 720,000 b/d and 860,000 b/d.
- Product markets retreated but tightness persists, with the EU diesel squeeze far from resolved. Product cracks eased in early-November from their record-highs the month before, as supply shortages in Europe due to the strike actions were resolved, product exports from China rose and slowing economic activity continued to depress demand. Persistently low inventories however particularly for middle distillates, new strike actions and protracted maintenance in Europe, global capacity constraints and the upcoming EU ban on Russian imports are set to continue providing strong support particularly on the Atlantic basin sustaining margins at elevated levels.
- Our Reference forecast for Brent is relatively unchanged to $101.2/b in 2022 and to $94.2/b in 2023. Worsening near-term outlook on negative demand pressures offsets small supply-driven gains in November/December and is expected to drag prices below $90/b in Q1 2023 before rebounding in the second half of the year and potentially breaking again the $100/b mark towards year-end. The balance of risks this month remains tilted to the downside in both years by -$0.9/b and -$6.4/b, respectively, with demand-side risks associated with a longer period of global growth weakness continuing to weigh on the outlook in 2023 and any upside potential remaining relatively weak.
- We forecast a 0.35 mb/d surplus in 2022 and a -0.43 mb/d deficit in 2023. Market surpluses are projected to persist for five-consecutive quarters (through Q2 2022 to Q2 2023) for the first time since the Q1 2016 oil market downturn, albeit balances are expected to tighten again from Q2 2023-onwards supported mainly by the gradual reopening of the Chinese economy in H2. The stocks replenishment gains momentum but progress continues to remain slow.
To purchase your copy of Issue 19 please click here.
Sponsors, Benefactors and Press please email Andreas Economou for a copy.
[post_title] => OIES Oil Monthly - Issue 19
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[post_date] => 2022-11-14 12:31:42
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[post_content] => In the latest OIES podcast James Henderson discusses current gas market dynamics with Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples in the light of the impact of the Russia Ukraine war. They start by assessing recent movements in prices, considering the differential between spot and month forward prices while also looking at the overall fall in price levels thanks to the current warm weather and the demand reduction caused by high prices and a change in consumer behaviours. Next they move onto an overall assessment of gas demand in Europe and the movements in supply sources, before looking at the level of gas in storage and the outlook for winter 2022/23. In particular they focus on the levels of potential drawdown in stocks and the potential implications for the gas market in 2023, concluding that a rapid and significant drawdown over the next 5 months would be difficult to replenish next summer. Finally, they consider the outlook for LNG supply in 2023 and the potential for a rebound in demand in Asia, and discuss the possible implications for availability of supply to Europe and other gas importing regions.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast Series: Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 21 – Global Gas Markets
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[post_date] => 2022-11-09 11:50:24
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast, David Ledesma talks to David Sandalow and Michal Meidan about their recent book, Guide to Chinese Climate Policy 2022 which they co-authored with Dr Philip Andrews-Speed, Anders Hove, Sally Qiu and Edmund Downie, published by the OIES’s in November 2022. In the podcast they discuss the rationale for the book, the changes they note in China's climate policy since the Guide was last published in 2019 as well as some of the contrasts in China's climate policy. They talk about the ongoing importance of coal and the rapid roll out of renewables, changes in how China thinks about the Belt and Road and some of the key takeaways from the 2022 edition of the Guide to Chinese Climate Policy.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Guide to Chinese Climate Policy 2022
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[post_date] => 2022-11-03 12:19:53
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[post_content] => This issue of the Oxford Energy Forum (OEF) is dedicated to the future of energy networks in a decarbonised world. The net-zero carbon target will result in a significant change in energy systems with important implications for existing energy networks. Electricity networks are going to bear the brunt of energy sector transformation because of their role in the decarbonization of the transport, building and industrial sectors. The increased variability of supply and demand along with penetration of distributed energy resources can create new constraints in electricity networks and thus necessitate more efficient utilization of existing grid assets, new grid investments, and in some cases even new overall grid and electricity market designs. The future of natural gas networks, however, is highly uncertain especially at the low-pressure distribution level. An idea is to repurpose existing gas infrastructures to transport hydrogen but that is not straightforward. There are other energy networks such as district heating and cooling which although currently they have a little energy demand market share globally, their share is expected to increase because of their advantage over individual heating/cooling systems in high-density built environments. These all mean that it is necessary to understand how best to design, regulate, integrate and operate existing and emerging energy networks in order to lower the costs and challenges of achieving decarbonisation targets.
[post_title] => The Future of Energy Networks in a Decarbonized World - Issue 134
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[post_date] => 2022-11-02 14:37:14
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[post_content] => In the sixth and final podcast of OIES’s pre-COP27 series, David Ledesma talks to Michal Meidan and James Henderson about the challenges facing the participants at the forthcoming COP27 conference that is being held 6-18th November in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. The discussion covers the key issues for COP27 as well as the most contentious issues that will need to be tackled. The speakers take stock of what has (and hasn’t) happened since COP26 in Glasgow, discuss China-US relations and China’s approach to the conference as well as its potential role as “the leader of the Global South”. Finally, the speakers discuss the nexus between domestic politics and COP27, given that the meeting in Egypt coincides with the mid-term elections in the US, and convenes as Europe grapples with the energy implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Can the EU still position itself as a global climate leader?
[post_title] => COP27 Podcast Series – 6: Issues, Challenges and Potential Outcomes of COP27
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[post_date] => 2022-10-27 14:26:14
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[post_content] => The fifth podcast of the OIES’s six-part COP27 series addresses the importance of technology in delivering the COP27 pledges. David Ledesma and James Henderson talk to Dolf Gielen about the Breakthrough Agenda, announced at COP26, and the key technologies which are its focus, to Martin Lambert about his views on the future of green gases, including hydrogen, and to Rez Maddahi, who examines the importance of CCUS, BECCS and DACCS technologies.
[post_title] => COP27 Podcast Series – 5: The importance of technology in delivering the COP27 pledges
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[post_content] => The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2023, is now available.
- Weaker global growth prospects amid persistent inflationary pressures and monetary policy tightening coupled with a delayed recovery in Chinese demand have become the key factors influencing sentiment and driving the outlook in 2023, dominating oil supply factors and expectations of a large Russian supply disruption as the EU embargo comes into force in December.
- The resilience of Russian oil production and ability to redirect sanctioned crude have led us to narrow the range of expected disruptions in 2023. The prospects of Russian supply disruptions under our Reference case are downgraded to 1.25 mb/d from 1.5 mb/d projected last month, with Russian crude production expected to fall to 9.8 mb/d in 2023 from 10.6 mb/d in 2022.
- Global oil demand growth is downgraded to 1.8 mb/d from 2.2 mb/d in 2022 and to 1.7 mb/d from 2.1 mb/d in 2023. The largest downward revisions in 2022 are stemming from China associated with H2 and a later than previously expected end to COVID restrictions. In 2023, downgrades in OECD demand growth and further downward revisions in Chinese demand growth on a more gradual recovery as a large stimulus remains unlikely further weighing on the outlook. Risks to oil demand growth are firmly tilted to the downside as the duration and extent of the ongoing macro pressures continue to weigh on the outlook in 2023.
- Global oil supply growth is downgraded to 4.6 mb/d in 2022 from 4.8 mb/d forecast previously and to 1 mb/d in 2023 from 1.7 mb/d. In response to weakening market balances and consistent with past behavior of acting preemptively, OPEC+ announced an output cut of 2 mb/d. Given that most member countries are producing well below their quotas, the cut in ‘real’ barrels is lower ranging between 880,000 b/d and 1.2 mb/d. The downward revisions to the supply outlook were moderated by a 270,000 b/d upgrade of Russian production in 2023 and modest gains in non-OPEC growth.
- The products markets, particularly diesel, remain tight. The decline in Russian products exports to Europe and prospect of further disruptions as the EU ban comes into effect; capacity constraints in the US that could potentially fill the Russian gap in the EU as an alternative source of diesel imports; and uncertainty over China’s diesel offering overseas following the latest batch of products export quotas, are all factors contributing to tightness in the diesel markets that has already pushed diesel cracks to new record highs and contributing to their volatility.
- Our Reference forecast for Brent is downgraded to $100.8/b from $105.1/b in 2022 and to $94/b from $105.8/b in 2023. We expect Brent to remain in the low-$90s towards year end and to retreat further in the $80s in H1 2023 on negative demand pressures, before rebounding in the second half of the year and potentially breaking again the $100/b mark in Q4. A deeper recession could push Brent lower in the high-$70s by the end of 2022 but we see a $70/b price floor in 2023 supported by the latest OPEC+ output cuts. On the upside, oil prices are not seen departing much higher than $110/b throughout 2023. The balance of risks this month is further skewed on the downside with negative demand risks associated with a longer period of weakness in global growth dominating the outlook in 2023.
- We forecast a 0.4 mb/d surplus in 2022 and a -0.3 mb/d deficit in 2023. Despite the OPEC+ cuts, the projected market surpluses in H2 2022 and H1 2023 are upgraded by 120,000 b/d to 1.1 mb/d and by 170,000 b/d to 700,000 b/d, respectively. Although the stocks build-up is expected to accelerate towards H1 2023, product stocks are starting from a very low base hindering the overall stocks recovery in 2023.
To purchase your copy of Issue 18 please click here.
Sponsors, Benefactors and Press please email Andreas Economou for a copy.
[post_title] => OIES Oil Monthly - Issue 18
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[post_date] => 2022-10-21 12:42:49
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[post_content] => In the fourth podcast of the OIES’s six-part COP27 series, we address the outlook and challenges that will be faced at COP27 by three major regions. The podcast talks to Isabel Hilton about China’s climate change policy, Sarah Ladislaw about the recent changes in US climate legislation and its potential impact on COP27 and Klaus Dieter Borchardt on European climate policy and the region’s likely influence at COP27.
[post_title] => COP27 Podcast Series – 4: Outlook and challenges that will be faced at COP27, China, USA and Europe
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[post_date] => 2022-10-19 11:45:19
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[post_content] => In this latest edition of the Oxford Energy Forum we include a series of 18 articles on issues relevant to the upcoming discussions at COP27, which will be held in Egypt in November 2022. The articles cover a wide range of issues, starting with the current state of environmental diplomacy in the wake of the global geopolitical turbulence caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. We then address the perspectives of multiple actors ahead of the conference, focussing in particular on the divergent views between countries from the developed and developing world. In particular we reflect the emerging dissatisfaction of countries from the Global South and the need for countries from the developed world to provide the finance and technology that have been promised before but not delivered. We also look at various other important topics such as the development of new technologies, the global methane pledge, green finance, the prospects for nuclear power and hydrogen, and the development of carbon markets and consider how they will be discussed as part of the COP process. The overall aim is for this edition of the OEF to be an important primer ahead of COP27, to provide readers with an overview of the key issues which will determine the success or failure of the negotiations in Sharm El-Sheikh.
[post_title] => CO27: Refocusing the world on the energy transition agenda - Issue 133
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood, Jack Sharples and Jonathan Stern about the continuing impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on gas markets. This episode reviews the current flows of gas into Europe from all sources, in particular looking at the continuing decline in imports from Russia and the surprising continuation of very high imports of LNG. We also consider stock levels in Europe ahead of the winter and the prospects for meeting demand under different weather conditions. Jonathan Stern then discusses the latest pronouncements from the EU about price caps and considers whether the ideas are practically workable or just a political wish list. He also reviews the German decision to offer large subsidies to support retail and industrial consumers and wonders how this might affect political strategies in other member states. Finally, we look at the forecasts for the UK over the winter, reflecting on pronouncements that there may be a shortage of gas if a lengthy cold spell arrives and concluding that on balance there should be enough supply to meet demand – just, and at a price.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast Series: Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 20 – European Gas Markets
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[post_date] => 2022-10-12 12:40:18
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[post_content] => In the third podcast of the OIES’s six-part COP27 series, David Ledesma and James Henderson talk to Anders Hove on the role of electric vehicles in the Energy Transition, Jonathan Stern on the need for action on global methane pledges and with Adnan Shihab-Eldin on nuclear power and how its role in the energy transition could feature in the COP negotiations.
[post_title] => COP27 Podcast Series – 3: Outlook and challenges that will be faced at COP27, EVs, global methane pledges and role of nuclear
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[post_date] => 2022-10-05 11:30:31
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[post_content] => In this the second podcast in the OIES’s six-part COP27 series, we look at the outlook and challenges that will be faced at COP27 for two major energy demand centres and one Middle Eastern energy supplier. Mostefa Ouki talks about the host region Africa and the challenges and positions it will put forward at the conference. Mohua Mukherjee then talks about India and its approach to the conference before Noura Mansouri gives a view about Saudi Arabia’s position as a major hydrocarbon exporter with an energy transition strategy.
[post_title] => COP27 Podcast Series - 2: Outlook and challenges that will be faced at COP27, Africa, India and Saudi Arabia
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[post_date] => 2022-10-03 12:51:42
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[post_content] => OIES hosted a webinar in which research fellows debated the possibility of price caps on European wholesale gas prices and their likely impact, discussed the possibility negotiations with gas suppliers to Europe (both pipeline and LNG) to moderate prices and also likely EU response to a complete curtailment of Russian gas supply in the next few months. The webinar also covered the electricity market, addressing the question of the decoupling of gas and electricity prices, the Iberian example for managing electricity prices and the current EU proposal to cap the prices charged by inframarginal power producers. A broad Q&A session also looked at the EU solidarity arrangements, the potential for policies to constrain energy demand in Europe and the possible reaction of Asian buyers to price caps in Europe.
https://vimeo.com/756373215
[post_title] => OIES Webinar - Price Caps in Europe's Energy Markets
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[post_date] => 2022-09-29 11:39:32
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[post_content] => This the first podcast in a six-part series ahead of COP 27 in which the OIES addresses the outlook for this important climate conference. In discussion, James Henderson and Mari Luomi give their views on the main issues that are likely to be on the agenda at the conference that is being held on the 6-18 November in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt and what the key challenges will be. The podcast looks back at the major outcomes from the Glasgow hosted COP26 in 2021 and how the political landscape since then has changed the priorities of governments and decision makers. It also talks about how the recent IPCC reports have framed the climate debate for COP27 and how the objectives of this COP will be based around the concerns of the developing world, especially Africa.
[post_title] => COP27 Podcast Series 1: The key issues and challenges for COP27
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[post_date] => 2022-09-26 12:35:17
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood, Jack Sharples and Jonathan Stern about the current state of gas supply in Europe and about the reaction of the EU and some European countries to the current high prices as we head towards winter. We review the current flows of pipeline gas into Europe and look at LNG imports and send-out to the European market, before updating the storage situation and the increasing tightness of the market. The majority of the podcast, though, is spent discussing EU plans for a price cap in the wholesale market and the relevance of the TTF benchmark. We debate whether TTF can be sustained as a relevant benchmark providing useful price signals – we argue that it can and should – before looking at alternative means to negotiate with suppliers for lower prices during the winter of 2022/23. We discuss how negotiations could take place with supplies of pipeline gas and LNG and who the most important players might be on the European side, pondering the idea of a single buyer and the role of Transmission System Operators (TSOs) in the management of prices. We also consider what the longer-term implications for the European market might be, and summarise our views on what the best, and worst, outcomes might be.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast Series: Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 19
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[post_content] => In this podcast David Ledesma talks with Rahmat Poudineh, Senior Research Fellow, and Aliaksei Patonia, Research Fellow on issues and options with respect to long distance transportation of the hydrogen.
Hydrogen currently is mainly a local or regional commodity. If hydrogen is to become a truly global-traded commodity, it needs to be transported over long transoceanic distances in an economical way. However, unlike natural gas, shipping compressed or liquefied hydrogen over long distances is very inefficient and expensive. At the same time, hydrogen can be converted into multiple carriers with a higher energy density and higher transport capacity such as liquid ammonia, toluene/methylcyclohexane (MCH) or methanol. These chemicals have their own advantages and drawbacks and their techno-economic characteristics in terms of boil-off gas and thermodynamic and conversion losses play a key role in the efficiency of transoceanic transportation of the hydrogen.
On the other hand, apart from techno-economic features, there are other factors to consider for long distance transportation of the hydrogen via its careers. Here, such issues as safety, public acceptance as well as legal and regulatory constraints may come into play. Another factor is the availability of the industries and infrastructures already developed around any of possible hydrogen carriers as well as their potential industrial applicability beyond hydrogen. Finally, technological progress in other decarbonization applications and, most importantly, full commercialization of CCUS solutions is likely to dramatically change the approach towards long distance hydrogen transportation.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Global trade of hydrogen: what is the best way to transfer hydrogen over long distances?
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[post_content] => The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2023, is now available.
- The resilience of Russian production so far and ability of Russian producers to divert large volumes of crude from Europe to other markets have led us to revise down the size of the expected disruptions in Russian oil production by 240,000 b/d to 630,000 b/d in 2022 and by 500,000 b/d to 1.5 mb/d in 2023. On the lower bound, Russian disruptions are expected to reach near the previous high of 900,000 b/d by year-end and peak at 1.2 mb/d in February 2023, to average 1 mb/d for the year. Considering the confirmation by G7 to review and finalize a price cap measure on Russian oil, this month we also consider a high case scenario under which a price cap is hypothetically imposed in early-December and Russia responds by cutting its production by 3 mb/d compared to pre-invasion levels close to 8.1 mb/d. Both high/low Russian disruption scenarios are included in our balance of risks for this month.
- Global oil demand growth is unchanged to 2.2 mb/d in 2022 and is upgraded to 2.1 mb/d in 2023, from 1.6 mb/d forecast previously. The upgrade in 2023 stems mainly from including in our reference case the assumption that gas-to-oil substitution will lead to 460,000 b/d incremental demand between October 2022 and March 2023. Furthermore, China’s underperformance in Q3 due to the recent COVID flare-ups and strict state-policies against COVID coupled with domestic economic challenges has led us to downgrade Chinese demand growth in 2022 and we now expect a mild contraction by 0.1 mb/d. In 2023, China’s demand growth is forecast to rebound by 0.8 mb/d from 0.4 mb/d previously.
- Global oil supply growth is upgraded to 4.8 mb/d in 2022 from 4.7 mb/d forecast previously and to 1.7 mb/d in 2023 from 1 mb/d. OPEC crude oil output is expected to reach to a new post-pandemic high in Q4, albeit many producers have already reached their maximum capacity. As of August, we estimate that OPEC+ output remained 3.5 mb/d below target production, while since April 2020 that marked the start of the current deal OPEC producers lost 500,000 b/d of productive capacity with African producers alone accounting for a loss of 850,000 b/d. Non-OPEC crude supply outlook improved and is projected to grow by 1.1 mb/d in 2022 and by 0.2 mb/d in 2023, but gains excluding the Russian revisions remain marginal.
- The products markets remain unsettled, with global diesel/gasoil supplies severely tight. Refinery margins bounced back in August, but the latest hike lacked support as tight middle distillate supplies were confronted by weak rebound in Chinese demand amid the possibility of another large batch of products export quotas in October, recession fears in Europe and the US, the so far limited impact on Russian product exports particularly in Europe and a mild start to the US hurricane season. Higher disruptions in Russian exports towards year-end, a strong comeback of Chinese demand in Q4 and high gas-to-oil switching could provide important support in the coming winter months.
- Our Reference forecast for Brent is downgraded by $5.9/b to $105.1/b in 2022 and by $0.6/b to $105.8/b in 2023. For Q4 2022, we expect Brent to bounce back in the $100s supported by supply pressures, demand offsets and thin buffers, and peak in the mid-$110/b in Q1 2023 before retreating again around $100/b for the remainder of the year. The balance of risks this month is further skewed on the downside with supply risks reflecting the extent of Russian disruptions returning in the very near-term, but negative demand risks escalating towards year-end and dominating in 2023. The Brent Prospect that takes into account the uncertainty underlying the outlook edges lower than our reference forecast in both years to $102.6/b in 2022 and $95.8/b in 2023.
- We forecast a 0.3 mb/d surplus in 2022 and a -0.1 mb/d deficit in 2023. The uncertainty engulfing the oil market in 2023 remains elevated reflecting both endogenous supply/demand outcomes that are subject to shocks within the oil market, but also external factors such as policy actions/responses that could impact and change this outcome by generating shocks outside the oil market. This uncertainty is reflected on the global balance risks that show the supply/demand gap in 2023 ranging between -1.9 mb/d and 2.8 mb/d.
To purchase your copy of Issue 17 please click here.
Sponsors, Benefactors and Press please email Andreas Economou for a copy.
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[post_content] => In this podcast David Ledesma talks to Nicolas Lockhart and Katherine Connolly on the critical question of how should we tackle aviation emissions? Two different regulatory schemes – the EU’s Emission Trading System (ETS) and the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) – are trying to provide an answer. Whereas the EU’s ETS will require operators to purchase allowances covering their total emissions on covered flights, CORSIA will require operators to purchase carbon credits to offset emissions growth. Both are market-based mechanisms which put a price on carbon, but work in very different ways, with potentially very different impacts. The podcast unpacks the key differences in the two schemes, how they will interact, and look around the corner to see what’s coming next in the national and international regulation of these emissions.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Carbon pricing schemes for Aviation
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks with Mike Fulwood, Jack Sharples and David Robinson about the latest news on the flow of Russian gas to Europe and the increasing moves by the EU and national governments to prepare for the winter months and reduce the energy price impact on consumers. The first topic is the closure of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline and its impact on the availability of gas in Europe. The discussion then moves to the level of gas storage in Europe and the likelihood that other pipelines bringing Russian gas through Ukraine and Turkey might also be shut down at some point. The question of physical gas availability in the winter of 2022/23 is then reviewed, and we also look at moves by the EU to limit the level of gas price increases and volatility. The UK’s plans to cap energy prices for residential and industrial customers are then discussed, before we move onto the electricity sector and analyse plans to break the link between the gas and electricity markets in order to avoid high gas prices setting a high marginal price for electricity. We look at the example of Spain and Portugal and also discuss how the EU may address the issue, before reviewing what longer term plans for the electricity market might look like and how they might be impacted by short-term responses to the current crisis.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast Series: Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 18
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[post_date] => 2022-09-08 12:25:05
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[post_content] => In June 2022 the revised TEN-E Regulation, updating a regulatory framework for the development of cross-border energy infrastructure in the EU has entered into force. David Ledesma discusses the Regulation with Katja Yafimava, (the author of the recent OIES paper ‘The TEN-E Regulation: allowing a role for decarbonized gas’) and Alex Barnes. This discussion is aimed at explaining how the revised Regulation contributes towards a regulatory framework for decarbonisation of the EU’s gas infrastructure by enabling construction of new hydrogen pipelines and repurposing existing natural gas pipelines to transport hydrogen, while also allowing projects associated with such repurposing to transport blends of (bio)methane with hydrogen until the end of 2029.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - TEN-E Regulation and decarbonisation of gas in Europe
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[post_date] => 2022-09-05 09:55:09
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks with Mike Fulwood, Jack Sharples and Anouk Honoré about the latest events impacting the European and global gas markets. The discussion opens with a review of recent pricing trends and the drivers of them, before moving on to consider Russian gas flows into Europe, and especially the events surrounding Nord Stream 1. We also discuss non-Russian gas imports to Europe, and look at the plans for new LNG import terminals, particularly in North West Europe. Our analysis of storage stocks looks at the overall EU position but also considers the levels of gas already stored in a number of individual countries, and this leads on to a discussion of the most vulnerable countries in Central and Eastern Europe in the event of a complete cessation of Russian gas imports. The conversation then moves on to emergency plans for the winter, looking at the overall plans outlined by the EU before moving on to a more detailed review of the plans being put in place in Germany, the EU’s largest gas market and the one most exposed to imports from Russia. Anouk talks through three key pillars of the German plan and also looks at how the German authorities are encouraging all consumers to constrain energy demand over the next six months.
[post_title] => Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 17 – European Gas Markets
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[post_date] => 2022-08-31 11:58:11
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[post_content] => In this podcast David Ledesma discusses with Ana Haurie, CEO of the impact-driven carbon finance company, Respira International, her contribution to the June 2022 issue of the OIES Oxford Energy Forum – How the voluntary carbon market is an essential tool for reaching net zero. In this fascinating podcast she explains how a high-quality supply of carbon credits, coupled with high-integrity corporate demand, can channel private capital to nature-based climate solutions such as forest conservation and mangrove restoration. However, implementing these solutions at scale will require $100 trillion of investment by 2050. Now is the time to act – listen here to find out how.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - How the voluntary carbon market is an essential tool for reaching net zero
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[post_date] => 2022-08-24 14:32:25
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[post_content] => In this podcast, David Ledesma talks to Hasan Muslemani about his latest publication in the Oxford Energy Forum (Issue 132) entitled ‘To buy or to rent: How the big real estate question became relevant in the carbon removals market’. Hasan discusses an important distinction between ‘removal’ and ‘avoidance’ credits in the market, and another amongst removal credits themselves being either nature-based or tech-based. The author specifically raises the issue of permanence and its role in defining quality in the carbon removals space, reflecting on an accounting methodology - tonne-year accounting - which has been suggested as a means of measuring the benefits of removal solutions which exhibit different permanence levels. Finally, he discusses how temporary or short-term storage solutions can help mitigate climate change in the long run, highlighting two methods which have been put forward in the literature: vertical and horizontal stacking.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - The role of permanence in defining quality of removal credits in the voluntary carbon market
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[147] => WP_Post Object
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[post_date] => 2022-08-19 11:07:19
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson interviews Mike Fulwood on the scenarios for a cut off of Russian gas flows to Europe this winter. They discuss a base Control Case scenario which envisage a continuation of flows and compare it with a No Russian Flows Case, looking at the impact ono the EU as a whole but also on the most affected countries in Central and Eastern Europe. They discuss the case study of Germany and the potential issues for gas in the power and industrial sectors as well as neighbouring countries in the region. Broadening the discussion they then review current LNG flows and the outlook for the winter not only in Europe but also in Asia, where cold weather or a rebounding Chinese economy could create additional competition for LNG. The conversation then moves on to the UK and the potential for issues with imports and exports of gas and electricity over the winter months before concluding with an analysis of supply and demand trends for 2023 plus a medium term outlook on the potential rebalancing of the global gas market later in the decade.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast Series: Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 16 – Gas Markets
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[post_date] => 2022-08-15 11:38:28
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[post_content] => The introduction of the WTI Midland crude oil into the ‘Brent’ benchmark has caused a fair amount of controversy, debate, and argument. In this podcast David Ledesma discussed this subject with Adi Imsirovic and Kurt Chapman addressing how the industry seems to be gradually reaching a consensus regarding the broad format of the new benchmark:
- Dated Brent assessment will remain as if it was a ‘Free on Board’ (FOB) basis, despite the inclusion of the WTI Midland crude loaded on the US Gulf Coast.
- The cargo size will change to from 600k to 700k barrels reflecting the usual size of oil loaded in the US and bound for Europe as well as the size of modern Aframax vessels.
- The ‘Dated’ Brent bids, offers, and trades for this grade delivered into Rotterdam2 will be adjusted to freight in Northwest Europe (NWE) so that the prices of WTI Midland and rest of the ‘Brent basket’ crudes are comparable.
- The US grade can also be nominated into the Brent forward contract. While the detailed mechanics of the workings of the cash market do not seem to have been fully agreed yet, it is likely to resemble Dated Brent in as much as the value of WTI Midland will have to reflect the realities of the North Sea cash market. In other words, any Midland crude delivered to a cash buyer in Rotterdam should have its price adjusted for freight, ‘as if it loaded in the North Sea’.
Several versions of bilateral contracts or general terms and conditions (GT&Cs) for the ‘new’ Brent benchmark have emerged. The purpose of this Energy Comment is to discuss these proposed terms and other outstanding issues that need to be settled before the contract starts trading next year. Also, we point to a possible need for the price assessment to account for the different timing in payment terms for WTI Midland, relative to the other BFOET grades, in the case where the US crude is paid on different terms.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - The Brent Benchmark – Where Do We Stand?
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[post_date] => 2022-08-11 12:09:45
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[post_content] => In this latest podcast, David Ledesma speaks to Michal Meidan and Yan Qin about China's carbon neutrality goals in the context of the current turmoil in energy markets and rising concerns about energy security. Much of the commentary and analysis following the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been focused on the consequences for, and reactions of, European nations. But the global nature of energy markets means that the effects of the conflict in Ukraine are felt around the world, and Asia is no exception. Rising energy prices, questions of affordability and shifting trade flows following Western sanctions on Russia, are impacting China and its neighbours. Even though China may be benefitting from discounted imports from Russia, energy security continues to rise on China's political agenda, and coal is seen as a key source of supply security. Yet China's ETS continues to develop, and renewables are also being discussed as part of the solution to China's energy woes.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - China Energy Policies and Carbon Neutrality Post Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
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[post_date] => 2022-08-09 11:32:44
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In this latest podcast from OIES James Henderson talks to Jack Sharples about his latest Energy Insight entitled “Falling like Dominoes: The impact of Nord Stream on Russian gas flows to Europe.” They discuss the fact that the decline in Nord Stream capacity in June and July should be seen in the context of a broader decline in Russian gas flows to Europe, which is due to a combination of Gazprom’s strategy of neither holding storage stocks in Europe nor selling additional spot volumes into the European market, physical pipeline capacity being taken offline, and flows under seven long-term contracts ceasing as a consequence of the war and its related sanctions. As a result of these factors the consequences of a long-term (partial or complete) cessation of flows via Nord Stream will now be felt beyond Germany as it would also affect countries in Central and Eastern Europe that were previously receiving most of their gas via Ukraine and other routes. As Jack highlights in the podcast, this is exactly the ‘domino effect’ that was seen when Nord Stream went offline for maintenance in mid-July. Indeed, he argues that Europe now faces a ‘race against time’ in what remains of summer 2022 to accumulate storage stocks and prepare to curb winter demand, in anticipation of significant potential supply constraints. In this situation, crucial questions remain: what is the near-term outlook for Russian pipeline gas supply to central and north-western Europe? Will those markets be able to both replenish storage in what remains of summer 2022, and subsequently ensure that supply meets demand in the coming winter? The analysis presented in the Insight and this podcast offers tentative conclusions, although the situation remains highly uncertain.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast Series: Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 15 - The importance of flows via Nord Stream
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[post_content] => In this latest in the OIES podcast series James Henderson speaks to Michal Meidan and Jack Sharples about their contributions to the latest OIES Gas Quarterly, published on 3 August 2022. They start by discussing the latest price trends in the gas market and the impact on the potential for development of new LNG projects as well as the possibility that high prices could have a significant impact on demand. They review the current state of supply to Europe in the light of further reductions in Nord Stream throughput while also considering the decline in European consumption which has been driven by limited supply and increased injections into storage, and which the EU wishes to constrain further over the winter months. They also consider the outlook for the coming winter, with alternative pipeline supplies already being at maximum capacity and the potential for further increases in LNG imports also being constrained. One of the key issues could be a rebound in the Chinese economy as it is gradually released from COVID lockdowns, and Michal Meidan considers the possible impact on gas demand and LNG imports, which could increase competition in the global gas market.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast: Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 14
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[post_date] => 2022-08-03 11:02:17
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[post_content] => In this podcast David Ledesma discusses African LNG Import potential with Mostefa Ouki, Senior Research Fellow at the OIES. Africa has been a source of natural gas supplies to the rest of the world for almost sixty years. But African LNG exporting sources are limited to a few sub-regions of Africa. Most African countries are far from being endowed with large proven natural gas reserves or could easily switch to the consumption of natural gas. During the last decade and until recently, over a dozen new LNG import projects were planned and proposed in Africa. However, in an era of new challenging international energy market conditions - persistent high gas hub price volatility and energy transition uncertainties - can these new market dynamics reignite, slowdown or stop altogether Africa’s previous enthusiasm about LNG imports?
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - African LNG imports and disrupted energy markets
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[post_date] => 2022-07-29 11:09:43
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[post_content] => Following a number of requests, this latest OIES podcast covers the topic of the Indian oil market and more specifically the purchase by Indian refiners of discounted Russian crude following the decision of many western companies and countries to avoid Russia’s oil exports. James Henderson interviews Mohua Mukherjee about her thoughts on the current situation and the key reasons for the Indian decision to purchase Russian crude. She provides and overview of the current state of the Indian oil market, and in particular the demand for oil imports, before describing the differing motivations of state-owned and private refiners. She outlines why private refiners in particular are motivated to buy cheap Russian crude oil and explains why the Indian authorities feel no regrets about taking advantage of a situation that has been caused by war in Ukraine and the European and US reaction to it. She describes the longstanding ties between India and Russia and also highlights the previous issues which India has had with previous oil sanctions on various countries and how this time the country is determined not to miss out on a commercial opportunity.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - The Indian oil market and purchases of cheap Russian crude
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[154] => WP_Post Object
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[post_date] => 2022-07-26 10:56:58
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson interviews Jack Sharples, Mike Fulwood and Katja Yafimava about their latest OIES Energy Comment “The curious incident of the Nord Stream gas turbine” in which they discuss the recent reductions in gas flows via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. The podcast reviews the history of Nord Stream 1 gas flows and their importance to Russian gas exports before exploring the details behind Gazprom’s decisions to reduce flows over the past month. The team discuss the issue of Canadian sanctions and their impact on the maintenance of one of the gas turbines for the pipeline, assess how this might affect future maintenance schedules and look at the impact is could have on flows of gas through Nord Stream ahead of the European winter season. They also review Gazprom’s decision to declare force majeure on a number of its contracts and on the rights of European buyers to challenge this, while also discussing the outlook for European gas storage levels if Nord Stream volumes are reduced again or indeed fall to zero in the coming months. Finally, the podcast assesses the reaction of global LNG markets to the current state of Russian gas exports and examines whether there is further potential for increased imports to Europe over the coming months.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast – Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 13 - Issues with gas flows via Nord Stream
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[post_date] => 2022-07-22 12:15:59
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[post_content] => In this latest edition of the OIES podcast series James Henderson discusses the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on oil markets with Bassam Fattouh, the Director of OIES. The podcast opens with a general discussion about the current state of the oil market, addressing both demand and supply issues and assessing the impact of high prices as well as the slowing of the global economy. Dr Fattouh then moves on to discuss more Russia-specific issues, looking at the impact of sanctions on Russian oil production and exports, the outlook for Russian supply over the rest of 2022 and the issues surrounding reduced Russian oil product, as well as crude oil, exports. He also talks about the changes in global oil flows that have occurred and how this has affected European refiners, while also addressing the question of whether a price cap on Russian oil would be a practical and worthwhile new policy to reduce Russian oil revenues. Finally, Dr Fattouh gives his thoughts on the outlook for the oil market and more specifically oil prices over the next 12 months.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast – Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 12
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[post_date] => 2022-07-14 11:32:33
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[post_content] => In this podcast, Malcolm Keay and David Robinson, Senior Research Fellows of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, discuss with David Ledesma two issues central to the energy transition: the need for fundamental structural reform of electricity markets and new approaches to energy networks. They explain how the penetration of intermittent renewables has changed the economic and technological underpinnings of the power sector; requiring a different market design and a new approach to networks. The current market design reflects 20th Century conditions: a power sector with a small number of large dispatchable plants, mainly fired by coal or natural gas, with significant variable costs and unidirectional electricity network flows. Increasingly, the reality is of an energy system that consists of millions of competing sources of decarbonised energy resources, including large scale as well as distributed resources, mostly intermittent renewables with zero short-run marginal costs and where multiple energy networks (e.g. electricity, hydrogen, district heating) need to act as a system. The podcast ends with David and Malcolm giving their views as to what signals to look out for in the ever changing European and UK electricity markets.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Key themes and messages from the OIES Electricity Energy Transition event
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[post_modified] => 2022-07-14 11:32:33
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[post_date] => 2022-07-13 12:44:20
[post_date_gmt] => 2022-07-13 11:44:20
[post_content] => The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2023, is now available.
- The recovery in Russian output and refining activity in May/June has led us to revise down the size of the expected disruptions in Russian oil production by year-end to 1.8 mb/d from 2.6 mb/d previously in our reference case. In June, Russian production is estimated to have risen m/m by 550,000 b/d to 10.7 mb/d, rebounding to 300,000 b/d below pre-war levels from 1 mb/d in April. In our reference case Russian output holds steady in July above 10.5 mb/d and starts slipping again from August-onwards as EU sanctions come into force. We expect disruptions to peak at 2.1 mb/d in February 2023 and average at 2 mb/d for the year. This constitutes the upper bound of the expected range of Russian crude shut-ins. On the lower bound, Russian disruption is expected to reach 1 mb/d by year-end and averages 1.2 mb/d in 2023.
- Global oil demand growth is unchanged to 2.2 mb/d in 2022 and is upgraded to 1.6 mb/d in 2023. OECD demand continued to outperform expectations in H1 2022 on strong pent-up demand but rising pressures to macro-outlook are set to squeeze further growth gains after Q3. Further COVID outbreaks and China’s stance towards its zero-COVID policy are dictating the demand outlook in H2 and 2023, but we still expect Chinese demand growth to pick-up in both years by 0.2 mb/d in 2022 and 0.4 mb/d in 2023. Overall, global oil demand growth is expected to ease y/y to 1 mb/d in H2 2022 from 3.4 mb/d in H1. Risks to the oil demand outlook are tilted to the downside, with negative pressures rising from Q4-onwards and well into H1 2023.
- Global oil supply growth is upgraded to 5.3 mb/d in 2022 and remains unchanged to 0.4 mb/d in 2023. Despite the limited Russian supply disruption so far, global oil supplies are little improved as underproduction from OPEC+ producers deepens, non-OPEC growth remains constrained and geopolitical disruptions elsewhere (i.e., Libya, Nigeria, FSU) are on the rise as the prospects of sanctions lifted from either Iran or Venezuela continue to fade away. Near-term supply pressures ease as SPR releases are providing some relief, but beyond the near-term, global supplies remain vulnerable on the elevated geopolitical risks, the end of SPR release in October, and OPEC+ output returning fewer barrels as most producers hit their maximum capacity.
- The products crack spreads have eased in part due to economic slowdown but remain elevated by historical standards and are likely to remain supported till end of this year for a couple of reasons. First, there are no signs that China will change its policy on exports of products. Second, the possibility that high natural gas prices could induce a shift into petroleum products. Lastly, the EU securing products from other parts of the world as it reduces its purchases of Russian products.
- Our Reference forecast for Brent is downgraded by $1.9/b to $111/b in 2022 and is upgraded by $3.6/b to $106.4/b in 2023. Negative supply/demand pressures dragged the outlook lower by $5.7/b in Q3 but barring a sharp deterioration in global demand we still expect prices to be sustained in the $110s heading to Q4. The balance of risks remains firmly tilted to the downside in H2 2022 and early-2023, but the imbalance is set to ease in H2 2023 as supply-side risks build to the upside anew.
- We project a 0.7 mb/d surplus in 2022 and a -0.5 mb/d deficit in 2023. The expected surplus in 2022 is upgraded by 340,000 b/d driven mainly by the revisions in Russian output, but in 2023 the market deficit remains largely unchanged. The outlook is surrounded by elevated uncertainty amid the realization of Russian disruptions, policy measures, as well as the global demand responses to oil prices and slower economic growth and China’s rebound after the lifting of COVID lockdowns. The replenishment of OECD stocks though is still seen slow-moving throughout, providing strong support to prices well into 2023.
To purchase your copy of Issue 16 please click
here.
Sponsors, Benefactors and Press please email
Andreas Economou for a copy.
[post_title] => OIES Oil Monthly - Issue 16
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[post_date] => 2022-07-12 12:30:09
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks with Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples about the current state of gas markets in the light of the Russia-Ukraine War. They discuss the recent research paper published by OIES entitled REPower EU and the Short-Term Outlook for the European Gas Market, which explores the impact of gas prices on demand in the EU as well as considering the key flows of gas into the continent. During the podcast Mike and Jack discuss current flows of pipeline gas and LNG into Europe, focussing in particular on the decline in Nord Stream 1 throughput due to compressor issues. They also consider current levels of injection into storage, the potential for an increase in Groningen production in the Netherlands and the decline in China LNG demand that has proved fortunate for Europe this year. They also highlight that achieving targeted levels of storage prior to winter 2022/23 is a necessary but not sufficient condition for Europe to come through the next 12 months unscathed and they raise concerns about the outlook for the gas supply-demand balance in 2023.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 11
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[post_date] => 2022-07-06 12:47:58
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[post_content] => In this extended podcast, David Ledesma discusses with James Henderson the key themes and messages from the inaugural Energy Transition days that were held in Oxford, and livestreamed, on 21-22 June 2022. The overall theme was the dichotomy between the environmental goals which must be met in the long-term if climate and temperature targets are to be met and the short-term energy security necessities that have been catalysed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These challenges are being faced primarily in Europe, but as one of the speakers at the conference put it the Russian/Ukraine war is a “European War with Global Consequences” and the podcast addresses this broader point in the context of social and energy justice during the current energy crisis and during the energy transition. The podcast also discusses key energy transition topics such as carbon allowance and offset markets, measurement and reporting of greenhouse gas emissions and the role of finance in achieving the long-term climate targets. It then moves on to summarise the conclusions from the hydrogen session, discussing the potential demand for hydrogen, key issues with transportation, challenges in developing new projects and potential business models. Finally it considers the prospects for COP27 and the challenges that lie ahead of environmental policy-makers and energy companies.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Key themes and messages from the inaugural OIES Energy Transition event
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[post_date] => 2022-06-29 11:12:29
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[post_content] => In this podcast, David Ledesma talks to Michal Meidan, Director of the Gas and China Research Programmes at the OIES, and Byford Tsang who is Senior Policy Advisor at E3G’s Climate Diplomacy team about China’s climate policies and the extent to which China’s 2021 energy crisis and the market turmoil following the Russian invasion of Ukraine have shaped them. The podcast discusses the contribution of climate policies to China’s power outages, the thinking in China about energy security and the role of coal in the country’s energy mix going forward. The discussion also touches on the 14th Five Year Plan, how coal, renewable and gas fit into China’s electricity consumption in the context of rising concerns about energy security and geopolitical tensions.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Will China’s Power Crunch Shift its Climate Policy?
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[post_date] => 2022-06-24 11:38:12
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[post_content] => Climate science confirms the imperative to maintain global temperatures under 2°C and undertake efforts to limit the rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in order to avert extreme climate hazards. This requires that global annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are halved by 2030 and reduced to net zero by 2050. Against this background, policymakers have launched initiatives at global and country levels to align socio-economic incentives towards the goals of the Paris Agreement. Among those, carbon markets represent an important element in achieving climate targets by attributing a price to carbon emissions, thus internalizing the climate externality into production and consumption decisions. They also play an important role in enhancing climate ambitions by increasing efficiency gains and lowering the marginal cost of abatement.
The importance of these markets has been highlighted recently in the G7 Climate, Energy and Environment Ministers’ Communiqué (27 May 2022), which emphasizes ‘the crucial potential of carbon markets and carbon pricing for incentivising investments in technologies, infrastructure and Nature-based Solutions that promote a transformation to net zero, accelerate cost-efficient emission reductions, and enhance the alignment of financial flows with the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement’, highlighting ‘that the revenues generated through carbon markets and carbon pricing can enable countries to finance further climate action, and to support vulnerable and low-income households in the transformation to net zero’. The G7 ministers of climate, energy, and the environment pledged ‘to expand the ambitious use of carbon markets and carbon pricing around the world’. Indeed, carbon markets have been expanding rapidly in recent years. According to the Economist3, by the end of 2021 more than 21 per cent of the world’s emissions were covered by some form of carbon pricing, with trading on these markets growing by 164 per cent in 2021 to $897 billion. This issue of the Oxford Energy Forum focuses on the role of and recent developments in carbon markets.
[post_title] => New Oxford Energy Forum - The Evolution of Carbon Markets and their Role in Climate Mitigation and Sustainable Development - Issue 132
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson discusses the latest developments in Russian gas flows to Europe with Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples following some dramatic rises in the European gas price catalysed by a reduction in volumes arriving through Nord Stream 1. The team review the key reasons for the reduction in activity on Nord Stream 1 (issues with compressors sanctioned in Canada) and assess why Gazprom has not used alternative routes to fulfil its contractual obligations. They consider the short and long-term implications of this developing situation and take a more cautious view on the levels of gas being injected into storage and the outlook for winter. They also discuss LNG flows in the global gas market and the implications for Europe, while also debating potential demand responses across the European gas economy.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast – Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 10
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Martin Lambert and Ali Abdelshafy about their recent paper entitled “The Role of CCUS in Decarbonising the Cement Industry: a German case study.” The authors discuss why CCUS is so important in the cement industry, and having outlined the general process of carbon capture and storage and its use in the cement industry they talk in detail about how CO2 is captured in the various parts of the cement manufacturing process. They also review how the CO2 is then transported to various storage points and discuss how the creation of industrial clusters for CCUS can enhance synergy benefits, using the North Rhine Westphalia region of Germany as an important case study. They also consider how common infrastructure can therefore become a critical element of the business model, while also discussing how social and legal issues need to be addressed to ensure the feasibility of any project. Finally, they outline the future plans for further research on this topic, including work on other hard to abate sectors.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - The Role of CCUS in Decarbonising the Cement Industry
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[post_date] => 2022-06-17 11:24:41
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast on the impact of the Russia Ukraine War on Energy Markets James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples about their views on the gas market and also discusses the European demand response in more detail with Anouk Honore. Jack provides an update on European storage injections and how they have been affected by recent developments in flows of Russian gas imports while Mike assesses the state of LNG supply and discusses the impact of demand in Asia, highlighting the fact that Chinese demand has been much lower than expected. Anouk Honore then considers how European gas demand has moved in the first few months of 2022 and looks out at prospects for the next 18 months, focussing on impacts in the power sector, the risks of a cold winter and the ongoing reduction of demand in the industrial sector. She also considers whether a further restriction on Russian gas imports would lead to a further price-drive decline in demand or whether governments would need to impose specific restrictions to curtail consumption.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast – Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 9
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[post_date] => 2022-06-16 10:59:24
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Robin Baker and Philippe Benoit about their upcoming paper “How Project Finance Can Advance the Clean Energy Transition in Developing Countries.” The authors discuss how the huge investment needed in developing countries to meet climate change targets is becoming a critical issue, and that although significant funds are available for energy investment it is difficult to direct them towards renewable projects in countries with high risk profiles. They suggest that the project financing model can help to allocate risks appropriately between the key players and can thus facilitate higher levels of debt finance than might otherwise have been attainable. They discuss how this can be achieved in practice, using specific examples, and also look at the role of multilateral agencies such as the World Bank. Finally, they also briefly touch on the role of green bonds as another alternative source of finance.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Green energy finance in the developing world
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[post_date] => 2022-06-14 12:46:13
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[post_content] => The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2023, is now available.
- EU’s recently agreed embargo on Russian oil has led us to revise upwards our reference case of the expected disruptions in Russian oil production by year-end to 2.6 mb/d from 1.6 mb/d previously. Our reference case this month however constitutes the upper bound of the expected range of Russian crude shut-ins that are now seen confined between 1.5 mb/d and 2.6 mb/d ending-2022. Considering the end-of-year timetable of the EU embargo and of the prohibition of EU operators from insuring and financing the transport of Russian oil to third-party countries, the impacts on Russian supplies may not be
fully realised before 2023.
- Global oil demand growth is revised lower by 0.1 mb/d to 2.2 mb/d in 2022 and by 0.11 mb/d to 1.4 mb/d in 2023. The downward revisions in both years reflect mainly the inflationary pressures weighing on the price sensitive non-OECD demand outlook, while China’s extending zero-COVID policy constraints a strong demand rebound in H2. Overall, risks to the demand outlook are tilted to the downside and the risk of demand responses to higher oil prices and slower economic growth increases in 2023.
- Global oil supply is projected to grow by 4.9 mb/d in 2022 and 0.4 mb/d in 2023. Global supplies find little comfort as most OPEC+ struggle to meet their quotas, the prospects of reaching an Iran nuclear deal in the very near-term have diminished, US shale growth remains constrained by surging cost pressures and capital discipline, and non-OPEC supply elsewhere remains price inelastic due to years of underinvestment and capacity losses during COVID. In the near-term, the crude market finds some relief from the continued SPR releases, but this will be temporary.
- The products market tightness that started even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to deepen as it now spreads across regions and products. EU products markets saw some relief by hiking imports from the US and Asia, but the products market in the US is also tightening due to the refinery closures in 2020/2021 and shortages of key feedstock from Russia due to sanctions. Asian markets are also becoming increasingly tight as regional demand picks up amid China’s strict export quotas and refiners in India operating at, or near, maximum capacity. For now, pent-up demand is offsetting some of the negative impacts of record-high prices on oil demand, but once the exogenous COVID recovery settles demand responses are bound to follow.
- Our
Reference forecast for Brent is upgraded by $7.4/b to $112.8/b in 2022 and by $3.7/b to $102.8/b in 2023. The recent price hike is seen persisting throughout 2022 and could be exaggerated by the tightness in products market, before beginning to ease towards year-end and 2023. Heightened oil price volatility advances in 2023 and risks to the outlook are now tilted to the downside on the lower realization of Russian disruptions followed by negative demand pressures that intensify from Q4-onwards. Brent could range between $94.8 mb/d and $130/b on a monthly basis in the remainder of 2022, while the range averages between $83.1/b and $113.8/b in 2023.
- We project a small 0.4 mb/d surplus in 2022 and a -0.6 mb/d deficit in 2023. The oil market is still seen at a small surplus in 2022, but market deficits are expected to re-emerge sooner from Q4-onwards deepening the overall deficit in 2023. OECD stocks remain under severe pressure throughout the remainder of the year before the deficit eases only slightly in 2023, suggesting that prices could continue to endure strong support by the slow stocks’ replenishment well in 2023.
To purchase your copy of Issue 15 please click
here.
Sponsors, Benefactors and Press please email
Andreas Economou for a copy.
[post_title] => OIES Oil Monthly - Issue 15
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[post_content] => In this podcast James Henderson talks to Mohua Mukherjee, Senior Research Fellow at the OIES talk about the electric mobility market in India, with a particular focus on the “budget” end. The podcast highlights the difference between large energy transition assets such as solar parks, wind farms and geothermal projects on the one hand, and rooftop PV systems, electric vehicles and energy efficiency retrofits on the other. The latter group, which includes budget electric mobility vehicles, consists of “retail” clean technologies whose adoption depends on out-of-pocket expenditures by individual consumers. The retail technologies can be incentivized by various government grants and attractive policies that reduce entry barriers and shorten payback periods, but they still require a consumer decision to incur an upfront payment that is higher than an available alternative option, such as Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles, in the expectation of future financial savings e.g avoided petrol or diesel purchases.
For around 900 million people, whose average monthly income is under US$300, their primary mode of transport is an ICE two-wheeler or a shared ride in a three-wheeler (a tuk-tuk) or a public bus. The government of India is focusing on electrification of shared rides in these mass-market vehicles first and maximizing the number of clean kilometres travelled. The podcast discusses the diverse consumer segments in India’s two and three-wheeler electric mobility market, as well as the challenges arising from a weak electricity distribution infrastructure in many parts of the country, and the innovative business models that are arising to overcome the challenges.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - India’s Mass-Market Clean Mobility Initiatives and its Unique, Customized Business Models for Light Electric Vehicles
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[post_content] => In this webinar co-authors Rahmat Poudineh, Christine Brandstätt and Farhad Billimoria discuss the key insights from their recent book, “
Electricity distribution networks in the decentralisation era: re-thinking economics and regulation”. They are joined by two eminent discussants: Professor Pierluigi Mancarella, University of Melbourne, and Professor Michael Pollitt, Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
The book investigates some of the key issues affecting electricity distribution grids in the era of decentralisation. These include emergent models of operation and co-ordination of DERs, design of regulated charges for network access, introducing differentiated and tradable network access rights, designing local markets for flexibility services, examining the ways which decentralisation fits within the broader context of energy systems integration, rethinking the unbundling model of distribution grids, and finally revisiting economic regulation of distribution networks. The book provides a short but broad and widely accessible analysis of these issues and will be of interest to students, academics, policymakers, industry experts, and interested readers.
[post_title] => Electricity distribution networks in the decentralisation era: re-thinking economics and regulation
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson and Mike Fulwood discuss the latest consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on energy markets. They consider the impact of the latest cut-offs of supply to Finland, Denmark and the Netherlands and discuss recent price movements in Europe and the UK, as well as the growing differential between delivered LNG prices in Europe and the TTF price. They also review flows of pipeline gas and LNG into Europe, in particular looking at a recent reduction in flows through Ukraine and the potential for increased flows from Algeria. They then discuss the impact of European issues on global markets, reviewing recent price movements in Asia and especially in the US, where the Henry Hub price has increased sharply over the past week. Finally, they consider the potential for gas availability issues this winter, looking a recent concerns in the UK over possible rationing and also reviewing storage injections in Europe and the likelihood of EU storage targets being met.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast – Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 8
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[post_date] => 2022-05-27 09:48:02
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[post_content] => Energy networks are infrastructures that transfer energy from the production source to the consumers’ premises. They constitute various forms of technologies ranging from established networks, such as electricity and natural gas, to emerging grids, such as hydrogen, heating, and cooling. The net-zero carbon target will result in a significant change in energy systems with important implications for energy networks. At the same time, energy networks are now increasingly becoming interdependent because of network coupling technologies such as power-to-X solutions. An integrated approach to the planning and operation of these networks thus is required to lower the use of primary energy, provide flexibility to integrate variable renewable energy resources and lower the cost of achieving a net-zero target. In this podcast David Ledesma, Distinguished Research Fellow, talks with Rahmat Poudineh, Director of Research for Electricity Programme, about the implications of energy transition for energy networks, and the ways in which these infrastructures should adapt to the challenges of decarbonization.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Energy Networks in the Energy Transition Era
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[post_date] => 2022-05-24 13:09:38
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast – the seventh in our series on the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the European gas market – we continue our analysis of ongoing developments in European gas supply, namely pipeline and LNG imports. With LNG imports at record levels in recent months, and non-Russian pipeline imports remaining strong, it is clear that pipeline imports from Russia are the ‘wildcard’ in European supply. We discuss some of the political issues that could affect such Russian supply in the near future, and the supply-side outlook for the rest of 2022. Finally, we turn to the European response to the present situation, in particular the most recent proposals from the EU, including the implications of a proposed cap on wholesale gas prices.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast – Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 7
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[post_date] => 2022-05-19 11:08:39
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[post_content] => In this podcast David Ledesma talks to Gulmira Rzayeva, Senior Visiting Research Fellow about Turkey’s unprecedented demand surge in 2021. Despite well developed natural gas import capacity and diverse supply sources, security of supply became a major issue for the country during the summer of 2021 and the winter of 2021/2022.
At the same time, imports from Russia increased by 62 per cent year-on-year drawing away some supplies from Europe. However, starting from September 2021, imports from Russia fell, dropping by 9 per cent year on year in October, 33.7 per cent year on year in November and 31 per cent year on year in December. During this period Turkey significantly increased spot LNG imports despite high LNG prices vis-à-vis imported pipeline gas prices owing to the exhaustion of the Annual Contract Quantity. Demand pressure throughout the year, shortage of gas, historic surging prices soar in the European gas hubs, expiration of legacy gas LTCs caused an increase in average imported gas prices of 45 per cent in 1Q 2022 relative to 1Q 2021, from $175/tcm to $307/tcm. In 2022 the share of hub indexation of Turkey’s total contracted gas price is around 43 per cent compared to 19.6 per cent in 2021.
The podcast ends with Gulmira giving a view on the future of Turkey importing gas from Russia following the invasion of Ukraine by Russia.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Turkey’s gas supply-demand balance and renewal of its long-term contracts
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[post_date] => 2022-05-18 12:42:33
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[post_content] => The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2023, is now available.
- The disruption in Russian supplies intensified in April with an estimated loss of 1 mb/d of production m/m. We now expect Russian oil production shut ins to average between 1.6 mb/d and 3 mb/d in H2. Our
Reference case sees the disruptions in Russian oil production mainly due to self-sanctioning reaching 1.6 mb/d ending-Q2 2022. Our worst-case under the
EU oil ban scenario assumes that the EU-27 reach a deal in Q2 to ban all Russian oil imports by year-end. This could affect over 60% of total Russian oil exports to the region with exports falling to 1.4 mb/d versus 3.5 mb/d observed in April and results in the loss of 4 mb/d of Russian oil production by December 2022.
- Global oil demand growth is revised lower by 0.3 mb/d to 2.3 mb/d in 2022 and remains relatively unchanged to 1.5 mb/d in 2023. Risks to the demand outlook are tilted to the downside. For 2022, geopolitical and growth risks could depress demand growth by another 0.3 mb/d. OECD demand could be hit the hardest accounting for 65% of total declines, with middle distillates and gasoline demand appearing the most severely affected, particularly in Europe and the US.
- Global supply growth is downgraded by 0.73 mb/d to 4.3 mb/d in 2022 and 0.39 mb/d to 1.6 mb/d in 2023. Oil supply tailwinds strengthen on the risk of bigger Russian supply disruptions, limited output response outside Russia due to growth constraints and the dimmed prospects of Iran’s return to the market. A severe disruption in Russian supplies accelerated by a potential
EU oil ban that could shut in nearly 4 mb/d of Russian output by year-end, would see a supply gap of 1 mb/d remaining uncovered in 2023 adding further pressure to an already tight market.
- Product markets continue to tighten, with the refining margins at record levels reflecting bottlenecks in the refining sector. EU refineries are ramping up production, but they are facing significant constraints in terms of crude and feedstock availability and high refining costs, while filling the supply gap proves extremely difficult. Product stocks continue to fall to critically low levels exacerbated by Russian refineries cutting runs. Securing supplies from Asia is becoming increasingly challenging, as Asian distillate markets are also tightening on rising demand as economies reopen and stricter limits on China product exports. Pressure has spread to jet fuel as flights restart.
- Our
Reference forecast for Brent is downgraded by $5.1/b to $105.4/b in 2022 but lifted by $4.5/b to $99.2/b in 2023. While current crude prices are caught between opposing supply/demand forces, the balance of risks remains skewed on the upside in 2022 at $10.4/b before easing to $2.8/b in 2023. Depending on the size of disruption in Russian supplies and subsequent supply/demand responses, Brent ranges between $101.8/b and $119.3/b in 2022 and $85/b and $116.1/b in 2023, reflective of the severe oil uncertainty that dictates most of our outlook. Oil markets are now more than ever subject to policy decisions and their effectiveness, keeping price volatile and exacerbated by reduced liquidity.
- We project a small 0.4 mb/d surplus in 2022 and a -0.3 mb/d deficit in 2023. With the market failing to build a material surplus in 2022, severe pressure is maintained to the exceptionally thin oil stocks. Despite the increased downward demand pressures, the supply/demand risks to the outlook continue to favor a more tightening supply picture in both 2022 and 2023.
To purchase your copy of Issue 14 please click
here.
Sponsors, Benefactors and Press please email
Andreas Economou for a copy.
[post_title] => OIES Oil Monthly - Issue 14
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[post_date] => 2022-05-11 13:08:16
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES Podcast, David Ledesma is joined by Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples to discuss the latest trends on the European gas market. We begin with the latest pricing developments, with day-ahead prices in NW Europe declining slightly, while remaining above 90 EUR/MWh.
On the supply side, it was noted that in the past week Russian pipeline supply to Europe has risen, despite the cut-off in supply to Poland and Bulgaria that took place on 27 April. Elsewhere, pipeline imports from North Africa and Azerbaijan remain flat, while flows from Norway remain above those from Russia, having reversed the relative decline seen in April.
In the world of LNG, supply remains robust after Europe experienced a record month for LNG imports in April. A particularly notable development over the past week is that daily imports (cargo offloads) remained robust, while daily sendout fell. The result is an increase in European LNG storage stocks towards full operational capacity. European underground gas storage stocks are now just over 5 bcm higher year-on-year, and Europe remains on track to hit its target of 80% full by 1 November, but with the caveat that this will only be possible if LNG imports remain sustained, and the Russian proposal for payment in Russian Roubles does not result in a dispute that leads to further cut-offs in Russian supply.
The previous OIES podcast with Mike and Jack was recorded on Day 1 of the Flame European Gas Conference in Amsterdam. Reflecting on the key takeaways from that conference, Mike notes the European buyers are now being encouraged to sign long-term LNG supply contracts, in sharp contrast to the urge just a few months ago not to sign such contracts in the context of the energy transition – while Jack highlights the emergence of notable pricing differentials between national markets in Europe in the context of infrastructure bottlenecks.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 6
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[post_date] => 2022-05-04 16:09:43
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast, we continue our weekly updates of the impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine on energy markets. This week James Henderson, Jack Sharples and Mike Fulwood discuss the recent cancelation of the Russian gas export contracts with Poland and Bulgaria and the implications for the European gas market. They consider the fact that alternative supplies into North-West Europe are already at very high levels, which is causing price distortions due to infrastructure constraints and also consider the different implications for Southern Europe, where flows from Azerbaijan and North Africa, as well as LNG imports, are balancing the end of Russian flows to Bulgaria. The podcast also looks at the continuing debate around rouble payments for gas to Russia and assesses the current state of readiness of the European gas market in the event of a reduction or cessation of Russian gas flows in May.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 5
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[post_date] => 2022-05-03 11:00:39
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[post_content] => India has taken on the unique challenge of trying to decarbonize while also growing its economy at 8-9% per annum. This is the required growth rate in order to meet the aspirations of its people related to decent employment, reliable economic growth, and improved standards of living. If you've heard the expression "trying to change your tire while driving at 90 mph on the motorway", this is a good analogy for what India is doing!
In this podcast David Ledesma talks to Mohua Mukherjee, Senior Research Fellow at the OIES discusses India's progress on its Climate Action Plan. There is no successful precedent or role model for a country that is trying to meet all 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) on the one hand, and trying to meet very ambitious climate goals on the other. India will have to invent its own way of getting there and it is doing precisely that, since it signed on to both the SDGs and the Paris Agreement in late 2015. The IEA notes: ‘More than that of any other major economy, India’s energy future depends on buildings and factories yet to be built, and vehicles and appliances yet to be bought. . .This represents a huge opening for policies to steer India on to a more secure and sustainable course."
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - India's Progress on its Climate Action Plan
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[post_date] => 2022-04-28 14:47:52
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[post_content] => In this OIES podcast David Ledesma talks to Michal Meidan about China’s recently published energy five-year plans and how they align with the country’s near-term priorities. David and Michal discuss the macroeconomic outlook in China and the implications of the zero-tolerance approach to COVID for oil and gas demand, as well as how the Russian invasion of Ukraine is impacting both macroeconomic priorities and energy flows. The podcast also considers how the recently published energy five year plans will shape China’s energy use and policies as the country seeks to reach net zero, but also the ongoing reliance on fossil fuels, and how technological innovation is considered in these plans.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - China’s energy plans and macroeconomic realities?
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[post_date] => 2022-04-26 11:17:56
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast we continue our weekly updates of the impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine on energy markets. This week James Henderson, Jack Sharples and Mike Fulwood review continuing flows of Russian gas to Europe, despite the threat of an embargo. We note the increase in volumes since the invasion in February but ask why buyers are continuing to nominate for gas below the contracted levels. We also assess the different routes for Russian exports and note the declining role of Ukraine. A discussion of LNG flows and prices then leads to a review of storage levels in Europe and some thoughts on the summer-winter spread of prices and what it means for injections of gas into storage this year. Finally, we turn to Agnieszka Ason who provides an update on the latest advice from the European Commission on Russia’s demand for rouble payment for its gas. She also reviews the decision of the Baltic States to halt all imports of Russian gas and discusses whether this has broader relevance to the EU as a whole.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast – Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 4
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[post_date] => 2022-04-20 11:28:45
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[post_content] => In this third of our series on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on energy markets James Henderson talks to Bassam Fattouh about the impact of a potential Russian oil embargo on oil supply, demand and prices. Dr Fattouh outlines the conclusions from the latest OIES Oil Monthly, which analyses a number of scenarios for Russian oil exports and also examines alternative sources of supply as well as the potential demand response from higher oil prices. He also discusses a range of oil price scenarios, as well as considering the impact on refiners of lower levels of Urals Blend exports and also the effect of lower oil product exports. Following this discussion of the oil market Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples provide an update on the gas market, reviewing Russian export flows to Europe, LNG imports, gas storage levels and movements in prices.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast – Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series - 3 - Oil Market Focus
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[post_date] => 2022-04-19 14:19:21
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[post_content] => In this podcast, David Ledesma talks to Martin Lambert, Head of OIES Hydrogen Research, about the key messages from the recent European Hydrogen Conference and how they fit with the ongoing research in OIES. In particular, they cover the heightened energy security concerns following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and hydrogen ambitions in the REPowerEU document published by the European Commission in early March 2002. They then go on to talk about the growing realism about where hydrogen is more likely to play a role, and some of the key challenges to be overcome. Addressing the challenges of creating business cases for use of hydrogen in specific sectors and for transporting it to customers, the conversation also addresses the importance of hydrogen storage and the recognition that this area needs more focus, both technically and commercially. Finally, they talk about the geopolitics of hydrogen, and how energy security concerns may influence future development pathways.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Hydrogen: Current challenges in creating viable business cases
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[post_date] => 2022-04-14 14:33:59
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[post_content] => Green Bonds have experienced a massive growth in the recent years and have received growing attention following the Paris Agreement. In this podcast David Ledesma talks to Andrea Maino, Research Fellow at the OIES, about his recent paper “Financing the Energy Transition: The Role, Opportunities and Challenges of Green Bonds” that was published by the Institute on the middle of February 2022. In the podcast Andrea discusses the role of green bonds in channeling capital towards the energy transition and the role and opportunities of green bonds for issuers in attracting a more stable investor base and potentially raising cheaper financing. Andrea also notes that, fueled by the uptake of the market, several policy and regulatory initiatives have emerged, with the EU representing one of the most active jurisdictions. Finally, other transition finance instruments are discussed such as Sustainability Linked Bonds and Sustainability/Social Bonds for their contribution for hard-to-abate sectors and for a “Just” transition.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Financing the Energy Transition: The Role, Opportunities and Challenges of Green Bonds
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[post_date] => 2022-04-13 15:21:18
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[post_content] =>
Brent is the world’s most important crude oil benchmark. However, the falling production of Brent has forced the price reporting agencies to introduce new grades in the ‘basket’ of crudes eligible for delivery as ‘Brent’ and widen the loading dates that can be used in their assessments. Brent has become just a brand name in a price assessment process that must be one of the most complex in the global commodity space. In February 2021, S&P Global Platts announced the decision to introduce West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Midland in the Brent benchmark, and the latest version of S&P Global Platts proposal has been presented to the industry for consultation until early April 2022. The proposal will make the already complicated benchmark and price discovery process even more so. The purpose of this podcast is to outline the reasons for the proposed change and discuss the possible consequences for the market and the industry if the latest proposal is adopted.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - The Future of the Brent Oil Benchmark: A Radical Makeover
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[post_date] => 2022-04-12 13:47:01
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast we continue our weekly updates of the impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine on energy markets. This week we review the significant increase in global LNG supply and its availability to the European market, while also considering the other sources of non-Russian supply. We also review the flows of Russian gas into the European market. Then we look at recent price volatility and consider the very different impacts of a full embargo on Russian imports versus an alternative strategy of using full nomination of contracted Russian gas as a means to loosen the market and reduce prices, and thereby revenues for Russia. Finally, we also consider the gas relationship between Russia and China and discuss whether much has changed in the short-term and whether the long-term prospects are for a more significant partnership.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast - Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series - 2
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[post_date] => 2022-04-12 11:25:18
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[post_content] => This month’s
Special Issue continues to assess the implications of the Ukraine war on our short-term oil market outlook for supply/demand and price dynamics to 2023, featuring the first detailed assessment of the impacts on OECD products demand.
The analysis considers two principal scenarios. A
Reference case in which self-sanctioning measures and obstacles in redirecting Russian crude and petroleum products result in a loss of 1.1 mb/d of Russian crude output by May 2022; and a
Full curtailment case in which governments’ sanctions extend to Russian oil exports and results in the loss of 3.9 mb/d of Russian oil production by May 2022. Both scenarios persist throughout our forecast horizon and are presented against a
no-disruption baseline that corresponds to the latest forecast prior the Ukraine war.
- On the demand side, our Reference global oil demand forecast this month sees y/y growth at 2.6 mb/d in 2022, while the forecast remains relatively unchanged at 1.5 mb/d in 2023. Under the Full curtailment case, demand growth falls y/y to 2.2 mb/d in 2022 and 0.5 mb/d in 2023.
- On the supply side, the prospect of large supply disruptions in Russian oil and production bottlenecks elsewhere to fill the supply gap aggravate the supply pressures to the outlook. In our worst case, global supply is 2 mb/d less by 2023 compared to the baseline.
- The risk of large disruptions in Russian oil rises in Q2, as a prolonged war raises the risk of bigger-than- anticipated disruptions, even in the absence of direct oil and gas sanctions, on self-sanctioning and operational constraints deepening. Uncertainty over the actual Russian oil lost however remains high, but the first tentative signs of disruption are starting to emerge such as a notable increase in Russian crude- on-water and floating storage, cuts in Russian refining runs and lack of storage.
- Capacity constraints for most OPEC+ producers are expected to halve the OPEC+ response relative to their pledged target with replacement barrels in our Reference averaging 1.3 mb/d between April and September 2022, relative to the headline 2.5 mb/d.
- Overall, replacing big losses of Russian supplies under the Full curtailment case remains extremely challenging. That said, replacement crude could fill the gap by year end, but severe near-term pressures persist between April and October 2022.
- The decision to release 240 mbbls from SPR between May and October 2022 would ease some of the near- term pressure on balances, but the impact on prices appears to be short lived and largely dependent on the size of the supply shock.
- Our Reference Brent forecast is $110.5/b for 2022 and $94.6/b for 2023, but risks to the price outlook continue to be tilted to the upside.
- In terms of balances,our best-case scenario now sees supply/demand conditions only balanced in 2022 by 0.15 mb/d, with a small surplus of 0.63 mb/d building in 2023. Combined with the SPR releases the market surplus under Reference builds to 65 mb/d in 2022. In the more severe Full curtailment case, the market fails to build a surplus in 2022 under all response scenarios.
To purchase your copy of issue 13 please click
here.
Sponsors, Benefactors and Press please email
Andreas Economou for a copy.
[post_title] => OIES Oil Monthly - Issue 13
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[post_content] => In this first of a new series of podcasts, OIES presents a regular review of the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on energy markets. James Henderson interviews Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples on the drivers of current price dynamics, the situation with Russian gas flows to Europe, the availability of LNG supply to Europe and the impact of demand in Asia, and the current status of gas storage in Europe. In the second half of the podcast the discussion turns to Russia’s current demand for rouble payment for its gas exports, and Agniezska Ason describes the mechanism which has been mandated by the Kremlin for future use by European buyers and its implications. She discusses the significant potential legal impact of the change which the Kremlin is insisting upon and the potential for it to catalyse a significant pushback from buyers, which could in turn lead to the Russian Customs authorities insisting that Gazprom halts supplies.
[post_title] => OIES Podcast: Russia-Ukraine War – Impact on Energy Markets Series - 1
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[post_date] => 2022-03-28 14:29:12
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[post_content] => In this OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Anouk Honoré and Jack Sharples about the EU plan to diversify gas imports away from Russia in 2022. They discuss the latest strategy published by the European Commission on March 8, which addresses both the supply and demand-side options. The podcast considers the potential to import an extra 50bcm of LNG and 10bcm of pipeline gas from alternative sources, as well as for the EU to generate an extra 3.5bcm of biomethane, and also discusses the outlook for indigenous production as a source of supply. On the demand side the potential for a shift away from gas in the power sector is analysed, with coal and nuclear considered as options in addition to the EU’s preferred acceleration of wind and solar, while in the residential sector efficiency measures and the installation of roof-top solar and heat pumps are the main targets. The discussants also consider the implications of the EU’s new demand that gas storage be 90% full by November 2022.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - EU plans to reduce Russian gas imports
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[post_date] => 2022-03-23 11:28:35
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[post_content] => In 2021, China experienced several episodes of power shortages and outages, heightening already existing concerns about energy security. In response, the government instituted a rapid succession of market reforms and other regulatory changes, which have pushed the majority of power users into the power market and also allowed for a wider range of electricity prices. These reforms are likely to carry forward as China plans to have a national power market system fully in place by 2030. But in the short-term, the very heavy focus on energy security has also led to another rush by provinces and state-owned power companies to build new coal plants to meet peak, much of which is arguably uneconomic given that investments in clean energy, storage, efficiency, and flexibility could likely deliver the same benefits at lower cost. In this podcast, David Ledesma discusses these topics and other aspects of ongoing power market changes in China with Yan Qin and Anders Hove.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - China’s power market reforms in an age of insecurity
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[post_date] => 2022-03-17 12:17:49
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[post_content] => In late 2021, China experienced a severe electricity supply crisis that affected 20 provinces. Industrial activity was curtailed, and even households suffered prolonged outages in some areas. The country is no stranger to periodic energy supply shortages and in many outages in the past, the principal causes involved either poor policy coordination or a clash between market forces and government plans and administrative measures. This time it was no different. This issue of the Oxford Energy Forum analyses the 2021 energy crisis in China, its causes and its implications for domestic energy markets and the country’s low-carbon energy transition.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Forum - The 2021 energy crisis: Implications for China's energy market and policies - Issue 131
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[post_date] => 2022-03-15 12:00:04
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples about their latest research on the possible impact of an interruption of Russian gas supplies to Europe. After a quick update on current gas prices Jack Sharples reviews the current state of gas supply to Europe, looking at flows in 2021 and then taking a more detailed look at daily supply over the past 4-5 months. He then assesses the different routes for Russian exports, considers why they declined in January and early February and then looks at LNG flows and indigenous European production. Mike Fulwood then presents a number of scenarios which consider the possibility of a curtailment or cessation of Russian gas exports to Europe. He discusses the implications for the European gas balance, possible mitigation measures and the likely impact on gas prices. He also reviews the plans put forward by the IEA and the EU to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian gas.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - The Russian invasion of Ukraine – implications for the European gas market
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[post_date] => 2022-03-14 11:48:43
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[post_content] => This month’s OIES Oil Monthly
Special Issue assesses the implications of the Ukraine war on our short-term oil market outlook for market balances and prices to 2023.
The analysis considers two scenarios. A
Reference case in which self-sanctioning measures and obstacles in redirecting Russian crude flows due to financing and shipping constraints results in a loss of 1 mb/d of Russian supplies in March 2022, that persists throughout our forecast horizon but it is not exceeded; and a
Full curtailment case either due to an extension of direct sanctions on Russia or a retaliatory tit-for-tat oil embargo from Russia that results in the loss of 4 mb/d of Russian supplies by May 2022 and corresponds to an 85 per cent decline in Russia’s oil exports relative to February. Both scenarios are presented against a
no-disruption baseline to assess the impact of the negative effects of Russia’s disruptions on supply/demand and price dynamics.
- Depending on the size of the supply disruption and its duration, we estimate that global oil demand could lose between 1 mb/d and 2 mb/d of growth in 2022 and 2023. OECD Europe appears the hardest hit region throughout, contributing to total OECD demand losing 0.5 mb/d of growth in our reference case and the losses extending to 1.2 mb/d in the worst case, as y/y growth falls to negative territory in 2023. The negative impacts in non-OECD demand become more acute towards the end of the year and extend to 2023 with some 0.9 mb/d of growth at risk. Nearly half of the total loses in global oil demand will be impacting fuels for industrial use, followed by the demand for transport fuels and in particular road fuels and jet.
- Global oil supply could fail to return to pre-COVID levels before 2024, as the expected response to a severe shock will be limited in the short-term. Analysis shows that production losses from Russia of up to 1 mb/d will be manageable in the short-term, but a more severe supply shock will need a collective response from the supply side, albeit this will be extremely difficult to achieve.
So far, OPEC+ has stuck to the current agreement of gradually releasing barrels to the market. As most OPEC+ producers near their maximum capacity limits, we expect total OPEC+ excluding Russia to be able to return another 1.6 mb/d between March and September 2022, 0.6 mb/d below target but still able to replace 39 per cent out of the total 4 mb/d of Russian crude supplies at risk. Despite new obstacles emerging with regards to the Iranian nuclear deal, if an agreement is reached, the ramping of Iranian production will improve balances and moderate prices but only marginally, notwithstanding the impact on sentiment. Outside OPEC+, our full curtailment scenario sees non-OPEC production responding to elevated prices by an additional 0.6 mb/d of growth by 2023.
- The Russian oil disruption is also having wide repercussions on products markets. For European refineries which rely heavily on Russian Urals for their diet, the search for alternatives grades has already started, but given the tightness of the market, this is a challenging task and refineries are being forced to rely on local or regional crudes and could cut runs, disrupting the supply of products such as diesel and gasoline. Distillates markets are already under severe pressure with the any relief for European distillates from Russia unlikely, as self-sanctioning extends to products and as Russian refineries themselves could cut runs as they fail to find buyers. The very high prices in Europe are opening the arbitrage from Asia, although distillates markets in Asia are also tight. The impact on products also extends beyond distillates and the US ban on Russian supplies will also impact US refineries which rely on Russian crude and unfinished products as key ingredients to US refineries’ diet.
- Oil prices and volatility will remain on edge in 2022 with the Brent price outlook ranging between $102/b and $130/b on an annual basis. The price impact of supply disruptions will be sizeable in the near-term, as supply/demand responses are limited resulting in elevated geopolitical risk pressures persisting to Q1 2023 before easing in 2023. Market responses are expected to significantly ease the price pressure in 2023, with Brent falling below $100/b by year end.
- The most plausible scenario for 2022 is for the market to remain in deficit, as previously expected surpluses are now nearly eliminated. Our best-case scenario now sees supply/demand conditions only balanced in 2022, with the risk of deficits building in an already tight stocks environment across all quarters. The supply/demand gap in 2022 ranges between -1.9 mb/d and 0.5 mb/d, with the prospect of a more balanced market reappearing again towards the end of 2022 and in 2023.
Please contact
Andreas Economou for more information on the OIES Oil Monthly.
[post_title] => OIES Oil Monthly - Special Issue 12
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[post_date] => 2022-03-08 11:23:40
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[post_content] => In this podcast David Ledesma discusses the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for global oil markets with Bassam Fattouh, Director of OIES based on his latest paper: Russia-Ukraine crisis: Implications for global oil markets with Andreas Economou and Ahmed Mehdi. In this wide-ranging discussion, Bassam Fattouh discusses what the potential loss of Russian oil supplies means for the oil market and oil prices and how the sanctions so far have impacted Russian oil supplies. Other issues discussed include whether there is a scope to divert Russian crude from Europe to Asia, the supply and demand responses that could help moderate prices, and the different scenarios that could emerge in the next few months.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Russia-Ukraine crisis - Implications for global oil markets
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[post_date] => 2022-03-01 13:37:13
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[post_content] => In September-October 2021, China experienced a severe electricity supply crisis that impacted over twenty provinces, leading to industrial curtailment and residential supply cuts in some areas. In this podcast David Ledesma discusses the causes and implications of this supply crisis with Michal Meidan Director of the Gas Research Programme & the China Energy Research Programme at OIES and Philip Andrew-Speed, Research Fellow at the OIES. In this wide-ranging discussion, Philip and Michal discuss the key messages from the forthcoming Oxford Energy Forum in China’s 2021 energy crisis, addressing also how the Chinese government’s ‘dual control’ policy on energy consumption and energy intensity contributed to the crisis. The podcast ends with a forward-looking discussion on the implications for China’s energy policies and markets, as well as the outlook for the 2030-2060 targets (to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and reach carbon neutrality by 2060).
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - The 2021 energy crisis: Implications for China’s energy market and policies
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[post_date] => 2022-02-24 11:56:41
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[post_content] =>
In this podcast, James Henderson talks to Anouk Honoré about her forthcoming article “Demand-side factors behind the historical gas price rally in Europe in 2021”. This article is part of a trilogy entitled “A Series of Unfortunate Events” that analyses the main supply and demand factors in the European gas market(s) that contributed to rising gas prices since summer 2021 and culminating in record levels in Q4 2021.
Looking at a European region with 34 countries, gas demand rose by an estimated 6% in 2021, especially driven by the growth in the Turkish market.
Colder temperatures in the first four months boosted gas use for heating in buildings and heating-related electricity consumption; strong recovery in economic activity, especially in the first 3 quarters, led to a rebound in industrial gas demand; and finally the use of gas in the electricity generation remained relatively high despite some gas to coal switching in the second half of the year.
An important take-away highlighted in 2021 was the relative inelasticity of gas demand to react to short-term price changes.
Gas/coal switching in the power sector has been the main source of this flexibility and with the rapid coal phase out expected in many countries in the coming years, gas demand in Europe will become (even) less price responsive. This begs the question about the role of the region as the main balancing market for the global LNG market in the near future.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - A Series of Unfortunate Events: Demand-Side Factors in the European Gas Price Rally in 2021
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[post_content] => The IEA predicts that the need for flexibility in the Indian power system will rise faster than anywhere else in the world, not least because of the ambitious renewable energy targets which require 500 GW of non-hydro capacity by 2030. Integrating this level of non-dispatchable generation requires an effective transformation of the power sector to enable flexible operation of existing power plants as well as incentivization of new sources of flexibility. Distributed energy resources (DERs), which are located close to demand and sourced locally, are a game changer in this respect. From the consumer perspective, they provide control and choice to the users about their electricity usage and costs. From the system perspective, distributed resources not only can lower the peak demand which has recently been increasing in India but also to provide flexibility which is much needed with the decline in the share of thermal generation. In this podcast we discuss the state of DERs in India and key challenges to their uptake in the power system of this country.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - India’s renewable energy targets and the role of distributed energy resources (DERs)
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[post_date] => 2022-02-09 12:08:44
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[post_content] => The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2023, is now available.
Our reference forecast for Brent is upgraded to $85.2/b in 2022 and $82.1/b in 2023. The major uplifts this month mainly reflect the muted impact of Omicron on demand that outperformed our previous growth expectations in Q4 2021, resulting in tight stocks position heading to 2022 and aggravating near-term geopolitical pressures largely due to the escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions. As such, the balance of risks has shifted to the upside with near-term geopolitical pressures pushing prices to the $85/b and $100/b range, before prices start retreating in H2 2022 to the low-$80s. Beyond the near-term, elevated supply risks related to the OPEC+ tapering process and concerns over the size of available spare capacity provide support to prices and shadow downside demand risks on growth, inflation and supply bottleneck concerns.
Global oil demand growth is upgraded to 5.5 mb/d in 2021 and is little changed to 3.4 mb/d in 2022 and 2.1 mb/d in 2023. The limited impact of Omicron on mobility and economic activity, aggravated by supportive data of oil switching, contributed to demand outperforming expectations largely in OECD and we now project global demand in 2022 to average 99.8 mb/d versus 99.5 mb/d in 2019. Growth concerns, however, driven by high inflation and ongoing supply bottlenecks, remain elevated, maintaining demand growth expectations confined to the 3 mb/d and 4 mb/d range. In terms of products, jet fuel remains a wildcard and it is currently seen persisting 8 per cent lower year-end.
Global supply growth is lowered to 5.5 mb/d in 2022 and is slightly upgraded to 2 mb/d in 2023. The OPEC+ tapering, US shale response and Iran return continue to dictate the outlook in 2022, as the size of available spare capacity and drilling activity to replenish lost production come into focus beyond the near-term. As the OPEC+ deal enters its final stretch uncertainty rises, with producers projected to struggle to return more than 2 mb/d in 2022 compared to the headline 3.76 mb/d. Moreover, as OPEC+ starts producing closer to its maximum capacity the spare capacity cushion diminishes and in conjunction with multiyear low stocks, they are seen raising geopolitical risk premium and supporting prices. Non-OPEC supply growth is little changed to 1.9 mb/d in 2022, with the pace of recovery seen accelerating driven by the US, albeit overall production is expected to remain 0.34 mb/d below 2019 levels.
The market surpluses in both 2022 and 2023 are lowered to 1 mb/d and 0.9 mb/d, respectively. Heading to 2022, the market faces a tight stocks position amid declining spare capacity, which are not expected to ease, exerting significant pressure on prices.
To purchase your copy of issue 11 please click
here.
Sponsors, Benefactors and Press please email
Andreas Economou for a copy.
[post_title] => OIES Oil Monthly - Issue 11
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[post_date] => 2022-02-08 11:38:04
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[post_content] => In this podcast David Ledesma discusses with Michal Meidan and James Henderson the main topics from the recently published paper “Key Themes for the Global Energy Economy in 2022”. The podcast begins with a discussion around rising European energy prices and Russian export strategy as well as the future of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. The conversation then moves on to address issues around the energy transition including the important topics discussed at COP26, before addressing the key milestones ahead of the COP27 conference in November 2022. The importance of China’s energy plans for 2022 and the planned negotiations with the US (agreed at COP26) are reviewed, before this wide-ranging podcast moves on to subjects such as the Global Methane Pledge, the future of carbon neutral LNG, the plans for hydrogen projects in 2022, the development of voluntary carbon markets and the prospects for CCUS. Finally the discussants address regulatory developments in Europe, and especially the EU taxonomy, while also reviewing India’s energy transition targets.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Key Themes for the Global Energy Economy in 2022
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[post_date] => 2022-02-02 11:48:23
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[post_content] => In this podcast David Ledesma discusses with Mike Fulwood, Jack Sharples and Katja Yafimava the latest OIES Quarterly Gas Review that takes an in-depth look at the impact on the European gas market of recent geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West over the Russian build-up of troops close to the Ukrainian border as well as the regular short-term gas market analysis. The podcast discusses the level of Europe’s dependence on Russian gas supplies and the relative lack of alternatives beyond quicker storage withdrawals and efforts to attract more cargoes from the global LNG market (due to declining European gas production and the fact that pipeline imports from Norway, North Africa, and Azerbaijan have already seemingly reached peak levels). While the discussion considers that it is unlikely that either European sanctions would prevent the purchase of Russian gas or that the Russian government would order a partial or complete curtailment of pipeline gas supplies to Europe in breach of long-term contracts; the outbreak of military conflict would almost certainly result in an immediate spike in European prices due to uncertainty over the pace and extent of the escalation of hostilities. The podcast also discusses the certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and asks if the gas could start flowing in 2022, or whether the Ukraine situation could delay approvals further or even lead to its cancellation.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Quarterly Gas Review: The impact of conflict in Ukraine on the European gas market
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[post_date] => 2022-01-26 11:40:05
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[post_content] => The Northern Sea Route (NSR) - an Arctic seas shortcut between Europe and Asia – has emerged as a new strategic opportunity for unlocking and monetizing Russia’s vast oil and gas reserves in the Arctic. In this podcast David Ledesma discusses with Vitaly Yermakov how the NSR is an important element of Russia’s Arctic strategy, that now incorporates active development of the hydrocarbon riches in the Russian Arctic, development of the Arctic ports and other infrastructure. The discussion also notes how expanding the use of the NSR will require Russia to expand its domestic capabilities in shipbuilding of Arctic-class tankers and the development of a new generation of nuclear icebreakers that involve economic multipliers and are seen as important engines of economic growth and job creation in Russia. Russia has formulated ambitious goals for increasing NSR transportation turnover by 2035, relying primarily on a handful of oil and LNG projects by Gazpromneft, Novatek, and Rosneft. From a geo-political standpoint, the NSR provides a new avenue for developing international relations with new and existing customers for Russian hydrocarbons, while also allowing Russia to compete with key rivals in a rapidly globalizing market.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - The role of the Northern Sea Route for Russia’s Arctic hydrocarbon developments and Russia’s LNG exports
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[post_content] => In this OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Professor Jonathan Stern about his latest paper, entitled “Measuring, Reporting and Verification of Methane Emissions from Natural Gas and LNG Trade.” Following the signing of the Global Methane Pledge at COP26 and the publication of the EU Methane Strategy the topic of methane emissions has become a priority for the energy sector, and Stern discusses the need for companies to be transparent and rigorous in their analysis of the problem. He also considers the examples of the six major pipeline gas and LNG suppliers to Europe in the context of the EU’s proposal to introduce a carbon border adjustment mechanism. Finally, he addresses the practical implications for “carbon neutral” LNG, and suggests a redefinition that focuses on the accurate measurement and reporting of GHG emissions before any offsetting mechanisms are considered.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Measuring, Reporting and Verification of Methane Emissions from Natural Gas and LNG Trade
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[post_date] => 2022-01-18 12:32:59
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[post_content] => This paper contains 20 short articles which outline the views of OIES research fellows on some of the key themes for the global energy economy in 2022. Starting with views on the short-term outlook for oil, electricity and gas markets, the articles move on to cover LNG supply and Russian export strategy as well as the future of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. The majority of the articles, though, are on issues around the energy transition, looking at the key milestones ahead of COP27 but also considering many of the most important topics discussed at COP26 where action now needs to be taken. These include the Global Methane Pledge, the development of voluntary carbon markets, the prospects for hydrogen projects, the building of a business case for CCUS and the need to update country NDCs in the next 12 months. The paper also looks at regional developments in the EU, India and China, and considers a number of legislative and regulatory topics that are likely to dominate environmental policy making in the energy sector during 2022.
[post_title] => Key Themes for the Global Energy Economy in 2022
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[post_date] => 2022-01-17 13:55:16
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[post_content] => Carbon capture and storage (CCS) involves the trapping of man-made CO
2 underground to avoid its release into the atmosphere. Because of the scale with which it could be applied, CCS is identified as a critical technology to reduce CO
2 emissions to achieve global climate goals. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) shows that most of the 1.5°C pathways assume significant use of CCS. For some energy-intensive hard-to-abate sectors such as steel and cement, technical options to reduce emissions without CCS are currently limited. CCS could reduce the cost of meeting climate targets as other sectors would otherwise have to pursue more expensive mitigation options. The Joint G20 Energy–Climate Ministerial Communiqué on July 2021 acknowledges the important role of carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) recognizing ‘the need for investment and financing for advanced and clean technologies, including CCUS/Carbon Recycling’ urging ‘all members to formulate such long-term strategies that set out pathways consistent to achieve balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removal by sinks’. This issue of the
Oxford Energy Forum examines the recent trends in CCUS and explores the regulatory and commercial barriers limiting the deployment of CCUS at a large scale. It gathers the thoughts of many leading researchers in the field of CCUS, on its business models, and the incentive schemes and regulatory frameworks surrounding it. The Forum also gathers views from a number of the key countries and regions including the EU, Norway, the UK, the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, China and Canada.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Forum - Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS): barriers, enabling frameworks and prospects for climate change - Issue 130
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[post_date] => 2022-01-13 11:24:28
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[post_content] => In this OIES podcast James Henderson talks with Professor Thane Gustafson about his new book entitled “Klimat: Russia in the Age of Climate Change”. They discuss the challenges which Russia will face from the energy transition both in terms of declining hydrocarbon export revenues and also from internal changes to the Russian environment. Professor Gustafson outlines the potential sources of alternative export revenues, including LNG, metals and minerals, agriculture, nuclear energy and renewables but concludes that none of them will be adequate to replace the huge hole that is set to be left in Russian budget revenues as oil, gas and coal demand and prices fall over time. He also looks at the impact of climate change in the Arctic, often regarded as a benefit for Russia, and argues that it will create as many negatives as positives. However, he concludes that, despite the potential bleak outlook, there is hope in the emerging new generation of Russian leaders who are aware of all the issues and have the potential to put the country on a more positive route to adaptation and diversification.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Klimat: Russia in the Age of Climate Change
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-podcast-klimat-russia-in-the-age-of-climate-change
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[post_date] => 2021-12-20 10:59:03
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[post_content] => In this podcast, David Ledesma talks to Jack Sharples about his recent paper on the supply-side factors behind the 2021 gas price rally in Europe, and the supply-side outlook for the rest of winter 2021/22. The ongoing decline in European gas production was exacerbated in 2021 by temporary maintenance-related declines in the UK and Denmark, while the rebound in 2022 will be limited. Pipeline supplies from Norway, Algeria, and Azerbaijan were higher year-on-year. Conversely, physical flows from Russia were virtually flat year-on-year, and down sharply from 2017-2019 levels. Global LNG supply grew year-on-year, but that growth was tempered by unplanned outages. Conversely LNG demand outside Europe grew strongly. As a result, LNG supplies to Europe were constrained compared to 2019 and 2020. To balance the market, substantial net withdrawals from storage were made in Q1 and Q4 2021, with slower than usual injections in Q2 and Q3, resulting in European storage stocks lower than usual at the end of the year. Overall, these supply-side constraints were key drivers of the 2021 gas price rally. Looking to Q1-2022, the combination of a modest supply-side outlook and lower than usual storage stocks will likely support prices at high levels through to the end of winter.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - A Series of Unfortunate Events: Supply-side factors in the European gas price rally in 2021 and outlook for the rest of winter
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[post_date] => 2021-12-14 10:45:02
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[post_content] => In this OIES podcast David Ledesma interviews Patrick Heather about his analysis of the European traded gas hubs in 2020 and the first ten months of 2021. The podcast highlights how TTF has continued to see phenomenal growth and its is the European hub that has the greatest number of market participants, trades the widest range of products over the entire curve and has by far the highest churn rate. NBP however, and the Belgian hubs, have continued to see decline. In the podcast Patrick notes that the European traded gas hubs have assisted the gas sector in managing their supply, distribution and sales needs, their physical balancing requirements, and their risk management and trading strategies and that they have been particularly important in the past two very difficult years, and that the markets have worked. The podcast also discussed the merger of the German hubs to create the New German Trading Hub Europe and concludes that its success to date have been limited.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - European Traded Gas Hubs: German THE fails to impress
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[post_date] => 2021-12-10 14:19:34
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[post_content] => In this podcast, David Ledesma talks to
Michal Meidan, (Director of the China Energy Programme at OIES),
Philip Andrews-Speed (Senior Research Fellow, OIES & Senior Principal Fellow at the Energy Studies Institute, National University of Singapore) and
Anders Hove, (Project Director for the Energy Transition project at GIZ & Research Associate, OIES) about the key takeaways from their paper :
“Software versus hardware: how China’s institutional setting helps and hinders the clean energy transition”. They discuss how China’s institutional settings and governance structures both help and hinder the energy transition. Indeed, some observers assume that China’s interventionist management of the economy and dominance of state-owned monopolies will hinder the transition as they limit market forces and private enterprise. Others point to China’s strong central state and high-level commitments to climate change to suggest that China’s institutions are better suited to addressing environmental problems than those of liberal democracies. The reality is that a strong central government can guide certain outcomes, but local governments, state-owned enterprises can slow change at times. Limited market signals can also slow progress. In this discussion, the speakers set out a preliminary framework for analysing the areas where technological and institutional factors make change more likely to be lasting and transformative, versus areas in which resistance will likely remain strong.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - China - Governance of the Energy Transition in China
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[post_date] => 2021-12-08 13:09:04
[post_date_gmt] => 2021-12-08 13:09:04
[post_content] =>
The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2023, is now available.
This month’s featured In Focus piece focuses on the key features of OPEC+ in the current cycle, the new dynamics emerging and the factors shaping its next move ahead. The decisions and measures made by OPEC+ over the past few months have paid off and have put the Group in the driving seat, able to cope with most of the downside risk barring a collapse in oil demand. The challenge for OPEC+ beyond 2022 may shift towards managing upside risks if demand surprises on the upside, the US shale and non-OPEC response remains limited, Iran fails to ramp up production and/or if outages and geopolitical disruptions become widespread. But if such a context does materialise, most OPEC+ members will be producing close to, or at, maximum capacity and the ability of OPEC+ to respond to shocks will diminish.
Our reference forecast for Brent is downgraded to $70.8/b from $71.6/b in 2021 and $76.6/b from $80.9/b in 2022 but remains relatively unchanged at $77.1/b in 2023. Following the $13/b price plunge in daily Brent end-November on the emergence of the Omicron variant, we have revised lower Q4 2021 price by $3.4/b to $81/b from $84.4/b previously. Lower than expected gas-to-oil switching and the market’s shift to surpluses in 2022 keep prices in the mid $70s range and account for the $4.3/b downward revision in 2022 this month. Prices are expected to strengthen again in 2023, supported mainly by supply factors. Demand side risks build on the downside near term around our reference forecast, mainly driven by Omicron concerns over its impact on global oil demand and in particular jet fuel. Supply risks shift the balance to the upside again ending 2022, driven by the inability of some OPEC+ producers to meet their targets, US shale sticking to capital discipline and Iran failing to ramp up production if a nuclear deal is not reached. Our analysis of balance of risks indicates that prices remain confined in the $70/b and $90/b range over our forecast horizon despite renewed market uncertainty.
Global oil demand growth is downgraded to 5.3 from 5.4 mb/d in 2021 and to 3.5 mb/d from 3.6 mb/d in 2022 and remains unchanged at 2.1 mb/d in 2023. Although the emergence of the Omicron variant adds new downside risks to the outlook, we remain cautious about the extent of negative effects on oil demand recovery which is seen slowing down rather than reversing. An immediate near-term impact is seen in the OECD in terms of regions and on jet fuel demand in terms of products, but negative effects could be quickly reversed. In the non-OECD, China’s oil demand is headed towards a soft start to 2022, but growth still has upside potential in H2.
Global supply growth is upgraded to 1.5 mb/d from 1.3 mb/d in 2021, but growth is lowered to 5.7 mb/d from 5.9 mb/d in 2022 and to 1.8 from 2.2 mb/d in 2023. The ability of OPEC+ producers to meet their targets will be a key dynamic in 2022, as involuntary compliance is expected to rise. As non-OPEC supply continues to recover, crude oil production growth remains unchanged at 2 mb/d in 2022, underpinned mainly by US, Russia and Canada.
The market deficit in 2021 in our reference scenario stands at -0.8 mb/d, followed by a 1.4 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d surplus in 2022 and 2023. Despite new demand concerns however, a more balanced market remains plausible in 2022 in some of the other scenarios we consider.
To purchase your copy of issue 10 please click
here.
Sponsors, Benefactors and Press please email
Andreas Economou for a copy.
[post_title] => OIES Oil Monthly - Issue 10
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[post_date] => 2021-11-23 15:16:54
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[post_content] => In this latest edition of the OIES podcast series David Ledesma and James Henderson reflect on the outcomes of COP26 from an energy sector perspective. They review the main goals of the COP and discuss the conclusions of both the formal UNFCCC process as well as a number of initiatives that were developed by the UK presidency. In particular they look at the future of coal as a result of various agreements reached in Glasgow and also consider the roles of China and India in the negotiations on this issue. They also summarise they important announcements on the global methane pledge and the final agreement on Article 6, which creates the rulebook for international carbon markets. Finally, they consider the impact of COP26 on the oil and gas sectors, and ask whether abated hydrocarbons can have a role in the future energy mix given the discussions on CCUS and hydrogen in Glasgow.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Reflections on COP26
[post_excerpt] =>
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[post_date] => 2021-11-19 13:43:04
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[post_content] => In this podcast related to the latest OIES Quarterly Gas Review, David Ledesma discusses with Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples the short-term gas pricing developments, with a focus on the very sharp rise in wholesale gas prices in recent months. The discussion considers the extent to which the growth in LNG demand outstripped supply at a global level, how Europe – as the ‘balancing market’ for global LNG – faced a combination of lower LNG imports, lower pipeline imports, and lower ‘domestic’ production, leaving storage to balance the market, the role of rising carbon and power prices in pushing up gas prices in Europe, and the influence of trading activities on surging European gas prices in September and October 2021. The conversation also focusses on the extent to which the factors that underpinned the gas price rally of 2021 were temporary (and thus liable to contribute to gas prices falling back in 2022) and the extent to which they are structural (supporting higher prices in the future). The podcast ends with Mike Fulwood summarising a special piece from the quarterly on LNG demand in South America.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Gas Quarterly – November 2021
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[post_date] => 2021-11-11 10:33:16
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[post_content] => This OIES podcast is based on Dr Katja Yafimava's new OIES Energy Insight "Nord Stream 2: on the verge of sending gas to Europe". In conversation with Dr James Henderson, Katja takes stock of Nord Stream 2 recent developments and muses on just how close - or far - the Nord Stream 2 pipeline system, two lines of which have been built and one line has been filled with gas, might be from sending gas to Europe. She outlines several scenarios, some of which see flows in winter 2021-22 and some - not until summer 2022, and discusses various factors, which might have an impact on which scenario will materialise, including the Ukraine's transit role post-2024. Katja also explains the intricacies of technical and regulatory certification processes, focusing on the latter, including in respect of security is supply assessment and the choice of unbundling model.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Nord Stream 2: on the verge of sending gas to Europe
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[post_date] => 2021-11-09 10:39:30
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[post_content] =>
The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our first oil market outlook for 2023, is now available.
This month’s featured In Focus piece focuses on the impact of China’s power crunch on diesel demand. China’s power outages have boosted diesel margins, especially in light of reduced output from the Shandong independents. The State-owned majors have been slow to fill the gap but will now need to raise throughputs and import crude to fill depleted stocks. But while they need to secure supplies, they must also avoid a product glut amid an uncertain demand outlook for 2022.
This issue sees our first oil market outlook for 2023. Our reference forecast for Brent stands at $71.6/b in 2021, $80.9/b in 2022 and $76.6/b in 2023. We see the recent price strength persisting in the near-term on the tightness in OECD stocks and fuel switching, but slow returning crude supplies from OPEC+ and more moderate gas-to-oil switching than currently expected are still seen to cap prices in the $80s range. Beyond the near-term, returning supplies are expected to start pulling back prices to the $70/b and $80/b range in H2 2022 as some OPEC+ producers are seen struggling to meet their targets and low investment takes a toll on supply growth elsewhere. This will lead to prices reversing again in 2023 and returning towards $80s. Overall, the risks to the outlook remain fairly balanced but a new price bound emerges in the $70/b and $90/b range as supply risks rise. Downside demand side risks dominate in the near-term due to Delta concerns and how much switching will actually take place. Supply risks build progressively to the upside beyond the near-term, on supply bottlenecks both in OPEC+ and non-OPEC, while Iran’s supply outlook remains a wildcard.
Global oil demand growth remains solid at 5.4 mb/d in 2021, 3.6 mb/d in 2022 and 2.1 mb/d in 2023. Oil switching in the near-term is expected to brush aside Delta concerns, while global demand growth in the medium run appears resilient in the face of some headwinds. We expect global oil demand to recover to 2019 levels in all quarters in 2022 and average 0.22 mb/d higher, before growing by another 2.1 mb/d in 2023. Global oil supply is set to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2021, 5.9 mb/d in 2022 and 2.2 mb/d in 2023. The ability of OPEC+ to return full supplies as per their plan and US shale response dictate the outlook, as low investment hampers growth elsewhere. By the end of the OPEC+ deal producers are now estimated to remain 1.9 mb/d below the 5.76 mb/d target, while US underpins non-OPEC growth in both 2022 and 2023 by 0.8 mb/d and 0.7 mb/d, respectively.
Following a -1 mb/d deficit in 2021, the oil market is projected to shift to surpluses in 2022 and 2023 by 1.3 mb/d and 1.4 mb/d, respectively. The substantial tightness in OECD stocks in 2021 that drew well below their 2015-2019 average means that there is now available gap to absorb the expected surpluses ahead without depressing the market, with stocks expected to normalize near their 2015-2019 average ending-2022.
Please email Andreas Economou for a copy of Issue 9.
[post_title] => OIES Oil Monthly - Issue 9
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[post_date] => 2021-11-04 13:10:35
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[post_content] => In this OIES podcast, recorded just before the start of the COP26 summit, James Henderson talks to Anupama Sen, a Senior Research Fellow at OIES, Deputy Director of the Energy Transition Research Initiative and Executive Director of the Electricity Research Programme. They discuss the role of gas in India’s energy economy, and its transition strategy in relation to COP26. Although the gas sector has often been viewed with a lot of promise by policy and market commentators, with some Indian policymakers recently supporting a move to a “gas-based economy”, the sector has historically underperformed. Anupama argues that the carbon constraint on economic growth limits the room for gas’s role in India’s energy transition, and in sectors such as power, gas’s role is likely to be marginal in relation to renewables, in the absence of any policy disincentives to the use of coal. James and Anupama discuss the reasons for the wide range of scenarios for gas demand in India spanning from the wildly optimistic to the deeply pessimistic, which serve to underpin the uncertainty around gas’s role in the energy transition. There will continue to be some gas demand growth during the energy transition in ‘anchor’ sectors such as fertilizer production, hard-to-decarbonize industry, and city gas distribution which is being driven by a push to replace traditional biomass with LPG in rural areas, and LPG with piped natural gas in urban areas. James and Anupama discuss the constraints to this growth, including pricing, infrastructure, and the two-tiered structure of demand. They conclude by discussing India’s likely stance at COP26, including its recent focus on the issue of apportionment of the remaining global ‘carbon budget’ among countries, and on technology and finance transfers.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - The future of gas in India's energy transition
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[post_date] => 2021-11-01 14:36:21
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In the latest OIES Quarterly Gas Review, we focus on short-term gas pricing developments discussing the very sharp rise in wholesale gas prices in recent months. With continued strong demand in Asia and Central and South America, alongside seemingly constrained supply, LNG available for Europe was limited. Moreover, in light of production issues, even higher pipeline imports seen from North Africa and the Caspian regions were unable to offset lower Russian volumes, compared to pre-Covid levels in 2019. The current very high prices would seem to incorporate a significant ‘fear’ premium of another cold winter, and with storage levels in Europe struggling to get back to acceptable levels, the prospect of real gas shortages looms large.
In the second and third sections of the report, we take a more detailed look at two specific factors which are impacting the global gas market. Firstly, Katja Yafimava looks at when Nord Stream 2 might be fully approved and gas volumes might start to flow, possibly alleviating supply constraints. Secondly, Leda Gomes discusses the reasons for the rise in LNG imports by Central and South America, which have further tightened the LNG market.
[post_title] => Quarterly Gas Review - Issue 15
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[post_name] => quarterly-gas-review-issue-115
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[post_date] => 2021-10-27 10:30:30
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[post_content] => In this OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Malcolm Keay, a Senior Research Fellow at OIES, about his article “COP26: This time it’s serious” which was published in the latest edition of the Oxford Energy Forum. Malcolm discusses the history of COP agreements since Kyoto, and in particular focuses on the importance of COP21 in Paris and the agreement reached there which is now being reviewed and updated at COP26. He also talks about the main challenges that will face governments and policy-makers during the COP26 negotiations and also considers the real issues that will be faced in the implementation of any agreement. He outlines his views on the need for a whole energy system approach that will require radical policy shifts from governments as well as changes in behaviour from energy producers and consumers. He concludes that, while COP26 is likely to see a continuation of the policy momentum towards a net-zero future, the real challenges will come once the meeting is over.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - COP26: This time it’s serious
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[post_date] => 2021-10-20 11:43:54
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[post_content] => In this OIES podcast James Henderson, Director of the OIES Energy Transition Research Initiative, talks with Michal Meidan, Director of the Gas and China Energy Research Programmes at OIES, about China's environmental policies and the country's position ahead of COP26. Michal discusses China's history of environmental diplomacy and addresses the somewhat ambiguous position the country has at present. On the one hand it has set a net zero emissions target, is aiming to be a leader on environmental issue and sees itself as a champion of the needs of developing countries. However, on the other it is the world's biggest emitter of GHG's, has an energy economy still based around coal and is embroiled in a trade dispute with the US which could derail the climate negotiations. In light of this, the podcast aims to provide a balanced view of China's ambitions at COP26 and the likelihood of it achieving its goals. The podcast reflects the views outlined in Michal's article published in the most recent Oxford Energy Forum entitled "COP26 - Examining the Balance between Ambitious Pledges and Realistic Expectations."
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - COP26 and China
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[post_date] => 2021-10-13 11:09:41
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[post_content] => In this extended OIES podcast David Ledesma talks to James Henderson, the Director of the Energy Transition Research Initiative at OIES, about the recent special edition of the Oxford Energy Forum entitled "COP 26 - Examining the Balance between Ambitious Pledges and Realistic Expectations." The discussion ranges from a general overview of the key issues that will be discussed at the COP in Glasgow next month, including new environmental pledges, the development of carbon markets and financing of the energy transition in the developing world, to more specific views on the ambitions and attitudes of various key countries in the climate negotiations. China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Japan and Brazil are all mentioned, as well as the key issue of how the US will address the COP26 negotiations. Overall, the podcast presents an overview of the 18 articles in the current Forum and offers a thought-provoking survey of the key challenges being faced at COP26.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - COP26 Examining the balance between ambitious pledges and realistic expectations
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[post_date] => 2021-10-07 11:44:36
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[post_content] => While the recent rise in electricity prices has generated a lot of debate and concern among some commentators, other analysts have argued that the rises were a predictable and transient event, and that we should move on. In this OIES Energy Podcast , Anupama Sen talks to Rahmat Poudineh and David Robinson of the OIES Electricity Research Programme to place the recent events in context. David and Rahmat discuss why European electricity prices have risen so steeply this year, the consequences for residential consumers, industry, and electricity suppliers, and the market and policy responses in specific countries. They conclude by discussing some lessons that could potentially help minimize the negative impacts of similar events in the future.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Electricity Price Rises: exploring the context and implications
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[post_date] => 2021-10-06 11:26:23
[post_date_gmt] => 2021-10-06 10:26:23
[post_content] =>
The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook, is now available.
This month’s featured In Focus piece focuses on West African crudes and their important role as a bellwether for the strength of the recovery. Given the uncertainties still surrounding the oil market and the prevalence of the view that the market can only go in one direction for the foreseeable future, the shift in West African crude trade flows, and their pricing in the next few months, will provide us with important clues regarding the extent of the strength of the demand recovery and its evenness.
Our reference forecast for Brent is upgraded to $69.4/b in 2021 and $71.7/b in 2022. The upper bound has moved to above $80/b in our forecast horizon for the first time in 2021. Although futures Brent has broken the $80/b mark recently, our monthly reference forecast sees Brent retreating back into the $70s for the remainder of 2021 and falling into the low-$70s in Q1 2022 as market balances shift from deficit to surplus. In H2 2022, our reference forecast reverts to the high $70s and the upper bound moves back into the $80/b and $85/b range, as surpluses begin to ease keeping an upward pressure on our outlook. Risks around the outlook are now balanced, as new supply/demand risks on the upside pertaining to supply constraints and potential near-term oil-switching in power generation, offset pandemic-driven demand risks and bottleneck pressures. Global oil demand growth is lowered to 5.3 mb/d in 2021 on softer growth in Asia and is slightly upgraded in 2022 to 3.35 mb/d. Global supply continues to battle widespread outages and low investment, with global oil supply growth lowered to 1.4 mb/d from 1.6 mb/d in 2021 and to 6.1 mb/d from 6.4 mb/d in 2022. Market balances are seen in deficit for the entirety of 2021 estimated at -1 mb/d, before shifting into a 1.8 mb/d surplus in 2022. Risks around the outlook however are skewed on the upside and are mainly confined on the supply side, expected to further narrow the projected surpluses in 2022.
[post_title] => OIES Oil Monthly - Issue 8
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[post_date] => 2021-10-05 10:56:47
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[post_content] => China’s announcement that it will release oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is a hugely significant policy initiative, but it is first and foremost a test of mechanisms rather than an attempt to impact oil markets and flows. In this Podcast, David Ledesma talks to Michal Meidan about the SPR oil release, the drivers and likely implications. Given the small size of the release and the structure of the China domestic product pricing mechanism, this draw down is unlikely to significantly impact on producer price inflation. This, the first auction, should therefore be seen as a test of the newly created SPR mechanism and, if deemed a success by the government, it may lead to further stock draw down if the China market requires. But even these subsequent auctions are unlikely to alter China’s import needs as storage levels will still need to be replenished at some point. Any short-term reduction in crude buying will be related to low refining margins and a weak demand outlook rather than the SPR release process.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - China’s SPR release: a test of mechanisms rather than a show of market might
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[post_date] => 2021-09-30 12:10:47
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[post_content] => In this podcast, David Ledesma talks to Mike Fulwood, Jack Sharples and Mostefa Ouki about the current gas price rally, the outlook for the winter and potential risks. Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples discuss the drivers behind the current bull run on gas prices, unpacking the differences in gas supply and demand in the first eight months of 2021 compared to the same period in 2019 (the last pre-pandemic year). Even though, during this period, nameplate global LNG export capacity rose roughly in line with global LNG demand, a series of unplanned outages have taken a substantial volume of LNG off the global market, causing it to tighten significantly. In Europe, while demand in 2021 was similar to 2019, declines in production, pipeline imports, and LNG imports left the market struggling to balance through swings in the use of storage stocks, shifting from net injections in 2019 to net withdrawals in 2021. Mostefa Ouki then discusses the potential impact of a non-renewal of the transit agreement for the Gazoduc Maghreb Europe (GME) pipeline that supplies Algerian gas to the Iberian Peninsula. While the non-renewal may not have material impact on the market in the medium to long term, in the context of volatile gas prices currently, it could become a preoccupation for Europe.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Why are gas prices so high?
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[post_date] => 2021-09-28 11:11:29
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[post_content] => COP26, which is to be held in Glasgow in the first two weeks of November, is set to be a defining moment in global climate negotiations as almost 200 countries come together to review their environmental performance since 2015 and to set new emissions targets for 2030. In this special edition of the Oxford Energy Forum we have gathered the thoughts of many leading researchers in the field of energy and the environment to review both the overall expectations for the COP and the challenges which are likely to be faced in reaching global agreement on a series of very complex issues. We have also gathered views from a number of the key countries involved in the negotiations, including major energy exporters and importers, in order to provide a variety of different perspectives on the negotiations. Articles on China, India, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Russia the EU and Brazil, as well as thoughts from the UK, which holds the presidency of COP26, underline the broad range of bargaining positions that will be taken into this vital meeting, while the Forum also provides insights into a number of key issues that are likely to feature in the negotiations such as climate justice, the role of net zero targets, the potential of CCUS and the role of nuclear power in the energy transition.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Forum - COP 26—Examining the balance between ambitious pledges and realistic expectations - Issue 129
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[post_date] => 2021-09-15 11:33:24
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[post_content] => Canada is considered a world leader in the deployment of carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technologies, with 17 per cent of total installed capacity globally. Strategically, the federal government has positioned carbon capture as an imperative for the continued extraction, processing and utilization of the country’s vast oilsands and natural gas deposits in a low-carbon economy. CCUS is also viewed as an enabler of the planned hydrogen economy through the production of blue hydrogen. The latter in turn is considered the bridge to zero-emission green hydrogen produced from either electrolysis or the carbon captured from bioenergy. Combined with a sharply increasing carbon price, which will make CCUS implementation more economic, this has resulted in several major project announcements spanning the oil, gas and chemicals industries. If actualized, these would result in the creation of a major CCUS and hydrogen hub in the province of Alberta, and the largest carbon takeaway capacity in the world with nearly 75 MtCO
2 transported for sequestration annually. Despite the enthusiasm and the statements of intent, there are still challenges that need to be met and addressed. These include regulatory certainty, CCUS technology selection, project finance and concerns about increasing methane emissions from higher natural gas production. Canada has demonstrated that it can execute and operate world-class CCUS projects like Shell Canada’s Quest and the Alberta Carbon Trunk Line (ACTL). These successes have instilled a moderate degree of confidence in the pathway and accelerated the momentum for CCUS. Resolving the current challenges will provide greater assurance and ensure the ability of CCUS to unlock Canada’s vision of a hydrogen economy.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - CCUS in Canada
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[post_modified] => 2021-09-15 11:41:49
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[post_date] => 2021-09-09 10:33:10
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[post_content] => In a new OIES Energy Podcast, Dr James Henderson and Dr Anupama Sen discuss their new paper on
The Energy Transition: Key Challenges for Incumbent and New Players in the Global Energy System, with David Ledesma. The paper attempts to synthesize the key challenges and consequences of the energy transition, both for incumbent actors and new entrants, and for the countries in which they operate. Building on and extending previous and ongoing OIES research on the Energy Transition, the paper aims to conceptualise a framework upon which further research can be undertaken on these pathways, and sets out the key consequences of them for the overall energy system. It explores the potential impact on the energy value chain, looking at the future of networks, the consequences for and interactions with consumers, and the implications for corporate business models. It then considers the evolution and development of markets, both for existing and future energy products, before looking at the changes from the perspectives of different regions and sectors, acknowledging that many countries and industries are embarking on the energy transition from very different starting points and that any attempts to reach a global consensus must take this into account in order to provide a “just and inclusive transition”. It then looks at potential sectoral developments for energy-consuming sectors such as heating and transport, and finally, it considers the consequences of the adjustments to the global energy economy on geopolitics and energy security.
[post_title] => New Oxford Energy Podcast - The Energy Transition: Key Challenges for Incumbent and New Players in the Global Energy System
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[post_modified] => 2021-09-09 10:35:39
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[ID] => 44120
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[post_date] => 2021-09-08 10:55:53
[post_date_gmt] => 2021-09-08 09:55:53
[post_content] => The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook, is now available.
This month’s featured
In Focus piece focuses on India’s oil demand and on the headwinds that compromise a surprise recovery similar to 2020. Following the devastating impact of the second COVID wave on India’s product demand in April 2021, demand rebounded strongly between July and August with gasoline and jet fuel leading the recovery. In contrast, gasoil continues to show signs of weakness reflecting a very uneven recovery compounded by pre-COVID-19 economic challenges. Another headwind facing India’s oil demand is the high domestic retail price, in part due to rising crude prices, but, more importantly, due to higher excise duties with taxation of petroleum products constituting a key source for federal government and states’ revenues.
Our reference forecast for Brent is little changed at $68.9/b in 2021 and $70.7/b in 2022. Absent any downside surprises pertaining mainly to demand-side risks, oil prices are still seen holding above $70/b for the remainder of 2021. But as we enter 2022, oil prices are expected to retreat to the mid-$60s before gaining momentum again towards the end of 2022 as the rebound of global demand accelerates, OPEC+ completes the return of its cuts shrinking the spare capacity cushion, and non-OPEC supply growth outside North America remains muted. Optimism for a strong demand recovery in H2 2021 wanes over pandemic concerns, with y/y growth in 2021 downgraded to 5.5 mb/d from 5.7 mb/d, but some catch-up is seen in 2022 with global demand projected to grow by 3.3 mb/d from 3.2 mb/d previously. Global oil supply is expected to grow by 1.6 mb/d in 2021 and 6.4 mb/d in 2022. The supply outlook is mainly driven by OPEC+ decision to gradually increase its output. Overall, the market can absorb the expected increase in OPEC+ output towards the end of 2021, with deficits persisting throughout and averaging to -0.8 mb/d for the year as a whole, but the market balance flips into a 2.3 mb/d surplus in 2022. Balances however could still find support from either the supply or demand side of the market in 2022, or both, narrowing the surpluses and leading to a more balanced market; reaffirming the importance of OPEC+ supply management.
[post_title] => OIES Oil Monthly - Issue 7
[post_excerpt] =>
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[post_name] => oies-oil-monthly-issue-7
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[224] => WP_Post Object
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[ID] => 44105
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[post_date] => 2021-09-03 13:48:20
[post_date_gmt] => 2021-09-03 12:48:20
[post_content] => In this podcast David Ledesma discusses with Christine Brandstätt and Rahmat Poudineh the potential for market-based allocation and differentiation of access rights to network capacity in electricity distribution grids.
Traditionally most electricity distribution systems have been allocating network capacity universally and employing listed prices to finance existing capacity along with regulatory planning based on expert projections to provide future grid capacity. When electricity network access is universal, capacity assigned to one user may be blocked for others, at least to a certain extent, even when it is not used. To facilitate coordination and efficient system development, access rights may vary regarding quantity, direction, location, depth, time, and firmness. Access or use which triggers a lower incremental cost can be cheaper, and thus provide incentives to adjust demand for capacity. This optimizes network cost and maximizes efficiency.
The main strength of regulated pricing is that it protects consumers from paying monopoly prices to the network. Yet, one obvious limitation is the requirement of information on the level and elasticity of demand as well as on network cost specific to the respective type of use. Market mechanisms and particularly auctions are now widely used in the electricity sector yet markets for network capacity are less common. Market mechanisms can be used first to assign access rights and subsequently also to trade those rights. With an adequate auction design it might be possible to balance the benefits of access rights differentiation and market-based allocation against the related complexity, resulting transaction costs and the negative effects of market power.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Market-based allocation and differentiation of access rights to network capacity in distribution grids
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[post_modified] => 2021-09-03 13:48:40
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[225] => WP_Post Object
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[post_date] => 2021-08-25 10:47:23
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[post_content] => The last 20 years has seen considerable growth in the number of floating offshore facilities; mainly for oil and gas production as well as LNG storage and regasification, and more recently for LNG liquefaction. Floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs) for importing LNG, use standardised technology and have become popular since they can generally be deployed more quickly and at a lower cost than onshore facilities. They can be coupled with a Floating Power Plant (FPP) to provide cost effective LNG to Power solutions that can be quickly deployed. In this podcast David Ledesma discusses with Mike Wyllie five different types of ‘LNG to Power’ project structures and specifically the concept of a Floating Storage, Regasification and Power Generation Unit (FSRP) that combines and integrates the FSRU and FPP functions into a single vessel. Although the combined FRSU + FPP solution is well proven, the FSRP allows efficiency gains through better heat integration, as well as a lower CAPEX and OPEX, bringing the opportunity for a lower levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). But the lack of maturity will require a longer project schedule for the prototype units. Will there be enough of an incentive in the lower LCOE to convince potential clients to accept the longer schedule?
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Developments in the ‘LNG to Power’ market and the growing importance of floating facilities
[post_excerpt] =>
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-podcast-developments-in-the-lng-to-power-market-and-the-growing-importance-of-floating-facilities
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[post_date] => 2021-08-18 11:41:19
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[post_content] => The floating regasification unit (FRU) arrived at Tema port, Ghana, on May 26 2021 and this unit, in conjunction with the dedicated storage vessel new-build 180,000 m3 Vasant 1, heralds the start of LNG imports into Ghana. In this podcast David Ledesma discusses with Mike Fulwood the Ghana and West African gas market, imports into Ghana from the West Africa Gas Pipeline and potential LNG imports into the region. The discussion also addresses several uncertainties on LNG imports - Could gas demand be weaker than expected? Could domestic production growth be stronger than anticipated? Will piped gas imports from Nigeria, still in force majeure, start up again and can LNG imports be economic? In conclusion Mike Fulwood suggests a range of LNG volumes needed in Ghana over the next 5 years from almost no cargoes to possibly 10 to 15 cargoes a year – up to 1 mtpa.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Does Ghana Need LNG?
[post_excerpt] =>
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-podcast-does-ghana-need-lng
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[post_modified] => 2021-08-18 11:41:19
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[227] => WP_Post Object
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[ID] => 43930
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[post_date] => 2021-08-11 10:22:53
[post_date_gmt] => 2021-08-11 09:22:53
[post_content] => With European hub prices climbing to record levels for this time of year, a question that has been increasingly asked by analysts is whether Gazprom is leveraging its market power to maintain such prices, specifically by holding back the amount of gas it is flowing to Europe via Ukraine. In this Podcast David Ledesma talks to Jack Sharples to discuss his chapter in the recent OIES Gas Quarterly “
Gazprom’s summer sales strategy and capacity bookings via Ukraine” that shows that while the Ukrainian system is physically capable of flowing more than at present, there are nuances around the type of duration of capacity that GTSOU (the Ukrainian TSO) is offering at its auctions. Equally, Gazprom is well within its rights to pursue a strategy that maximises its sales revenues across its substantial (and largely hub-indexed) European LTC portfolio, by meeting all its counterparty LTC nominations but not offering substantial near-term volumes to European hubs.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Gazprom’s summer sales strategy and capacity bookings via Ukraine
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
[comment_status] => closed
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-podcast-gazproms-summer-sales-strategy-and-capacity-bookings-via-ukraine
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[228] => WP_Post Object
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[ID] => 43906
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[post_date] => 2021-07-29 13:04:31
[post_date_gmt] => 2021-07-29 12:04:31
[post_content] => In this OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Katja Yafimava and Kim Talus about the recent judgement by EU Court of Justice (made on the 15th July 2021), which rejected a German appeal concerning the 2016 OPAL exemption decision and reinstated the 2009 OPAL exemption, under which Gazprom’s OPAL bookings are restricted by 50%. The judgment has specific consequences for the OPAL pipeline and Gazprom’s ability to flow gas to Europe, but also has broader implications for the use of the energy solidarity principle in many other cases concerning EU energy decisions. Katja and Kim discuss how this latest ruling has left a lot of unanswered questions about how the solidarity principle should be understood and applied in future, and they provide thoughts on why this issue has emerged and how it might be resolved.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - OPAL Judgement
[post_excerpt] =>
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[post_password] =>
[post_name] => oxford-energy-podcast-opal-judgement
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[post_modified] => 2021-07-29 13:04:31
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[229] => WP_Post Object
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[ID] => 43891
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[post_date] => 2021-07-21 11:29:44
[post_date_gmt] => 2021-07-21 10:29:44
[post_content] => The world’s shipping fleet is responsible for approximately 0.9 Gt of CO2 emissions annually, around 2.9 per cent of the world’s man-made emissions. Under an IEA ‘business as usual’ scenario, this is forecast to rise to almost 1.7 Gt per year by 2050. The industry’s principal regulatory body, the International Maritime Organization (IMO), aims to reduce world shipping’s greenhouse gas emissions in line with the 2015 Paris Agreement targeting a 50 per cent reduction, compared with 2008 levels, by 2050. The cost of achieving these emission targets however is about $1 trillion and will require focus from regulators, operators and end consumers, who in the end will have to pay. In this podcast David Ledesma talks to Bruce Moore, Howe Robinson Partners, to discuss these issues and ask, in such a fragmented industry, what the immediate priorities for the marine sector must be, and how can it bring about a mix of commercial incentives and regulatory change that result in tangible emissions reductions.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - The role of Ammonia and Hydrogen in meeting International Maritime Organisation targets for decarbonising shipping
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-podcast-the-role-of-ammonia-and-hydrogen-in-meeting-international-maritime-organisation-targets-for-decarbonising-shipping
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[post_modified] => 2021-07-21 11:29:44
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[post_date] => 2021-07-15 14:06:30
[post_date_gmt] => 2021-07-15 13:06:30
[post_content] => Since January 2017, when even COP21 targets were considered `challenging’ and net-zero targets were not yet under consideration, let alone mainstream, Jonathan Stern has published five papers under the theme 'The Future of Gas'. These papers have created considerable debate amongst the gas community. In this podcast David Ledesma and Jonathan Stern look back over this period and discuss how the climate journey has developed and where it is today, especially in relation to natural gas and LNG. The discussion then looks forward and addresses the next issues for the gas community to achieve net-zero targets including: methane emissions, the challenges facing the `blue’ hydrogen business, and whether litigation will become a key tool for achieving climate targets.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - The Future of Gas in the climate journey: developments over the last four (and a half) years and what next?
[post_excerpt] =>
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[post_modified] => 2021-08-19 10:38:05
[post_modified_gmt] => 2021-08-19 09:38:05
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[post_date] => 2021-07-12 10:52:22
[post_date_gmt] => 2021-07-12 09:52:22
[post_content] => The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook, is now available.
This month’s featured
In Focus piece focuses on China’s crackdown on the Shandong teapots through the imposition of a consumption tax on blendstocks and tighter scrutiny over import quota trading. The
In Focus argues that the crackdown bodes well for the state-owned refiners and since it will take as much as 1.5 mb/d of products off the domestic markets, state-owned refiners will need to import more crude oil while exporting less products. But in the process of the state-owned refineries regaining market share, both international crude flows and domestic product balances are about to be shaken up.
Our reference forecast for Brent is upgraded to $68.7/b in 2021 and $68.9/b in 2022. Oil prices are projected to remain in the $70/b and $80/b range for the rest of 2021 as global oil demand heads towards a strong second half of the year. But absent any upside surprises, prices are seen retreating to the mid-to-high $60s in 2022. Global oil demand growth in 2021 stands at a solid 5.7 mb/d with the US, Europe and China taking over the growth baton, followed by 3.2 mb/d in 2022. Global supply growth in 2021 is upgraded by 2.1 mb/d and 6.3 mb/d in 2022 on the assumption that OPEC+ gradually eases its cut and Iran ramps up production by Q2 2022. Non-OPEC supply growth remains modest in 2021 before gaining some momentum in 2022 with the US leading the growth. Deficits will persist in 2021 and average to 0.7 mb/d for the year as a whole, but with ample supplies returning to the market in 2022, market balances are expected to flip into surpluses anew by 2.4 mb/d. This highlights the importance of OPEC+ balancing role, as supply management will remain crucial well into 2022.
[post_title] => OIES Oil Monthly - Issue 6
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[post_name] => oies-oil-monthly-issue-6
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[post_modified] => 2021-07-12 10:53:02
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[post_date] => 2021-07-06 10:59:17
[post_date_gmt] => 2021-07-06 09:59:17
[post_content] => In this extended podcast the OIES celebrates its 100
th Podcast recording. David Ledesma, Bassam Fattouh, James Henderson, Michal Meidan and Anupama Sen discuss the key changes in the energy market since the first edition was recorded in 2017 and look forward to what topics will form the basis of the next 100 podcasts over the next 3 to 4 years - a period of approximately 3000 days. These include:
Oil: how the oil market has responded to the growth of shale oil supply; Saudi oil policy, and how the oil market will respond to the COVID pandemic.
China: the country has always been a key part of the energy market but the last few years has seen its importance increase in both oil and gas as security of supply has become increasingly important – how will the China market be reformed and at what pace?
The Energy Transition: a subject that is becoming increasingly important and will see greater attention and focus on decarbonising the gas sector; how a hydrogen economy can emerge globally; the role of a carbon border adjustment mechanism; CCS, and the adoption of a circular economy, intertwined in changing global geopolitics.
[post_title] => 100th Oxford Energy Podcast - Energy Market Changes over 3000 days
[post_excerpt] =>
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[post_name] => 100th-oxford-energy-podcast-energy-market-changes-over-3000-days
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[post_modified] => 2021-07-07 10:47:55
[post_modified_gmt] => 2021-07-07 09:47:55
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[post_date] => 2021-06-28 14:07:51
[post_date_gmt] => 2021-06-28 13:07:51
[post_content] => By popular demand, Katja Yafimava discusses the current situation surrounding the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and the prospects for its future use with James Henderson in this latest Oxford Energy podcast. She provides an overview of the current issues concerned with the construction of the pipe before discussing the key legislative and regulatory landmarks that will determine the level of Russian gas exports which will ultimately be able to flow to Europe via this route. Katja also considers the impact of sanctions on the project, as well as reviewing Nord Stream 2 within the context of Russia’s overall gas exports to Europe, including the prospects for future exports via Ukraine.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - The Outlook for Nord Stream 2
[post_excerpt] =>
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-podcast-the-outlook-for-nord-stream-2
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[post_modified] => 2021-06-28 14:17:57
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[234] => WP_Post Object
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[ID] => 43809
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[post_date] => 2021-06-23 11:00:46
[post_date_gmt] => 2021-06-23 10:00:46
[post_content] => The appetite for a ‘hydrogen market’ has been growing in the past year or two and is often called a ‘market’ by governments, regulators and other energy industry players. The question is what ‘hydrogen market’ are they referring to as there is currently no such market established? In this podcast, David Ledesma talks to Patrick Heather, Senior Research Fellow at the OIES and discusses how a future traded hydrogen market might develop, what the prerequisites would be for the development of a wholesale market, and whether there are lessons to be learned from the development of the European natural gas market. The podcast ends up by asking the fundamental question - If the European gas market took 25-30 years to liberalise and develop a liquid traded pricing hub, where are we headed with hydrogen? Will we ever see a traded market in hydrogen and what must happen to get there? Patrick is cautiously optimistic in his response!
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - How a traded hydrogen market might develop - lessons from the natural gas industry
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[235] => WP_Post Object
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[ID] => 43802
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[post_date] => 2021-06-16 10:41:03
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[post_content] => As the world’s largest integrated energy and chemicals company, Saudi Aramco continues to invest in technologies and innovative business models to enable the sustainable use of hydrocarbon resources across the value chain. In this podcast David Ledesma discusses with Yasser Mufti, Vice President Strategy & Market Analysis, Saudi Aramco about Saudi Aramco’s perspectives on hydrogen, its opportunities, and challenges. This wide-ranging interview discusses Saudi Aramco’s investment in new technologies and the sustainable use of its hydrocarbon resources, before addressing the role of hydrogen in achieving a low emissions economy, possible business models and the barriers to achieving hydrogen’s growth. The podcast then moves on to discuss ammonia, carbon capture utilisation and storage, finishing up with a forward-looking perspective on the vision for Saudi Aramco asking how will the company look in 2050 and specifically whether it will still be a hydrocarbon company?
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Saudi Aramco’s Perspectives on Hydrogen: Opportunities and Challenges
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[post_date] => 2021-06-03 12:08:26
[post_date_gmt] => 2021-06-03 11:08:26
[post_content] => The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated challenges faced by hydrocarbon exporters in the Gulf owing to the global push to transition to cleaner energy sources. In this podcast, Manal Shehabi (OIES) discusses with David Ledesma a recent OIES-KFAS workshop held in April 2021 titled “Energy Transition Post-Pandemic in the Gulf States,” held with support from the Kuwait Foundation for the Advancement of Sciences (KFAS). They discuss separate but interrelated issues on clean energy, economic and climate sustainability, and hydrogen. Specially, they examine how the global energy transition outlook has changed post-pandemic, along with its impacts on Gulf States’ economies and energy transition projects. They explain implications to Gulf states’ sustainability, evaluating whether these countries are fiscally sustainable post-pandemic and their urgent need for energy and economic diversification. They focus in on the possibility of the Gulf States’ using hydrogen to diversify both in domestic and export markets, evaluating opportunities and challenges for both blue and green hydrogen. A preliminary case study on the economics of hydrogen in Kuwait is highlighted as indication of whether Gulf states can produce green hydrogen competitively. They conclude with policy recommendations to increase economic sustainability and resilience post-pandemic, both through the energy transition and responses to it.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Energy Transition Post-Pandemic in the Gulf: Clean Energy, Sustainability and Hydrogen
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[post_date] => 2021-06-02 11:52:36
[post_date_gmt] => 2021-06-02 10:52:36
[post_content] => The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly including our latest short-term oil market outlook is now available.
This month’s featured
In Focus piece focuses on the ongoing talks for the revival of the JCPOA and analyses what lifting the US sanctions means for oil markets. The potential return of Iranian supplies is not expected to disrupt prices and oil balances as the oil market appears better suited to absorb the returning Iranian barrels in H2 2021, conditional that the strong demand expectations materialise. The biggest impact will be felt on spreads and condensate prices, given the expectation of destocking and discounts on offer.
Our reference forecast for Brent is upgraded to $65.2/b in 2021 and $68.7/b in 2022. The Brent prospect is now lifted above our reference forecast for the first time since the start of the pandemic. The risks to our reference outlook in 2021 are broadly balanced, while they remain in negative territory in 2022. Global oil demand growth in 2021 is downgraded by 0.19 mb/d to 5.5 mb/d and upgraded in 2022 by 0.27 mb/d to 3.2 mb/d. Following a weaker Q1 2021, strong economic data and the acceleration of vaccine roll outs continue to paint a positive picture for a strong demand rebound in H2, albeit there remains considerable uncertainty as to whether the extent of the recovery will meet expectations. Global oil supply growth in 2021 is upgraded at 1.7 mb/d and at 4.1 mb/d in 2022. Iran’s return and higher output from OPEC+ as producers enter the final phase of their historic cut deal lead the growth, while non-OPEC supply continues to recover at a slow pace, with gains seen accelerating in H2 2021. The market is expected to remain in deficit in 2021 by 0.9 mb/d and near balance in 2022.
[post_title] => OIES Oil Monthly - Issue 5
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[post_date] => 2021-05-28 13:33:30
[post_date_gmt] => 2021-05-28 12:33:30
[post_content] => As weather caused a surge in gas demand across the northern hemisphere in Q1 2021, LNG cargoes were diverted to NE Asia and European storage stocks were rapidly drawn down to balance the global market. This depleted the substantial stocks that had accumulated over the past two mild winters. Looking forward, the TTF forward curve, and the Asian prices as well, may well be incorporating a “fear” premium based on the events of the winter just gone when Asian buyers were caught by the very cold weather. In the absence of sufficiently strong Asian LNG demand in 2021 and/or a failure of European pipeline imports to rebound, it seems rather more likely that prices during the summer will fall below those of the forward curve. This would prompt both greater injections into European storage and the stimulation of greater LNG imports into the most price-sensitive markets, which could reduce the likelihood of LNG shut-ins this summer.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Quarterly Gas Review-Issue 13
[post_excerpt] =>
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-podcast-quarterly-gas-review-issue-13
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[post_date] => 2021-05-25 11:04:25
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[post_content] => This issue of the
Oxford Energy Forum is devoted to analysing the recent shifts in oil trade flows and the major developments in pricing benchmarks in Middle East crude and products markets.
The region is experiencing a series of dramatic structural changes that are transforming crude and products flows, as well as leading to an increased focus on the price benchmarks used to underpin activity in the region. The Gulf countries traditionally exported crude oil, while also importing much of the refined products that they required. The construction of several major refineries around the Gulf has changed this model, turning the region into an exporter of refined products. This new focus on refined products in part reflects the increased domestic demand within the region, as local populations grow and as energy-intensive industries develop.
Meanwhile, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on energy demand has weighed particularly heavily on the Gulf as one of the world’s major suppliers of hydrocarbons, exposing some of the cracks in existing oil benchmarks, oil price assessment processes, and the relationship between the different benchmarks.
The pressures on governments and the region’s national oil companies to ensure they are maximizing their revenues from their crude oil and products exports is leading to a new focus on the trading activity and pricing mechanisms that underpin the Gulf’s exports, with recent months seeing some major changes—such as ADNOC removing destination restrictions on its crude grades and moving from a retroactive to a forward-pricing model. With the launch of the ICE Futures Abu Dhabi (IFAD), the region now has two exchanges (IFAD and the Dubai Mercantile Exchange (DME)) and two crude oil futures contracts, while the incumbent benchmark (Platts Dubai) continues to attract liquidity and remains dominant in pricing crude going out of the region. And the COVID-19 demand shock gave Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) oil futures contracts a boost, as excess supply of oil naturally gravitated to China, the biggest oil importing country in the world, increasing spot activity in delivered barrels into the country. As Middle East–Asia crude and products trade flows become more important over time, and as the role of Asia as the most important demand centre consolidates further, the role of Asian players in pricing crude and products will only increase and the desire to turn regional benchmarks into global ones will only intensify. But as trade flows between the Middle East and Asia consolidate, the nature of the relationship will continue to evolve, with consequences on the pricing of crude and products. While Asia will remain the main importer of Middle East crude, refiners in the Middle East and Asia will increasingly compete on products markets and petrochemicals, as both have very ambitious plans to expand refining capacity and integrate refining assets with petrochemicals.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Forum - Middle East Oil Pricing Systems in Flux - Issue 128
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-forum-middle-east-oil-pricing-systems-in-flux-issue-128
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[240] => WP_Post Object
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[post_date] => 2021-05-24 11:32:31
[post_date_gmt] => 2021-05-24 10:32:31
[post_content] => Alex Barnes discusses his latest paper on carbon pricing with James Henderson in this latest Oxford Energy podcast. He provides an overview of the current status of carbon pricing in the EU 27 + UK, and coming policy developments such as the introduction of a UK Emissions Trading System (ETS), now that the UK has left the EU, reform of the EU ETS, and the EU’s proposal for a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, more colloquially known as a carbon border tax. He also reviews the recent developments of carbon pricing in a European context and outlines his platform for further, more detailed research on key issues identified in the conclusions of the paper.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - The Challenges and Prospects for Carbon Pricing in Europe
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[post_modified] => 2021-08-19 10:39:36
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[241] => WP_Post Object
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[post_date] => 2021-05-18 11:08:43
[post_date_gmt] => 2021-05-18 10:08:43
[post_content] => The last two years have seen growing momentum behind the global recognition of the urgency of the ‘climate emergency’, with more and more countries committing to achieve net zero emissions. There has also been a growing conviction that hydrogen will play a significant role in the decarbonisation of the energy system. Electrification will certainly be very important, with many commentators suggesting that the share of electricity in final consumption is likely to rise from typically around 20 per cent today to around 50 per cent by 2050. Even if that proves to be an underestimate, it will still leave considerable demand for low-carbon molecules, and, with current technologies, the most likely low-carbon (or preferably zero-carbon) molecule is hydrogen. A growing number of countries have now published national hydrogen strategies, and more such strategies are under development. These strategies set bold ambitions for development of hydrogen but are relatively unclear on the pathways and steps to reach those ambitions.
Low-carbon hydrogen is starting from a small base, and current costs do not support a commercial business case. For hydrogen to achieve the ambitious targets will require many players across the energy industry (private sector, government, regulators, and consumer groups) to work together to drive the required policies and behaviours. The structures to enable that collaboration will need to be developed as a matter of urgency in the next year or two. Against that background, it is very timely that this May 2021 edition of the Oxford Energy Forum is dedicated to exploring the role of hydrogen in the energy transition.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Forum - The Role of Hydrogen in the Energy Transition - Issue 127
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-forum-the-role-of-hydrogen-in-the-energy-transition-issue-127
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[242] => WP_Post Object
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[post_date] => 2021-05-14 11:40:14
[post_date_gmt] => 2021-05-14 10:40:14
[post_content] => In this podcast David Ledesma discusses with Bassam Fattouh, the Director of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies key themes emerging from the OIES Oil Monthly, a new publication launched by the Institute in February 2021. These include the distinguishing features of the current oil price cycle, the unsynchronised recovery in global oil demand, China’s increasing importance in global oil markets, and the effectiveness of OPEC+ response to the COVID-19 shock. Also discussed is US shale performance compared to previous cycles and whether it will act as a disruptive force for market balances and whether the oil market has entered into a new supercycle.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - The COVID-19 Oil Price Cycle: Distinguishing Features and Short-term Outlook
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[post_date] => 2021-05-06 10:49:00
[post_date_gmt] => 2021-05-06 09:49:00
[post_content] => In this OIES Energy Podcast, Michal Meidan and David Ledesma discuss the key messages from the China Day that was held in mid-April. The China Day consisted of five webinars discussing various aspects of the 14th Five Year Plan and the country’s recently issued 2060 carbon neutrality goal. In this conversation, Michal and David take stock of some of the overarching themes that came up across the sessions, including the role of the state and the role of markets; the central government’s plans compared to implementation on the local level; the winners and losers from the energy transition and how they are perceived domestically. The podcast also looks at some of the implications for the oil, gas and power sectors as discussed in the China Day.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - China day takeaways: How do long-term ambitions sit with short-term realities?
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[post_date] => 2021-05-05 11:36:54
[post_date_gmt] => 2021-05-05 10:36:54
[post_content] => The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly including our latest short-term oil market outlook is now available.
In this month’s featured In Focus piece, Bassam Fattouh and Andreas Economou argue that as in previous cycles, US shale will remain a key factor shaping market outcomes. The US shale response has been sharp and fast during the COVID-19 cycle and despite the recent improvement in prices, US shale output was still lower by 1.4 mb/d at the of end 2020 compared to a year earlier. A key feature of the current cycle is the longer lags between the price, rig count and US shale output. These longer lags, among other factors, imply that US shale will not disrupt oil balances in 2021, and we project output to contract by 380,000 b/d y/y. But as we enter 2022 the picture becomes more uncertain with US shale production projected to grow by 0.95 mb/d y/y but with the bands widening around our estimates. While impressive, the recovery is uneven across shale plays and by the end of 2022, production will still be below the 2019 peak.
Despite the sharp rise in COVID cases in India and elsewhere, confronted by the gradual unwinding of the OPEC+ output cuts in May/July 2021, oil prices appear well bounded in the $60/b and $70/b range throughout 2021 and 2022. In the very near-term, risks to the outlook are balanced but market uncertainties persist beyond 2021 pertaining to the supply side. The global demand recovery is moving at two speeds with the rebound in the OECD and China gaining traction, while other non-OECD are trying to cope with renewed COVID waves, severe delays in vaccinations and deeper economics impacts of the pandemic. Near-term supply is expected to increase gradually, with OPEC+ leading the rise. Despite recent headwinds, market deficits persist but the extent of the global oil demand rebound in H2 will shape market outcomes in 2021 and beyond.
[post_title] => OIES Oil Monthly - Issue 4
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[post_name] => oies-oil-monthly-issue-4
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[post_modified] => 2021-05-05 11:44:03
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[post_date] => 2021-04-28 11:11:50
[post_date_gmt] => 2021-04-28 10:11:50
[post_content] => In this OIES Energy Podcast, Anupama Sen (OIES) and Carlo Napoli (Enel Foundation) discuss with David Ledesma the key messages from their recent publication “Beyond Energy: Incentivising Decarbonization through the Circular Economy”. The authors discuss why the hitherto predominant approach to decarbonization – focusing on adding renewables in power generation and improving energy use efficiency – could be inadequate given countries’ recent, accelerated ambitions on net zero carbon targets, and how the Circular Economy can be a strong complement to existing policies in enhancing decarbonization. The authors also argue that circular economy approaches need to be implemented through strong public policy frameworks, to avoid unintended effects, and ensure that the conditions are met in order for these approaches to lead to net economic
as well as environmental benefits. Anupama and Carlo also discuss the practical barriers to the implementation of Circular Economy approaches, with David.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Beyond Energy: Incentivising Decarbonization through the Circular Economy
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[post_date] => 2021-04-20 12:39:34
[post_date_gmt] => 2021-04-20 11:39:34
[post_content] => The EU and a number of its member states have now published hydrogen strategies and Europe continues to lead the way in the decarbonisation of its gas sector. In this latest OIES Energy Podcast James Henderson talks with Martin Lambert and Simon Schulte about their latest paper entitled “Contrasting European Hydrogen Pathways” which examines the plans in six major EU countries. They discuss the outlook for various forms of hydrogen supply, contrasting the potential for green hydrogen from renewable energy with the outlook for blue hydrogen using steam-reforming of methane as well as hydrogen generated from surplus nuclear energy. They also examine the potential sources of demand, considering existing use of hydrogen in industrial processes as well as the potential for hydrogen to displace hydrocarbons in the steel and cement industries. Finally, the podcast also looks at the potential for imports of hydrogen and its distribution within Europe, while also considering some key milestones that can provide indicators of how the region’s hydrogen plans are playing out.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Hydrogen in Europe
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[post_modified] => 2021-08-19 10:41:12
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[post_date] => 2021-04-15 12:17:38
[post_date_gmt] => 2021-04-15 11:17:38
[post_content] => Over the past 12 months Ukrainian storage has provided a vital safety valve for the European gas market. In this latest OIES Energy Podcast James Henderson discusses the increasing integration of the Ukrainian gas market with Europe with Simon Pirani and Jack Sharples in the light of their latest paper for OIES entitled “Ukraine-EU gas market integration: short-term progress, long-term challenges.” Continuing liberalisation of the Ukrainian gas market and the creation of the customs warehouse for gas storage by international traders has created a foundation for future cooperation, although there have been, and will continue to be, challenges along the way. Furthermore, the question of the transit of Russian gas exports to Europe remains a key issue, with the potential for volumes to decline further once the current contract expires in 2024. Nevertheless, the podcast discusses the potential for the Ukrainian gas market to become important in a European context both as a continuing source of demand for “reverse flow” gas, as a provider of storage and potentially as a source of further interconnection with its neighbouring markets in South, Central and Eastern Europe.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Ukraine-EU gas market integration short-term progress, long-term challenges
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[post_modified] => 2021-04-15 12:17:38
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[248] => WP_Post Object
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[post_date] => 2021-04-08 11:20:16
[post_date_gmt] => 2021-04-08 10:20:16
[post_content] => The two decades between 2030 and 2050 will see a period of radical change in the global energy economy if climate targets are going to be met. An increasing number of countries are now setting net zero emissions targets, but Europe continues to lead the way with its decarbonisation plans and in this extended Oxford Energy podcast James Henderson and David Ledesma discuss the implications for the region. Although increased electrification will be fundamental to the energy transition, there is also likely to be a role for gaseous fuels, albeit in the form of biomethane and hydrogen rather than unabated methane. The key issues surround the regulation and legislation that will be needed to encourage this to occur, the changes to infrastructure that will be required and the pace of technological development. In addition, the impact on consumers needs to be considered, especially as many countries and customers are embarking on the transition from very different starting points, implying the need for a wide range of adaptation strategies and levels of investment.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - The Future of Gas in Europe, challenges to 2050
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-podcast-the-future-of-gas-in-europe-challenges-to-2050
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[249] => WP_Post Object
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[post_date] => 2021-04-07 11:55:01
[post_date_gmt] => 2021-04-07 10:55:01
[post_content] => The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly including our latest short-term oil market outlook is now available.
In this month’s featured In Focus piece, Bassam Fattouh and Andreas Economou argue that while oil market dynamics and prices have markedly improved, the degree of uncertainty surrounding the outlook remains high. Following a challenging year, OPEC+ policy choices will keep dictating market outcomes, but the recent oil price rebound does not yet signal the start of the next oil supercycle as the key triggers are still missing.
Despite the price momentum easing in recent weeks, a strong rebound in demand in H2 2021 faced with a gradual increase in production from OPEC+ are expected to sustain prices above $60/b in 2021 with the momentum gathering pace anew in H2. Our reference Brent price forecast for 2021 as a whole is now $62.1/b and for 2022 is $65.1/b. The balance of risks to our reference outlook in the very near-term has tilted to the upside and we project a market deficit in 2021 of 1.4 mb/d and a 1.1 mb/d deficit in 2022. As a result, OECD stocks are seen clearing to their 2015-2019 average faster than anticipated.
[post_title] => OIES Oil Monthly - Issue 3
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[post_date] => 2021-03-31 10:52:42
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[post_content] => The next decade is still very much a gas decade, at least in reality if not in the policies. There is a need to watch closely to see how this develops. In this podcast David Ledesma discusses with James Henderson the role of natural gas in the energy transition in Europe. In this wide-ranging interview, it is noted that whereas gas is painted as a problem by many, maybe it should also be seen as a solution. Transition away from gas creates uncertainty and concerns over security of energy supply. There is a need for more dialogue between consumers and suppliers as transitioning to cleaner fuels away from natural gas means losing channels of cooperation and dialogue. The podcast also notes that the gas markets (and the energy mix) in Central, and Eastern and Southern Europe are different from Western Europe and a different approach may be required.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - The Future of Gas in Europe, challenges to 2030
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[post_date] => 2021-03-23 12:19:49
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[post_content] => How are the Middle East oil and gas exporters dealing with the forces shaping the energy transition? Will the hydrocarbon sector continue to play a key role in the economies of the Middle East? Will oil and gas exporters struggle or thrive in a carbon-constrained world?
In this podcast, Bassam Fattouh and Ahmed Mehdi tackle these questions and offer a contrarian perspective on the pathways ahead for Middle East oil and gas exporters. They provide a snapshot into the adaptation strategies being deployed by the various Middle East hydrocarbon producers and the challenges and opportunities ahead. Both Fattouh and Mehdi argue that hydrocarbons will remain a core competitive advantage of Middle East oil and gas exporters’ economies and a critical tool for adapting to the challenges faced by the energy transition. Technological deployment, the falling costs of renewables and the growing role of gas in the global energy system provide opportunities to capture cost efficiencies, reduce emissions and build resilience. The policies and decision-making of Middle East exporters will not only have implications for oil and gas markets going forward, but for the pathway of the energy transition itself.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - The Middle East and the Geopolitics of the Energy Transition
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[post_date] => 2021-03-18 11:52:31
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[post_content] => Energy dominance - which includes increased production, reduced regulation, and enhanced energy trade - is the more assertive progeny of energy independence, a key long-time goal of US energy policy. In this podcast, David Ledesma talks to Sarah Ladislaw, Senior Vice President and Director of the Energy Security and Climate Change Program at CSIS about why Energy Dominance was so important to the Trump administration and how its interpretation could change under a Biden presidency. In this wide-ranging discussion, Sarah argues that even though the era of energy dominance may be over, the intensity of clean-energy competition is just getting started and discusses the challenges and opportunities associated the US’s decarbonisation agenda. Sarah and David also ask whether energy dominance will remain a key strategic goal and how will the wish to pursue energy trading opportunities with other countries impact on global politics?
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Lessons from a strategy of energy dominance
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[post_date] => 2021-03-10 10:38:05
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[post_content] => In this podcast David Ledesma talks to Indra Overland, Head of the Centre for Energy Research at NUPI and Vitaly Yermakov, Senior Research Fellow, OIES about their chapters in the recently published Oxford Energy Forum “The Geopolitics of Energy: Out with the old, in with the new?”.
Indra argues that the impact of the global energy transition on Russia could have great consequences for the rest of the world. While there is some awareness of the vulnerability of Russian oil and gas exports to global energy transition, there is little discussion of the fact that Russia is a major coal producer, consumer and exporter, with around 650,000 Russians working in coal-related jobs. The impact of the energy transition on the Russian economy could be large. In the podcast Indra says that China and the United States are better positioned than Russia for the global energy transition, but if it seizes the day, Russia may have advantages when it comes to exports of blue hydrogen, embedded renewable energy and critical materials for clean energy technologies.
Vitaly examines the dynamics between the world’s largest global oil producers and exporters - Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the US - arguing that each producer has its own set of strengths and weaknesses and that these will shape the future of global oil markets. Responding to the challenge of US shale, Russia and Saudi Arabia have joined forces within OPEC+. Increased pressures from the energy transition could see a Russia-Saudi alliance evolve and bring about new forms of cooperation.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Russia’s oil conundrum and its approach to Energy Transition - could it be its ‘Kodak Moment'
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[post_date] => 2021-03-04 11:43:54
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[post_content] => The learning curve – a concept that relates historically observed cost reductions to the number of units produced or cumulatively installed capacity – has been widely adopted to analyse the technological progress and adoption of renewable energy technologies such as solar and wind power. Learning curves are also used as inputs in energy system models. This increased use of learning curves underlines the need for a critical assessment of these concepts’ application. This is because flawed learning models will inevitably weaken the chances of improving our understanding of the role of technologies in achieving energy transition objectives. The choices made when estimating learning curves will result in different learning rates and lead to different analytical and policy outcomes. Applying the results of a learning curve estimation, when modelling projections can create exaggerated cost reduction effects, might create misleading results.
In this podcast David Ledesma discusses with Jonas Grafström, OIES-Saudi Aramco Fellow and Rahmatallah Poudineh, Senior Research Fellow, OIES the learning curve application in the analysis of solar and wind technologies. Jonas and Rahmat, while not falsifying the concept of learning curves, argue that their application in forecasting the future of solar and wind has limitations, at least at the country level. The learning curve relation is generally observable across wind and solar power, but cost reduction can be driven by factors not correlated with current output, implying that other factors are drivers of long-term learning effects.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - A critical assessment of learning curves for solar and wind power technologies
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[post_date] => 2021-03-03 11:54:43
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[post_content] => The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly including our latest short-term oil market outlook is now available.
In this month’s featured In Focus piece, Michal Meidan argues that although China’s oil demand seemed off to a shaky start in 2021 with new COVID infections limiting travel during the New Lunar Year, solid economic momentum, new refining starts, and new storage tanks coming online, the Year of the Ox is looking strong. Yet unlike 2020, when buying patterns were overwhelmingly driven by storage, buying cycles in 2021 will increasingly depend on refining.
Greater optimism about demand in H2 2021, Saudi Arabia’s voluntary cut of 1 million b/d for the months of February and March, coupled with the drawdown of surplus stocks have led to sharp price rises in recent months lifting the base price. Our reference forecast for Brent in 2021 has now been upgraded to $60/b and remains unchanged at $63/b in 2022. The balance of risks remains in negative territory reflecting concerns about the emergence of new COVID variants, the reimposition of mobility restrictions and the slow roll-out of vaccines, dampening demand growth prospects beyond Q1. However, the Brent prospect that takes into account the underlying uncertainty surrounding our outlook, has now converged towards the reference price, indicating that price risks are more broadly balanced and stands at $58/b in 2021 and $61.2/b in 2022. OPEC+ output policy and pandemic developments continue to dictate the market rebalancing in H1 2021, but recovery is still expected to gain pace from H2 onwards. We continue to project market deficits for both 2021 and 2022 by 1.1 mb/d.
[post_title] => OIES Oil Monthly - Issue 2
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[post_date] => 2021-02-25 11:12:22
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[post_content] => The big increase in spot Asian LNG prices in January to over $30/MMBtu has been called a ‘perfect storm’ of three factors - very cold weather in Northeast Asia, LNG supply issues at some export plants and a lack of spare LNG tanker capacity. In this Podcast David Ledesma discusses with Mike Fulwood these issues as well as other more structural factors that exacerbated the market situation. Lack of any meaningful gas storage in Asia, especially in a country like Japan, meant that the market did not have any back-up storage and the fragmented nature of the Japanese market, with few pipeline interconnections between the main cities and regions, meant gas could not be moved around the country at short notice. The depletion of gas storage levels in Europe on December a 2020, and January 2021, as LNG cargoes were diverted away from Europe to Asia, effectively meant that storage capacity in Europe actually replaces the lack of gas storage in Asia. The podcast also discusses the lack of a liquid physical trading market in Asia, compared to Europe and North America, and whether the price spike could have implications for the possible use of price benchmarks such as Platts JKM, in contracts, whether short, medium or even long-term.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Asia LNG Price Spike: Perfect Storm or Structural Failure?
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[post_date] => 2021-02-19 13:20:17
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[post_content] => China is widely expected to be one of the biggest winners of the energy transition: not only has the country got a head start in the manufacture and deployment of renewables and batteries, it is also central to the supply chains of critical minerals. Moreover, China is expected to maintain a dominant role in the ‘old’ geopolitics of fossil fuels as it is likely to remain a large consumer of oil and gas for some time. China’s state-led model, with generous financing and policy support, has helped it achieve this role. But at the same time, international concerns about the influence of the state in Chinese companies and their overseas investments could begin to hinder China’s clean tech exports. How will this impact the global energy transition? How will China’s ambition to reach carbon neutrality by 2060 change the domestic landscape for innovation, as well as China’s international climate stance? How will China’s relations with the US and the EU evolve under an accelerated energy transition alongside heightened competition for technological dominance? In this extended podcast, David Ledesma talks to Barbara Finamore and Michal Meidan about these questions, delving deeper into their contributions to the latest
Oxford Energy Forum.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - China and the geopolitics of the energy transition
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[post_date] => 2021-02-11 11:47:01
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[post_content] => The Canadian oil and gas industry has faced an increasing number of headwinds since the start of the last decade. Stagnant domestic demand coupled with limited gas export capacity and a glut of North American production has resulted in low prices and reduced profitability for natural gas firms. For oilsands operators, ongoing commodity price sluggishness has been exacerbated by tight takeaway space for Canadian crude, increased divestment by foreign firms and limited capital investment. Consequently, the carbon tax hike appears to compound these risks and cast doubt on the long-term viability of the industry as a key source of non-OPEC oil and gas supply. In this podcast, David Ledesma talks to Nnaziri Ihejirika and discusses his new OIES insight on strategic options for Canadian oil and gas firms, particularly the potential to deploy breakthrough decarbonization technologies and identify new opportunities in the business value chain. While the increased tax may cause significant strain on the ability of some firms to generate healthy cash flows in the near-term, it is likely to force the enabling environment required for new technologies to be deployed at scale. Done well, this can set the stage for a new cycle of innovation, investment and long-term prosperity.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Canada’s Carbon Tax Hike and Strategic Implications for Oil & Gas Firms
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[post_date] => 2021-02-08 11:29:58
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[post_content] => Gathering momentum for the energy transition has sparked debate on what the energy map will look like in 30 years. For more than half a century now, access to oil and natural gas has been at the heart of the geopolitics of energy; but with renewable technologies set to dominate energy supply systems, relations between states will change, while economies and societies will undergo structural transformations. This issue of the Oxford Energy Forum discusses the drivers and main features of the ‘old’ and ‘new’ geopolitics of energy. It assesses the power shifts that are unfolding, the winners and losers—both countries and technologies—that are likely to emerge from this process, and the potential implications for global governance regimes. Our authors ask whether the prospects of peak oil demand will dim the geopolitical forces shaping producer–consumer relations and upend geopolitical arrangements which have been defining elements of regional power systems. They ask: who will lead the race for new technologies and supply chains? And how will US–China competition and coordination impact global efforts to meet the Paris climate goals?
A thread running through this Forum is a warning against intellectual complacency. One key theme is that assumptions about the future geopolitical outlook of countries, regions, and trade relationships will hardly be guided by history, given the size and scope of the transformation. Demand-side policy and capital allocation shifts will create both challenges and opportunities for fossil fuel incumbents—a stark reminder that while some regions are moving more slowly, no region is standing still as the energy transition gathers pace. Similarly, identifying winners and losers is not as clear-cut as it seems, especially in light of concerns that the US is losing out in the race with the EU and China. The third theme serves as a stark reminder that the pathways to net zero will be neither linear nor uniform, especially in light of the falling costs of technologies. But the race for technological leadership and for control of the supply chains of new materials will become a key factor in the geopolitics of new energies.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Forum - The Geopolitics of Energy: Out with the Old and in with the New? - Issue 126
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[post_date] => 2021-02-04 10:55:49
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[post_content] => In this podcast David Ledesma discusses with Mike Fulwood, Senior Research Fellow at the OIES, the recovery of the gas market from the 2020 global market collapse, due to the COVID-19 pandemic and how the LNG Market could balance in 2021. Following a look back at the European gas market in 2020, the podcast discusses the prospects for gas demand in 2021 in Asia, Europe, the Middle East and North America. The supply side market correction from North American LNG cargoes enabled Europe to balance during 2020 and potentially the market could see the same in 2021, but to a lesser degree. The podcast then discusses European gas pricing trends and the longer-term implications of the high Asian spot prices in January 2021.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Recovery from COVID-19 and Balancing the LNG Market in 2021
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[post_date] => 2021-02-03 10:52:24
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[post_content] => The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) is very pleased to publish the first issue of its new Oil Monthly. The OIES Oil Monthly contains our short-term oil market outlook including oil price forecasts, the balance of risks surrounding the price forecasts, supply and demand trends and the global oil balance expanding to 2022 based on our state-of-the-art structural VAR model of the global oil market and integrated oil supply and demand forecasting models further decomposed by region, sector and liquids.
In this month’s
In Focus piece, Bassam Fattouh and Andreas Economou analyse Saudi Arabia’s latest decision to cut production and argue the decision was not political – as some have suggested – but rather based on its reading of market dynamics. The authors argue that this move offers Saudi Arabia greater flexibility in its future choices, shows its willingness to act independently when market conditions require and could potentially results in higher revenues for 2021. Rather than weaken OPEC+ cohesion, Saudi Arabia’s surprise cut could end up enhancing it in very challenging times.
[post_title] => OIES Oil Monthly - Issue 1
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[post_name] => oies-oil-monthly-issue-1
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[post_date] => 2021-01-28 10:59:05
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[post_content] => In this podcast David Ledesma discusses with Jim Henderson, Director of the Natural Gas Programme, the key messages from the recently published Quarterly Gas Review. Following a summary of the key market messages since the previous quarterly publication in October 2020 the podcast focusses on the OIES Natural Gas Programme key themes for 2021, set out in four sections 1) Global recovery from COVID (including the balancing of the LNG market in 2021) 2) Europe focused issues (gas storage levels, the outlook for Nordstream 2 and the role of coal in Europe’s energy mix) 3) Two key market themes – China and Brazil and finally 4) Energy Transition related themes a discussion on COP26 and global decarbonisation commitments, the prospects for decarbonisation legislation in the EU and the need for an independent verifiable measurement system for pipeline and LNG cargo emissions. The tenth theme asks what we should we expect from Biden’s energy and climate policy? The podcast then looks forward and asks what a likely outcome to the ten themes could be.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Quarterly Gas Review - Ten Key Themes for 2021
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[post_date] => 2021-01-21 13:36:10
[post_date_gmt] => 2021-01-21 13:36:10
[post_content] => Despite the COVID-19 shock, China is likely to be the only major economy to have expanded in 2020. The strong rebound in economic activity, bolstered mainly by infrastructure investments, has been fossil fuel intensive, supporting global oil and LNG markets. The strength of the recovery was such that the country suffered from power and gas shortages over the course of the winter that reverberated through global markets. But while from a market perspective China is on track to resuming strong, fossil-fuel heavy growth, especially in light of the leaderships renewed emphasis on supply security, President Xi’s announcement in September 2020 that the country would aim to reach carbon neutrality by 2060 suggests a change of course is in the making. How will this be reflected in the upcoming 14
th Five Year Plan that will be issued in March this year? How do the events of 2020 and the winter shortages inform the priorities for the year ahead? Michal Meidan and David Ledesma discuss some of the lessons from 2020 as well as the outlook for policies and markets in 2021.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - China: Lessons from 2020 and Outlook 2021
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[post_date] => 2021-01-20 09:52:48
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[post_content] => In this first OIES Gas Quarterly of 2021 we provide our usual review of global gas prices but more importantly highlight 10 key themes that we believe will be important in shaping the outlook for the global gas sector over the next 12 months. We provide an outlook for gas balances this year, with a focus on storage in Europe, while also analysing the prospects for gas demand and supply in China and considering the progress being made in the removal of coal from the European energy system. We also analyse the potential for Nord Stream 2 to finally be completed in 2021 and for first gas to flow. Further afield, we highlight that 2021 could be an important year for the deregulation of the gas market in Brazil, and we also consider a number of topics on the decarbonisation theme. We ask whether the imminent COP26 meeting will catalyse more concrete advances in decarbonisation in the gas sector, we consider the amount of regulation that is due to be passed in the EU to encourage action and we consider the development of carbon-neutral LNG as a new theme in the gas market. Finally, we also look at what the arrival of the new US administration under Joe Biden may mean for environmental policy and in particular for methane emissions.
[post_title] => Quarterly Gas Review - Issue 12
[post_excerpt] =>
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[post_name] => quarterly-gas-review-issue-12
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[post_modified] => 2021-02-01 10:22:16
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[ID] => 43334
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[post_date] => 2021-01-12 10:52:33
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[post_content] => In this podcast James Henderson talks with Julian Bowden about the progress of gas markets in SE Europe. After a number of years when activity towards developing regional infrastructure has been negligible, a number of factors have come together to accelerate progress. Julian discusses his recent research on the region and outlines how the arrival of an increasingly diverse range of supply options, both pipeline and LNG, is combining with new infrastructure and market reforms to open up a number of gas markets. This could have interesting implications for the European gas market as a whole as gas from the Southern Corridor and Turk Stream starts to arrive in larger volumes and as Turkey starts to play a larger role as a transit country.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - SE Europe Gas Markets
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[post_status] => publish
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[ping_status] => closed
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-podcast-se-europe-gas-markets
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[post_modified] => 2021-01-12 11:28:29
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[266] => WP_Post Object
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[ID] => 43301
[post_author] => 111
[post_date] => 2021-01-05 11:43:12
[post_date_gmt] => 2021-01-05 11:43:12
[post_content] => Since the 1980s the growth of the LNG business has been underpinned by third party finance, predominantly from international banks, under limited recourse project finance. Financings were also often backed by political risk cover from Export Credit Agencies. Under these arrangements the project itself borrowed money to fund its development enabling financially weaker shareholders to participate in the project. Key to the funding was the existence of reliable revenues from the project secured though long-term offtake contracts with creditworthy buyers. In this podcast David Ledesma discusses with Robin Baker how the LNG business is changing, changing buyer contractual requirements and asks the question - are lenders willing to loan funds based on more flexible terms?
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - LNG Finance - will lenders accommodate the changing environment?
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
[comment_status] => closed
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-podcast-lng-finance-will-lenders-accommodate-the-changing-environment
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[post_modified] => 2021-01-05 11:50:19
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[267] => WP_Post Object
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[ID] => 43283
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[post_date] => 2020-12-16 11:32:37
[post_date_gmt] => 2020-12-16 11:32:37
[post_content] => Increasing the share of renewables in the national energy mixes is a necessary step to achieve decarbonisation objectives. However, due to geographical features and seasonal fluctuations in renewable generation and energy demand, connecting renewable energy producers with a significant number of end users in time and space necessitates finding a suitable means to preserve energy in large amounts for a long time in a transportable form. In this podcast, David Ledesma talks to Rahmat Poudineh and Aliaksei Patonia on whether ammonia could potentially play the role of such means of energy storage. The podcast covers both ammonia’s advantages in comparison to other storage options as well as its specific challenges for producers and end users; and also discusses how green ammonia could be generated and transported, and what the key cost drivers for its production look like. Finally, Rahmat and Aliaksei describe what specific place green ammonia could take in the energy systems of the future.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Ammonia as a storage solution for future decarbonized energy systems
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
[comment_status] => closed
[ping_status] => closed
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-podcast-ammonia-as-a-storage-solution-for-future-decarbonized-energy-systems
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[post_modified] => 2021-08-19 10:47:46
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[ID] => 43237
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[post_date] => 2020-12-10 12:11:33
[post_date_gmt] => 2020-12-10 12:11:33
[post_content] => Pressure is mounting on the natural gas and LNG community to reduce methane emissions and this is most urgent in EU countries following the adoption of much tougher greenhouse gas reduction targets of 2030 and the publication of the European Commission’s Methane Strategy. With declining rapidly declining indigenous EU production and therefore rising import dependence, there are increasing calls for emissions from imported pipeline gas and LNG to be quantified and based on actual measurements, as opposed to standard emission factors. The Methane Strategy promises to be a significant milestone in that process. In this Podcast Professor Jonathan Stern discusses with David Ledesma that companies which are supplying (or intending to supply) natural gas to the EU – the largest global import market for pipeline gas and a very significant market for LNG - would be well advised to pay close attention to how the regulation of methane emissions is unfolding, and to make an immediate and positive response.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Methane Emissions from Natural Gas and LNG Imports an increasingly urgent issue for the future of gas in Europe
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
[comment_status] => closed
[ping_status] => closed
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-podcast-methane-emissions-from-natural-gas-and-lng-imports-an-increasingly-urgent-issue-for-the-future-of-gas-in-europe
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[post_modified] => 2021-08-19 10:49:02
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[269] => WP_Post Object
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[ID] => 43134
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[post_date] => 2020-12-01 11:11:55
[post_date_gmt] => 2020-12-01 11:11:55
[post_content] => Many have argued that the COVID-19 pandemic provides the opportunity for countries to design economic recovery plans that are distinctly green. In other words, 2020 could prove to be a critical juncture in the low-carbon energy transition. China was one of the first countries to launch an economic recovery strategy but even though it has some green features, the plan was not distinctly green. Rather, it placed significant emphasis on infrastructure and highlighted the need to enhance domestic energy security through the production of more fossil fuels. At that stage China’s low-carbon transition looked to be following a BAU path. Then, in September, President Xi pledged that China would achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. In this podcast, David Ledesma and Philip Andrews-Speed discuss the elements of change and continuity in China’s macroeconomic and energy policies, and question whether 2020 does indeed mark a critical juncture in China’s low-carbon energy transition.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Does 2020 mark a critical juncture in China’s low-carbon energy transition?
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-podcast-does-2020-mark-a-critical-juncture-in-chinas-low-carbon-energy-transition
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[post_modified] => 2020-12-01 11:11:55
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[270] => WP_Post Object
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[ID] => 43006
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[post_date] => 2020-11-26 10:45:10
[post_date_gmt] => 2020-11-26 10:45:10
[post_content] => The oil price continues to shrug off many of the downside risks and Brent remains well supported, breaking out from the $40-$45/barrel price range and recently trading above $48/barrel. This is remarkable considering the mix of bearish factors (renewed mobility restrictions and lockdowns, the return of Libyan barrels, easing of China’s imports, the potential return of Iranian barrels, uncertainty about the next move for OPEC+, the large buffers in the system) and bullish factors (positive news about the vaccines, robust Asian demand, high OPEC+ compliance). In this podcast David Ledesma discusses with Bassam Fattouh his latest paper with Andreas Economou: Oil Market Recovery and Balance of Risks. How has the oil market been faring with the renewed restrictions and lockdowns? How have refineries been coping with the uneven impact of the shock? What are the main risks from the supply side? How have oil relations between Saudi Arabia and Russia evolved since the breakup of the OPEC+ agreement in March 2020? Is OPEC+ cohesion at risk? What about the potential return of Iran production now that Biden has won the US elections? Will OPEC+ accommodate the potential return of Iranian barrels? How serious is the ‘missing barrels’ issue? What options do OPEC+ face?
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Oil Market Recovery and the Balance of Risks
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
[comment_status] => closed
[ping_status] => closed
[post_password] =>
[post_name] => oxford-energy-podcast-oil-market-recovery-and-the-balance-of-risks
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[post_modified] => 2020-11-26 10:45:10
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[271] => WP_Post Object
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[ID] => 42776
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[post_date] => 2020-11-18 11:55:20
[post_date_gmt] => 2020-11-18 11:55:20
[post_content] => In this podcast James Henderson discusses a new OIES paper on the future of the Ukrainian gas market and its interconnections with Russia and Europe with Simon Pirani. The podcast first reviews the current state of the Ukrainian gas sector following a decade of dramatic change and then assesses the outlook for further transit of Russian gas, development of the internal market and future opportunities for using the country’s storage assets. James and Simon also discuss the continuing liberalisation and deregulation of the Ukrainian gas market, as well as the prospects for domestic gas production. The overall conclusion is that Ukraine has taken very positive steps to reduce its dependence on Russian gas and gas transit revenues and continues to make progress towards fuller integration with the European gas market.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - The market takes shape: The Ukrainian gas sector to 2030
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
[comment_status] => closed
[ping_status] => closed
[post_password] =>
[post_name] => oxford-energy-podcast-the-market-takes-shape-the-ukrainian-gas-sector-to-2030
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[post_modified] => 2020-11-18 11:55:35
[post_modified_gmt] => 2020-11-18 11:55:35
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[272] => WP_Post Object
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[ID] => 42616
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[post_date] => 2020-11-12 12:01:26
[post_date_gmt] => 2020-11-12 12:01:26
[post_content] => A key element of LNG trading, the buying and selling of LNG cargoes (or strips of cargoes) on shorter term contracts of less than three years duration, is cargo optimization. LNG traders, once they have secured positions in the LNG chain, seek to ‘optimize’ their LNG position or ‘LNG book’. This optimization process is often seen, or referred to, as a ‘black box’ with companies using their portfolio of supply and sales contracts, together with shipping capacity, to maximise returns through optimizing their flows of LNG. In this podcast David Ledesma discusses with Mashal Jaffery and Peter Thompson of Baringa Partners the optimization ‘black box’, why such optimization is important to today’s LNG business model and how companies can carry it out and what approaches can be taken.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - LNG Portfolio Optimization: Challenge, Opportunity and Necessity.
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-podcast-lng-portfolio-optimization-challenge-opportunity-and-necessity
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[post_modified] => 2020-11-12 12:01:26
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[273] => WP_Post Object
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[ID] => 42454
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[post_date] => 2020-11-06 14:02:23
[post_date_gmt] => 2020-11-06 14:02:23
[post_content] => The Grand Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) gas field straddling Mauritania and Senegal’s deep offshore waters is being developed to launch the first LNG project in this subregion of Africa. Phase 1 of this project consists of a floating liquefied natural gas facility with a design LNG capacity of about 2.5 mtpa. But this initial phase of the GTA LNG project would represent only 8 percent of Mauritania and Senegal’s 30 mtpa of planned or under consideration LNG capacity. A challenging LNG development endeavour, especially under uncertain international gas market conditions. In this podcast, David Ledesma talks to Mostefa Ouki and asks if Mauritania and Senegal become Africa’s new gas province and play a future gas exporter role in the Atlantic basin and possibly beyond?
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Mauritania - Senegal: the quest for a gas exporter role
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
[comment_status] => closed
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-podcast-mauritania-senegal-the-quest-for-a-gas-exporter-role
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[post_modified] => 2020-11-06 14:02:23
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[post_date] => 2020-10-26 10:35:57
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[post_content] => In this podcast, David Ledesma talks to Malcolm Keay and David Robinson who discuss their new OIES paper on recent “glimpses” of what the future electricity system may bring, notably the rise of intermittent solar PV and wind energy as a share of total electricity generation. They reflect on these glimpses - which were visible during the early stages of COVID-19 - and propose a two-market approach that would help to address the challenge of integrating intermittent renewables, especially by encouraging flexible demand to match output from renewables. Since this approach would require fundamental change to existing markets, that might be too much to expect in the near term, they recommend experimenting with the introduction of individual elements of the two-market approach. One proposal is for governments that organize centralized auctions for renewables to use them to incentivize demand-side flexibility through supply contracts that mirror the generation contracts with renewable generators.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Glimpses of the future electricity system?
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
[comment_status] => closed
[ping_status] => closed
[post_password] =>
[post_name] => oxford-energy-podcast-glimpses-of-the-future-electricity-system
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[post_modified] => 2020-10-26 10:42:47
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[ID] => 41965
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[post_date] => 2020-10-20 11:33:01
[post_date_gmt] => 2020-10-20 10:33:01
[post_content] => In this podcast David Ledesma discusses a recent OIES Energy Insight on MENA oil exporting countries’ diversification strategy under deep uncertainty with the co-author Bassam Fattouh. They cover a range of issues including how Middle East oil exporters are coping with the double shocks of COVID-19 and low oil prices; what measures they are taking to meet the budget deficits; the factors shaping their oil policy; the long-term challenges they face given that their dependency on oil revenues remains very high; the strategies they can adopt to manage the risks associated with the energy transition; and the strategies they can adopt to increase the resilience of their energy sector in the face of potential disruption.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - MENA oil exporting countries’ diversification strategy under deep uncertainty
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
[comment_status] => closed
[ping_status] => closed
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-podcast-mena-oil-exporting-countries-diversification-strategy-under-deep-uncertainty
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[post_modified] => 2020-10-20 11:33:01
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[ID] => 41937
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[post_date] => 2020-10-19 10:23:10
[post_date_gmt] => 2020-10-19 09:23:10
[post_content] => This latest Gas Quarterly provides our regular review of price trends in the natural gas and LNG markets, and notes a significant change in the relationship between prices in North America, Europe and Asia. In the main articles we look at Russia's declining market share in Turkey as Gazprom faces increasing competition from LNG and other sources of pipeline gas, ahead of imminent contract renegotiations on import contracts. We also assess the implications of Turkey's new gas discovery offshore in the Black Sea, casting some doubt on the most optimistic expectations but nevertheless acknowledging its potential importance as the country seeks to reduce import dependency. Finally, we review the performance of Algerian exports in 2020 and question whether the country's growth targets are realistic unless Sonatrach changes its marketing strategy for exports and domestic prices are increased.
[post_title] => Quarterly Gas Review - Issue 11
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
[comment_status] => closed
[ping_status] => closed
[post_password] =>
[post_name] => oxford-energy-forum-quarterly-gas-review-issue-11
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[post_modified] => 2020-10-19 16:02:55
[post_modified_gmt] => 2020-10-19 15:02:55
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[277] => WP_Post Object
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[post_date] => 2020-10-09 11:45:53
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[post_content] => In this podcast David Ledesma discusses a new OIES paper on renewal of Turkish long-term contracts and possible market transition away from oil-linked prices with the author Gulmira Rzayeva. They cover the lack of gas market liberalisation, which resulted in absence of a supply/demand price discovery mechanism enabling it to import gas at a price reflecting true market fundamentals. They also discuss the contractual terms that Turkey wants to change and the Botas assertive position in the upcoming negotiations. They discussion also covers the position of the suppliers including Gazprom, who will inevitably give concessions in order to maintain the market share.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - The Renewal of Turkey’s Long Term Contracts: Natural gas market transition or ‘business as usual’?
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
[comment_status] => closed
[ping_status] => closed
[post_password] =>
[post_name] => oxford-energy-podcast-the-renewal-of-turkeys-long-term-contracts-natural-gas-market-transition-or-business-as-usual
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[post_modified] => 2020-10-09 11:51:05
[post_modified_gmt] => 2020-10-09 10:51:05
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[278] => WP_Post Object
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[ID] => 41483
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[post_date] => 2020-10-02 12:07:30
[post_date_gmt] => 2020-10-02 11:07:30
[post_content] => In this podcast James Henderson discusses a new OIES paper on the challenge for the EU to provide a suitable regulatory framework for its new Hydrogen Strategy with Alex Barnes and Katja Yafimava. The podcast first outlines a number of EU documents where the outlook and ambitions are discussed, before focussing on the main aims of the Hydrogen Strategy and its ultimate goal of encouraging renewable hydrogen while allowing some role for low-carbon hydrogen. The discussion addresses the financial and regulatory incentives that are being discussed to encourage investment, and also covers the prospects for infrastructure development and the rules that will need to be in place and adopted to achieve the EU goals. Finally, the question of whether the current gas regulations can be adapted to suit the development of a hydrogen market is posed, with the authors expressing the view that more radical change may be needed.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - EU Hydrogen Vision: regulatory opportunities and challenges
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
[comment_status] => closed
[ping_status] => closed
[post_password] =>
[post_name] => eu-hydrogen-vision-regulatory-opportunities-and-challenges-2
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[post_modified] => 2020-10-02 12:07:57
[post_modified_gmt] => 2020-10-02 11:07:57
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[279] => WP_Post Object
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[ID] => 41368
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[post_date] => 2020-09-28 11:58:52
[post_date_gmt] => 2020-09-28 10:58:52
[post_content] => The year 2020 is an important year for China. President Xi Jinping, in his New Year speech in January 2020, called it a year of ‘milestone significance’ as the country was set to achieve its goal of building a ‘moderately prosperous society’—which entails doubling the size of the economy from its 2010 levels and eradicating poverty. At the same time, 2020 is an important year in the policy planning process, given that it is the final year of the 13th five-year plan (FYP) and the start of the drafting process for the upcoming plan, which will span 2021–2025.
The outbreak of COVID-19 complicated this critical year. The severity of the pandemic’s economic impact has refocused the government’s attention on short-term recovery, with a view to supporting employment and the private sector. At the same time, the deteriorating international political environment and the sharp escalation in US–China tensions following the outbreak have highlighted the importance of self-sufficiency in energy and technology. As China emerges from its COVID-19 economic paralysis and gets back to work, its priorities for the next plan are still in flux. China’s policy choices matter: With Beijing emphasizing reliability and affordability, the coal lobby is arguing for more coal-fired capacity. Meanwhile, the government’s pledge to develop competitive power markets is seen as a key way to support renewables, but the state’s enduring influence in the sector could complicate the process. Ongoing efforts to liberalize the oil and gas markets, in the context of relatively low oil prices, are unleashing an army of new importers into global markets. While this may serve to diversify the sector – and ultimately erode the monopoly of state-owned importers – it also suggests a rising import dependency. These varying, and seemingly contradictory, policy priorities are now being debated in China as the government prepares its blueprint for the next five years. This edition of the Oxford Energy Forum assesses some of these policy choices, the trade-offs between competing priorities, and what they mean for the 14th FYP.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Forum - China's Energy Policies in the Wake of COVID-19 - Issue 125
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[post_date] => 2020-09-23 11:22:14
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[post_content] => In this podcast James Henderson discusses a new OIES paper on LNG demand in 10 emerging Asian countries with the main authors Mike Fulwood and Martin Lambert. They cover the key drivers for LNG demand across the region, focussing mainly on the power sector, while also looking at the impact of declining indigenous production on the need for LNG imports. They also discuss the key policy drivers that can help or hinder future gas demand and assess the impact of LNG prices on the competitive position of gas. They also consider the potential for infrastructure constraints and how these are being addressed in the various countries before providing an overall conclusion on the potential for significant demand growth over the next 20-30 years.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Emerging Asia LNG Demand
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[post_date] => 2020-09-18 12:21:35
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[post_content] => Following the sharp recovery in the oil price, the Brent price has been stuck in the narrow $40/b-$45/b range since July and despite the heightened uncertainty, volatility has been exceptionally low. What factors are driving the recent price behaviour? When will oil demand recover to its pre-virus level? What explains OPEC+ high compliance? Looking forward, what are the trade-offs that OPEC+ face? Have there been any fundamental shifts in Saudi oil policy over this cycle? Will US shale recover to its 2019 peak? When will the oil price break out from this current range? In this podcast David Ledesma talks with Bassam Fattouh about his new paper with Andreas Economou titled: After the Initial Oil Rebound: What Next for Market Fundamentals and Prices?
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - After the Initial Oil Rebound: What Next for Market Fundamentals and Prices?
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[post_date] => 2020-09-17 12:22:03
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[post_content] => China’s oil demand has almost grown by over 9 mb/d over the past two decades, accounting on average for one-third of global oil demand growth every year. Going forward, however, its oil use is expected to grow by 3–4 mb/d by 2040. Much of the new consumption is estimated to come from rising incomes and the emerging middle class, and despite the short term impact of COVID-19, this remains the trajectory for China. But our latest research suggests that consumption growth could err on the lower side of that scale, because of the importance of technological development and electrification. In this podcast, David Ledesma and Michal Meidan unpack these trends, and discuss what they mean for the short term and long term outlook for China’s oil demand.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - China’s oil demand in the wake of COVID-19
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[post_date] => 2020-09-08 12:10:25
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[post_content] => This issue of Oxford Energy Forum (OEF) is dedicated to electricity networks. Over the last decade, decarbonization, decentralization and digitalization (3D) have transformed the electricity system. Within this changing environment electricity networks are required to remain stable and secure while additionally facilitating net-zero-carbon policies. The increased level of low-carbon heating/cooling and transport along with changes in the operating environment of networks due to 3D trends mean that these companies need to transform to support decarbonization. There may be a need for further investments in grid capacity, but less so if networks have the incentives to support the decentralization paradigm in a way that reduces the costs of network reinforcement. New sources of flexibility – such as distributed generation, storage, and demand response – provide alternative solutions to both short-term congestion management and long-term capacity upgrades. From a system perspective, however, minimizing the network costs – and consequently the cost of achieving decarbonization targets – requires a higher level of strategic coordination than the current energy governance delivers. This coordination needs to occur not just between transmission and distribution networks but also between electricity and gas and other energy vectors such as heat and hydrogen. . Therefore, it is important to reassess, adjust and innovate regulation, market design as well as roles and institutions to enable electricity networks to make efficient investment and operational decisions and integrate an increasing breadth of network users.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Forum - Electricity Networks in a Net-Zero-Carbon Economy - Issue 124
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[post_date] => 2020-08-12 10:58:44
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[post_content] => In this podcast David Ledesma talks with Agnieszka Ason about her new paper on scenarios for Asian long-term LNG contracts (LNG SPAs) before and after COVID-19. The paper argues that recent market events have delivered multiple incentives for price reviews and exposed three key needs for changes to Asian LNG SPAs: (1) to abandon oil-linked pricing, (2) to increase operational flexibility, and (3) to re-examine contract adjustment mechanisms. Looking into the future, the paper submits the idea of comprehensive contract renegotiations and concludes that a transition driven by contract reviews executed by the parties, gradually recalibrating the key contractual arrangements, would be an optimal scenario for Asian LNG SPAs in the 2020s.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Scenarios for Asian long-term contracts before and after COVID-19
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[post_date] => 2020-08-05 12:51:03
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[post_content] => The oil demand shock, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, placed markets and benchmarks under considerable stress. Both the physical and financial market infrastructure were tested and stretched, but it then adapted, with physical differentials and freight rates allowing crude to flow from surplus areas to demand centres. In the process, however, WTI turned negative, the oil benchmarks in the Persian Gulf, that are supposed to value the same types of crudes, diverged, and the Shanghai futures contract overshot other benchmarks. In this podcast, David Ledesma discusses these developments with Bassam Fattouh, Adi Imsirovic, and Michal Meidan as they reflect on what these events mean for global benchmarks and their future evolution.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - The oil demand shock and benchmarks
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[post_date] => 2020-08-04 11:28:16
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[post_content] => In this OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Martin Lambert about his latest Energy Comment on the EU’s new hydrogen strategy. They review the key elements of the strategy and provide thoughts on the main goals, highlighting the challenges that will be faced in meeting hydrogen production targets, in particular via the "green hydrogen" route. They also discuss the plans for expanding the consumption of hydrogen in Europe and assess the infrastructure questions that will need to be answered if and when hydrogen takes on a greater role in the region, while noting the extensive state support that will be needed in the early years of the implementation of the strategy. Finally, they note the increasing prevalence of hydrogen strategies around the world and discuss the key role that hydrogen can play in the energy transition.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - EU Hydrogen Strategy - A case for urgent action towards implementation
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[post_date] => 2020-07-27 10:51:15
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[post_content] => The COVID-19 pandemic may be giving us glimpses of what the future of the energy sector will bring; and the glimpses keep coming as the pandemic continues with no early end in sight. There are two general themes that run through the articles in this Forum, reflecting that we are still in the middle of a global crisis. One is that uncertainty about the longer-term is even greater than usual, because we do not know how governments and consumers are going to behave in a post-COVID world. The other is the tension between short-term imperatives (financial stresses) and the longer-term need for investment and adaptation that is also unusually high. The articles in this issue reflect a wide diversity of views on the effect of COVID-19 on the energy transition, ranging from acceleration of the process to slowing it down, with some arguing that it will have little lasting impact. The professional background of the contributors helps to explain the diversity of views, with articles from different parts of the energy sector, the financial sector, NGOs, and think tanks. Nevertheless, there is a general acceptance that the energy transition was already well underway before COVID-19 and that the recovery programme could well determine the nature and the speed of the transition in different parts of the world and reinforce global trends that were already apparent. Most authors believe that stimulus measures to limit the human and economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic offer a chance to rebuild a cleaner and more sustainable world, but others are more sceptical. There also seems to be an acceptance that the pace of the energy transition will not be uniform across the globe and that weakened international cooperation reduces the chance of fast-tracking and mainstreaming the low-carbon transition globally.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Forum - COVID-19 and the Energy Transition - Issue 123
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[post_date] => 2020-07-22 11:35:08
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES Podcast James Henderson discusses the July Quarterly Gas Review with Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples. They review the impact of COVID 19 on global gas markets by examining various key indicators and also by updating our global gas model and extending the range of our forecasts to 2025. After a look at various price indicators they review four key topics. The first considers the storage situation in Europe and the impact of LNG flows. The second reviews physical flows of Russian gas, a key balancing source of gas supply in Europe, via various transit routes in the first half of 2020. The third addresses our forecasts for global gas supply and demand, with a focus on the LNG market, in the wake of the COVID 19 crisis and extends the analysis to 2025. The overall conclusion is that global gas demand can rebound to 2019 levels in 2021, but that it will be 2025 before the full impact of the COVID 19 crisis has unwound as it will take five years before our previous pre-COVID base case forecasts can be met. Finally, we return to the theme of Russian gas exports and look at Gazprom’s developing Asian plans, which were the focus of the company’s recent AGM.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Quarterly Gas Review
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[post_date] => 2020-07-10 11:01:30
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[post_content] => As China sets out its post COVID-19 recovery package, it is looking to ‘new infrastructure’ and ‘new urbanisation’ to economic growth and foster indigenous innovation. While these have long been tenets of the government’s economic rebalancing agenda, they have gained additional urgency as fears of a potential technological decoupling with the US rise. There is considerable debate whether this recovery package will be “green” or “brown”, but in any event, it is set to accelerate the electrification of the Chinese economy. But will decarbonisation also accelerate? In this podcast, Anders Hove and Michal Meidan discuss the drivers and contradictions in China’s renewables policy post COVID-19 and the importance of energy security, markets and technology.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Current direction for renewable energy in China
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[post_date] => 2020-07-01 14:11:00
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[post_content] => This issue of the Oxford Energy Forum follows on from OIES’s third transport workshop, held in Oxford in late 2019. The workshop focused on three factors that are likely to influence the uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) in the transport fleet: government policy incentives, consumer choice, and the need for consumer-centric business models. EVs are still a nascent technology and rely heavily on government incentives. Governments have a range of instruments at their disposal, from subsidizing EVs to taxing or banning internal-combustion-engine vehicles (ICEVs). These policies are not equivalent in terms of effectiveness, efficiency, and public acceptability. For instance, consumers may prefer subsidies on EVs to taxes on ICEVs, but subsidies are inefficient. Similarly, bans on ICEVs may be effective, but may not be publicly acceptable if they limit consumer choice. This suggests that government incentives and policies to encourage EV uptake need to be designed with careful consideration of the possible trade-offs between efficiency, effectiveness, and consumer preferences. Meanwhile, consumer choices take into account not only government incentives but also their own preferences (e.g. for shared mobility or car ownership) and constraints (e.g. budgets). Understanding the determinants of consumer choice is therefore crucial to avoiding misalignments between the design of government incentives and consumer preferences. To be viable, transportation-sector business models need to be consumer-centric – in other words, built around a deep understanding of customers’ needs, preferences, and values and the contribution that each of these makes to the company’s profitability. The eight articles in this issue debate different aspects of these fundamental trade-offs and their policy implications. The articles in this issue debate different aspects of these fundamental trade-offs and their policy implications.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Forum - EV Uptake in the Transport Fleet: Consumer Choice, Policy Incentives and Consumer-Centric Business Models - Issue 122
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[post_date] => 2020-06-26 11:20:27
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[post_content] => Over the last three decades several studies were conducted on the elusive development of regional or sub-regional natural gas networks to boost natural gas exchanges within the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. However, due to commercial and non-commercial factors, this regional or sub-regional trade remains quite limited. In this podcast David Ledesma interviews Mostefa Ouki, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute, to discuss whether the current global multiple crisis situation (collapse of oil and gas prices and Covid-19 pandemic) could result in an improvement of intra-MENA gas trade.
The podcast focuses on the following five key aspects that affect this trade: resilience or non-resilience of MENA’s natural gas demand to the adverse impact of this multiple crisis environment; main sources of gas supply within the MENA region that could drive a potential gas trade expansion; current gas export prices and prevailing domestic natural gas prices in MENA markets; availability of regional gas import infrastructure; and, finally, it considers whether there is enough political will to overcome political tensions and rivalries in the MENA region to allow for improved intra-MENA gas trade.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Is there hope for improved intra-MENA gas trade?
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[post_date] => 2020-06-25 10:32:31
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[post_content] => In this podcast James Henderson talks with Alex Barnes about his new paper which questions whether the current regulatory structure for energy markets in Europe is suitable to cope with the ever more urgent need to meet decarbonisation objectives. It discusses the evolution of the regulation of gas markets in Europe to date, before addressing the new EU decarbonisation goals and the implications they have for gas. James and Alex then debate whether the current regulations provide a level playing field for gas as it seeks to decarbonise, and discuss what key fundamental changes may need to be made to provide suitable incentives for the development of new technologies in the gas sector. Finally, they talk about the actions that are currently being taken by companies to create a unified stance across the gas industry and outline a timetable for key regulatory actions that are required in the next few years if long-term decarbonisation targets are to be met.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Can the current EU regulatory framework deliver decarbonisation of gas?
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[293] => WP_Post Object
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[post_date] => 2020-06-24 10:55:05
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[post_content] => European gas prices have crashed below $2/MMBtu this summer. Storage in Europe, which has played a crucial role in absorbing excess LNG, could be full in August. The moment of truth will then have arrived for the global gas market and, unless more supply is shut in, prices could turn negative. The forward curve suggests a doubling of TTF prices in summer 2021 over 2020, which may only happen if LNG flows to Europe are significantly reduced in 2021. This would require a big rebound in Asia LNG demand of the order of 20 per cent year on year. In the absence of this, prices in Europe, and in Asia, may stay at stubbornly low levels through 2021, prompting more LNG shut-ins.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - $2 Gas in Europe (Part III): Down, Down, Deeper and Down
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[post_date] => 2020-06-12 10:12:01
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[post_content] => In this latest podcast David Ledesma interviews James Henderson about his latest book on the Russian gas industry entitled "The Globalisation of Russian Gas: Political and Commercial Catalysts". Their wide-ranging discussion encompasses changes in the domestic Russian market which are staring to have an impact on Russia's export strategy, the current state of Gazprom's export business in Europe and its political consequences, and the emergence of new markets for Russian gas. In particular this means Asia, where a new Gazprom pipeline has started to export gas to China but where LNG is also playing a key role. In light of this change, the podcast addresses the issue of competition between Russian actors in the export market and assesses the likelihood that Russia's gas export strategy has now developed two main strands, a pipeline business led by Gazprom and an LNG business led by Novatek. The commercial, and potential political, consequences of this may be profound and the podcast explores their potential impact on the global as market.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - The Globalisation of Russian Gas: Political and Commercial Catalysts
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[post_date] => 2020-06-10 11:20:38
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[post_content] => In this podcast James Henderson talks with Vitaly Yermakov about his new paper on the Russia-Poland gas relationship and its changing dynamics. It discusses the evolution of the Russia-Poland gas relationship, identifies the problems that have emerged, and assesses the opportunities and the risks for both sides stemming from the end of the long-term transit and supply contracts. It also examines how new Russian pipelines and the changes in flows of Russian gas to Europe are likely to impact the transit of Russian gas via Poland and what this means for Poland’s energy security.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Russia-Poland gas relationship
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-podcast-russia-poland-gas-relationship
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[ID] => 38276
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[post_date] => 2020-06-03 10:57:47
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[post_content] => In this OIES podcast David Ledesma interviews Patrick Heather about his analysis of European traded gas hubs in 2019, according to his five Key Elements and also introduces a global churn comparison between Henry Hub, TTF, NBP and JKM. The podcast highlights how TTF has seen phenomenal growth in the last three years, in every metric, and that TTF is the European hub that has the greatest number of market participants, trades the widest range of products over the entire curve and has by far the highest churn rate. At a global level, TTF and NBP are important benchmarks in their own market areas but they are also benchmark hubs for their regions and for the pricing of LNG cargoes.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - European Traded Gas Hubs: the supremacy of TTF
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[post_status] => publish
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[297] => WP_Post Object
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[ID] => 38065
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[post_date] => 2020-05-26 13:11:26
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[post_content] => In this OIES podcast James Henderson discusses the availability of Ukrainian gas storage for the European market with Simon Pirani and Jack Sharples, the joint authors of a new OIES paper on this important topic. With European storage capacity likely to hit its ceiling during the summer, the option to move gas into Ukraine’s huge storage reservoirs is becoming a vital issue, and this podcast addresses the questions of how much storage is available, how it can be accessed and how physical storage is being supplemented by backhaul, or virtual reverse, import capacity. The discussion also addresses the potential for further integration of the Ukrainian and European gas markets and possible Russian reactions to this.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - European gas storage: backhaul helps open Ukrainian safety valve
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[ID] => 37961
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[post_date] => 2020-05-22 11:00:43
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[post_content] => In this podcast, David Ledesma discusses the prospects for Central Asian natural gas production and exports in the 2020s with Simon Pirani, Senior Research Fellow at OIES, who has just published a research paper on this subject. Central Asian exports to China were 47 bcm in 2018, compared with 16 bcm to Russia. Exports to China are down this year due to Covid-19 but will remain the main focus for the Central Asian producers, Pirani argues; the 55 bcm Central Asia-China pipeline, the largest such corridor constructed in recent decades, may be expanded to carry 85 bcm. China's relationship with Turkmenistan is an issue to watch. Greater inward investment, mostly by Asian companies; expanding petrochemicals capacity; and, in Kazakhstan, trade-offs between producing gas and reinjecting it to boost oil output, are other factors that will shape the sector in this decade.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Central Asian Gas
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-podcast-central-asian-gas
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[post_modified] => 2020-05-22 11:00:43
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[299] => WP_Post Object
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[ID] => 37879
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[post_date] => 2020-05-19 12:55:33
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[post_content] => In this podcast David Ledesma discusses with James Henderson, Jonathan Stern and Mike Fulwood the OIES’s latest Quarterly Report on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the consequent global economic crisis on the global gas market. They examine the link between gas demand and GDP overall, before discussing the immediate impact of the crisis on gas consumption in various key regions, including Europe, China, India and the US. Then discuss the consequences for gas supply and trade, in particular highlighting the increased flows of LNG to Europe and its impact on storage levels. Concluding that if current trends continue, storage in Europe could be full by mid-summer, potentially catalysing a further decline in prices or the need for supply shut-ins. Finally they look at the potential longer-term consequences for the gas sector, asking eight critical questions about its role in the future global energy economy.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Impact of COVID-19 on Global Gas Markets
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-podcast-impact-of-covid-19-on-global-gas-markets
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[post_modified] => 2020-05-19 12:55:33
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[post_date] => 2020-05-15 11:54:35
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[post_content] => In this podcast Bassam Fattouh and Adi Imsirovic discuss with David Ledesma the effects of the demand shock on oil benchmarks. The sharp contraction in demand has stressed the oil markets to the core causing massive oversupply which has quickly overwhelmed available storage. These have exposed the weaknesses in some benchmarks and the widened divide between physical and financial oil markets. In this podcast, they discuss the negative WTI prices witnessed on 20 April, and the difference of well over $6 in the price assessment for the same crude (Oman) and the heavy lifting done by Dated Brent and quality differentials. Concluding that, in spite of this, markets have worked reasonably well and as intended.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Oil Benchmarks Under Stress
[post_excerpt] =>
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[post_name] => oil-benchmarks-under-stress-2
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[post_modified] => 2020-05-18 06:36:05
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[post_date] => 2020-05-14 12:27:30
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[post_content] => Decarbonisation of oil and gas – is it still a relevant topic when the business environment is changing so quickly, oil and gas companies are focusing on how to survive yet another extreme price cycle and governments all over the world grapple with one of the most severe economic crises? Nevertheless, the issue of transition and decarbonisation will remain dominant, driven by environmental concerns, changes in public perceptions, investors’ attitudes, energy and climate policy, and the development of new technologies. But looking at the business environment today, in a world where cost cutting is rife, and many companies are in “hibernation mode”, the key question is how can companies afford investment in decarbonization and exactly which solutions could be most efficient?
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Decarbonisation Pathways for Oil and Gas
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[post_date] => 2020-05-04 12:55:04
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[post_content] => In this podcast, David Ledesma talks to Michal Meidan, Director of the China Energy Research Programme at the Institute, following the publication of her OIES Comment, “China’s rocky road to recovery”, which looks at China’s oil demand growth this year. The podcast also addresses some emerging trends in China’s natural gas market and discusses the outlook for macroeconomic and energy policies as China gradually gets back to work. David and Michal discuss the impact of low oil and gas prices as well as market liberalisation on demand, and question whether China will be able to absorb the excess global oil and LNG as it recovers from COVID-19.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - China's rocky road to recovery
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[post_name] => chinas-rocky-road-to-recovery-2
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[post_date] => 2020-05-01 10:13:37
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[post_content] => In this podcast, David Ledesma talks to Anupama Sen, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute, to discuss her recently published OIES Comment, “A Double Edged Sword for India’s Energy Sector?”, which looks at the implications of the coronavirus pandemic for India’s energy sector. Like several countries before it, on 25 March India’s 1.3 billion population went into a 21-day lockdown, now extended to 3 May, enforced by its government in order to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus. The author argues that the net impact on India’s
energy sector is likely to be shaped by three factors: government support measures to mitigate the economic fallout of the pandemic; the level of international oil prices – which could constrain or contribute to fiscal space; and, the global economic impact of the pandemic and its effect on the competitiveness of India’s energy sector.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - A double-edged sword for India's energy sector?
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[post_date] => 2020-04-27 10:30:55
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[post_content] => Electricity consumers are critical to the success of decarbonization. The decisions they make - behind their electricity meters - could fundamentally change the energy sector. In this Podcast, David Ledesma discusses with David Robinson, Senior Research Fellow at the OIES, how ‘behind the meter’ generation will be important to the decarbonisation of the electricity sector. In the past, most consumers were passive; they had no control over how electricity was generated and supplied; and they had no option but to pay for electricity supplied by the system. Now, consumers have the potential to become active in the management of their electricity supplies, for instance by generating electricity with rooftop solar, storing electricity in batteries and buying flexible electrical equipment that operates when renewable energy is available. They also have the potential to decarbonize their own energy consumption by investing in electric heat pumps to replace oil and gas boilers and in electric vehicles to replace vehicles running on gasoline and diesel. Apart from contributing to decarbonization and lowering their own costs, active consumers can provide flexibility services to the power system and thereby facilitate the penetration of intermittent renewables. However, for all these good things to occur, the economic signals consumers receive behind the meter have to be efficient. Unfortunately, price signals in many countries are inefficient or non-existent; this is likely to slow decarbonization and unnecessarily raise costs. This paper emphasizes the importance of encouraging only efficient consumer decisions, especially for investment and use of resources behind the meter. It focuses on eliminating existing price (fiscal and regulatory) distortions in certain liberalized electricity markets in the European Union (EU) and on creating or changing markets to reflect new economic and technological conditions.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Prices behind the meter: efficient economic signals to support decarbonization
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[post_date] => 2020-04-16 12:16:40
[post_date_gmt] => 2020-04-16 11:16:40
[post_content] => In this OIES podcast James Henderson discusses the impact of the OPEC+ meeting and the Covid-19 pandemic on global oil markets with Bassam Fattouh and Vitaly Yermakov. The discussion covers the fundamental supply and demand balance in the oil market, assessing the huge demand shock caused by the lock-down in many major economies and also the supply impact of Saudi and Russian production strategy over the past month. Bassam provides his views on the initial Saudi decision to increase production since March but then to agree to a huge production cut in April, while Vitaly discusses Russian thinking on the global oil market and why the country feels in a strong position to survive a lengthy downturn in the oil price. In addition, the podcast addresses the impact of recent US intervention in the oil supply discussions, and debates whether this has fundamentally changed the nature of oil market management.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - The impact of the OPEC+ meeting and the Covid-19 pandemic on global oil markets
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[post_date] => 2020-04-14 11:18:02
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[post_content] => This podcast is a discussion between David Ledesma and James Henderson on the key conclusions from the recent Natural Gas Research Programme’s Spring Sponsors' meeting, which was held as a series of 7 webinars over two days in early April. The key topics discussed included: the short-term gas market outlook and the potential for storage in Europe to be full by mid-summer; the prospects for the oil market amid the current collapse in demand and the end of the OPEC+ agreement; the potential for a hydrogen economy and how this might be implemented, in particular focusing on blue hydrogen as a facilitator of green hydrogen development; gas markets in South East Europe and the impact of Turk Stream; the competition between coal and gas in Asia and the requirements for gas demand growth in the region; the issue of methane emissions in the oil and gas industry and how they can be mitigated; and finally the question of Russia's gas export strategy, focusing particularly on future export routes via Ukraine, Nord Stream and the Yamal Europe pipeline. The podcast covers the main points from each of the discussions and highlights research that OIES is continuing to work on in each area.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Short-term weakness, long-term uncertainties - Key messages from the OIES Gas Research Programme's Spring Sponsors' Meeting
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[post_date] => 2020-03-27 11:57:38
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[post_content] => The contraction in oil demand due to the spread of COVID-2019 and dissolution of the OPEC+ agreement in March have combined to generate shockwaves through the energy and financial markets. As governments all over the world grapple with one of the most severe economic crisis since the Global Financial Crisis and as the oil and gas industry is focusing on how to survive yet another extreme price cycle, some are of the view that climate change issues and decarbonization efforts will reduce in importance and may even fall off the agenda of some companies. However, energy companies have a long-term horizon, their investments extend for multiple decades and the projects planned and delivered today will go through many cycles. Over these cycles, energy companies should not be distracted from the structural trends shaping the industry. The issue of transition and decarbonization will remain dominant, driven by environmental concerns, changes in public perceptions, investors’ attitudes, energy and climate policy, and the development of new technologies. In fact, one could argue that the current instability witnessed in oil markets and its underlying causes may render the oil and gas sector less attractive to investors and reinforce calls for an even faster transition from hydrocarbons. This issue of the
Forum is focused on the potential for transformations in the oil and gas industry during the energy transition and its dramatic decarbonization.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Forum - Decarbonization Pathways for Oil and Gas - Issue 121
[post_excerpt] =>
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-forum-decarbonization-pathways-for-oil-and-gas-issue-121
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[post_date] => 2020-03-19 12:09:31
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[post_content] => In this podcast, David Ledesma interviews Michal Meidan, director of the China Energy Research Programme about the key takeaways from the programme's inaugural 'China Day' workshop on 'Geopolitical shifts and China's energy policy priorities'. The workshop brings together programme sponsors alongside a number of experts to discuss some of the key trends in China and their implications for energy policies and markets. Initially, discussions were planned to revolve around the policy priorities for the final year of the 13th Five Year plan and drafting for the next plan, including questions such as environmental policies, reform and liberalisation and to what extent US-China trade tensions would alter these priorities. The outbreak of COVID-19 changed both attendance and the focus of the day, as markets grapple with the uncertainty surrounding the global response to COVID-19. Yet, as this podcast relays, the discussions touched equally on the short-term challenges associated with COVID-19 and on the medium-term policy priorities for China's energy policy and markets.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Geopolitical shifts and China's energy policy priorities
[post_excerpt] =>
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[post_name] => geopolitical-shifts-and-chinas-energy-policy-priorities-2
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[post_modified] => 2020-05-18 06:39:11
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[309] => WP_Post Object
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[post_date] => 2020-03-16 15:38:04
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[post_content] =>
In early February 2020, China's largest LNG importer invoked force majeure on cargoes. A month later, PetroChina followed suit, issuing force majeure notices on LNG and pipeline deliveries. The fall in domestic demand and logistical challenges at ports due to the COVID-19 response promoted the notices, weighing on an LNG market that is already struggling with weak demand and growing supplies. In this podcast, David Ledesma, Agniezska Ason and Michal Meidan discuss force majeure clauses in LNG sales and purchase agreements; why Chinese buyers opted to invoke them and what they mean for contract renegotiations going forward.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Force majeure notices from Chinese LNG buyers: prelude to a renegotiation?
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[post_date] => 2020-03-05 12:44:23
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[post_content] => In this podcast, David Ledesma interviews Professor Jonathan Stern founder of the Natural Gas Research Programme at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and a Distinguished Research Fellow, to discuss his recent paper “Challenges to the Future of LNG: decarbonisation, affordability and profitability”, published in October 2019. Natural gas combusted along the LNG value chain equates to 11-13 per cent of the gas produced at the wellhead, which means that LNG has significantly higher emissions than a typical pipeline gas value chain. In order to meet COP21 targets, unabated gas demand in Europe will need to decline in the 2030s (at the latest), while in other regions decline may be delayed until the 2040s. Projects currently taking FID and starting operations around 2024-25, may not have recovered their costs prior to anticipated European demand decline, but should have done so prior to more general global decline. Nevertheless, tightening emissions standards should be very much on the radar of new project developers. The LNG community needs to replace an ‘advocacy’ message, based on the generality of emissions from the combustion of natural gas being lower than other fossil fuels, with certified data on carbon and methane emission data from specific value chains, based on transparent methodologies.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Challenges to the Future of LNG: decarbonisation, affordability and profitability
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[post_date] => 2020-02-24 12:26:30
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[post_content] => This issue of the Forum looks at the medium-term oil supply outlook in the Middle East and North Africa. Middle East and North Africa (MENA) oil producers are expected to increase oil production capacity by 5.7 per cent over the next five years (up to 2025), to 33.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) from the current 31.7 mb/d, this Forum’s survey of regional producers’ upstream planning shows. All growth estimates are predicated on political and fiscal stability and current expansion plans by governments and international oil companies (IOCs) and are therefore subject to change and potential underperformance. But a realistic best-case scenario for the selected countries shows capacity growth led by the UAE, itself able to deliver 0.6 mb/d of growth over the outlook period, while Libya and Kuwait increase by 0.5 mb/d and Iraq by 0.3 mb/d. The growth more than offsets modest capacity declines for some of the smaller regional producers, especially where those countries have chosen to switch their focus away from sustaining crude oil output in favour of gas and unconventional hydrocarbons development. Of course, the impact of sanctions, years of underinvestment due to civil war, poor sectoral management and (where applicable) present and future OPEC production policies will all continue to weigh heavily on growth prospects. The highest potential growth country, Iraq, is characterized by high security and political risk and it is for that reason that it is not the leading growth prospect. This conservative forecast still acknowledges that Baghdad has been able to successfully expand its upstream sector, despite the political tensions between regions and the federal government, and despite years of civil war in the north of the country. In the same way, Libya’s civil war has for periods disrupted the recovery of the oil sector and forced the suspension of oilfield operations and exports. But these interruptions have been the exception rather than the rule and, in a best-case scenario, Libya’s National Oil Corporation should be able to continue to expand production from existing fields over the medium term, restoring pre-2011 capacity levels.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Forum - Medium-term Oil Supply Outlook in the Middle East and North Africa - Issue 120
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[post_date] => 2020-02-14 10:10:57
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[post_content] => In this podcast, Michal Meidan, director of the China Energy Research Programme at OIES discusses the implications of the coronavirus outbreak for China’s oil, gas and chemicals demand, based on two recent publications. While there are still numerous uncertainties regarding the coronavirus outbreak and therefore its impact on energy demand, the travel restrictions and quarantines introduced by the Chinese government to limit the spread of the epidemic have brought the Chinese economy to a virtual standstill. This is inevitably weighing on demand for oil, gas and petrochemicals while also altering trade flows and disrupting supply chains globally. In this podcast we offer a preliminary assessment of the impact and discuss the prospects of a strong stimulus once the outbreak is contained.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - When China sneezes...
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[post_name] => when-china-sneezes-2
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[post_modified] => 2020-05-18 06:40:32
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[313] => WP_Post Object
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[post_date] => 2020-02-12 10:53:15
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[post_content] => In this podcast, David Ledesma talks with Peter Findlay, OIES Research Associate, about what makes Canada competitive and uncompetitive for further LNG development.
In the first half of the past decade, Canada was a hotspot for LNG proponents — over 20 liquefaction projects were proposed, primarily off Canada’s West Coast in the province of British Columbia. Supermajors, world-scale North American midstream operators, Asian national oil companies, and Asian consumers had boots on the ground developing integrated projects.
Since that time, investor interest in Canadian projects has waned and only the 13 mtpa LNG Canada plant has been sanctioned, impressively overcoming all the hurdles in Fall 2018; the project includes a yet unsanctioned 13 mtpa expansion option. Other projects faltered and shuttered due to concerns about escalating costs in remote areas, regulatory uncertainty, activist fervor, and tepid government support. Chevron just recently announced their intention to leave their Kitimat LNG project. Meanwhile, despite starting from behind with a generally higher cost of feedgas and much greater shipping distances to Asia, the US Gulf Coast has attracted a deluge of sanctioned (and ready to be sanctioned) LNG investment.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Canadian LNG Competitiveness
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[post_name] => canadian-lng-competitiveness-2
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[post_modified] => 2020-05-18 06:40:58
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[post_date] => 2020-01-08 11:21:38
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast David Ledesma discusses the challenges of scaling up renewable gas in Europe with Martin Lambert, who recently co-authored a paper on the subject with Gbemi Oluleye from the Sustainable Gas Institute (SGI) at Imperial College, London. Recent reports have made very ambitious claims of the volume of low- and zero-carbon gas production which could be supplying Europe in 2050, and equally ambitious claims about the extent of cost reductions over the same time period. OIES and SGI compiled a database to track projects which are either in operation or proposed which could contribute to that scale-up pathway, and compared those actual projects with the pathways which would be required to achieve the ambitious targets. While it is too early to be definitive, early signs are not encouraging. Drawing comparisons with the impressive growth of wind and solar power generation and the associated reduction in costs over the past 15 years, renewable gas would need to follow a similar pathway if it is to achieve its targets. OIES and SGI intend to continue to track progress in the next few years to continue the assessment.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - A mountain to climb: Scaling Up Renewable Gas in Europe
[post_excerpt] =>
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[post_name] => a-mountain-to-climb-scaling-up-renewable-gas-in-europe
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[post_modified] => 2020-05-18 06:41:32
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[315] => WP_Post Object
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[ID] => 33787
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[post_date] => 2019-12-16 13:36:29
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[post_content] => China’s economic growth is slowing due to domestic efforts to curb financial risk and the escalating trade war with the US. Still, energy demand continues to rise and according to China’s largest state-owned oil and gas company, it is unlikely to peak before the mid-2030s. Even if the country’s economic growth moderates over that period, the imperative for Beijing remains to industrialise and urbanise, while also delivering blue skies to its population. How will China meet its ambitious goals of delivering economic growth as well as environmental sustainability? How big of a role will natural gas play in China’s energy transition? How does it view the role of coal and renewables in its energy mix? Has the outlook for energy demand and import dependence changed following the US-China trade war? In this Podcast, David Ledesma and Director of the OIES China Energy Research Programme, Dr Michal Meidan, discuss some of the key trends and challenges China faces.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - How will China meet its ambitious goals of delivering economic growth as well as environmental sustainability?
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[post_name] => how-will-china-meet-its-ambitious-goals-of-delivering-economic-growth-as-well-as-environmental-sustainability
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[post_date] => 2019-11-25 11:38:29
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast David Ledesma discusses the prospects for the Russian LNG industry with James Henderson, who recently co-authored a paper on the subject with Vitaly Yermakov. Following the successful launch of the Yamal LNG project the Russian government has great plans for the further development of the country’s LNG sector, led primarily by Novatek but also including projects operated by Gazprom and Rosneft. We discuss the chances of rapid expansion being achieved, the challenges that will be faced and the potential for Russia to become one of the “Big Four” LNG exporters by the end of the next decade. We also consider the implications for Russia’s overall gas export strategy as well as the geo-political significance of the opening of the Arctic region.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Russian LNG: Becoming a Global Force
[post_excerpt] =>
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[post_name] => russian-lng-becoming-a-global-force-2
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[post_modified] => 2020-05-18 06:42:34
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[post_date] => 2019-11-11 11:51:16
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[post_content] => The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) Electricity Programme held its third Annual Electricity Day on 14 June 2019 at St Catherine’s College, Oxford, for OIES Electricity Programme Sponsors and invited guests. The context for the day was the central role of the electricity sector in the decarbonization of an economy, its links with the other elements (e.g. energy vectors, regulation, infrastructure, and institutions) within a ‘whole energy system’, and whether there are opportunities that the adoption of a holistic approach could bring towards efforts to decarbonize the economy through utilizing synergies and flexibilities across the entire energy system.
The day was organized around three key questions, addressed over three sessions:
- What benefits, if any, can ‘integrated’ or ‘whole system’ thinking bring to our approach to particular energy issues, such as the decarbonization of difficult sectors such as heat?
- What roles do different modes of storage and different technologies play in realising an integrated, whole system approach to decarbonization?
- What are the key policy and commercial challenges of a whole systems approach?
Short presentations to introduce the issues in each session were followed by focused discussion and debate. This document summarizes some of the main messages from the day, organized by session.
[post_title] => An Integrated Energy Systems Approach to Decarbonization Policy: Is it the way forward?
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[post_name] => an-integrated-energy-systems-approach-to-decarbonization-policy-is-it-the-way-forward
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[post_modified] => 2019-11-11 12:06:39
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[post_date] => 2019-11-08 10:47:02
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[post_content] => In this podcast David Ledesma speaks with veteran energy journalist Karel Beckman, who writes a weekly column on gas transitions for Natural Gas World, about one of the most surprising turnarounds in modern energy history: the decision by the Dutch government to phase out the production of gas within the next few years and consumption by 2050. For sixty years, Dutch households, industry and agriculture relied heavily on domestically produced gas, and Dutch gas exports served as the backbone of the North West European gas system. Government revenues from gas over this period totalled some €417 billion. Karel Beckman explains why the Netherlands are saying goodbye to their gas riches, leaving some 500 bcm in the ground as an enormous stranded asset and what the implications are for the European gas market. He also discusses the lessons that may be drawn from the Dutch “Energiewende” by other countries. Karel’s article “The great Dutch gas transition” can be found
here.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - The great Dutch gas transition
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[post_name] => the-great-dutch-gas-transition-2
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[post_modified] => 2020-05-18 06:43:04
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[319] => WP_Post Object
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[post_date] => 2019-10-30 13:48:37
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[post_content] => In this podcast, David Ledesma discusses with Mike Fulwood, Senior Research Fellow at the OIES, the short- medium- and long-term outlook for LNG. Imports into Europe surged from late 2018 as supply increased and Asian demand growth stalled. The oversupply looks set to continue through to early 2021 before the market tightens again as export capacity growth slows. However, the recent FIDs on new export projects – five this year with likely more to come in early 2020 – suggests a significant oversupply in the mid-2020s, despite continuing demand growth in Asian markets especially in China. The start-up of the Power of Siberia pipeline from Russia into Northern China will take some of the edge off potential LNG import growth. Longer-term under a Partial Transition scenario, total global gas demand could level off at some 5.4 tcm in the 2040s compared to just under 4 tcm currently. Also discussed is a Rapid Decarbonisation scenario, which includes, at least in some countries, a big role for gas producing hydrogen where CCS can be used.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Short- medium- and long-term outlook for LNG
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
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[post_name] => short-medium-and-long-term-outlook-for-lng
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[post_modified] => 2020-05-18 06:43:38
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[post_date] => 2019-09-30 12:29:41
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[post_content] => The decline in indigenous gas production in Europe is an important issue as the region struggles to address its security of supply issues. Understanding the future of gas output is therefore of critical importance. In this podcast, Marshall Hall discusses with David Ledesma an assessment of the resources still available in UKCS waters and the economics of their production as well as the regulatory issues and government policy that could promote increased output in the future. Marshall also discusses the future of UK gas production and provides important context for the assessment of the UK’s offshore gas potential.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Gas Production from the UK Continental Shelf: An Assessment of Resources, Economics and Regulatory Reform
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
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[post_name] => gas-production-from-the-uk-continental-shelf-an-assessment-of-resources-economics-and-regulatory-reform-2
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[post_modified] => 2020-05-18 06:44:14
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[post_date] => 2019-09-16 09:16:53
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[post_content] => The September 2019 issue of the Oxford Energy Forum looks at the uncertainties facing the LNG sector as it transitions from its traditional rigid structure to becoming a fully traded commodity. This change is happening during a period of considerable volume growth in the industry, with LNG supply expected to double between 2016 and 2020. In four sections, the publication examines the uncertainties facing LNG demand and supply, how LNG pricing structures are evolving and the growth in LNG trading, before discussing LNG shipping, plant costs and the evolution of floating liquefaction. Through twelve articles, this issue has a common theme running through it - one of uncertainty, be it over the level of demand or supply, or the pace of technological advancement along the value chain, and examines potential outcomes and where the LNG transition could end up.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Forum - LNG in Transition: from uncertainty to uncertainty - Issue 119
[post_excerpt] =>
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-forum-lng-in-transition-from-uncertainty-to-uncertainty-issue-119
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[post_modified] => 2019-09-16 12:16:24
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[322] => WP_Post Object
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[post_date] => 2019-09-03 12:37:56
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[post_content] => Over the next decade and up to 2030, the largest increase in natural gas supply and demand, after China, is projected to take place in the Gulf. This will be very important regionally and globally. In this podcast David Ledesma interviews Mostefa Ouki, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute, to discuss the main drivers of this significant gas supply and demand growth; the internal and external challenges it poses; and, the implications for future regional and global gas balance developments.
The podcast highlights also the adverse impact of subsidized domestic gas prices on the sustainable development of new sources of gas supplies; it also reviews the degree of progress made in implementing price reforms and the phasing out of subsidies. A focus on the impact of Gulf politics and an increasing LNG import capacity in the Gulf shows that prospects for the expansion of intra-Gulf gas trade remain extremely limited. Efforts towards an energy transition with a diversified energy mix have already been initiated and are progressing in some key Gulf countries. In the future, the Gulf’s energy scene is unlikely to continue to be largely dominated by natural gas. However, gas will account for a relatively large share of the Gulf’s evolving energy mix.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - The Future of Gas in the Gulf: Continuity and Change
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
[comment_status] => closed
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[post_password] =>
[post_name] => the-future-of-gas-in-the-gulf-continuity-and-change
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[post_modified] => 2020-05-18 06:44:45
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[post_date] => 2019-07-22 11:50:51
[post_date_gmt] => 2019-07-22 10:50:51
[post_content] => The current issue of the
Oxford Energy Forum focuses on economic diversification in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Economic logic favours specialization over diversification — with MENA oil-exporters’ comparative advantage in hydrocarbons, why should they diversify their economies? And how: in the context of the value chain of the oil sector, or through a different strategy? Uncertain prospects for oil demand particularly due to climate change mitigation give the debate a renewed urgency. In this Podcast, OIES Research Fellows Manal Shehabi and Anupama Sen are in conversation with David Ledesma on such key debates covered in this Forum, including the state of diversification, response to the energy transition, and implications for local labour markets.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Economic Diversification in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
[comment_status] => closed
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-podcast-economic-diversification-in-the-middle-east-and-north-africa-mena-region
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[post_modified] => 2019-07-22 11:54:27
[post_modified_gmt] => 2019-07-22 10:54:27
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[324] => WP_Post Object
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[post_date] => 2019-07-08 10:40:44
[post_date_gmt] => 2019-07-08 09:40:44
[post_content] => The deployment of auctions in electricity systems has been spreading rapidly in many countries across the world to the extent that it may be regarded as normal practice in some contexts – such as the procurement of new conventional generation capacity and renewable energy sources – and that further extensions into other areas – like network expansion – have been proposed. However, the widespread use of auctions of this sort is a relatively recent phenomenon and it raises a number of questions, such as these: Are auctions of this kind a useful market-based tool to complement other methods of resource development? Are they a type of second best – a symptom of the fact that electricity markets themselves are broken and can no longer give appropriate signals? And, have we reached 'peak auction'? In this podcast Anupama Sen is in conversation with Malcolm Keay and David Robinson, Senior Research Fellows on the OIES Electricity Programme, to discuss these issues based on their recent paper: “
The Limits of Auctions: reflections on the role of central purchaser auctions for long-term commitments in electricity systems”.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - The Limit of Auctions
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-podcast-the-limit-of-auctions
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[325] => WP_Post Object
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[post_date] => 2019-06-21 10:56:53
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[post_content] => This issue of the Oxford Energy Forum focuses on Economic Diversification in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Diversification efforts in MENA (particularly GCC) countries obviously correlate with international oil prices. Economic logic favours specialization over diversification—individuals and enterprises should concentrate on what they can do best and where they have a comparative advantage. The increasing importance of global value chains for development emphasizes this economic logic, by moving competition from entire sectors to single stages of production and even individual jobs. GCC states hold a comparative advantage in oil and gas production, so why should they not tailor their economies to this sector and approach their own diversification in the context of the value chain of petroleum products? One might argue that countries with large resource reserves and small populations could then simply accept, for the time being, that price shocks will happen periodically. Of course, GCC countries are heterogeneous, with several states now having declining reserves and sizeable populations. In this context, with additional drivers of technological advancement and environmental unsustainability, diversification is more urgent. The fourteen articles in this issue engage comprehensively with the key debates on economic diversification in the MENA countries.
Tables for 'Economic diversification and sustainable development of GCC countries - Joerg Beutel
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Forum - Economic Diversification in the MENA - Issue 118
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[post_date] => 2019-05-14 10:48:49
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[post_content] => The number of natural gas vehicles (NGVs) worldwide continues to grow though there are major differences between countries both in terms of levels of penetration and underlying drivers. NGVs have some environmental advantages over petroleum-based fuels – particularly if biomethane is available - and, in many markets, are cheaper. However, the prospects for NGVs in the smaller vehicle sector are diminishing due to the rapid growth in electric vehicles. The growth outlook for heavy vehicles is brighter where electric traction is still less of an option. This podcast discusses these issues, examines the factors behind the range in uptake of NGVs between different countries and provides some indications of future growth prospects.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Natural Gas Vehicles: are they running out of road?
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[post_date] => 2019-05-01 10:53:30
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[post_content] => In this Podcast Jonathan Stern discusses the third paper in his narrative of on the Future of Gas, entitled “Narratives for Natural Gas in Decarbonising European Energy Markets?”. In conversation with David Ledesma, Professor Stern returns to the theme of decarbonisation in Europe and asserts that the time has now come for the gas industry to develop narratives for its contribution to the achievement of Europe’s carbon reduction targets. Industry has a choice; either accept that gas demand in Europe will decline after 2030, and re-focus on other expanding markets (particularly in Asia) or take a positive step towards developing and implementing decarbonisation narratives, which will convince European politicians that gas can and should maintain its position energy balances post-2030. This will mean that policy-makers will need to change regulatory frameworks to prioritise decarbonization over competition – a major change compared with the past three decades. Corporate strategies which demonstrate how the gas sector will be decarbonized on a commercial scale will need to have reached the implementation phase by the mid-2020s.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Narratives for Natural Gas in Decarbonising European Energy Markets
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[post_date] => 2019-04-08 12:07:49
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[post_content] => In this latest Oxford Energy Podcast James Henderson, Director of the Natural Gas Programme at OIES is in conversation with Tatiana Mitrova, the Head of the Energy Centre at the Skolkovo Management Centre in Moscow and a Senior Research Fellow at OIES. They discuss a number of issues concerning Russian gas export strategy, including gas transit through Ukraine, the future of Nord Stream 2, the likely competition between Russian exports and LNG in Europe in 2019, the growing domestic rivalry between Gazprom, Novatek and Rosneft and the imminent start of pipeline exports to China. In addition, they consider the implications of recent management changes at Gazprom and the potential for LNG to become a much more important part of Russia's export strategy.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Russian Gas Export Strategy
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[post_date] => 2019-03-18 11:16:50
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[post_content] => In this Oxford Energy podcast James Henderson, Director of the Natural Gas Programme at OIES, and Jeff Edwards, General Manager at Shell Energy responsible for global LNG market analysis, discuss Shell's LNG Outlook 2019. The Outlook provides a consensus view of key trends in the LNG industry, and as a result the podcast addresses a wide range of issues from the short-term potential for a supply surplus in 2019 to the need for additional FIDs to ensure adequate supply in the early to mid-2020s. The conversation touches on key growth markets in Asia, in particular China, but also tackles the topic of decarbonisation in Europe and the potential impact on LNG imports. The need for increased flexibility, the impact of the rise in portfolio player activity and the potential for trade in greener forms of gas are also mentioned in a broad-ranging discussion of the LNG sector.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Shell's LNG Outlook 2019
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[post_date] => 2019-03-11 13:00:17
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[post_content] => In the power generation sector, the competition between gas and coal, at least for the fossil fuel share, can be intense in many countries. However, there are some areas of the world where there is little or no coal fired power generation and the principal means of generation is oil and/or hydro. Many of these countries are in Sub-Saharan Africa. In this podcast David Ledesma interviews Mike Fulwood, Senior Research Fellow at the OIES, to discuss his recent paper “Opportunities for Gas in Sub-Saharan Africa”. The discussion centres on those countries where gas might displace oil in the generation mix and the prospects for gas to contribute to the electrification of the region alongside renewables. The development of new domestic gas reserves in East Africa especially is likely to contribute to growth but there are also a number of countries looking to import LNG as a more economic and greener option than oil.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Opportunities for Gas in Sub-Saharan Africa
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-podcast-opportunities-gas-sub-saharan-africa
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[post_date] => 2019-02-20 12:37:25
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[post_content] => Energy transition risk is often viewed as a long-term risk, the impacts of which will not be felt for decades to come. However, this view may not be correct because even though completion of the transition might take decades, the increased uncertainty around the transition impacts the energy markets on a much shorter time scale than the transition itself. In this podcast David Ledesma interviews Rob West, Partner Oil & Energy Research, Redburn & Research Associate at the OIES to discuss his recent paper “Energy Transition, Uncertainty, and the Implications of Change in the Risk Preferences of Fossil Fuels Investors” which he jointly authored with Bassam Fattouh, Director of the OIES and Rahmatallah Poudineh, Lead Senior Research Fellow at the OIES. The podcast discusses how the uncertainties associated with the transition have already started to alter the preferences of investors in fossil fuel projects, especially in oil and coal, dis-incentivising long cycle projects leading to companies adopting lower risk operations models and potentially impacting on the valuations of companies. If capital investment levels fall in specific energy sources such as coal and oil today, it could lead to potential energy shortages with resultant price volatility and higher prices in the future which could drive the pace of the energy transition.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Energy Transition, Uncertainty, and the Implications of Change in the Risk Preferences of Fossil Fuels Investors
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[post_date] => 2019-02-07 10:30:44
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[post_content] => The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies held its second workshop on the impact of disruptive change in the transport sector, titled ‘Electricity, Electric Vehicles and Public Policy’. Participants included experts from the electricity, oil, auto, mobility, finance and technology sectors. The workshop focused on investigating the prospects for deep EV penetration. The focus was on specific urban transport modes (light passenger and small freight vehicles) and within the timeframe 2040–50. The workshop recognised the essential role of electricity in enabling deep penetration of EVs, while emphasizing that various public policies, new technologies, and changing social habits are the main drivers of that penetration. The workshop resulted in eight key takeaways.
[post_title] => Electricity, Electric Vehicles, and Public Policy: Eight Key Takeaways
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[post_name] => electricity-electric-vehicles-public-policy-eight-key-takeaways
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[post_modified] => 2021-08-23 12:15:25
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[post_date] => 2019-01-29 11:21:07
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[post_content] =>
All is not well on Africa's oil and gas scene. Falling global oil prices in recent years have handicapped efforts to turnaround stagnating output in major producers as well as slowed new producers from entering the market. This issue of the Oxford Energy Forum brings together contributors from industry, academia, and civil society to offer multiple views of the bright-spots and challenges facing oil and gas development on the African continent. It focuses on the politics and economics of seasoned producers in sub-Saharan Africa and the birth of new oil and gas producers and up-and-comers, and shows that while old political and security challenges persist, new governance and regional risks are also impacting the development of new oil and gas industries.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Forum - Africa's Oil & Gas Scene After the Boom - Issue 117
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-forum-africas-oil-gas-scene-boom-issue-117
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[post_date] => 2019-01-23 12:04:03
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[post_content] => In January 2020, the global limit on the sulphur content of exhaust emissions from ships will be lowered, forcing ship owners to choose how to adapt, one option being switching to LNG as a bunker fuel. In this podcast, David Ledesma interviews Jack Sharples to discuss his recently published paper “LNG Supply Chains and the Development of LNG as a Shipping Fuel in North-Eastern Europe” which was recently published by the OIES. The discussion covers the environmental case for LNG, the growth in LNG-fuelled shipping for newbuild vessels, the extent to which an LNG supply chain has been developed to meet the demand for LNG as a bunker fuel, and the role of specific companies as entrepreneurial ‘pathfinders’, before drawing conclusions regarding probable future LNG bunker fuel demand. The discussion also addresses whether the use of LNG as a marine fuel in Northern Europe provides a case study for policy-driven developments that may be replicated in other regions during the coming decade, as ship owners seek regulatory compliance in the context of fleet turnover.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - LNG Supply Chains and the Development of LNG as a Shipping Fuel in Northern Europe
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[post_date] => 2019-01-18 13:20:45
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[post_content] => During this podcast David Ledesma discusses with Brian Songhurst the key aspects covered in Brian’s recent paper ‘LNG Plant Cost Reduction 2014-2018’. The discussion opens with the reasons for the paper and an overview of how costs have fallen since the highs of the Australian projects to ensure LNG remains a competitive fuel. The challenges faced in preparing the paper are discussed including the separation of upstream and liquefaction costs. Scope and location cost drivers were explored including how costs may look going forward. Trends in project execution strategy and enabling new technology were reviewed that may reduce costs further or as a minimum keep the costs down and avoid a ‘boom and bust’ cycle.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - LNG Plant Cost Reductions 2014–18
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[post_date] => 2018-12-07 10:04:25
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[post_content] => James Henderson and Trisha Curtis, the CEO and founder of PetroNerds and a visiting fellow at OIES, discuss her forthcoming paper on current trends in the US shale oil industry. Following recent industry concerns that productivity and well performance might be set to undermine the future production outlook, Trisha outlines her view that in fact the shale industry continues to show impressive improvement across a number of metrics and that oil output should continue to rise impressively over the next two to three years at least. She discusses statistical evidence from a number of the major shale plays to reinforce her analysis, as well as providing specific examples of technology improvements that are leading to greater efficiency and enhanced well performance.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Current Trends in the US Shale Oil Industry
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[post_date] => 2018-12-05 11:29:59
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[post_content] => In 2017, a gas crisis emerged in Australia’s East Coast gas market. Gas prices had increased rapidly from mid-2016 as the full effect of the three LNG projects starting operations on Curtis Island worked through the gas market, putting domestic energy users under pressure. In March 2017, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) forecast gas shortages in coming years, potentially leading to blackouts and industrial closures. While gas shortages are no longer forecast, challenges in the East Coast gas market remain.
Building on their co-authored paper ‘Prices and crisis: LNG and Australia’s East Coast gas market’ that was published by the OIES in March 2018, David Ledesma and Nikolai Drahos discuss recent developments in Australia and the challenges ahead. They cover the reasons behind the recent crisis, why the world’s second largest LNG exporter may soon become an importer, and parallels with Oman and Egypt.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - LNG and Australia’s East Coast gas market
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[post_date] => 2018-11-20 12:14:18
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[post_content] => The ECJ’s recent annulment of a 2014 decision by the European Commission not to raise objections to the aid scheme for the capacity market in the United Kingdom has highlighted some of the challenges faced by governments in implementing centralised capacity mechanisms to respond to shortfalls in the market provision of electricity. There are also other issues around using centralised approaches to provide ‘reliability’ against the context of electricity generation becoming increasingly variable and decentralised. First, centralized mechanisms highlight the challenges in decision-making by a central authority, reflected in a misalignment between performance outcomes and agency incentives. This is mainly because the incentives of the government are indirect and non-pecuniary. Second, existing capacity mechanisms require the central agency to infer consumer preferences for reliability, something that is very challenging in practice. Third, the existing mechanism allocates the full costs of reliability related-outages to consumers, without providing them with the ability to manage or transfer the risk to those who are able to mitigate them. Fourth, an equitable allocation of costs of procured capacity among consumers can be challenging, especially when retail tariffs have a strong energy component.
In this podcast Anupama Sen interviews Rahmat Poudineh, Lead Senior Research Fellow of the OIES Electricity Programme, and Farhad Billimoria, Visiting Research Fellow at the OIES and currently with the Australian Energy Market Operator, to discuss their recent paper: “Decarbonized Market Design: An Insurance Overlay on Energy Only Electricity Markets”. The discussion focuses on a new model for electricity market design—the insurer-of-last-resort model—that works as a risk overlay on an existing energy-only market. This model unbundles energy and reliability and incorporates insurance-based risk management concepts with the aims of (1) aligning incentives for centralized decision making and (2) allowing revealed consumer preferences to guide new capacity deployment. The authors take us through the design of their model, and how to implement it in practice.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Decarbonized Market Design: An Insurance Overlay on Energy Only Electricity Markets
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[post_date] => 2018-11-13 11:28:16
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[post_content] => In this latest Oxford Energy podcast James Henderson and Vitaly Yermakov discuss Vitaly’s forthcoming paper on Russia’s gas supply surplus. It has been widely documented that Gazprom has had 100bcm or more spare gas for potential export to Europe, but recent increases in production have reduced this figure. In addition, Vitaly outlines his concern that, although the surplus is available on an annual basis, Gazprom may have much less room for manoeuvre on a seasonal basis, especially on very cold days in winter.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Russia's gas supply surplus
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[post_name] => russias-gas-supply-surplus
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[post_modified] => 2018-11-13 11:32:00
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[post_date] => 2018-10-30 11:39:29
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[post_content] => China’s “War against Air Pollution” has seen considerable action from the Chinese government over the last few Chinese five year plans, initially focussing on SO2 and NOX with the later plans addressing particulate pollution. In this fascinating interview, Akira Miyamoto & Chikako Ishiguro, Visiting Authors at the OIES, discuss the measures taken against air pollution in China since the late 2000s, how successful the Chinese actions plans have been to reduce emissions as well as gas demand and pricing in China. Discussions also include how the rise in Chinese gas and LNG import requirements drove Asian prices so high in the winter of 2017/18 as well as the future potential for additional LNG and gas pipeline imports in the future.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Outlook for LNG in China towards 2020: War against Air Pollution
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[post_date] => 2018-10-01 13:11:36
[post_date_gmt] => 2018-10-01 12:11:36
[post_content] => Over the last four years, major and rapid developments have been taking place in Egypt’s natural gas market to reverse the country’s indigenous gas production decline and manage its unabated gas demand growth. In this podcast David Ledesma interviews Mostefa Ouki, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute, to discuss the Egyptian gas market. During the interview Mostefa discusses how key government policy measures helped bring about the discovery and fast-track development of the giant Zohr gas field in 2015 as well as other fields that are expected to result in the doubling of Egypt’s natural gas output by the early 2020s. Egypt, as a major regional energy player, is also aiming at becoming a leader in future regional natural gas projects in the Eastern Mediterranean and is seeking to create a regional gas hub.
The podcast also discusses Egypt’s domestic gas market and how, in 2014, the Egyptian government initiated much needed price adjustments to reduce or eliminate gas price subsidies, especially for non-power consumers. Indiscriminate price subsidies had previously fuelled persistent internal gas demand growth during the previous two decades that led to an unsustainable financial situation. A new gas market law, issued in 2017, followed by an implementation decree in 2018, established a gas market regulatory authority that set about a fundamental restructuring of Egypt’s domestic natural gas market. These have changed the regulatory landscape for natural gas in the country, which should lead to a more sustainable natural gas balance in the longer-term.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Is Egypt undergoing a natural gas renaissance?
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[post_date] => 2018-09-24 11:37:17
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[post_content] => This issue of the Oxford Energy Forum looks at the future of gas from different perspectives. Future development of decarbonised gases – biogas, biomethane and hydrogen – and the consequences for gas networks. The importance of reducing methane emissions from the gas chain. Progress towards reducing the costs of liquefaction and the affordability of gas and LNG imports, particularly in low income countries. The potential for gas to penetrate new markets and specifically the marine transport sector. And the enduring issue of security of supply as a potential constraint on the future of the fuel.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Forum - The Future of Gas - Issue 116
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[post_date] => 2018-09-18 10:16:41
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[post_content] => The growing level of interest displayed in LNG as a marine fuel, driven by both environmental restrictions and economic attractiveness, means usage is certain to grow. There is, however, less certainty over the pace and scale of demand growth.
In this podcast David Ledesma has a telephone interview with Chris Le Fevre, Senior Visiting Research Fellow at the OIES, to discuss his recent paper “A review of demand prospects for LNG as a marine fuel”.
The discussion centres on the main factors driving LNG demand in the marine sector and the most promising sectors for LNG in global shipping markets. It also discusses the issue of LNG refuelling infrastructure and its impact on market development and the validity of current demand forecasts.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - LNG in marine transport - is it about to become the environmentally-friendly fuel of choice?
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[post_date] => 2018-09-10 10:58:50
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[post_content] => This issue of the Oxford Energy Forum focuses on the electrification of Africa, especially sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Due to significant expected population growth, the number of Africans without electricity access in 2030 may not fall much from today’s level of about 600 million, which is about 60 per cent of the world’s current population without access to electricity. The articles cover a wide variety of countries and issues, focusing on barriers to meeting electrification objectives and ways to overcome them.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Forum - Electrifying Africa - Issue 115
[post_excerpt] =>
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[post_date] => 2018-06-29 10:45:32
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[post_content] => The energy landscape is changing rapidly with far-reaching implications for global energy industries and actors, including oil companies and oil-exporting countries. A key issue facing oil companies and oil-exporting countries is how they should now position themselves and how best to be part of the renewables ‘revolution’. In this podcast David Ledesma interviews Rob West, Head of Global Energy Research at Redburn and Research Associate at the OIES, to discuss his recent paper “The rise of renewables and energy transition: what adaptation strategy for oil companies and oil-exporting countries” which he jointly authored with Bassam Fattouh, Director of the OIES and Rahmatallah Poudineh, Lead Senior Research Fellow at the OIES. The discussion centres on the falling cost of renewables and how companies and countries should invest in renewables in parallel to hydrocarbons, thus in many cases, freeing up hydrocarbons for export. It also addresses how companies should ensure that they can attract sufficient capital to meet the energy needs and how investing counter-cyclically can build a company’s portfolio for future growth.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - The rise of renewables and energy transition
[post_excerpt] =>
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[post_modified] => 2018-06-21 13:32:34
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[post_date] => 2018-06-15 11:04:23
[post_date_gmt] => 2018-06-15 10:04:23
[post_content] => The DG COMP investigation into Gazprom’s activities in Central and Eastern Europe has been running since 2011 but has recently come to a conclusion. In this Oxford Energy podcast Jonathan Stern and Katja Yafimava discuss the outcome and the implications both for Gazprom’s business in Europe and for the European gas market as a whole. In particular they assess the pricing methodology that Gazprom has now agreed to adopt, as well as other concessions which the company has made that should help to improve the free flow of gas in Europe but may also improve the competitive position of Russian gas on the continent.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Implications of the DG COMP investigation into Gazprom
[post_excerpt] =>
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[post_modified] => 2018-06-15 11:04:23
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[post_date] => 2018-06-04 12:14:10
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[post_content] =>
Oxford Energy Forum 104 (February 2016) looked at the transformation under way in the electricity sector, driven by technological developments and policies on decarbonization. It focused mainly on OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries, and on Europe in particular, where there are major challenges, ranging from the practical issues associated with the integration of the new intermittent renewable sources to the wider policy question of whether there is a fundamental conflict between two objectives – decarbonization and liberalization – to which these countries are committed. This issue of the
Forum explores related issues, but on a wider canvas – countries across the world, with a diverse range of approaches, many outside the OECD.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Forum - Decarbonization and liberalization in the power sector: international perspectives - Issue 114
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[post_date] => 2018-05-11 09:51:59
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[post_content] => In this latest Oxford Energy podcast Anupama Sen, a Senior Research Fellow at OIES, is in conversation with James Henderson on the subject of recent changes in Indian upstream taxation and the potential impact on the Indian gas market. The Indian government has set out an ambitious target to reduce energy imports by increasing domestic production, which could also encourage a greater use of gas in the domestic energy economy. To date progress has been slow, and this podcast explores the potential for an acceleration over the next five years driven by investment in domestic production.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast - Indian upstream taxation and the potential impact on the Indian gas market
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[post_date] => 2018-05-01 11:09:12
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[post_content] => This issue of the Oxford Energy Forum is devoted to analysing the role of oil benchmarks, their evolution over time, the challenges facing the most established benchmarks, and the extent to which the current transformations in oil market fundamentals and crude trade flows as well as changes in the regulatory environment are likely to result in the emergence of new benchmarks and new crude oil pricing systems.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Forum - Oil Benchmarks - Issue 113
[post_excerpt] =>
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-forum-oil-benchmarks-issue-113
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[post_modified] => 2018-05-11 10:12:26
[post_modified_gmt] => 2018-05-11 09:12:26
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[post_date] => 2018-04-18 10:52:21
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[post_content] => This issue of the
Oxford Energy Forum is devoted to investigating disruptive change in the transport sector. There are three forces shaping or disrupting the road transport sector, namely: autonomous vehicles, transport electrification, and shared mobility. The interactions between the three will determine the future of energy use in transport. The determinants of these three disruptors include factors such as government policies, technological advances, infrastructure, battery costs, material supply chains, consumer behaviour,
and the development of alternative
fuels. The articles in this issue analyse in detail each of the three disruptors and their associated drivers and constraints, presenting a range of views on the future of transport and energy use.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Forum - Disruptive Change in the Transport Sector - Issue 112
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-forum-disruptive-change-transport-sector-issue-112
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[post_modified] => 2021-08-23 12:38:48
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[post_date] => 2018-03-22 14:21:59
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[post_content] => After a volatile 12 months for LNG freight rates, James Henderson, Director of the OIES Gas Programme, and Howard Rogers, the Programmes Chairman, discuss Howard’s recent paper ‘The LNG Shipping Forecast’. Their conversation ranges from a review of the recent trends in LNG shipping rates to a debate about Howard’s new model for shipping costs and his thoughts on the future economic cost of LNG shipping to the European and Asian markets from various key producer locations.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-podcast-7
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[post_modified] => 2018-03-22 14:21:59
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[post_date] => 2018-03-12 13:44:04
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[post_content] => In this Oxford Energy Podcast David Ledesma interviews Anouk Honore, Senior Research Fellow at the OIES, about the current challenges taking place in gas supply from the Dutch Groningen gas field. The interview discusses the recent earthquakes in the Groningen area of the Netherlands and their impact on the gas production caps on Dutch gas supply. Anouk also explores the wider impact of the gas supply cuts on Northern Europe that could effect 15 million residential gas buyers in Belgium, France and Germany. The interview concludes by discussing the impact of reduced gas supply on European Security of Supply.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-podcast-6
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[post_modified] => 2018-03-12 13:45:05
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[post_date] => 2018-02-05 11:52:50
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[post_content] => In this Oxford Energy Podcast David Ledesma interviews James Henderson, the Director of the Gas Programme at OIES, about his recent paper on developments at the Gas Exchange in St. Petersburg. Written in collaboration with Tatiana Mitrova at the Skolkovo Energy Centre in Moscow, the paper looks at the history of gas trading in Russia, the current state of the Exchange in St. Petersburg and the challenges facing SPIMEX as it seeks to develop a fully liquid trading hub. The outcome, it would seem, is fairly binary – either the exchange will catalyse significant change in the Russian gas sector, or it could fade into obscurity.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
[comment_status] => closed
[ping_status] => closed
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-podcast-5
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[post_modified] => 2018-02-05 11:52:50
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[post_date] => 2018-01-17 13:00:42
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[post_content] => The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies held a Workshop – the first of a series – on
‘Disruptive Change in the Transport Sector’ in relation to its impact on energy use in private transport. Participants included experts from the energy, auto, mobility, and technology sectors. This document summarises eight key takeaways from the Workshop discussions:
- Despite many government announcements and strong press coverage regarding vehicle electrification, there are alternative technologies which are also important for future mobility.
- Level 5 Autonomous Vehicles are still some years away, and will be context-specific.
- Cost is one among multiple factors in the scaling up of batteries.
- Grid management is critical to electric vehicle (EV) adoption.
- Automobile manufacturers will need to restructure their business models around value creation.
- Technology diffusion goes beyond cost-competitiveness.
- Emerging markets will also adopt EVs, driven primarily by government policy – but outcomes will differ.
- Automation, electrification and shared mobility imply very different types of impacts in different combinations.
[post_title] => Disruptive Change in the Transport Sector - Eight Key Takeaways
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[post_modified] => 2021-08-23 12:39:13
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[post_date] => 2018-01-08 10:42:45
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[post_content] => Issue 111 of the Oxford Energy Forum focuses on the potential outcomes and impact of US energy policy over the next four years, both for the US domestic economy and for international energy markets. The advent of the Trump Administration has marked a dramatic reversal of previous US energy policy, including on regulation, clean energy, and US commitments under the Paris Agreement. Despite this, the emerging consensus from the issue is that markets, rather than US domestic policy, will continue to play the dominant role in shaping outcomes. More difficult to predict, however, is the potential impact that trade protectionism and an inward-looking foreign policy may have on the functioning of international energy markets.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Forum - What's Next for US Energy Policy? - Issue 111
[post_excerpt] =>
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-forum-next-us-energy-policy-issue-111
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[post_modified] => 2018-01-08 10:48:35
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[post_date] => 2018-01-03 10:30:45
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[post_content] => In this fourth OIES Energy Podcast Jonathan Stern discusses his latest paper on the future of gas in the global energy economy, entitled “Challenges to the Future of Gas: unburnable or unaffordable?”. In conversation with David Ledesma, Professor Stern reviews his hypothesis that while the gas industry needs to have a decarbonisation strategy if it is to prosper in the long term in Europe, in many other parts of the world the issue is price. In particular, in non-OECD countries gas is viewed as an expensive energy option, and although it can help to alleviate air quality problems in some cities, it needs to be affordable if demand is to grow in line with optimistic forecasts. The implication for LNG producers is that they must get costs down if a new wave of projects is to be developed.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-podcast-4
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[post_modified] => 2021-06-10 12:49:02
[post_modified_gmt] => 2021-06-10 11:49:02
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[post_date] => 2017-12-12 12:16:11
[post_date_gmt] => 2017-12-12 12:16:11
[post_content] => Tricia Curtis, a research associate at OIES and founder of consultancy Petronerds, discusses the recent trends in US shale oil production, based on her recent paper for OIES. Tricia reviews the key basins for shale oil production and assesses the impact of technological developments on the productivity of new wells. She reviews the potential for continued advances across a number of drilling, completion and production activities, and discusses the breakeven oil price in the various shale plays. She also assesses the key challenges ahead for the US shale industry and outlines her thoughts on the likely production levels that can be achieved over the next 2-3 years.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
[comment_status] => closed
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-podcast-3
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[post_modified] => 2017-12-13 14:36:33
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[post_date] => 2017-11-21 10:59:17
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[post_content] => Michal Meidan, a research associate at OIES and leading China analyst at Energy Aspects, discusses the current state of the Chinese gas market and the prospects for future growth. The recent rebound in LNG demand in China and the renewed government focus on air quality and the environment has encouraged a more positive view of the future for gas in the Chinese energy economy. Michal discusses the reasons for the upturn in gas demand, the impact of government policy on coal-to-gas switching, the prospects for indigenous Chinese gas production and the balance of Chinese gas exports. She also assesses the need for price and institutional reform and the likelihood of China achieving its targets for gas demand in 2020 and 2030.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-podcast-2
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[post_modified] => 2017-12-13 14:36:59
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[post_date] => 2017-10-26 14:24:20
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[post_content] => In the first of our OIES Energy Podcast series David Ledesma interviews Tatiana Mitrova, an OIES Visiting Research Fellow, on the topic of Russian Gas. They discuss Gazprom’s export strategy, the current state of the domestic market in Russia, the politics of Russian gas in Europe and the potential impact of Russian gas on the global energy market.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Podcast
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
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[post_date] => 2017-09-25 11:10:41
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[post_content] => The expectation of an oversupplied gas market up to the mid-2020s has put natural gas demand back on the radar. This edition of the
Oxford Energy Forum is dedicated to gas demand outlook in various regions of the world, with the starting point being the open question on whether, when, where and, eventually, at what price there will be sufficient demand to absorb the coming LNG wave. The first ten articles investigate the challenges and expectations for future gas demand in the main importing regions: Europe, Asia and South-East Asia, the MENA region and South America. Because it is difficult to draw common conclusions even at the regional level for diverse group of counties, authors provide separate views on key markets and there are three articles that specifically focus on Turkey, China and India. Following on from that, two articles consider the potential for new gas and LNG markets, with a focus on the particular case of the Ivory Coast and the role of FSRUs. The subsequent article focuses on the prospects for gas as a transport fuel as scarcely a day goes by without an announcement of new investments in shipping or refuelling facilities, or the conclusion of a cooperation agreement. Last but not least, the final article explores the relationship between coal and gas and what could be the key catalyst for coal-to-gas switching in the various regions.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Forum - Searching for Natural Gas Demand in the Next Decade - Issue 110
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[post_date] => 2017-08-15 10:02:40
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[post_content] => This issue of the
Oxford Energy Forum is devoted to Mexico’s recent energy sector reforms. The reforms were designed to open up the country’s energy sector to international and local private players, inject competition, provide new partnering opportunities for PEMEX, establish new markets domestically, and potentially strengthen Mexico as a key link between the American and international markets for energy trade. However, these landmark reforms – which have significant implications for the country’s overall economy and the role of Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX), the state oil company that hitherto dominated its energy sector – are also not entirely without wider economic implications which need to be carefully considered as the country moves forward. This issue presents a spectrum of views on energy sector reforms in a country that continues to be important to both the regional and international energy systems.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Forum - Mexican Energy Reforms - Issue 109
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[post_date] => 2017-06-08 11:08:51
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[post_content] => This Insight published by the Emirates Diplomatic Academy (EDA) is the outcome of a joint workshop between the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) and EDA and draws on ideas and data presented by Dr Bassam Fattouh during the workshop. The insight examines how global energy markets are evolving, what this could mean for Gulf oil exporters, and how these countries could respond. The workshop identified ten structural trends that are expected to be largely responsible for shaping global energy markets over the next two decades and analysing their implication on Gulf exporters. These are:
Acceleration of shift in oil demand away from the OECD to non-OECD; Shifts in oil demand patterns within non-OECD Asia; Continuing role of US shale oil as a ‘new’, nimble source of supply; Shift in oil trade flows from ‘East to East’ and from ‘West to East’; Possibility of the US/North America becoming a net oil and natural gas exporter; Changing relations within OPEC countries;
Growing relevance of Russia-OPEC relations;
Changing nature of geopolitical risks affecting the oil market;
Shift in oil market perceptions from oil scarcity to oil abundance; and
high uncertainty regarding the impact of technological developments and climate change policies on future oil demand.
[post_title] => Global Trends in Oil and Energy: Implications for the GCC and Foreign Policy Responses
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
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[post_date] => 2017-04-19 10:23:13
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[post_content] => It has been nearly three years since the collapse in global oil prices and there have been mixed outcomes for countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). While some countries (which had already initiated reforms) benefited from the low oil price, in others it triggered a spate of pricing reforms following fiscal crises. Although there is now an unequivocal consensus over the necessity for these reforms, their manner and pace of implementation thus far has evoked fresh debates over their long-term sustainability and ensuing impact on the region’s rigid economic and social structures. This issue of the Oxford Energy Forum is devoted to exploring the overarching questions and assessing country-specific experience related to energy pricing reforms in the MENA.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Forum – MENA Energy Pricing Reforms – Issue 108
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[post_date] => 2017-01-16 13:31:43
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[post_content] => It is well known that Russia is heavily dependent on its energy sector, from both an economic and a political perspective. As a result, the fall in the oil price over the past two years and the dramatic changes taking place in the global gas market are having significant consequences for both the Kremlin and Russia’s domestic energy companies. However, instead of reviewing the increased risks for Russia from the change in global energy markets, this edition of the
Oxford Energy Forum discusses how Russia has started to adapt its policies and commercial strategies in a number of different areas. Some of the new strategies appear very positive, while others carry inherent risks, but all show how the world’s largest producer of hydrocarbons is being forced to respond politically and commercially to the shock of lower commodity prices.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Forum – Russian energy issues in a volatile environment – Issue 107
[post_excerpt] =>
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-forum-russian-energy-issues-volatile-environment-issue-107
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[post_date] => 2016-10-07 09:51:40
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[post_content] => Authors of the new OIES publication '
LNG Markets in Transition: The Great Reconfiguration', share insights and conclusions from the book at a recent
launch event hosted by CSIS in Washington, DC.
[post_title] => LNG Markets in Transition: The Great Reconfiguration - launch event
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[post_name] => lng-markets-transition-launch
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[post_date] => 2016-09-19 13:13:02
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[post_content] => The LNG market has seen dramatic shifts in its underlying fundamentals since the mid 2000s. The roller-coaster of pricing, the rise of LNG spot and short term trading and the emergence of the US as a source of ‘destination flexible’ supply are just some of the many dimensions of the industry which appear in a state of flux, not least due to the imminent arrival of new substantial supply from projects in Australia and the US. In September 2016 OIES and KAPSARC published ‘LNG Markets in Transition – The Great Reconfiguration’. This Issue of the Oxford Energy Forum comprises articles from several of the book chapter authors and the editor who provide summaries of their key findings.
In summing up, Anne-Sophie Corbeau, the book’s editor, argues that the LNG world is undergoing a `great reconfiguration’, in terms of volume expansion and changes in commercial models including the dominance of long term contracts. She suggests that aside from partial extensions of existing contracts, as LNG markets move towards greater commoditisation, there will be no turning back to the traditional long term contract model. Whether new projects proceed without traditional long-term contracts will depend on lenders accepting that short term LNG trade will become the norm, with reliable spot price benchmarks and lower LNG costs supporting project economics. This should enhance the role of LNG in the development of flexible international gas trade, and hence make a major contribution to the increasing globalisation of the gas business.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Forum - LNG Markets: the great reconfiguration - Issue 106
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[post_date] => 2016-06-28 11:24:34
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[post_content] => This issue of
Oxford Energy Forum (OEF) looks at the Paris Agreement (which came out of COP21 – the 21st Conference of Parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) along with its implications for individual energy sources, for particular countries and regions, and for specific policy areas. Perhaps most striking is the range of views contained in the articles here and the disparity of impacts as between different sources, countries, and policy areas. Whereas in the last issue of
OEF (where the focus was on electricity), there was much emphasis on the fundamental changes the industry is undergoing as a result of the rapid growth of low-carbon sources, and the similarity of the challenges in different parts of the world, the emphasis in this issue is on diversity. While some areas are seeing major changes and challenges, others are continuing with something little different from business-as-usual. The same applies to fuels; electricity is in the front line in most countries in relation to climate change policy, but for the oil and gas industries the challenges seem to be more to do with the medium- to longer-term. Perhaps as a result, investment markets seem distinctly uninterested in either the challenges or the opportunities offered by the low-carbon transition. Is this just realism or dangerous complacency about future developments?
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Forum - Issue, 105
[post_excerpt] =>
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-forum-issue-105
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[post_date] => 2016-03-21 12:07:31
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[post_content] =>
Transformation of the Electricity Sector: Technology, Policy and Business Models
Electricity is in ferment – an unusual state for an industry which has traditionally been used to enjoying the stability of long term assets, steadily growing demand and secure revenues. But these secure foundations are now coming into question as the industry faces major technological, economic and institutional change. Perhaps most visible are the developments in electricity generation – the growing penetration of intermittent renewable generation, driven both by technological advances and by the policy commitment to decarbonisation. Significant changes are also taking place elsewhere in the system, with the rapid development of information and control technology, which is opening the way for new approaches to system management and more flexible demand. It is likely that we are only seeing the beginnings of these changes – they raise wider questions about the very nature of the industry’s product and its relationship with its customers.
The technological developments have been accompanied by major policy and economic changes, notably: falling electricity demand, greater use of on-site generation leading to lower network income, governments rather than markets driving investment in both renewable and fossil generation. However, the institutional frameworks surrounding the industry are struggling to keep up. For about two decades after 1990, governments across the world focused on liberalisation and the extension of market forces; now there is a new emphasis on decarbonisation, with governments rather than markets driving investment decisions. The institutional frameworks surrounding the industry are struggling to keep up. Governments have not yet worked out whether decarbonisation and liberalisation can go hand in hand or whether there is a fundamental conflict. Markets have also been slow to adapt to the new era – the industry has traditionally relied on marginal cost (kWh) pricing, although a large proportion of its costs have always been fixed. With a growing penetration of zero marginal cost plants, the marginal cost approach looks increasingly outdated, whether at wholesale or retail level. Regulation too needs to respond to the changes, including the increasing decentralisation of the system. New control and coordination methods may be required to manage the rapid growth of intermittent generation, particularly wind. Indeed the whole basis of the industry’s workings are coming into question: what ultimately are its products? How should it price them? What business models should the industry be developing? What are its resources and how do storage and demand response fit in?
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Forum - Issue, 104
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[post_date] => 2015-12-16 13:49:36
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[post_content] => Energy trading in Europe is on the verge of a fundamental transformation. The implementation of a host of new regulations: the European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR),
the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID), the Markets in Financial Instruments Regulation (MiFIR), the Market Abuse Regulation (MAR), the Capital Requirements Regulation (CRR), and the Capital Requirements Directive IV (CRD IV)
will have profound implications for how international oil companies, trading houses, brokerage firms, investment banks, price-reporting agencies,
and futures exchanges do business. While there is a consensus among the contributors to this Forum that the new regulations will change the landscape by increasing the complexity of the trading business and the cost of compliance, as well as increasing reporting and capital requirements, there remains much uncertainty as
to whether these new regulations will achieve their intended objectives. Of particular concern are the unintended consequences of some of these regulations in terms of: reducing market liquidity, reducing the number of market players, the risks of regulatory arbitrage, and increasing the cost of hedging.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Forum - Special Issue, 103
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[post_date] => 2015-11-23 13:30:36
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[post_content] => While the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) continues to play a pivotal role as the world’s supplier of oil and, to a lesser extent gas, the collapse in global oil prices since mid-2014 has refocused the debate on the region’s ability to use oil revenues to build sustainable and diversified economies that can one day function without oil, or at least reduce their heavy dependence on the export of only a single commodity. The Paris Climate Conference in December 2015 will provide an opportunity to the global community, including MENA countries, to contribute new vision and perspectives to the debate, and to engage proactively in leading regional green policy efforts. In this issue of the Oxford Energy Forum, we ask the question directly: can the MENA economies use this time to initiate the switch from fossil fuels to renewables, from wasteful energy consumption towards energy efficiency? Can the region re-invent itself? Can it ‘grow green’?
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Forum - Issue, 102
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[post_date] => 2015-09-28 10:02:07
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[post_content] => This issue of the
Oxford Energy Forum is dedicated to gas pricing. A mild 2013/14 winter in Europe and parts of Asia and a slowing of demand growth for LNG saw European hub prices and LNG spot prices begin to fall through the summer of 2014. The collapse of the oil price in late 2014 resulted in a lagged reduction in long-term contract prices (LNG and pipeline gas) to levels below $10/MMBtu in Europe and Asia. These events followed a period from 2011 to 2013 in which regional gas reference prices in the USA, Europe, and Asia appeared to be held within stable 'corridors' at levels which incentivized the progression of a long list of new LNG projects in North America, East Africa, Australia, and Russia. Many of these will likely be 'on hold' pending indications of a more supportive future price environment, but some 150 bcm/year of new LNG supply from the USA and Australia will have achieved start-up by 2020; this will add further pressure on prices and stimulate inter-regional arbitrage.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Forum - Issue, 101
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[post_date] => 2015-06-08 10:14:28
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[post_content] => This special issue of the Forum is dedicated to Robert Mabro who founded the Oxford Energy Policy Club in 1976, the Oxford Energy Seminar in 1979, and the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies in 1982.
In this issue of the Oxford Energy Forum, Robert’s colleagues and friends reflect on the man and his work and how his extraordinary contribution to the field has enriched our understanding of energy markets, the behaviour of the various players, the dynamics within OPEC, the consumer-producer dialogue, and the interaction between governments and oil companies and how his deep insights and intellectually integrity continue to shape and influence thinking.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Forum - Issue, 100
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-forum-issue-100
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[post_date] => 2015-03-26 15:18:30
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[post_content] => Released today by the Center on Global Energy Policy
The US Shale Gas Revolution and its Impact on Qatar's Position in Gas Markets is a collaborative study between CGEP, Columbia and the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies that examines how Qatar may be impacted by major changes to the global LNG market.
The expansion of Qatar's LNG industry in the latter half of the 2010s, unprecedented in its scale and pace, established the country as the world’s largest LNG supplier. Such a move was made possible due to a sound business strategy of diversified sales and the disciplined execution of multiple projects. In addition to supporting its LNG business, Qatar's offshore North Field also underpinned the rapid growth of a domestic industrial sector and limited regional pipeline exports.
LNG is a dynamic sector however and Qatar has many new challenges to address, including the rise of competing new supplies from Australia, the US, East Africa, Canada and Russia, uncertainty about the pace of Asian LNG demand and a desire on the part of LNG importers to move away from oil-indexation as the price formation mechanism for long term LNG contracts. With its moratorium on new LNG projects expected to remain in place for the medium term at least, Qatar will seek to adapt its sales portfolio strategy in order to optimise its revenues in a more competitive market.
This said, Qatar has a number of comparative advantages. Its geographic location enables it to access Asian and European markets without undue transport cost penalties, co-production of condensate and NGLs from the North field adds significant robustness to the economics of existing and future new projects and its remaining undeveloped reserves available for LNG notably exceed those of its competitors. In addition Qatar’s proven track record on project implementation and its low cost location would also allow it to deter competition, should it announce an intention to resume an expansion of capacity.
Although the recent falls in oil and regional gas prices will impact Qatar's hydrocarbon revenues, the country has the financial resilience to weather these storms and to remain a powerful force in the LNG business for the foreseeable future.
Full Report
[post_title] => The US Shale Gas Revolution and its Impact on Qatar's Position in Gas Markets
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[post_date_gmt] => 2015-03-09 14:55:46
[post_content] => This issue of the Oxford Energy Forum is dedicated to Energy in India.
Set against the landscape of an uncertain international energy market and a potential slowing of China’s economic growth, the Indian economy stands poised as a hopeful prospect (the IMF forecasts growth of 6.3 per cent in 2015) in an otherwise unsteady global economic recovery. However, India’s new government, elected last May, faces significant challenges in implementing energy reforms, given the complex intertwining of physical (supply), fiscal, poverty and environmental issues. This issue draws together key debates on Indian energy.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Forum - Issue, 99
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[post_content] => Latin America is once again on the radar of the international and regional oil and gas industry, service companies, and policy makers. Secular changes in the petroleum investment risk profile of major oil and gas hubs such as Russia, North Africa, West Africa, and the Middle East, limited access to acreage in the traditional producing areas, as well as the lack of new exploration successes outside the emerging provinces such as East Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean, among others, have made Latin America an interesting place to re-visit. These circumstances have coincided with the North American unconventional boom and Mexico’s landmark reform that brought the Americas back onto the industry map again. This issue of the Forum covers several regional themes that will shed some light on the challenges and opportunities for the region, as well as some specific country themes.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Forum - Issue, 98
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[post_date] => 2014-09-22 12:19:20
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[post_content] => Energy in Russia, the subject of this issue of the
Oxford Energy Forum, has this year returned to the forefront of debates among academics, policy makers, and those in the industry. Politics, never far from these debates, is a factor: as a result of events in Ukraine, the tension between Russia and the western powers has risen to its highest level since the Cold War. The editors have endeavoured to provide commentary on the political and economic context of energy developments, while also inviting recognized specialists to comment on the host of issues - from long-term upstream oil issues to Russia's domestic electricity market - that are sometimes neglected by the big-picture analysts.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Forum - Issue, 97
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-forum-issue-97
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[post_modified] => 2014-09-22 12:19:20
[post_modified_gmt] => 2014-09-22 11:19:20
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[post_date] => 2014-06-16 10:20:56
[post_date_gmt] => 2014-06-16 09:20:56
[post_content] => Oil has defined the modern-day development of the Gulf region in a
way seen in no other place in the world; together, the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, are home to around a third of known global reserves of oil, and nearly a quarter of its natural gas. Saudi Arabia remains the world’s most important producer
of conventional oil, and continues to hold the majority of the world’s spare capacity, while Qatar has become the world’s largest producer of liquefied natural gas. This reflects the GCC states’ continuing pivotal role on global energy markets as a key centre of world energy supply. The fast-track economic growth and development experienced by the GCC economies since the mid-20th century in particular, however, has also left its toll on the region’s energy profile. No longer just global suppliers of energy, the GCC states have become a key centre of energy demand growth in their own right, accounting to a large extent for projections such as those by the IEA that see the Middle East alongside Asia as the world’s future energy demand growth centres well into the 2030s. This issue of OEF reflects on the variety of options and challenges faced by the GCC states more than a decade into the new millennium, and offers perspectives on future policy choices inside one of the world’s most important group of energy producers.
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Forum - Issue, 96
[post_excerpt] =>
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-forum-issue-96
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[post_modified_gmt] => 2014-06-16 09:20:56
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[post_date] => 2014-04-14 15:00:48
[post_date_gmt] => 2014-04-14 14:00:48
[post_content] => This issue of the Forum is dedicated to developments in Chinese energy
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Forum - Issue, 95
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
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[post_name] => oxford-energy-forum-issue-95
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[post_date] => 2014-01-14 12:04:40
[post_date_gmt] => 2014-01-14 12:04:40
[post_content] => Oil Benchmarks
[post_title] => Oxford Energy Forum - Issue, 94
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
[comment_status] => closed
[ping_status] => closed
[post_password] =>
[post_name] => oxford-energy-forum-issue-94
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[post_modified_gmt] => 2014-01-14 12:04:40
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[380] => WP_Post Object
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[ID] => 27462
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[post_date] => 2013-10-10 15:12:31
[post_date_gmt] => 2013-10-10 14:12:31
[post_content] => East Mediterranean Gas - opportunities and challenges
[post_title] => Issue 93, August 2013
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
[comment_status] => closed
[ping_status] => closed
[post_password] =>
[post_name] => issue-93-august-2013
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[post_modified] => 2013-10-10 15:12:31
[post_modified_gmt] => 2013-10-10 14:12:31
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[381] => WP_Post Object
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[post_date] => 2013-07-29 14:14:02
[post_date_gmt] => 2013-07-29 13:14:02
[post_content] => The Changing Refining Sector
[post_title] => Issue 92, May 2013
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
[comment_status] => closed
[ping_status] => closed
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[post_name] => issue-92-may-2013
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[post_modified] => 2013-07-29 14:14:02
[post_modified_gmt] => 2013-07-29 13:14:02
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[382] => WP_Post Object
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[post_date] => 2013-05-03 12:58:31
[post_date_gmt] => 2013-05-03 11:58:31
[post_content] => Developments in US Energy
[post_title] => Issue 91, February 2013
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
[comment_status] => closed
[ping_status] => closed
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[post_name] => issue-91-february-2013
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[post_modified] => 2013-05-03 12:58:31
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[383] => WP_Post Object
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[post_date] => 2013-01-14 11:44:12
[post_date_gmt] => 2013-01-14 11:44:12
[post_content] => Africa's Energy Outlook
[post_title] => OEF, Issue 90, November 2012
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
[comment_status] => closed
[ping_status] => closed
[post_password] =>
[post_name] => oef-issue-90-november-2012
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[post_modified] => 2013-01-14 11:44:12
[post_modified_gmt] => 2013-01-14 11:44:12
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[384] => WP_Post Object
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[post_author] => 1
[post_date] => 2012-10-17 12:18:39
[post_date_gmt] => 2012-10-17 11:18:39
[post_content] => Natural Gas Demand and Supply
[post_title] => Issue 89, August 2012
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
[comment_status] => closed
[ping_status] => closed
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[post_name] => issue-89-august-2012
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[385] => WP_Post Object
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[post_date] => 2012-10-17 12:18:39
[post_date_gmt] => 2012-10-17 11:18:39
[post_content] => Natural Gas Demand and Supply
[post_title] => Issue 89, August 2012
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
[comment_status] => closed
[ping_status] => closed
[post_password] =>
[post_name] => issue-89-august-2012-2
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[post_modified] => 2012-10-17 12:18:39
[post_modified_gmt] => 2012-10-17 11:18:39
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[post_date] => 2012-06-12 14:50:38
[post_date_gmt] => 2012-06-12 13:50:38
[post_content] => The Controvery over Energy Subsidies
[post_title] => Issue 88, May 2012
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
[comment_status] => closed
[ping_status] => closed
[post_password] =>
[post_name] => issue-88-may-2012-2
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[post_modified] => 2012-06-12 14:50:38
[post_modified_gmt] => 2012-06-12 13:50:38
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[post_date] => 2012-03-27 15:36:44
[post_date_gmt] => 2012-03-27 14:36:44
[post_content] =>
Oil Price Benchmarks in International Trade by Jorge Montepeque, Liz Bossley, Christophe Barret, Peter Stewart, Mike Davis, Bassam Fattouh, Amrita Sen, Peter Caddy, Giacomo Luciani, Salvatore Carollo
[post_title] => Issue 87, February 2012
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
[comment_status] => closed
[ping_status] => closed
[post_password] =>
[post_name] => issue-87-february-2012-2
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[post_modified] => 2012-03-27 15:36:44
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[post_date] => 2012-01-31 11:14:25
[post_date_gmt] => 2012-01-31 11:14:25
[post_content] => Technological Challenges and Developments by Ivan Sandrea, David Bamford, Petrobras and Boston Consulting Group, Michelle Michot Foss, Trisha Curtis, Samer Ashgar, Robert G. Skinner, Franz B. Ehrhardt, Tara Shirvani and Oliver R. Inderwildi.
[post_title] => Issue 86, November 2011
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
[comment_status] => closed
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[post_name] => issue-86-november-2011
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[post_modified] => 2012-01-31 11:14:25
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[389] => WP_Post Object
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[post_date] => 2011-12-07 12:08:56
[post_date_gmt] => 2011-12-07 12:08:56
[post_content] => Several members of OIES contributed articles to,
Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Volume 27, Issue 1, Spring 2011, edited by
Christopher Allsopp and
Bassam Fattouh. Each issue concentrates on a current theme in economic policy, with a balance between macro- and microeconomics, giving a valuable appraisal of economic policies worldwide. Volume 27, Issue 1, focuses on Oil and International Energy Markets. To access the articles please click on the links below:
[post_title] => Oil and International Energy Markets
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[post_name] => oil-and-international-energy-markets-4
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[post_modified] => 2016-02-26 16:35:27
[post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-26 16:35:27
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[post_date] => 2011-10-04 11:40:55
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[post_content] =>
Nuclear Energy post Fuklushima
Malcolm Grimston
Gordon Mackerron
Malcolm Keay
Interconnecting the GCC States
Laura El-Katiri
Oil and Gas Resources
Bassam Fattouh
James Henderson
Juan Carlos Boue
[post_title] => Issue 85, August 2011
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
[comment_status] => closed
[ping_status] => closed
[post_password] =>
[post_name] => issue-85-august-2011-2
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[post_modified] => 2011-10-04 11:40:55
[post_modified_gmt] => 2011-10-04 10:40:55
[post_content_filtered] =>
[post_parent] => 0
[guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/issue-85-august-2011-2/
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[391] => WP_Post Object
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[post_date] => 2011-05-18 10:46:57
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[post_content] =>
Political Events in the Middle East and their Impact on Energy
Robert Mabro, Helima L. Croft and Amrita Sen.Hakim Darbouche. John Hamilton
and Emma Murphy
WTI and Brent Benchmarks
Edward L. Morse, Bob Levin
Twenty Years of Producer–Consumer Dialogue
Bassam Fattouh and Coby van der Linde
[post_title] => Issue 84, May 2011
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
[comment_status] => closed
[ping_status] => closed
[post_password] =>
[post_name] => issue-84-may-2011
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[post_modified] => 2011-05-18 10:46:57
[post_modified_gmt] => 2011-05-18 09:46:57
[post_content_filtered] =>
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[guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/issue-84-may-2011/
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[392] => WP_Post Object
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[post_date] => 2010-08-31 13:48:46
[post_date_gmt] => 2010-08-31 12:48:46
[post_content] =>
The Uproar Surrounding Petroleum Contract Renegotiations
George Kahale, III
An Anatomy of the Oil Pricing Regime
Bassam Fattouh
The Balance between Long- and Short-term LNG Suppliesin the European Gas Industry
Axel M Wietfeld
Gas-to-power in North Africa: Implications for gas exports and supply
Hakim Darbouche
[post_title] => Issue 82, August 2010
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
[comment_status] => closed
[ping_status] => closed
[post_password] =>
[post_name] => issue-82-august-2010-2
[to_ping] =>
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[post_modified] => 2010-08-31 13:48:46
[post_modified_gmt] => 2010-08-31 12:48:46
[post_content_filtered] =>
[post_parent] => 0
[guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/issue-82-august-2010-2/
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[393] => WP_Post Object
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[post_date] => 2010-05-17 10:25:11
[post_date_gmt] => 2010-05-17 09:25:11
[post_content] =>
Energy Poverty
Robert Bacon, Suleiman J. Al-Herbish
The Credit Crunch and International Energy Markets
Christopher Allsopp
Gas Matters
Stephen Bell, Armelle Lecarpentier
Reforming UK Electricity Markets
John Rhys
[post_title] => Issue 81 May 2010
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
[comment_status] => closed
[ping_status] => closed
[post_password] =>
[post_name] => issue-81-may-2010-2
[to_ping] =>
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[post_modified] => 2010-05-17 10:25:11
[post_modified_gmt] => 2010-05-17 09:25:11
[post_content_filtered] =>
[post_parent] => 0
[guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/issue-81-may-2010-2/
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[post_date] => 2010-02-17 10:23:06
[post_date_gmt] => 2010-02-17 10:23:06
[post_content] =>
Copenhagen: A Partial or a Significant Success?
Benito Müller, Marianne Haug
Global Oil Demand Dynamics: Rebalancing the Debate
Bassam Fattouh
On Oil Peak or Peaks?
Robert Mabro
Oil Price and the Animal Spirits: Implications for the Oil Industry Leadership
Edgar Jones
Does the Electric Car have a Future?
David Robinson, François Badin
[post_title] => Issue 80 February 2010
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
[comment_status] => closed
[ping_status] => closed
[post_password] =>
[post_name] => issue-80-february-2010-2
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[post_modified] => 2010-02-17 10:23:06
[post_modified_gmt] => 2010-02-17 10:23:06
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[post_date] => 2009-11-17 10:21:04
[post_date_gmt] => 2009-11-17 10:21:04
[post_content] =>
Oil Price Volatility
Bassam Fattouh and Paul Segal, Robert Mabro
Problems of Oil Production
Lars Erik Aamot, Shamil Midkhatovich Yenikeyeff
European Natural Gas Prices
Howard Rogers
Solar Energy
Malcolm Keay, Till Stenzel
[post_title] => Issue 79 November 2009
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
[comment_status] => closed
[ping_status] => closed
[post_password] =>
[post_name] => issue-79-november-2009
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[post_modified] => 2009-11-17 10:21:04
[post_modified_gmt] => 2009-11-17 10:21:04
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[guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/issue-79-november-2009/
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[post_date] => 2009-08-17 10:19:15
[post_date_gmt] => 2009-08-17 09:19:15
[post_content] =>
Obama’s Energy Policy
Joseph A. Stanislaw, Richard Matzke, David Robinson
How Resource Revenues can Halve Global Poverty
Paul Segal
Will a Crude Oil Price Band Stabilise the Market?
Bassam Fattouh
Wind Power
John Constable and Hideaki Aoyama, Malcolm Keay
[post_title] => Issue 78 August 2009
[post_excerpt] =>
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[post_date] => 2009-05-17 10:17:00
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[post_content] =>
The Effects of Low Prices on Oil and Gas Investments
Edward L. Morse, Pedro Haas and Greg Terzian, Ali Aissaoui
The Oil Price Crisis of 1998-9 and 2008-9
Robert Mabro
Energy RD&D: a much needed clean tech stimulus
Marianne Haug
Venezuelan Oil Production Data
Juan Carlos Boué
[post_title] => Issue 77 May 2009
[post_excerpt] =>
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[post_date] => 2009-02-17 10:15:33
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European Union Energy Policy
David Buchan, Giacomo Luciani
Features of Recent Oil Developments
Paul Horsnell and Costanza Jacazio, Ivan Sandrea, Bassam Fattouh
LNG Trading: Overview and Challenges
Alex Wietfeld and Niels Fenzl
[post_title] => Issue 76 February 2009
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[post_date] => 2008-11-17 10:14:22
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Middle East Political Stability
Henry Siegman, Lkhdar Brahimi, Eric Rouleau, Walid Khadduri
Wither OPEC?
Robert Mabro, Bassam Fattouh
Personal Commentary
Andrew Gould
[post_title] => Issue 75 November 2008
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[post_date] => 2008-09-17 10:11:54
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Limits and Possibilities of US Energy Policy
Malcolm Keay, Jerome E. Roos, Jim Arrowsmith
The Oil Price Conundrum
Robert E. Mabro
The Oil-Climate Bargain
Peter Fox-Penner and Matthew McCaffree
Personal Comment
Mark Moody-Stuart
[post_title] => Issue 74 September 2008
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[post_date] => 2008-05-17 10:09:43
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Oil in Africa
Jean-Pierre Favennec, Bassam Fattouh, Walid Khadduri, Philippe Copinschi, Gerald Doucet and Latsoucabé Fall
US Presidential Candidates and Energy
Michael Lynch
Comments on Gas Demand, Contrasts and Prices
James T. Jensen
[post_title] => Issue 73 May 2008
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[post_name] => issue-73-may-2008-2
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[post_date] => 2008-02-17 09:58:26
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Gas and Transitional Fuel
Jonathan Stern, Michael Stoppard, Burckhard Bergmann, Thierry Bros, Simon Pirani
Assessments of Bali 2007
Benito Mueller, David Robinson
Personal Commentary
Nader Sultan
[post_title] => Issue 72 February 2008
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[post_date] => 2007-11-17 09:55:36
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Security of Supply
Paul Isbell, John Gault, William C. Ramsay, Hasan M. Qabazard
The Dynamics of Oil and Price Determination
Paul Horsnell
Letter and Comment
Paul Newman, Robert Dudley
Environment and Climate Change
Simon Caney, Benito Mueller, Robert Ritz, Paul Newman, Liz Bossley
[post_title] => Issue 71 November 2007
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[post_date] => 2007-09-17 09:53:39
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Access to Oil Reserves
Robert Mabro, Nordine Ait Laoussine, Michael Daly, Patrick Poyanne
Angola's Entry in OPEC: a win-win move?
Sadek Boussena
The Battle of the Sour Futures Contracts
Bassam Fattouh
Venezuelan Oil - The Unfulfilled Promise
Luis A. Pacheco
[post_title] => Issue 70 September 2007
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[post_date] => 2007-05-17 09:48:44
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[post_content] =>
Oil and Gas Developments in some American Countries
Adrian Lajous, Rogerio Manso, Ivan Sandrea, Anouk Honoré
China in Africa
Lindsey Hilsum, Bassam Fattouh
[post_title] => Issue 69 May 2007
[post_excerpt] =>
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[post_date] => 2007-02-17 09:45:18
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Nuclear Energy
Alain Bucaille, Adnan Shihab-Eldin, Pierre-René Bauquis
Climate Change, a Global Problem, is a Global Solution Possible?
Peter Nichols
The Oil Price Regime,
Bassam Fattouh, Robert Mabro
The Re-emergence of Ethanol Fuel in Brazil
Eduardo Luiz Correia
[post_title] => Issue 68 February 2007
[post_excerpt] =>
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[post_date] => 2006-11-17 09:38:07
[post_date_gmt] => 2006-11-17 09:38:07
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Energy Policy
John Mitchell, Terra Allas, Peter Odell, Olivier Appert
Energy in Flux
Joseph Stanislaw
US Environment Policy in states vs. the States
David Fridley, Benito Müller
Personal Commentary
Adrian Lajous
[post_title] => Issue 67 November 2006
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
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[post_date] => 2006-08-17 09:35:21
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Is Russia a Threat to Energy Supplies?
Jonathan Stern, Giacomo Luciani, Shamil Midkhatovich Yenikeyeff
The UK Energy Review and Nuclear Power
Charles Henderson
The Geopolitical Causes of High Oil Prices
Walid Khadduri, Eric Rouleau, Philippe Copinschi, Anouk Honoré
Why is the Macroeconomic Impact of Oil Prices Different this Time?
Christopher Allsopp
[post_title] => Issue 66 August 2006
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[post_date] => 2006-06-17 09:29:51
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The International Oil Companies
Richard Gordon, Chriss Ross and Lane Sloan, Ged Davis
Gas Prices in the uk : Markets and Insecurity of Supply
Philip Wright
The Engineering Procurement Construction Industry
Malcolm Harrison
The Gas Exporting Countries Forum and Europe
Hadi Hallouche
Some Farewell Comments
Ian Skeet
Personal Commentary
Derek Riley
[post_title] => Issue 65 June 2006
[post_excerpt] =>
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[post_date] => 2006-02-17 09:26:15
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Economic Implications of the Oil Price Increase
Roger Van Noorden, Hassan Hakimian, Walid Khadduri
Environmental Issues
Malcolm Keay and Benito Muller
The Role of Technology in reducing E&P Costs
Mark Andersen
The Strategies of non-OECD Gas Producers
Hadi Hallouche, Michael Tamvakis, Bryan Train
Personal Commentary
Charles Henderson
[post_title] => Issue 64 February 2006
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
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[post_date] => 2005-11-17 09:07:04
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Upstream Taxation
Alex Kemp, Pedro Van Meurs, Robert Arnott
US Energy Policy Act of 2005
Shirley Neff and Amy Meyers Jaffe
The Future of Russian Gas and Gazprom
Jonathan Stern
Too Many ‘Perfect Storms'
Robert Skinner
Personal Commentary
John Mitchell
[post_title] => Issue 63 November 2005
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
[comment_status] => closed
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[post_date] => 2005-08-17 09:04:16
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Refining and Price
Franz Ehrhardt, Douglas Terreson, Marshall Hall
Impact of the Power Generation Sector on Future European Gas Demand
Anouk Honore
Oil Prices and Fundamentals
Katherine Spector, David Long, Paul Horsnell [You can download the Paul Horsnell article here]
Personal Commentary
Julian West
[post_title] => Issue 62 August 2005
[post_excerpt] =>
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[post_date] => 2005-05-17 09:01:33
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Nuclear Energy
David Waller and Alan McDonald, Judith Greenwald, Paul Mobbs
Indian Gas Supply: Elixir for Growth or Priced out of Reach
Chris Hansen
Oil Production Expectations outside the Middle East
Andrew Hayman and Ivan Sandrea
Personal Commentary
Whalid Khadduri
[post_title] => Issue 61 May 2005
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
[comment_status] => closed
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[post_name] => issue-61-may-2005
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[post_modified] => 2005-05-17 09:01:33
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[post_date] => 2005-02-17 08:59:50
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Energy Policy: Old Baggage
John Mitchell
Technology and Energy – 21st Century Outlook
Bernard J. Bulkin
OPEC and the 21st Century. What has Changed and what have we Learnt?
Pedro Antonio Merino Garcia
The Private Oil Companies: From Consolidation to Growth
Robert Arnott
What Role Derivatives?
Paul Newman
Multilateral Energy Co-operation in Northeast Asia : Promise or Mirage?
Philip Andrews-Speed, Xuanli Liao and Paul Stevens
Lessons from North America
Edward Morse
[post_title] => Issue 60 February 2005
[post_excerpt] =>
[post_status] => publish
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[post_name] => issue-60-february-2005
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[post_modified] => 2016-02-29 14:04:32
[post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 14:04:32
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[post_date] => 2004-11-17 08:51:22
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Investment in LNG
David Ledesma, Ben Smith, Julia Richardson & John Burnes Jr
Investment in Power Generation
Lindsay Tuthill John Bower Mark Lijesen and Gijsbert Zwart
Personal Commentary
Philip J. Carroll
[post_title] => Issue 59 November 2004
[post_excerpt] =>
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[post_name] => issue-59-november-2004
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[post_modified] => 2016-02-29 14:04:11
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[post_date] => 2004-08-16 17:40:30
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Why Oil Prices Have Moved Higher
Paul Horsnell
Gas to Liquids
Howard Bevan, Johann Van Rheede, Bipin Patel
Why Oil Prices Have Moved Higher
Paul Horsnell
The Value of Oil and Gas Reserves - SEC Definitions
Peter Nicol, Brian Rhodes and Andy Crouch
Personal Commentary
Peter Odell
[post_title] => Issue 58 August 2004
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[post_date] => 2004-02-01 00:00:58
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[post_content] => U.S. and EU federal authorities have wrongly concluded that lack of investment is causing transmission congestion and threatening system security in liberalised electricity markets. This perception has unfortunately been reinforced by the blackouts of summer 2003.
[post_title] => Blackouts: Invest, Intervene or Inveigh?
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[post_content] => The aim of this study is to investigate the future risks to supply for the global markets for oil, coal and uranium. The study forms part of an integrated project by the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, which is developing a framework for a cost benefit analysis of energy supply security policy.
[post_title] => Exploration of Future Risks on the Global Markets for Oil, Coal and Uranium
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[post_content] => The recent history of the informal market f o r North Sea Brent blend has been of great interest to those studying commodity markets in general and the oil market in particular . Two aspects of this market gives it this important position. First, the very rapid growth inactivity in the Brent market means that for much of 1985 an average of at least 400 deals a month were being made. With each deal being for a lot size of 600,000 barrels of oil at around $25 a barrel the total turnover i n 1985 was at least $72 billion . The second feature of the market is that it operates as an informal forward market. There is no central clearing agency, as in a futures market, and so each deal is done directly between agents.
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[post_content] => In this latest OIES podcast, from the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Anouk Honore and Jack Sharples about their contributions to the latest Gas Quarterly, published in early April 2024. They discuss the evolution of gas prices over the winter of 2023/24 and the key factors driving a relatively benign market outcome. Relatively soft demand, caused by warm weather and slow economic growth, more than offset the impact of a number of geopolitical events that might otherwise have caused significant price spikes. In particular, we examine the demand trends in Europe and discuss whether there is any expectation of a rebound in 2024, while also considering demand in Asia and the outlook for both pipeline and LNG supplies in the coming 12 months. We also look at the level of storage in Europe and the prospects for the summer injection season, while considering the implications of a potential end to gas transit through Ukraine as its contract with Russia expires at the end of December 2024.
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23.04.24
OIES Podcast – Quarterly Gas Review
In this latest OIES podcast, from the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Anouk Honore and Jack Sharples about their contributions to the latest Gas Quarterly, published in early April 2024. They discuss the evolution of gas prices over the winter of 2023/24 and the key factors driving a relatively benign market outcome. Relatively soft […]
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16.04.24
OIES Oil Monthly – Issue 33
The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2025, is now available. – Tighter-than-expected balances compounded by heightened geopolitical risks have prompted us to raise our Brent price forecast by $2.5/b to $85.4/b in 2024 and by $1.6/b to $81.0/b in 2025. Our Brent price forecast revisions this […]
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10.04.24
OIES Podcast – Prospects of the Chinese coal chemical industry
In this latest podcast from the China programme, Michal Meidan talks to Kevin Tu about the outlook for China’s coal chemicals industry in an increasingly carbon constrained world. Drawing on Kevin’s paper ‘Prospects of the Chinese coal chemical industry in an increasingly carbon-constrained world’, they discuss the political and economic importance of the sector in […]
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02.04.24
OIES Podcast – The outlook for lithium markets and prices
In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Ahmed Mehdi about his latest paper “Lithium price volatility: where next for the market?”. They start by discussing the importance of lithium for the energy transition and the different uses and chemistries that are involved in the global cathode market. They then move on to assess […]
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26.03.24
OIES Podcast – China’s Two Sessions
In this podcast from the China Energy Programme, OIES China Programme Director Michal Meidan and OIES Senior Research Fellow Anders Hove discuss the takeaways from China’s Two Sessions, a series of important government meetings that assess progress and lay out plans for the coming year. The discussion centres on the outlook for the economy in […]
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20.03.24
OIES Podcast – Carbon Markets and Carbon Dioxide Removal
In this podcast, Hasan Muslemani speaks to Malek Al-Chalabi at Shell about some key issues in carbon markets, reflecting on the outcomes of COP28 including developments around Article 6, and an outlook for the future. The podcast specifically highlights the role that carbon pricing plays in reaching net-zero, how it fits within broader policy frameworks, […]
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15.03.24
OIES Podcast – Voluntary Carbon Markets in 2024
In this podcast, Hasan Muslemani speaks to Andrea Bonzanni and Antoine Diemert at IETA about the evolution of the voluntary carbon market (VCM) and its outlook in 2024 and beyond. The podcast discusses the VCM’s role as a climate financing tool, how it operates in practice, its evolving ecosystem and key achievements to date. Guests […]
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13.03.24
OIES Oil Monthly – Issue 32
The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2025, is now available. – Extended OPEC+ cuts and robust non-OECD demand have prompted a rise in our Brent price forecast in 2024 to $82.9/b from $82.1/b, while the 2025 view is steady at $79.4/b. Downside revisions to our supply […]
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06.03.24
OIES Podcast – Nuclear energy and China
In this podcast from the China Energy Programme, Anders Hove talks to OIES Senior Research Fellow Philip Andrews-Speed about his two papers for the recent Oxford Energy Forum on nuclear power entitled “The role of nuclear power in China’s energy security and low-carbon energy transition” and “Will Russian and Chinese nuclear reactor exports assist in […]
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20.02.24
OIES Podcast – Nuclear Energy in the Global Energy Landscape
In this latest OIES podcast, from the Energy Transition Programme, James Henderson talks to Sara Vakhshouri about the new edition of the Oxford Energy Forum which includes a series of essays on the role of nuclear power in the energy transition. We discuss some of the key issues in the nuclear fuel cycle, including the […]
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14.02.24
OIES Oil Monthly – Issue 31
The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, introducing our first oil market outlook for 2025, is now available. – Our Brent price forecast stands at $82.1/b in 2024, from $82.6/b in 2023, falling to $79.1/b in 2025. We continue to forecast a balanced market this year prompting us to maintain our Brent price forecast unchanged […]
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13.02.24
OIES Podcast – Aviation fuels and the potential of hydrogen
In the latest OIES podcast, from the Hydrogen Programme, James Henderson talks to Abdurahman Alsulaiman about his latest paper entitled “Navigating Turbulence: Hydrogen’s Role in the Decarbonisation of the Aviation Sector.” In the podcast we discuss the current balance of fuels in the aviation sector, the importance of increasing efficiency of aero-engines and the impact […]
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09.02.24
OIES Podcast – What next for US LNG?
In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples about the recent decision by the US government to pause the approval of new LNG export contracts to non-FTA countries. This decision has taken the gas market by surprise as it implies the delay […]
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22.01.24
OIES Podcast – Key Energy Themes for 2024
In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Bill Farren-Price, the new Head of the Gas Programme, about some of Key Themes identified by OIES research fellows for 2024. After a review of the outcomes from 2023, we look at the oil and gas markets and discuss a common theme around the contrast between […]
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17.01.24
Key Themes for the Global Energy Economy in 2024
This year’s key themes outlook focuses heavily on the resilience of hydrocarbon markets in the face of disruptions of many kinds; how sustainability and energy transition are becoming a strategic political objective that reaches well beyond the energy economy; and the technology elements of that transition where we see significant movement in the next 12 […]
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15.01.24
OIES Podcast – China Outlook for 2024: A year of contradictions
In this podcast, OIES China Energy Programme Director Michal Meidan is joined by Senior Research Fellows Anders Hove and Philip Andrews-Speed to discuss what the new year will bring to China’s energy policies and markets. In 2023, despite concerns about the real estate sector and consumer confidence, energy demand was strong. Will this be the […]
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21.12.23
OIES Podcast – Review of COP28
In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Energy Transition Programme, David Ledesma talks to James Henderson about his thoughts ion the outcomes of COP 28. The podcast starts with an overview of the key objectives of the COP before discussing some of the main achievements, debates and disappointments of the event. From […]
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19.12.23
OIES Oil Monthly – Issue 30
The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2024, is now available. – We have reduced our Brent forecast $0.8/b to $82.6/b in 2023 and $1.8/b to $82.3/b in 2024, from $83.4/b and $84.1/b forecast last month. We have lowered our Brent price outlook in 4Q23 by $3.2/b […]
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13.12.23
OIES Podcast – Wind of change for maritime transport
In this OIES podcast, David Ledesma talks to Maria Olczak about the decarbonisaton of international maritime transport. Maria discusses the current and projected greenhouse gas emissions trends, major challenges regarding decarbonisation and policy developments in the EU (extension of the EU Emissions Trading System to maritime transport) and at the International Maritime Organisation level (new […]
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12.12.23
OIES Podcast – The Winter Outlook for Gas Markets
In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood, Anouk Honore and Jack Sharples about their latest Energy Insight on the prospects for the gas market over the next 4-6 months. After an initial review of current price trends, the podcast then covers flows of pipeline […]
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28.11.23
OIES Podcast – Hydrogen pipelines vs. HVDC lines
In this podcast David Ledesma talks to Aliaksei Patonia and Veronika Lenivova about Hydrogen pipelines and high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission lines and how Hydrogen pipelines offer the advantage of transporting larger energy volumes, but existing projects are dwarfed by the vast networks of HVDC transmission lines. The podcast discusses how advocates for hydrogen pipelines […]
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22.11.23
OIES Podcast – Key issues ahead of COP28
In this OIES podcast, Michal Meidan talks to James Henderson and Anders Hove about the upcoming COP in Dubai, which is taking place from 30 November to 12 December. James discusses some of the key themes that will dominate the conversation at COP 28, which he also highlighted in his latest comment including the Global […]
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20.11.23
OIES Podcast – The EU’s CCUS Strategy
In this latest OIES podcast, produced by the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Klaus-Dieter Borchardt about his latest paper “Carbon Capture and Storage: the new driver of the EU decarbonization plan?”, which was published in mid-October 2023. The podcasts starts with a review of the EU’s attitude towards CCUS over the past 5 years, […]
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16.11.23
OIES Podcast – A Taxonomy of Carbon Pricing
In this OIES podcast, Hasan Muslemani talks to Hannah Hauman, Global Head of Carbon Trading at Trafigura, who is lead author on their latest publication entitled ‘The creation of a global carbon market: A taxonomy of carbon pricing under Article 6’. They discuss key pillars of carbon markets including different forms of carbon pricing mechanisms, […]
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14.11.23
OIES Oil Monthly – Issue 29
The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2024, is now available. – We have reduced our 2023 Brent forecast $1.8/b to $83.4/b in 2023 and $2.5/b to $84.1/b in 2024, from $85.3/b and $86.6/b forecast last month. Brent in October reversed the 9% hike from September falling […]
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31.10.23
OIES Podcast – Gas market update
In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples about the current state of the global gas market and the outlook for winter 2023/24 and summer 2024. After reviewing the stable state of Russian gas flows to Europe, Jack discusses the fluctuations in […]
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20.10.23
OIES Podcast – Clean Hydrogen Roadmap: Key Themes
In this latest OIES podcast, David Ledesma talks to Martin Lambert, Head of the OIES Hydrogen Programme, about his latest paper “Clean Hydrogen Roadmap: is greater realism leading to more credible paths forward?”, which picks up the key themes from the Programme since it started in April 2022. As in the paper, the key themes […]
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12.10.23
OIES Oil Monthly – Issue 28
The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2024, is now available. – We have upgraded our 2023 Brent forecast $1.2/b to $85.3/b from $84.1/b while maintaining the 2024 forecast at $86.6/b. Market fundamentals remain tight as robust global demand growth combines with extra Saudi and Russian supply […]
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02.10.23
OIES Podcast – The EU’s Joint Gas Purchasing Platform
In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Manuel Calvo Diaz, the Head of Energy and Environment at the Naturgy Foundation, and Alex Barnes, a Senior Visiting Research Fellow at OIES. They discuss a recent paper written by Alex and supported by the Naturgy Foundation entitled “EU […]
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22.09.23
OIES Podcast – Gas market update
In this latest OIES podcast, recorded by the Gas Research Programme, James Henderson speaks to Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples about the latest developments in the global gas market. Gas prices have rebounded slightly over the summer to reach $10+/mmbtu in Europe, and a number of new developments are changing the market dynamics. In Europe, […]
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18.09.23
OIES Podcast – US Inflation Reduction Act
In this podcast, Hasan Muslemani talks to Andrew Goddard about his latest paper entitled ‘Deal or No Deal: Will the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) push Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies over the line?’. The author evaluates the unprecedented support for climate and the clean energy transition under the […]
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11.09.23
OIES Oil Monthly – Issue 27
The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2024, is now available. – We have upgraded our 2023 Brent forecast $2.6/b to $84.1/b from $81.5/b while leaving the 2024 forecast little changed at $86.8/b. The upgrade was driven by Saudi and Russian extensions to their additional voluntary supply […]
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07.09.23
OIES Podcast – Will there be a gas renaissance in Africa?
In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Mostefa Ouki about the potential for a resurgence in the gas sector in Africa. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the decline of Russian gas exports to Europe there has been increased interest in African gas, mainly as a source of pipeline and LNG exports. […]
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23.08.23
OIES Podcast – Review of Electricity Markets
In this extended podcast, Rob Gross, Director of the UK Energy Research Centre and Malcolm Keay of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies discuss the possible reform of UK electricity markets following the UK Government’s ‘Review of Electricity Market Arrangements’. The discussion draws on Professor Gross’s article ‘Arguing over the fundamentals of market reform is […]
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21.08.23
OIES Podcast – LNG market development and greenhouse gas emissions
In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Research Programme, James Henderson talks to Jonathan Stern about three important gatherings that have taken place over the summer which have interesting implications for the gas industry. The first was the G7 meeting in Tokyo in May, then second was the LNG23 conference in […]
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15.08.23
OIES Podcast – Global Oil Market Update
In this podcast, David Ledesma discusses with Bassam Fattouh the latest trends in oil markets and assesses the key factors that are expected to shape market outcomes in the second half of the year and in 2024. They discuss the main factors behind the recent rise in oil price, the recent dynamics in physical differentials, the shifts in […]
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10.08.23
OIES Podcast – A New Global Gas Order
In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Research Programme, James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood about his latest paper called “A New Global Gas Order (Part 1): The Outlook to 2030 after the Energy Crisis”. The conversation starts by reviewing the key drivers of gas demand across the world, mainly in […]
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25.07.23
OIES Podcast – Quarterly Gas Review Update
In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Research Programme, James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples about the latest Quarterly Gas Review, published in early July. The discussion ranges from a review of current gas prices in Europe and Asia to an analysis of the impact of the cut […]
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20.07.23
OIES Podcast – Will green certificates help China’s clean energy transition?
In this podcast, Michal Meidan talks to Anders Hove about recent developments in China’s green power trading, discussing the findings of his forthcoming paper “Green certificates with Chinese characteristics: Will green certificates help China’s clean energy transition?”, co-authored with Gary Sipeng Xie. Green power trading is a market-oriented way to promote a clean energy transition […]
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13.07.23
OIES Podcast – The Relevance of European Gas Hubs
In this latest OIES podcast, recorded by the Gas Research Programme, James Henderson talks to Patrick Heather about his new paper entitled “European Traded Gas Hubs: their continued relevance”. The title of the paper was inspired by the questions raised by the European Commission about whether the TTF hub provided a relevant gas price benchmark […]
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12.07.23
OIES Oil Monthly – Issue 26
The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2024, is now available. – Our Brent forecast is maintained at $81.5/b in 2023 and $86.9/b in 2024, little changed from last month. Deeper OPEC+ cuts combined with softer non-OPEC supply growth in H2 will gradually overcome the -$1.1/b downwards […]
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10.07.23
OIES Podcast – China’s coal conundrum
In this podcast, Anders Hove and Michal Meidan talk about China’s coal consumption, drawing on the Coal chapter in the Guide to Chinese Climate Policies. Anders and Michal talk about the importance of coal for the Chinese economy, the geography of coal demand as well as structural trends in Chinese coal use as the country […]
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29.06.23
OIES Podcast – Is Australia quietly quitting the LNG business?
In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Research Programme, James Henderson talks to Graeme Bethune about his latest paper entitled “Is Australia quietly quitting the LNG business?”. The podcast starts with an overview of the Australian gas market, considering the main areas of domestic demand and the key production sites, including […]
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20.06.23
OIES Podcast – Renewable Hydrogen Import Routes into the EU
In this podcast David Ledesma talks to Martin Lambert and Abdurahman Alsulaiman, about the potential hydrogen import market, particularly focusing on the EU, which currently holds the largest and earliest hydrogen target. The podcast explores the emerging hydrogen trade market and considers numerous possibilities for its open up providing better clarity on policy statements and […]
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19.06.23
OIES Oil Monthly – Issue 25
The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2024, is now available. – We reduced our Reference forecast for Brent by $2.5/b to $82.1/b in 2023, from $84.6/b forecast last month. The outlook now reflects higher macro risks which will continue to temper price gains despite the market […]
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15.06.23
OIES Podcast – LNG and UK Energy Security
In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Research Programme, James Henderson talks to Marshall Hall about the impact of the global LNG market on UK energy security, based on a recent paper of the same name published by OIES in partnership with the UK Energy Research Council (UKERC) in May 2023. […]
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14.06.23
OIES Podcast – Unpacking OPEC+ Multilayer Decision
In this latest podcast, David Ledesma unpacks the latest OPEC+ decision with Bassam Fattouh. The latest OPEC+ decision is quite unique because of its multiple layers. To start with, OPEC+ countries agreed a new deal that starts in January 2024 till the end of December 2024. Also, earlier this year in April, several OPEC+ countries announced voluntary […]
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05.06.23
OIES Podcast – Electricity (re) Design and ‘Split Markets’ – Part 2
In this podcast, David Ledesma again talks to Professor Michael Grubb of UCL and Malcolm Keay of the OIES on the proposed dual market designs for electricity, focusing on split market proposals. In recent months, electricity market arrangements have been widely debated in the UK and Europe, because of the impact of high gas prices […]
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30.05.23
OIES Podcast – An Update on Global Gas Markets
In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples about the current issues that are shaping the global gas market. After reviewing the downward trajectory of prices over the past few months they consider the key sources of supply to Europe before providing an overview of global LNG supply and […]
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24.05.23
OIES Podcast: Taking stock of China’s energy and climate policies
In this latest podcast, Anders Hove, Philip Andrews-Speed and Michal Meidan take stock of China’s energy and climate policies in the first few months of 2023. They discuss Q1 2023 data, how China’s economic recovery is shaping up and impacting energy demand; they talk about the implications of rising coal consumption, production and trade for […]
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22.05.23
OIES Podcast – Building the Indian Carbon Market
David Ledesma discusses with Mohua Mukherjee what to expect from the Indian Carbon Market which is under preparation at the moment and will be launched later in 2023. India, like other signatories to the Paris Agreement, will be setting up its emission trading rules as per Article 6 of the Agreement. India was the second […]
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18.05.23
OIES Podcast – EU solidarity at a time of gas crisis
In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the OIES Gas Research Programme, James Henderson talks to Katja Yafimava about her recent OIES paper “EU solidarity in a time of crisis: even with a will the way still looks difficult.” In the discussion Katja addresses the key issue that although Europe currently appears to […]
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17.05.23
OIES Podcast – Unpacking China’s dominance in rare earths
In this podcast from the OIES China programme, Michal Meidan talks to Philip Andrews-Speed and Anders Hove about their forthcoming paper. They discuss the importance of rare earths, how China became dominant in its mining and processing and how Western governments are responding to this vulnerability. Rare earth elements are becoming increasingly important for the […]
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16.05.23
OIES Oil Monthly – Issue 24
The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2024, is now available. – Our forecast for global oil demand growth remains roughly unchanged at 1.6 mb/d in 2023 and 1.7 mb/d in 2024. China’s stronger than anticipated turnaround in Q1 buoyed non-OECD growth for 2023 to 1.5 mb/d, […]
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09.05.23
OIES Podcast – CCS regulatory frameworks in Canada
David Ledesma discusses with Nnaziri Ihejirika the development of Carbon Capture, Usage and Storage (CCUS) in Canada and government regulation. To support the broad adoption of CCUS in Canada, the government has introduced two fiscal and regulatory levers – carbon pricing and an investment tax credit (ITC). Federal output-based pricing system (OBPS) for carbon, introduced […]
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05.05.23
OIES Podcast – Hydrogen Storage for a net-zero carbon future
In this podcast, David Ledesma engages in a conversation with Alex Patonia and Rahmat Poudineh on their recent paper focusing on hydrogen storage for a net-zero carbon future. The podcast delves into the various types of hydrogen storage options, highlighting their relative strengths and drawbacks. In order for a hydrogen economy to be established, several […]
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02.05.23
OIES Podcast – The Outlook for Gas Demand in Europe
In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Research Programme, James Henderson talks to Anouk Honoré about her new Energy Insight on the outlook for gas demand in Europe. After starting with a little historical context, reviewing the reasons for strong demand growth in 2021 followed by the sharp decline in 2022, […]
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14.04.23
OIES Oil Monthly – Issue 23
The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, introducing our first oil market outlook for 2024, is now available. – We have upgraded Russia’s crude oil production by 340 kb/d to 10.57 mb/d in 2023 from the previous 10.23 mb/d forecast and expect Russian supply to average 10.44 mb/d in 2024, a y/y decline of 130 […]
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13.04.23
OIES Podcast – China and Hydrogen: A Tale of Three Cities
China is by far the world’s largest producer and consumer of hydrogen, mostly from coal and other fossil fuels, and the country has an ambitious hydrogen strategy. In this podcast, we dive into the provincial strategies on hydrogen in China, and specifically discuss a recent paper published by the Institute entitled, China’s hydrogen development: A […]
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03.04.23
OIES Podcast – Outlook for the Indian gas market
In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the OIES Gas Research Programme, James Henderson talks to Nitin Zamre about his latest paper “Gas sector reforms in India: How will it change the market outlook?”. They start by reviewing the current state of the Indian gas market, looking at the main centers of demand […]
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28.03.23
OIES Podcast – The New Forward Brent Benchmark
On January 31st, 2023, S&P Global Commodity Insights (Platts) confirmed the inclusion of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Midland in the forward Brent (BFOET) contract from June 2023 and provided further guidance. This followed the introduction of WTI Midland into Dated Brent in June 2022. In this podcast David Ledesma talks with Adi Imsirovic and Kurt […]
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23.03.23
OIES Podcast – The EU Hydrogen and Gas Decarbonisation Package
David Ledesma discusses with Alex Barnes the European Commission’s decision to make hydrogen a key part of its decarbonisation strategy. The 2022 REPowerEU Strategy set a target of 20MT consumption of renewable hydrogen by 2030. The Commission is keen to promote a single European market in hydrogen, similar to the current one for natural gas. […]
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20.03.23
OIES Podcast – An update on Global Gas Markets
In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the OIES Gas Research Programme, James Henderson talks to Jack Sharples and Mike Fulwood about the current state of global gas markets. They start by reviewing prices, which have fallen sharply over the past six months, before considering the key drivers of supply and demand that […]
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17.03.23
OIES Podcast – Evolving Lessons from India’s Rooftop Solar Initiative
In this podcast David Ledesma talks to Mohua Mukherjee about her recent paper titled “India’s Ongoing Solar Rooftop Journey from 2017-2022”. The discussion points out the striking contrast in terms of progress in India’s utility scale solar performance, which is far ahead of expectations, and its rooftop solar performance which is far behind the initial […]
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14.03.23
OIES Oil Monthly – Issue 22
The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2023, is now available. – The oil market outlook in 2023 remains dominated by two main swing factors: the prospects of the global economy and the extent of Chinese demand rebound; and the potential impacts of EU sanctions and G7 […]
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07.03.23
OIES Podcast – Cross-border Transport of CO2
David Ledesma discusses with Ralf Dickel the future need for cross border movements of CO2. To achieve net zero GHG emissions by mid-century there will need substantial improvements in efficiency and roll out of renewables, but also decarbonizing fossil energies results in large volumes of CO2 to be sequestered in geological structures found in oil […]
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01.03.23
OIES Podcast – Barriers and opportunities for greening steel production
In this podcast, David Ledesma talks to Hasan Muslemani, Head of Carbon Management Research at OIES, about his ongoing research on greening the steel industry. Hasan discusses the outlook for incorporating low-carbon technologies into the sector, particularly carbon capture and storage (CCS) and hydrogen solutions. Barriers and opportunities for each technology are also discussed, including […]
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21.02.23
OIES Podcast – Reflections on Russian Gas Production
In this latest OIES podcast, produced by the Gas Programme, James Henderson interviews Vitaly Yermakov about his latest paper “Catch 22 for Russia Gas: plenty of capacity amid disappearing market,” which was published in late January. In the podcast they discuss the sharp decline in Russian gas production in 2022, reviewing both the overall numbers […]
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16.02.23
OIES Podcast – An update on China’s EV Revolution
China’s electric vehicle (EV) and plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) market continued its incredible growth in 2022, reaching nearly 7 million in total domestic sales. The EV and PHEV market share reached 25% for the year and even surpassed 30% in the final months of the year. That’s up from just a 5% market share only […]
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08.02.23
OIES Oil Monthly – Issue 21
The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2023, is now available. – The year started on a positive note, with inflationary pressures easing on the back of lower energy prices, the pessimism over global economy appearing to have had reached a peak and China’s faster than anticipated […]
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07.02.23
OIES Podcast – Gas Quarterly: Outlook for Gas Markets in 2023
In this latest OIES podcast the Gas Research Programme brings you a discussion on the outlook for gas markets in 2023, based on analysis in our latest Quarterly Gas Review. James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood, Jack Sharples and Anouk Honoré about the critical signposts to look out for over the next 12 months, including […]
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02.02.23
OIES Podcast – China Energy Outlook 2023
In this latest Podcast from the OIES China Energy Research Programme, David Ledesma talks to Michal Meidan, Anders Hove and Philip Andrews-Speed about the outlook for China in 2023. They discuss China’s reopening after three years of stringent COVID controls and the implications for energy demand as well as energy policy. They highlight their views […]
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31.01.23
OIES Podcast – Carbon Capture from the Waste to Energy Sector
In this podcast, David Ledesma speaks to Hasan Muslemani and Mathieu Lucquiaud about their forthcoming research paper on the potential to generate negative emissions from European Waste-to-Energy (WtE) sector using carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology. The authors discuss the role that WtE can play in dealing with residual waste from municipal, commercial and industrial […]
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26.01.23
OIES Podcast – Gas Markets in South East Europe
In this latest OIES podcast the Gas Programme brings you a discussion of gas markets in South-East Europe and their efforts to diversify away from Russian gas. James Henderson talks to Julian Bowden about his latest paper on the topic, in which he outlines that although the region is relatively small in gas terms it […]
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24.01.23
OIES Podcast – Hydrogen Financing
In this Podcast David Ledesma discusses with Stephen Craen, Visiting Research Fellow OIES, the challenges facing the financing of future hydrogen projects as it is expected that a substantial amount of capital will need to be invested in green hydrogen production to meet the 2050 net zero targets. Based around an ‘Archetype’ world scale hydrogen […]
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19.01.23
Key Themes for the Global Energy Economy in 2023
In this latest edition of our Key Themes series we examine a number of topics which we believe will be highly relevant to the global energy economy in 2023. The past twelve months have seen a huge re-prioritisation of energy policy away from environmental issues and towards energy security and affordability. Many of the articles […]
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18.01.23
OIES Podcast – Nuclear Power in China: its role in national energy policy
With an installed capacity of 56 GWe, China has the world’s third largest fleet of civilian nuclear reactors and its ambitious expansion programme will give it the largest fleet by 2030. In this podcast, Anders Hove talks to Philip Andrews-Speed about China’s nuclear programme: the policy priorities informing the nuclear build out and nuclear technologies—where China […]
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12.01.23
OIES Podcast – The Outlook for Global Gas Markets in 2023
In this OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples about the current state of the global gas market and in particular the outlook for the supply and demand balance and prices in 2023. They examine the current state of supply to Europe, including Russian flows, LNG imports and other sources of […]
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11.01.23
OIES Podcast – Key Themes for the Global Energy Economy in 2023
In this latest OIES podcast David Ledesma talks to Michal Meidan and James Henderson about a forthcoming OIES research paper on the Key Themes for the Global Energy Economy in 2023. The overarching theme is the rebalancing of the energy trilemma, with energy security taking a more prominent position alongside affordability, while sustainability is a […]
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19.12.22
OIES Podcast – Oil Markets in Flux as Uncertainties Abound
In this latest OIES podcast, David Ledesma discusses the global oil market dynamics with Bassam Fattouh and Andreas Economou as another turbulent year characterised by extreme shocks, heightened uncertainty and very disconnected narratives draws to a close. They discuss the current state of the oil market and assess the expectations and the eventual realization of […]
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08.12.22
OIES Podcast – OIES Carbon Management Research Programme
In this podcast, David Ledesma talks to Hasan Muslemani about the new Carbon Management Research Programme recently launched by OIES. As head of this research, Hasan discusses the structure and objectives of the programme which will focus on three aspects: 1) carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies in energy and industrial sectors, 2) nature- and […]
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05.12.22
Webinar – International gas contracts: between flexibility, security & decarbonization
Oxford Institute for Energy Studies in collaboration with Fundación Naturgy organised a webinar on International Gas Contracts: Between Flexibility, Security and Decarbonization. The webinar discusses international gas contracts in the current context of the Russia-Ukraine War and market volatility and the energy transition and decarbonization. Link to Webinar.
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30.11.22
COP27 Podcast Series – 7: Post Meeting Update
The COP27 conference was held in Sharm El Sheikh in November 2022, and although expectations going into the event were tempered by geopolitics and the energy crisis there was hope for movement on a number of key issues. David Ledesma discusses the main conclusions of the conference with James Henderson, who was one of the […]
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23.11.22
OIES Podcast – International Gas Contracts
In this podcast, David Ledesma talks with Agnieszka Ason, Senior Visiting Research Fellow at the OIES and Manuel Calvo Diaz, Energy and Environment Director of the Naturgy Foundation about the new OIES paper on International Gas Contracts, which was prepared with support from the Naturgy Foundation. The paper explains the fundamentals of Gas Supply Agreements […]
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18.11.22
OIES Oil Monthly – Issue 19
The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2023, is now available. – The oil market outlook continues to be shaped by opposing factors. On the macro front, the growth prospects of the global economy continue to deteriorate and optimism that China will alter its zero-COVID policy and […]
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09.11.22
OIES Podcast – Guide to Chinese Climate Policy 2022
In this latest OIES podcast, David Ledesma talks to David Sandalow and Michal Meidan about their recent book, Guide to Chinese Climate Policy 2022 which they co-authored with Dr Philip Andrews-Speed, Anders Hove, Sally Qiu and Edmund Downie, published by the OIES’s in November 2022. In the podcast they discuss the rationale for the book, […]
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24.10.22
OIES Oil Monthly – Issue 18
The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2023, is now available. – Weaker global growth prospects amid persistent inflationary pressures and monetary policy tightening coupled with a delayed recovery in Chinese demand have become the key factors influencing sentiment and driving the outlook in 2023, dominating oil […]
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03.10.22
OIES Webinar – Price Caps in Europe’s Energy Markets
OIES hosted a webinar in which research fellows debated the possibility of price caps on European wholesale gas prices and their likely impact, discussed the possibility negotiations with gas suppliers to Europe (both pipeline and LNG) to moderate prices and also likely EU response to a complete curtailment of Russian gas supply in the next […]
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20.09.22
OIES Oil Monthly – Issue 17
The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2023, is now available. – The resilience of Russian production so far and ability of Russian producers to divert large volumes of crude from Europe to other markets have led us to revise down the size of the expected disruptions […]
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15.09.22
OIES Podcast – Carbon pricing schemes for Aviation
In this podcast David Ledesma talks to Nicolas Lockhart and Katherine Connolly on the critical question of how should we tackle aviation emissions? Two different regulatory schemes – the EU’s Emission Trading System (ETS) and the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) – are trying to provide […]
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08.09.22
OIES Podcast – TEN-E Regulation and decarbonisation of gas in Europe
In June 2022 the revised TEN-E Regulation, updating a regulatory framework for the development of cross-border energy infrastructure in the EU has entered into force. David Ledesma discusses the Regulation with Katja Yafimava, (the author of the recent OIES paper ‘The TEN-E Regulation: allowing a role for decarbonized gas’) and Alex Barnes. This discussion is […]
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15.08.22
OIES Podcast – The Brent Benchmark – Where Do We Stand?
The introduction of the WTI Midland crude oil into the ‘Brent’ benchmark has caused a fair amount of controversy, debate, and argument. In this podcast David Ledesma discussed this subject with Adi Imsirovic and Kurt Chapman addressing how the industry seems to be gradually reaching a consensus regarding the broad format of the new benchmark: […]
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03.08.22
OIES Podcast – African LNG imports and disrupted energy markets
In this podcast David Ledesma discusses African LNG Import potential with Mostefa Ouki, Senior Research Fellow at the OIES. Africa has been a source of natural gas supplies to the rest of the world for almost sixty years. But African LNG exporting sources are limited to a few sub-regions of Africa. Most African countries are […]
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29.07.22
OIES Podcast – The Indian oil market and purchases of cheap Russian crude
Following a number of requests, this latest OIES podcast covers the topic of the Indian oil market and more specifically the purchase by Indian refiners of discounted Russian crude following the decision of many western companies and countries to avoid Russia’s oil exports. James Henderson interviews Mohua Mukherjee about her thoughts on the current situation […]
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13.07.22
OIES Oil Monthly – Issue 16
The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2023, is now available. – The recovery in Russian output and refining activity in May/June has led us to revise down the size of the expected disruptions in Russian oil production by year-end to 1.8 mb/d from 2.6 mb/d previously […]
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29.06.22
OIES Podcast – Will China’s Power Crunch Shift its Climate Policy?
In this podcast, David Ledesma talks to Michal Meidan, Director of the Gas and China Research Programmes at the OIES, and Byford Tsang who is Senior Policy Advisor at E3G’s Climate Diplomacy team about China’s climate policies and the extent to which China’s 2021 energy crisis and the market turmoil following the Russian invasion of […]
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20.06.22
OIES Podcast – The Role of CCUS in Decarbonising the Cement Industry
In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Martin Lambert and Ali Abdelshafy about their recent paper entitled “The Role of CCUS in Decarbonising the Cement Industry: a German case study.” The authors discuss why CCUS is so important in the cement industry, and having outlined the general process of carbon capture and storage […]
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16.06.22
OIES Podcast – Green energy finance in the developing world
In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Robin Baker and Philippe Benoit about their upcoming paper “How Project Finance Can Advance the Clean Energy Transition in Developing Countries.” The authors discuss how the huge investment needed in developing countries to meet climate change targets is becoming a critical issue, and that although significant […]
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14.06.22
OIES Oil Monthly – Issue 15
The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2023, is now available. – EU’s recently agreed embargo on Russian oil has led us to revise upwards our reference case of the expected disruptions in Russian oil production by year-end to 2.6 mb/d from 1.6 mb/d previously. Our reference […]
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08.06.22
Electricity distribution networks in the decentralisation era: re-thinking economics and regulation
In this webinar co-authors Rahmat Poudineh, Christine Brandstätt and Farhad Billimoria discuss the key insights from their recent book, “Electricity distribution networks in the decentralisation era: re-thinking economics and regulation”. They are joined by two eminent discussants: Professor Pierluigi Mancarella, University of Melbourne, and Professor Michael Pollitt, Judge Business School, University of Cambridge. The book […]
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27.05.22
OIES Podcast – Energy Networks in the Energy Transition Era
Energy networks are infrastructures that transfer energy from the production source to the consumers’ premises. They constitute various forms of technologies ranging from established networks, such as electricity and natural gas, to emerging grids, such as hydrogen, heating, and cooling. The net-zero carbon target will result in a significant change in energy systems with important […]
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18.05.22
OIES Oil Monthly – Issue 14
The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2023, is now available. – The disruption in Russian supplies intensified in April with an estimated loss of 1 mb/d of production m/m. We now expect Russian oil production shut ins to average between 1.6 mb/d and 3 mb/d in […]
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03.05.22
OIES Podcast – India’s Progress on its Climate Action Plan
India has taken on the unique challenge of trying to decarbonize while also growing its economy at 8-9% per annum. This is the required growth rate in order to meet the aspirations of its people related to decent employment, reliable economic growth, and improved standards of living. If you’ve heard the expression “trying to change […]
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28.04.22
OIES Podcast – China’s energy plans and macroeconomic realities?
In this OIES podcast David Ledesma talks to Michal Meidan about China’s recently published energy five-year plans and how they align with the country’s near-term priorities. David and Michal discuss the macroeconomic outlook in China and the implications of the zero-tolerance approach to COVID for oil and gas demand, as well as how the Russian […]
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12.04.22
OIES Oil Monthly – Issue 13
This month’s Special Issue continues to assess the implications of the Ukraine war on our short-term oil market outlook for supply/demand and price dynamics to 2023, featuring the first detailed assessment of the impacts on OECD products demand. The analysis considers two principal scenarios. A Reference case in which self-sanctioning measures and obstacles in redirecting Russian crude and petroleum […]
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28.03.22
Oxford Energy Podcast – EU plans to reduce Russian gas imports
In this OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Anouk Honoré and Jack Sharples about the EU plan to diversify gas imports away from Russia in 2022. They discuss the latest strategy published by the European Commission on March 8, which addresses both the supply and demand-side options. The podcast considers the potential to import an […]
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23.03.22
Oxford Energy Podcast – China’s power market reforms in an age of insecurity
In 2021, China experienced several episodes of power shortages and outages, heightening already existing concerns about energy security. In response, the government instituted a rapid succession of market reforms and other regulatory changes, which have pushed the majority of power users into the power market and also allowed for a wider range of electricity prices. […]
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14.03.22
OIES Oil Monthly – Special Issue 12
This month’s OIES Oil Monthly Special Issue assesses the implications of the Ukraine war on our short-term oil market outlook for market balances and prices to 2023. The analysis considers two scenarios. A Reference case in which self-sanctioning measures and obstacles in redirecting Russian crude flows due to financing and shipping constraints results in a […]
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09.02.22
OIES Oil Monthly – Issue 11
The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2023, is now available. Our reference forecast for Brent is upgraded to $85.2/b in 2022 and $82.1/b in 2023. The major uplifts this month mainly reflect the muted impact of Omicron on demand that outperformed our previous growth expectations in […]
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18.01.22
Key Themes for the Global Energy Economy in 2022
This paper contains 20 short articles which outline the views of OIES research fellows on some of the key themes for the global energy economy in 2022. Starting with views on the short-term outlook for oil, electricity and gas markets, the articles move on to cover LNG supply and Russian export strategy as well as […]
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13.01.22
Oxford Energy Podcast – Klimat: Russia in the Age of Climate Change
In this OIES podcast James Henderson talks with Professor Thane Gustafson about his new book entitled “Klimat: Russia in the Age of Climate Change”. They discuss the challenges which Russia will face from the energy transition both in terms of declining hydrocarbon export revenues and also from internal changes to the Russian environment. Professor Gustafson […]
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10.12.21
Oxford Energy Podcast – China – Governance of the Energy Transition in China
In this podcast, David Ledesma talks to Michal Meidan, (Director of the China Energy Programme at OIES), Philip Andrews-Speed (Senior Research Fellow, OIES & Senior Principal Fellow at the Energy Studies Institute, National University of Singapore) and Anders Hove, (Project Director for the Energy Transition project at GIZ & Research Associate, OIES) about the key takeaways from their paper : “Software […]
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08.12.21
OIES Oil Monthly – Issue 10
The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2023, is now available. This month’s featured In Focus piece focuses on the key features of OPEC+ in the current cycle, the new dynamics emerging and the factors shaping its next move ahead. The decisions and measures made by OPEC+ […]
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23.11.21
Oxford Energy Podcast – Reflections on COP26
In this latest edition of the OIES podcast series David Ledesma and James Henderson reflect on the outcomes of COP26 from an energy sector perspective. They review the main goals of the COP and discuss the conclusions of both the formal UNFCCC process as well as a number of initiatives that were developed by the […]
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19.11.21
Oxford Energy Podcast – Gas Quarterly – November 2021
In this podcast related to the latest OIES Quarterly Gas Review, David Ledesma discusses with Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples the short-term gas pricing developments, with a focus on the very sharp rise in wholesale gas prices in recent months. The discussion considers the extent to which the growth in LNG demand outstripped supply at […]
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09.11.21
OIES Oil Monthly – Issue 9
The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our first oil market outlook for 2023, is now available. This month’s featured In Focus piece focuses on the impact of China’s power crunch on diesel demand. China’s power outages have boosted diesel margins, especially in light of reduced output from the Shandong independents. The State-owned majors […]
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04.11.21
Oxford Energy Podcast – The future of gas in India’s energy transition
In this OIES podcast, recorded just before the start of the COP26 summit, James Henderson talks to Anupama Sen, a Senior Research Fellow at OIES, Deputy Director of the Energy Transition Research Initiative and Executive Director of the Electricity Research Programme. They discuss the role of gas in India’s energy economy, and its transition strategy […]
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01.11.21
Quarterly Gas Review – Issue 15
In the latest OIES Quarterly Gas Review, we focus on short-term gas pricing developments discussing the very sharp rise in wholesale gas prices in recent months. With continued strong demand in Asia and Central and South America, alongside seemingly constrained supply, LNG available for Europe was limited. Moreover, in light of production issues, even higher […]
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27.10.21
Oxford Energy Podcast – COP26: This time it’s serious
In this OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Malcolm Keay, a Senior Research Fellow at OIES, about his article “COP26: This time it’s serious” which was published in the latest edition of the Oxford Energy Forum. Malcolm discusses the history of COP agreements since Kyoto, and in particular focuses on the importance of COP21 in […]
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20.10.21
Oxford Energy Podcast – COP26 and China
In this OIES podcast James Henderson, Director of the OIES Energy Transition Research Initiative, talks with Michal Meidan, Director of the Gas and China Energy Research Programmes at OIES, about China’s environmental policies and the country’s position ahead of COP26. Michal discusses China’s history of environmental diplomacy and addresses the somewhat ambiguous position the country […]
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06.10.21
OIES Oil Monthly – Issue 8
The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook, is now available. This month’s featured In Focus piece focuses on West African crudes and their important role as a bellwether for the strength of the recovery. Given the uncertainties still surrounding the oil market and the prevalence of the view […]
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30.09.21
Oxford Energy Podcast – Why are gas prices so high?
In this podcast, David Ledesma talks to Mike Fulwood, Jack Sharples and Mostefa Ouki about the current gas price rally, the outlook for the winter and potential risks. Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples discuss the drivers behind the current bull run on gas prices, unpacking the differences in gas supply and demand in the first […]
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15.09.21
Oxford Energy Podcast – CCUS in Canada
Canada is considered a world leader in the deployment of carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technologies, with 17 per cent of total installed capacity globally. Strategically, the federal government has positioned carbon capture as an imperative for the continued extraction, processing and utilization of the country’s vast oilsands and natural gas deposits in a […]
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08.09.21
OIES Oil Monthly – Issue 7
The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook, is now available. This month’s featured In Focus piece focuses on India’s oil demand and on the headwinds that compromise a surprise recovery similar to 2020. Following the devastating impact of the second COVID wave on India’s product demand in April […]
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18.08.21
Oxford Energy Podcast – Does Ghana Need LNG?
The floating regasification unit (FRU) arrived at Tema port, Ghana, on May 26 2021 and this unit, in conjunction with the dedicated storage vessel new-build 180,000 m3 Vasant 1, heralds the start of LNG imports into Ghana. In this podcast David Ledesma discusses with Mike Fulwood the Ghana and West African gas market, imports into […]
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29.07.21
Oxford Energy Podcast – OPAL Judgement
In this OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Katja Yafimava and Kim Talus about the recent judgement by EU Court of Justice (made on the 15th July 2021), which rejected a German appeal concerning the 2016 OPAL exemption decision and reinstated the 2009 OPAL exemption, under which Gazprom’s OPAL bookings are restricted by 50%. The […]
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12.07.21
OIES Oil Monthly – Issue 6
The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook, is now available. This month’s featured In Focus piece focuses on China’s crackdown on the Shandong teapots through the imposition of a consumption tax on blendstocks and tighter scrutiny over import quota trading. The In Focus argues that the crackdown bodes […]
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28.06.21
Oxford Energy Podcast – The Outlook for Nord Stream 2
By popular demand, Katja Yafimava discusses the current situation surrounding the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and the prospects for its future use with James Henderson in this latest Oxford Energy podcast. She provides an overview of the current issues concerned with the construction of the pipe before discussing the key legislative and regulatory landmarks that […]
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02.06.21
OIES Oil Monthly – Issue 5
The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly including our latest short-term oil market outlook is now available. This month’s featured In Focus piece focuses on the ongoing talks for the revival of the JCPOA and analyses what lifting the US sanctions means for oil markets. The potential return of Iranian supplies is not expected to […]
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28.05.21
Oxford Energy Podcast – Quarterly Gas Review-Issue 13
As weather caused a surge in gas demand across the northern hemisphere in Q1 2021, LNG cargoes were diverted to NE Asia and European storage stocks were rapidly drawn down to balance the global market. This depleted the substantial stocks that had accumulated over the past two mild winters. Looking forward, the TTF forward curve, […]
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05.05.21
OIES Oil Monthly – Issue 4
The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly including our latest short-term oil market outlook is now available. In this month’s featured In Focus piece, Bassam Fattouh and Andreas Economou argue that as in previous cycles, US shale will remain a key factor shaping market outcomes. The US shale response has been sharp and fast during […]
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20.04.21
Oxford Energy Podcast – Hydrogen in Europe
The EU and a number of its member states have now published hydrogen strategies and Europe continues to lead the way in the decarbonisation of its gas sector. In this latest OIES Energy Podcast James Henderson talks with Martin Lambert and Simon Schulte about their latest paper entitled “Contrasting European Hydrogen Pathways” which examines the […]
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07.04.21
OIES Oil Monthly – Issue 3
The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly including our latest short-term oil market outlook is now available. In this month’s featured In Focus piece, Bassam Fattouh and Andreas Economou argue that while oil market dynamics and prices have markedly improved, the degree of uncertainty surrounding the outlook remains high. Following a challenging year, OPEC+ policy […]
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18.03.21
Oxford Energy Podcast – Lessons from a strategy of energy dominance
Energy dominance – which includes increased production, reduced regulation, and enhanced energy trade – is the more assertive progeny of energy independence, a key long-time goal of US energy policy. In this podcast, David Ledesma talks to Sarah Ladislaw, Senior Vice President and Director of the Energy Security and Climate Change Program at CSIS about […]
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03.03.21
OIES Oil Monthly – Issue 2
The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly including our latest short-term oil market outlook is now available. In this month’s featured In Focus piece, Michal Meidan argues that although China’s oil demand seemed off to a shaky start in 2021 with new COVID infections limiting travel during the New Lunar Year, solid economic momentum, new […]
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OIES
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03.02.21
OIES Oil Monthly – Issue 1
The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) is very pleased to publish the first issue of its new Oil Monthly. The OIES Oil Monthly contains our short-term oil market outlook including oil price forecasts, the balance of risks surrounding the price forecasts, supply and demand trends and the global oil balance expanding to 2022 based […]
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28.01.21
Oxford Energy Podcast – Quarterly Gas Review – Ten Key Themes for 2021
In this podcast David Ledesma discusses with Jim Henderson, Director of the Natural Gas Programme, the key messages from the recently published Quarterly Gas Review. Following a summary of the key market messages since the previous quarterly publication in October 2020 the podcast focusses on the OIES Natural Gas Programme key themes for 2021, set […]
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21.01.21
Oxford Energy Podcast – China: Lessons from 2020 and Outlook 2021
Despite the COVID-19 shock, China is likely to be the only major economy to have expanded in 2020. The strong rebound in economic activity, bolstered mainly by infrastructure investments, has been fossil fuel intensive, supporting global oil and LNG markets. The strength of the recovery was such that the country suffered from power and gas […]
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20.01.21
Quarterly Gas Review – Issue 12
In this first OIES Gas Quarterly of 2021 we provide our usual review of global gas prices but more importantly highlight 10 key themes that we believe will be important in shaping the outlook for the global gas sector over the next 12 months. We provide an outlook for gas balances this year, with a […]
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OIES
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12.01.21
Oxford Energy Podcast – SE Europe Gas Markets
In this podcast James Henderson talks with Julian Bowden about the progress of gas markets in SE Europe. After a number of years when activity towards developing regional infrastructure has been negligible, a number of factors have come together to accelerate progress. Julian discusses his recent research on the region and outlines how the arrival […]
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26.11.20
Oxford Energy Podcast – Oil Market Recovery and the Balance of Risks
The oil price continues to shrug off many of the downside risks and Brent remains well supported, breaking out from the $40-$45/barrel price range and recently trading above $48/barrel. This is remarkable considering the mix of bearish factors (renewed mobility restrictions and lockdowns, the return of Libyan barrels, easing of China’s imports, the potential return […]
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OIES
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26.10.20
Oxford Energy Podcast – Glimpses of the future electricity system?
In this podcast, David Ledesma talks to Malcolm Keay and David Robinson who discuss their new OIES paper on recent “glimpses” of what the future electricity system may bring, notably the rise of intermittent solar PV and wind energy as a share of total electricity generation. They reflect on these glimpses – which were visible […]
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19.10.20
Quarterly Gas Review – Issue 11
This latest Gas Quarterly provides our regular review of price trends in the natural gas and LNG markets, and notes a significant change in the relationship between prices in North America, Europe and Asia. In the main articles we look at Russia’s declining market share in Turkey as Gazprom faces increasing competition from LNG and […]
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OIES
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23.09.20
Oxford Energy Podcast – Emerging Asia LNG Demand
In this podcast James Henderson discusses a new OIES paper on LNG demand in 10 emerging Asian countries with the main authors Mike Fulwood and Martin Lambert. They cover the key drivers for LNG demand across the region, focussing mainly on the power sector, while also looking at the impact of declining indigenous production on […]
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08.09.20
Oxford Energy Forum – Electricity Networks in a Net-Zero-Carbon Economy – Issue 124
This issue of Oxford Energy Forum (OEF) is dedicated to electricity networks. Over the last decade, decarbonization, decentralization and digitalization (3D) have transformed the electricity system. Within this changing environment electricity networks are required to remain stable and secure while additionally facilitating net-zero-carbon policies. The increased level of low-carbon heating/cooling and transport along with changes […]
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05.08.20
Oxford Energy Podcast – The oil demand shock and benchmarks
The oil demand shock, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, placed markets and benchmarks under considerable stress. Both the physical and financial market infrastructure were tested and stretched, but it then adapted, with physical differentials and freight rates allowing crude to flow from surplus areas to demand centres. In the process, however, WTI turned negative, the […]
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22.07.20
Oxford Energy Podcast – Quarterly Gas Review
In this latest OIES Podcast James Henderson discusses the July Quarterly Gas Review with Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples. They review the impact of COVID 19 on global gas markets by examining various key indicators and also by updating our global gas model and extending the range of our forecasts to 2025. After a look […]
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10.07.20
Oxford Energy Podcast – Current direction for renewable energy in China
As China sets out its post COVID-19 recovery package, it is looking to ‘new infrastructure’ and ‘new urbanisation’ to economic growth and foster indigenous innovation. While these have long been tenets of the government’s economic rebalancing agenda, they have gained additional urgency as fears of a potential technological decoupling with the US rise. There is […]
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26.06.20
Oxford Energy Podcast – Is there hope for improved intra-MENA gas trade?
Over the last three decades several studies were conducted on the elusive development of regional or sub-regional natural gas networks to boost natural gas exchanges within the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. However, due to commercial and non-commercial factors, this regional or sub-regional trade remains quite limited. In this podcast David Ledesma interviews […]
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10.06.20
Oxford Energy Podcast – Russia-Poland gas relationship
In this podcast James Henderson talks with Vitaly Yermakov about his new paper on the Russia-Poland gas relationship and its changing dynamics. It discusses the evolution of the Russia-Poland gas relationship, identifies the problems that have emerged, and assesses the opportunities and the risks for both sides stemming from the end of the long-term transit […]
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22.05.20
Oxford Energy Podcast – Central Asian Gas
In this podcast, David Ledesma discusses the prospects for Central Asian natural gas production and exports in the 2020s with Simon Pirani, Senior Research Fellow at OIES, who has just published a research paper on this subject. Central Asian exports to China were 47 bcm in 2018, compared with 16 bcm to Russia. Exports to […]
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19.05.20
Oxford Energy Podcast – Impact of COVID-19 on Global Gas Markets
In this podcast David Ledesma discusses with James Henderson, Jonathan Stern and Mike Fulwood the OIES’s latest Quarterly Report on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the consequent global economic crisis on the global gas market. They examine the link between gas demand and GDP overall, before discussing the immediate impact of the crisis […]
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15.05.20
Oxford Energy Podcast – Oil Benchmarks Under Stress
In this podcast Bassam Fattouh and Adi Imsirovic discuss with David Ledesma the effects of the demand shock on oil benchmarks. The sharp contraction in demand has stressed the oil markets to the core causing massive oversupply which has quickly overwhelmed available storage. These have exposed the weaknesses in some benchmarks and the widened divide […]
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14.05.20
Oxford Energy Podcast – Decarbonisation Pathways for Oil and Gas
Decarbonisation of oil and gas – is it still a relevant topic when the business environment is changing so quickly, oil and gas companies are focusing on how to survive yet another extreme price cycle and governments all over the world grapple with one of the most severe economic crises? Nevertheless, the issue of transition […]
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04.05.20
Oxford Energy Podcast – China’s rocky road to recovery
In this podcast, David Ledesma talks to Michal Meidan, Director of the China Energy Research Programme at the Institute, following the publication of her OIES Comment, “China’s rocky road to recovery”, which looks at China’s oil demand growth this year. The podcast also addresses some emerging trends in China’s natural gas market and discusses the […]
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01.05.20
Oxford Energy Podcast – A double-edged sword for India’s energy sector?
In this podcast, David Ledesma talks to Anupama Sen, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute, to discuss her recently published OIES Comment, “A Double Edged Sword for India’s Energy Sector?”, which looks at the implications of the coronavirus pandemic for India’s energy sector. Like several countries before it, on 25 March India’s 1.3 billion population […]
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14.02.20
Oxford Energy Podcast – When China sneezes…
In this podcast, Michal Meidan, director of the China Energy Research Programme at OIES discusses the implications of the coronavirus outbreak for China’s oil, gas and chemicals demand, based on two recent publications. While there are still numerous uncertainties regarding the coronavirus outbreak and therefore its impact on energy demand, the travel restrictions and quarantines […]
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12.02.20
Oxford Energy Podcast – Canadian LNG Competitiveness
In this podcast, David Ledesma talks with Peter Findlay, OIES Research Associate, about what makes Canada competitive and uncompetitive for further LNG development. In the first half of the past decade, Canada was a hotspot for LNG proponents — over 20 liquefaction projects were proposed, primarily off Canada’s West Coast in the province of British […]
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25.11.19
Oxford Energy Podcast – Russian LNG: Becoming a Global Force
In this latest OIES podcast David Ledesma discusses the prospects for the Russian LNG industry with James Henderson, who recently co-authored a paper on the subject with Vitaly Yermakov. Following the successful launch of the Yamal LNG project the Russian government has great plans for the further development of the country’s LNG sector, led primarily by Novatek […]
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08.11.19
Oxford Energy Podcast – The great Dutch gas transition
In this podcast David Ledesma speaks with veteran energy journalist Karel Beckman, who writes a weekly column on gas transitions for Natural Gas World, about one of the most surprising turnarounds in modern energy history: the decision by the Dutch government to phase out the production of gas within the next few years and consumption […]
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30.10.19
Oxford Energy Podcast – Short- medium- and long-term outlook for LNG
In this podcast, David Ledesma discusses with Mike Fulwood, Senior Research Fellow at the OIES, the short- medium- and long-term outlook for LNG. Imports into Europe surged from late 2018 as supply increased and Asian demand growth stalled. The oversupply looks set to continue through to early 2021 before the market tightens again as export […]
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08.07.19
Oxford Energy Podcast – The Limit of Auctions
The deployment of auctions in electricity systems has been spreading rapidly in many countries across the world to the extent that it may be regarded as normal practice in some contexts – such as the procurement of new conventional generation capacity and renewable energy sources – and that further extensions into other areas – like […]
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21.06.19
Oxford Energy Forum – Economic Diversification in the MENA – Issue 118
This issue of the Oxford Energy Forum focuses on Economic Diversification in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Diversification efforts in MENA (particularly GCC) countries obviously correlate with international oil prices. Economic logic favours specialization over diversification—individuals and enterprises should concentrate on what they can do best and where they have a comparative advantage. […]
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14.05.19
Oxford Energy Podcast – Natural Gas Vehicles: are they running out of road?
The number of natural gas vehicles (NGVs) worldwide continues to grow though there are major differences between countries both in terms of levels of penetration and underlying drivers. NGVs have some environmental advantages over petroleum-based fuels – particularly if biomethane is available – and, in many markets, are cheaper. However, the prospects for NGVs in […]
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08.04.19
Oxford Energy Podcast – Russian Gas Export Strategy
In this latest Oxford Energy Podcast James Henderson, Director of the Natural Gas Programme at OIES is in conversation with Tatiana Mitrova, the Head of the Energy Centre at the Skolkovo Management Centre in Moscow and a Senior Research Fellow at OIES. They discuss a number of issues concerning Russian gas export strategy, including gas […]
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18.03.19
Oxford Energy Podcast – Shell’s LNG Outlook 2019
In this Oxford Energy podcast James Henderson, Director of the Natural Gas Programme at OIES, and Jeff Edwards, General Manager at Shell Energy responsible for global LNG market analysis, discuss Shell’s LNG Outlook 2019. The Outlook provides a consensus view of key trends in the LNG industry, and as a result the podcast addresses a […]
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07.02.19
Electricity, Electric Vehicles, and Public Policy: Eight Key Takeaways
The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies held its second workshop on the impact of disruptive change in the transport sector, titled ‘Electricity, Electric Vehicles and Public Policy’. Participants included experts from the electricity, oil, auto, mobility, finance and technology sectors. The workshop focused on investigating the prospects for deep EV penetration. The focus was on […]
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OIES
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18.01.19
Oxford Energy Podcast – LNG Plant Cost Reductions 2014–18
During this podcast David Ledesma discusses with Brian Songhurst the key aspects covered in Brian’s recent paper ‘LNG Plant Cost Reduction 2014-2018’. The discussion opens with the reasons for the paper and an overview of how costs have fallen since the highs of the Australian projects to ensure LNG remains a competitive fuel. The challenges faced in preparing the paper are discussed including […]
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07.12.18
Oxford Energy Podcast – Current Trends in the US Shale Oil Industry
James Henderson and Trisha Curtis, the CEO and founder of PetroNerds and a visiting fellow at OIES, discuss her forthcoming paper on current trends in the US shale oil industry. Following recent industry concerns that productivity and well performance might be set to undermine the future production outlook, Trisha outlines her view that in fact […]
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05.12.18
Oxford Energy Podcast – LNG and Australia’s East Coast gas market
In 2017, a gas crisis emerged in Australia’s East Coast gas market. Gas prices had increased rapidly from mid-2016 as the full effect of the three LNG projects starting operations on Curtis Island worked through the gas market, putting domestic energy users under pressure. In March 2017, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) forecast gas […]
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13.11.18
Oxford Energy Podcast – Russia’s gas supply surplus
In this latest Oxford Energy podcast James Henderson and Vitaly Yermakov discuss Vitaly’s forthcoming paper on Russia’s gas supply surplus. It has been widely documented that Gazprom has had 100bcm or more spare gas for potential export to Europe, but recent increases in production have reduced this figure. In addition, Vitaly outlines his concern that, […]
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01.10.18
Oxford Energy Podcast – Is Egypt undergoing a natural gas renaissance?
Over the last four years, major and rapid developments have been taking place in Egypt’s natural gas market to reverse the country’s indigenous gas production decline and manage its unabated gas demand growth. In this podcast David Ledesma interviews Mostefa Ouki, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute, to discuss the Egyptian gas market. During the […]
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24.09.18
Oxford Energy Forum – The Future of Gas – Issue 116
This issue of the Oxford Energy Forum looks at the future of gas from different perspectives. Future development of decarbonised gases – biogas, biomethane and hydrogen – and the consequences for gas networks. The importance of reducing methane emissions from the gas chain. Progress towards reducing the costs of liquefaction and the affordability of gas […]
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10.09.18
Oxford Energy Forum – Electrifying Africa – Issue 115
This issue of the Oxford Energy Forum focuses on the electrification of Africa, especially sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Due to significant expected population growth, the number of Africans without electricity access in 2030 may not fall much from today’s level of about 600 million, which is about 60 per cent of the world’s current population without […]
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29.06.18
Oxford Energy Podcast – The rise of renewables and energy transition
The energy landscape is changing rapidly with far-reaching implications for global energy industries and actors, including oil companies and oil-exporting countries. A key issue facing oil companies and oil-exporting countries is how they should now position themselves and how best to be part of the renewables ‘revolution’. In this podcast David Ledesma interviews Rob West, […]
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01.05.18
Oxford Energy Forum – Oil Benchmarks – Issue 113
This issue of the Oxford Energy Forum is devoted to analysing the role of oil benchmarks, their evolution over time, the challenges facing the most established benchmarks, and the extent to which the current transformations in oil market fundamentals and crude trade flows as well as changes in the regulatory environment are likely to result […]
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18.04.18
Oxford Energy Forum – Disruptive Change in the Transport Sector – Issue 112
This issue of the Oxford Energy Forum is devoted to investigating disruptive change in the transport sector. There are three forces shaping or disrupting the road transport sector, namely: autonomous vehicles, transport electrification, and shared mobility. The interactions between the three will determine the future of energy use in transport. The determinants of these three […]
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22.03.18
Oxford Energy Podcast
After a volatile 12 months for LNG freight rates, James Henderson, Director of the OIES Gas Programme, and Howard Rogers, the Programmes Chairman, discuss Howard’s recent paper ‘The LNG Shipping Forecast’. Their conversation ranges from a review of the recent trends in LNG shipping rates to a debate about Howard’s new model for shipping costs […]
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12.03.18
Oxford Energy Podcast
In this Oxford Energy Podcast David Ledesma interviews Anouk Honore, Senior Research Fellow at the OIES, about the current challenges taking place in gas supply from the Dutch Groningen gas field. The interview discusses the recent earthquakes in the Groningen area of the Netherlands and their impact on the gas production caps on Dutch gas […]
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05.02.18
Oxford Energy Podcast
In this Oxford Energy Podcast David Ledesma interviews James Henderson, the Director of the Gas Programme at OIES, about his recent paper on developments at the Gas Exchange in St. Petersburg. Written in collaboration with Tatiana Mitrova at the Skolkovo Energy Centre in Moscow, the paper looks at the history of gas trading in Russia, […]
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17.01.18
Disruptive Change in the Transport Sector – Eight Key Takeaways
The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies held a Workshop – the first of a series – on ‘Disruptive Change in the Transport Sector’ in relation to its impact on energy use in private transport. Participants included experts from the energy, auto, mobility, and technology sectors. This document summarises eight key takeaways from the Workshop discussions: Despite many government announcements […]
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03.01.18
Oxford Energy Podcast
In this fourth OIES Energy Podcast Jonathan Stern discusses his latest paper on the future of gas in the global energy economy, entitled “Challenges to the Future of Gas: unburnable or unaffordable?”. In conversation with David Ledesma, Professor Stern reviews his hypothesis that while the gas industry needs to have a decarbonisation strategy if it […]
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12.12.17
Oxford Energy Podcast
Tricia Curtis, a research associate at OIES and founder of consultancy Petronerds, discusses the recent trends in US shale oil production, based on her recent paper for OIES. Tricia reviews the key basins for shale oil production and assesses the impact of technological developments on the productivity of new wells. She reviews the potential for […]
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21.11.17
Oxford Energy Podcast
Michal Meidan, a research associate at OIES and leading China analyst at Energy Aspects, discusses the current state of the Chinese gas market and the prospects for future growth. The recent rebound in LNG demand in China and the renewed government focus on air quality and the environment has encouraged a more positive view of […]
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26.10.17
Oxford Energy Podcast
In the first of our OIES Energy Podcast series David Ledesma interviews Tatiana Mitrova, an OIES Visiting Research Fellow, on the topic of Russian Gas. They discuss Gazprom’s export strategy, the current state of the domestic market in Russia, the politics of Russian gas in Europe and the potential impact of Russian gas on the […]
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15.08.17
Oxford Energy Forum – Mexican Energy Reforms – Issue 109
This issue of the Oxford Energy Forum is devoted to Mexico’s recent energy sector reforms. The reforms were designed to open up the country’s energy sector to international and local private players, inject competition, provide new partnering opportunities for PEMEX, establish new markets domestically, and potentially strengthen Mexico as a key link between the American […]
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19.04.17
Oxford Energy Forum – MENA Energy Pricing Reforms – Issue 108
It has been nearly three years since the collapse in global oil prices and there have been mixed outcomes for countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). While some countries (which had already initiated reforms) benefited from the low oil price, in others it triggered a spate of pricing reforms following fiscal crises. […]
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28.06.16
Oxford Energy Forum – Issue, 105
This issue of Oxford Energy Forum (OEF) looks at the Paris Agreement (which came out of COP21 – the 21st Conference of Parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) along with its implications for individual energy sources, for particular countries and regions, and for specific policy areas. Perhaps most striking is the […]
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21.03.16
Oxford Energy Forum – Issue, 104
Transformation of the Electricity Sector: Technology, Policy and Business Models Electricity is in ferment – an unusual state for an industry which has traditionally been used to enjoying the stability of long term assets, steadily growing demand and secure revenues. But these secure foundations are now coming into question as the industry faces major technological, economic […]
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16.12.15
Oxford Energy Forum – Special Issue, 103
Energy trading in Europe is on the verge of a fundamental transformation. The implementation of a host of new regulations: the European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR),
the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID), the Markets in Financial Instruments Regulation (MiFIR), the Market Abuse Regulation (MAR), the Capital Requirements Regulation (CRR), and the Capital Requirements Directive IV […]
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23.11.15
Oxford Energy Forum – Issue, 102
While the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) continues to play a pivotal role as the world’s supplier of oil and, to a lesser extent gas, the collapse in global oil prices since mid-2014 has refocused the debate on the region’s ability to use oil revenues to build sustainable and diversified economies that can one […]
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28.09.15
Oxford Energy Forum – Issue, 101
This issue of the Oxford Energy Forum is dedicated to gas pricing. A mild 2013/14 winter in Europe and parts of Asia and a slowing of demand growth for LNG saw European hub prices and LNG spot prices begin to fall through the summer of 2014. The collapse of the oil price in late 2014 […]
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08.06.15
Oxford Energy Forum – Issue, 100
This special issue of the Forum is dedicated to Robert Mabro who founded the Oxford Energy Policy Club in 1976, the Oxford Energy Seminar in 1979, and the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies in 1982. In this issue of the Oxford Energy Forum, Robert’s colleagues and friends reflect on the man and his work and […]
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26.03.15
The US Shale Gas Revolution and its Impact on Qatar’s Position in Gas Markets
Released today by the Center on Global Energy Policy The US Shale Gas Revolution and its Impact on Qatar’s Position in Gas Markets is a collaborative study between CGEP, Columbia and the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies that examines how Qatar may be impacted by major changes to the global LNG market. The expansion of […]
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09.03.15
Oxford Energy Forum – Issue, 99
This issue of the Oxford Energy Forum is dedicated to Energy in India. Set against the landscape of an uncertain international energy market and a potential slowing of China’s economic growth, the Indian economy stands poised as a hopeful prospect (the IMF forecasts growth of 6.3 per cent in 2015) in an otherwise unsteady global […]
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12.01.15
Oxford Energy Forum – Issue, 98
Latin America is once again on the radar of the international and regional oil and gas industry, service companies, and policy makers. Secular changes in the petroleum investment risk profile of major oil and gas hubs such as Russia, North Africa, West Africa, and the Middle East, limited access to acreage in the traditional producing […]
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22.09.14
Oxford Energy Forum – Issue, 97
Energy in Russia, the subject of this issue of the Oxford Energy Forum, has this year returned to the forefront of debates among academics, policy makers, and those in the industry. Politics, never far from these debates, is a factor: as a result of events in Ukraine, the tension between Russia and the western powers […]
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16.06.14
Oxford Energy Forum – Issue, 96
Oil has defined the modern-day development of the Gulf region in a
way seen in no other place in the world; together, the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, are home to around a third of known global reserves of oil, and nearly […]
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27.03.12
Issue 87, February 2012
Oil Price Benchmarks in International Trade by Jorge Montepeque, Liz Bossley, Christophe Barret, Peter Stewart, Mike Davis, Bassam Fattouh, Amrita Sen, Peter Caddy, Giacomo Luciani, Salvatore Carollo
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31.01.12
Issue 86, November 2011
Technological Challenges and Developments by Ivan Sandrea, David Bamford, Petrobras and Boston Consulting Group, Michelle Michot Foss, Trisha Curtis, Samer Ashgar, Robert G. Skinner, Franz B. Ehrhardt, Tara Shirvani and Oliver R. Inderwildi.
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07.12.11
Oil and International Energy Markets
Several members of OIES contributed articles to, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Volume 27, Issue 1, Spring 2011, edited by Christopher Allsopp and Bassam Fattouh. Each issue concentrates on a current theme in economic policy, with a balance between macro- and microeconomics, giving a valuable appraisal of economic policies worldwide. Volume 27, Issue 1, focuses […]
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04.10.11
Issue 85, August 2011
Nuclear Energy post Fuklushima Malcolm Grimston Gordon Mackerron Malcolm Keay Interconnecting the GCC States Laura El-Katiri Oil and Gas Resources Bassam Fattouh James Henderson Juan Carlos Boue
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OIES
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18.05.11
Issue 84, May 2011
Political Events in the Middle East and their Impact on Energy Robert Mabro, Helima L. Croft and Amrita Sen.Hakim Darbouche. John Hamilton and Emma Murphy WTI and Brent Benchmarks Edward L. Morse, Bob Levin Twenty Years of Producer–Consumer Dialogue Bassam Fattouh and Coby van der Linde
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OIES
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31.08.10
Issue 82, August 2010
The Uproar Surrounding Petroleum Contract Renegotiations George Kahale, III An Anatomy of the Oil Pricing Regime Bassam Fattouh The Balance between Long- and Short-term LNG Suppliesin the European Gas Industry Axel M Wietfeld Gas-to-power in North Africa: Implications for gas exports and supply Hakim Darbouche
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OIES
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17.05.10
Issue 81 May 2010
Energy Poverty Robert Bacon, Suleiman J. Al-Herbish The Credit Crunch and International Energy Markets Christopher Allsopp Gas Matters Stephen Bell, Armelle Lecarpentier Reforming UK Electricity Markets John Rhys
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OIES
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17.02.10
Issue 80 February 2010
Copenhagen: A Partial or a Significant Success? Benito Müller, Marianne Haug Global Oil Demand Dynamics: Rebalancing the Debate Bassam Fattouh On Oil Peak or Peaks? Robert Mabro Oil Price and the Animal Spirits: Implications for the Oil Industry Leadership Edgar Jones Does the Electric Car have a Future? David Robinson, François Badin
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OIES
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17.11.09
Issue 79 November 2009
Oil Price Volatility Bassam Fattouh and Paul Segal, Robert Mabro Problems of Oil Production Lars Erik Aamot, Shamil Midkhatovich Yenikeyeff European Natural Gas Prices Howard Rogers Solar Energy Malcolm Keay, Till Stenzel
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OIES
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17.08.09
Issue 78 August 2009
Obama’s Energy Policy Joseph A. Stanislaw, Richard Matzke, David Robinson How Resource Revenues can Halve Global Poverty Paul Segal Will a Crude Oil Price Band Stabilise the Market? Bassam Fattouh Wind Power John Constable and Hideaki Aoyama, Malcolm Keay
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OIES
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17.05.09
Issue 77 May 2009
The Effects of Low Prices on Oil and Gas Investments Edward L. Morse, Pedro Haas and Greg Terzian, Ali Aissaoui The Oil Price Crisis of 1998-9 and 2008-9 Robert Mabro Energy RD&D: a much needed clean tech stimulus Marianne Haug Venezuelan Oil Production Data Juan Carlos Boué
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OIES
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17.02.09
Issue 76 February 2009
European Union Energy Policy David Buchan, Giacomo Luciani Features of Recent Oil Developments Paul Horsnell and Costanza Jacazio, Ivan Sandrea, Bassam Fattouh LNG Trading: Overview and Challenges Alex Wietfeld and Niels Fenzl
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17.09.08
Issue 74 September 2008
Limits and Possibilities of US Energy Policy Malcolm Keay, Jerome E. Roos, Jim Arrowsmith The Oil Price Conundrum Robert E. Mabro The Oil-Climate Bargain Peter Fox-Penner and Matthew McCaffree Personal Comment Mark Moody-Stuart
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OIES
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17.05.08
Issue 73 May 2008
Oil in Africa Jean-Pierre Favennec, Bassam Fattouh, Walid Khadduri, Philippe Copinschi, Gerald Doucet and Latsoucabé Fall US Presidential Candidates and Energy Michael Lynch Comments on Gas Demand, Contrasts and Prices James T. Jensen
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OIES
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17.02.08
Issue 72 February 2008
Gas and Transitional Fuel Jonathan Stern, Michael Stoppard, Burckhard Bergmann, Thierry Bros, Simon Pirani Assessments of Bali 2007 Benito Mueller, David Robinson Personal Commentary Nader Sultan
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OIES
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17.11.07
Issue 71 November 2007
Security of Supply Paul Isbell, John Gault, William C. Ramsay, Hasan M. Qabazard The Dynamics of Oil and Price Determination Paul Horsnell Letter and Comment Paul Newman, Robert Dudley Environment and Climate Change Simon Caney, Benito Mueller, Robert Ritz, Paul Newman, Liz Bossley
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OIES
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17.09.07
Issue 70 September 2007
Access to Oil Reserves Robert Mabro, Nordine Ait Laoussine, Michael Daly, Patrick Poyanne Angola’s Entry in OPEC: a win-win move? Sadek Boussena The Battle of the Sour Futures Contracts Bassam Fattouh Venezuelan Oil – The Unfulfilled Promise Luis A. Pacheco
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OIES
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17.05.07
Issue 69 May 2007
Oil and Gas Developments in some American Countries Adrian Lajous, Rogerio Manso, Ivan Sandrea, Anouk Honoré China in Africa Lindsey Hilsum, Bassam Fattouh
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17.02.07
Issue 68 February 2007
Nuclear Energy Alain Bucaille, Adnan Shihab-Eldin, Pierre-René Bauquis Climate Change, a Global Problem, is a Global Solution Possible? Peter Nichols The Oil Price Regime, Bassam Fattouh, Robert Mabro The Re-emergence of Ethanol Fuel in Brazil Eduardo Luiz Correia
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OIES
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17.11.06
Issue 67 November 2006
Energy Policy John Mitchell, Terra Allas, Peter Odell, Olivier Appert Energy in Flux Joseph Stanislaw US Environment Policy in states vs. the States David Fridley, Benito Müller Personal Commentary Adrian Lajous
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17.08.06
Issue 66 August 2006
Is Russia a Threat to Energy Supplies? Jonathan Stern, Giacomo Luciani, Shamil Midkhatovich Yenikeyeff The UK Energy Review and Nuclear Power Charles Henderson The Geopolitical Causes of High Oil Prices Walid Khadduri, Eric Rouleau, Philippe Copinschi, Anouk Honoré Why is the Macroeconomic Impact of Oil Prices Different this Time? Christopher Allsopp
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OIES
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17.06.06
Issue 65 June 2006
The International Oil Companies Richard Gordon, Chriss Ross and Lane Sloan, Ged Davis Gas Prices in the uk : Markets and Insecurity of Supply Philip Wright The Engineering Procurement Construction Industry Malcolm Harrison The Gas Exporting Countries Forum and Europe Hadi Hallouche Some Farewell Comments Ian Skeet Personal Commentary Derek Riley
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OIES
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17.02.06
Issue 64 February 2006
Economic Implications of the Oil Price Increase Roger Van Noorden, Hassan Hakimian, Walid Khadduri Environmental Issues Malcolm Keay and Benito Muller The Role of Technology in reducing E&P Costs Mark Andersen The Strategies of non-OECD Gas Producers Hadi Hallouche, Michael Tamvakis, Bryan Train Personal Commentary Charles Henderson
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OIES
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17.11.05
Issue 63 November 2005
Upstream Taxation Alex Kemp, Pedro Van Meurs, Robert Arnott US Energy Policy Act of 2005 Shirley Neff and Amy Meyers Jaffe The Future of Russian Gas and Gazprom Jonathan Stern Too Many ‘Perfect Storms’ Robert Skinner Personal Commentary John Mitchell
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17.08.05
Issue 62 August 2005
Refining and Price Franz Ehrhardt, Douglas Terreson, Marshall Hall Impact of the Power Generation Sector on Future European Gas Demand Anouk Honore Oil Prices and Fundamentals Katherine Spector, David Long, Paul Horsnell [You can download the Paul Horsnell article here] Personal Commentary Julian West
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17.05.05
Issue 61 May 2005
Nuclear Energy David Waller and Alan McDonald, Judith Greenwald, Paul Mobbs Indian Gas Supply: Elixir for Growth or Priced out of Reach Chris Hansen Oil Production Expectations outside the Middle East Andrew Hayman and Ivan Sandrea Personal Commentary Whalid Khadduri
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OIES
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17.02.05
Issue 60 February 2005
Energy Policy: Old Baggage John Mitchell Technology and Energy – 21st Century Outlook Bernard J. Bulkin OPEC and the 21st Century. What has Changed and what have we Learnt? Pedro Antonio Merino Garcia The Private Oil Companies: From Consolidation to Growth Robert Arnott What Role Derivatives? Paul Newman Multilateral Energy Co-operation in Northeast Asia : […]
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OIES
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17.11.04
Issue 59 November 2004
Investment in LNG David Ledesma, Ben Smith, Julia Richardson & John Burnes Jr Investment in Power Generation Lindsay Tuthill John Bower Mark Lijesen and Gijsbert Zwart Personal Commentary Philip J. Carroll
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16.08.04
Issue 58 August 2004
Why Oil Prices Have Moved Higher Paul Horsnell Gas to Liquids Howard Bevan, Johann Van Rheede, Bipin Patel Why Oil Prices Have Moved Higher Paul Horsnell The Value of Oil and Gas Reserves – SEC Definitions Peter Nicol, Brian Rhodes and Andy Crouch Personal Commentary Peter Odell
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01.02.04
Blackouts: Invest, Intervene or Inveigh?
U.S. and EU federal authorities have wrongly concluded that lack of investment is causing transmission congestion and threatening system security in liberalised electricity markets. This perception has unfortunately been reinforced by the blackouts of summer 2003.
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OIES
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01.01.86
The Brent Market: An Analysis of Recent Developments
The recent history of the informal market f o r North Sea Brent blend has been of great interest to those studying commodity markets in general and the oil market in particular . Two aspects of this market gives it this important position. First, the very rapid growth inactivity in the Brent market means that […]
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OIES
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16.04.24
OIES Oil Monthly – Issue 33
The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2025, is now available. – Tighter-than-expected balances compounded by heightened geopolitical risks have prompted us to raise our Brent price forecast by $2.5/b to $85.4/b in 2024 and by $1.6/b to $81.0/b in 2025. Our Brent price forecast revisions this […]
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OIES
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13.03.24
OIES Oil Monthly – Issue 32
The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, including our latest short-term oil market outlook to 2025, is now available. – Extended OPEC+ cuts and robust non-OECD demand have prompted a rise in our Brent price forecast in 2024 to $82.9/b from $82.1/b, while the 2025 view is steady at $79.4/b. Downside revisions to our supply […]
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OIES
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14.02.24
OIES Oil Monthly – Issue 31
The new issue of OIES Oil Monthly, introducing our first oil market outlook for 2025, is now available. – Our Brent price forecast stands at $82.1/b in 2024, from $82.6/b in 2023, falling to $79.1/b in 2025. We continue to forecast a balanced market this year prompting us to maintain our Brent price forecast unchanged […]
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OIES
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