Nikolai Drahos

Visiting Research Fellow

Nikolai Drahos is a senior economist at the Office of the Chief Economist in the Australian Department of Industry, Innovation and Science. His work focuses on Australia’s domestic gas market, global LNG markets and resources and energy forecasting. Nikolai holds a Bachelor of Arts (Honours) and a Graduate Diploma in Economics from the Australian National University, where he is currently undertaking a Master of Environmental and Resource Economics. He is a co-author of the OIES paper Prices and crisis – LNG and Australia’s East Coast gas market and the Department of Industry, Innovation and Science’s Resources and Energy Quarterly.

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                    [post_content] => LNG spot prices in Asia have defied expectations over the past few years. During 2016 and 2017, LNG markets were widely expected to enter a period of overcapacity, resulting in a long period of low LNG spot prices in Asia. Instead, Asian LNG spot prices increased quickly due to surging demand, particularly in China, and delays in bringing new LNG projects online. In 2018, fears of overcapacity began to recede as LNG prices climbed further, and discussion turned to the potential for a future supply crunch. However, by the time of writing in early April 2019, LNG spot prices in Asia had surprised again, having fallen rapidly to record lows. Against this backdrop, this paper evaluates the accuracy of using the Asian LNG futures price — the current price of LNG for delivery at a specified future date — to forecast the Asian LNG spot price.
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                    [post_content] => In 2017, a gas crisis emerged in Australia’s East Coast gas market. Gas prices had increased rapidly from mid-2016 as the full effect of the three LNG projects starting operations on Curtis Island worked through the gas market, putting domestic energy users under pressure. In March 2017, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) forecast gas shortages in coming years, potentially leading to blackouts and industrial closures. While gas shortages are no longer forecast, challenges in the East Coast gas market remain. This paper examines recent events in Australia’s East Coast gas market, the challenges ahead, and the relevance of these developments for other countries.
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Latest Publications by Nikolai Drahos