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[post_content] => The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the natural gas trade, inter alia, continues to be felt well beyond Europe’s borders. As the accelerated decarbonisation of the world’s economies is being pushed forward, Europe’s unexpected interest in alternative sources of gas imports to replace Russian gas has triggered a temporary wave of political enthusiasm for African gas.
In Africa, where attracting investments in hydrocarbon projects was complicated even before the rise of investment restrictions due to new international decarbonisation measures, such European interest in gas has been given a cautious welcome. But it also provides another opportunity for African policymakers to reiterate their deep frustration about the restricted flows of international hydrocarbon investments in Africa.
Faced with uncertain investment prospects in the energy sector which would address Africa’s persistent low level of energy access, African countries are attempting to leverage the present interest in African gas to fully monetise their natural gas resources or reserves. The potential emergence of a new global ‘golden age’ for natural gas was explored a couple of times during the last decade, but regions like Africa have yet to experience it. Could the fallout of the Russia-Ukraine war and its impact on international gas markets bring about the start of a structural change in Africa’s natural gas scene? This paper focuses on two key questions: will the natural gas crisis in Europe serve as a catalyst for wider gas developments in Africa, and what are the implications for the continent’s ‘just energy transition’?
[post_title] => Prospects for a potential African gas renaissance en route to a ‘just energy transition’
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[post_content] => Italy, one of Europe’s biggest natural gas markets, has started 2023 with a remarkably active energy diplomacy. In January, Italy’s new prime minister undertook official visits to Algeria and Libya to strengthen Italy’s energy trade relationship with its southern Mediterranean gas suppliers in North Africa. Given Italy’s large gas market, extensive gas infrastructure and its gas pipeline interconnections with Algeria and Libya, could a new Mediterranean natural gas “hub” emerge to supply North African gas not only to Italy, but also to other European energy markets?
[post_title] => Italy and its North African gas interconnections: A potential Mediterranean gas ‘hub’?
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[post_content] => The consequences of the on-going war in Ukraine continue to be a key topic of interest and concern for politicians, international organizations, journalists, and researchers. Following the decision of the European Union (EU) to significantly reduce its reliance on Russian gas supplies as formulated in its REPowerEU plan, non-Russian sources of gas imports have quickly been approached by separate EU member states to secure additional and\or new gas supplies. Africa’s natural gas reserve holders are among the first countries to be considered.
[post_title] => African gas supplies to Europe: between hopes and hard realities
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[post_content] => Africa to date has primarily been a natural gas exporting continent. It has been a source of natural gas supplies to the rest of the world for almost sixty years. But African LNG exporting sources are limited to a few subregions of Africa. Most African countries are far from being endowed with large proven natural gas reserves or could easily switch to the consumption of natural gas. In fact, some of these countries have already been importing or are planning to import gas. Interestingly all new gas import plans are focused on LNG imports rather than imports through existing cross-border gas pipelines or new intra-regional gas pipeline projects.
During the last decade and until recently, over a dozen new LNG import projects were planned and proposed in Africa. However, in an era of new challenging international market conditions - persistent high gas hub price volatility and uncertainties emerging from the unavoidable energy transition towards a decarbonized world - can these same drivers continue to stimulate, slowdown or stop altogether the development of new LNG import markets in Africa? This paper explores some of the main aspects of this fundamental question of energy supply in developing economies, such as Africa’s, by focusing on the impact of these key drivers on potential African LNG imports and the lessons that could be learned for other developing countries.
[post_title] => Africa’s LNG import prospects in an era of high volatility and uncertainties
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[post_content] => Since our previous edition of the Quarterly Gas Review, the Russian build-up of troops around Ukraine’s border has erupted into a full-scale invasion. European gas prices, which were already high, surged. In response to the invasion, the European Commission and various European governments announced their intention to reduce dependency on Russian gas imports. In response, the Russian government passed new legislation, requiring Gazprom’s European counterparties to pay for their gas supplies in Roubles, rather than Euros. While it remained unclear whether or not the new payment procedure would be in breach of sanctions against Russia, several companies refused to follow the new procedure, and had their supplies cut off by Gazprom. At the same time, Gazprom effectively disowned its European subsidiaries (Gazprom Germania in particular). In this issue of the Quarterly Gas Review, we analyse the flow of Russian gas to Europe in this geopolitical context. In related sections, Mostefa Ouki and Mike Fulwood, respectively, analyse the geopolitics of Algerian gas supply to Europe and dynamics on the global LNG market, with particular focus on the extent to which they can offset lower flows from Russia.
[post_title] => Quarterly Gas Review: Issue 17
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[post_content] => Egypt has one of the largest economies in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and several of its industries are large sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. As part of its contribution to mitigate GHG emissions within the framework of the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change, Egypt is focusing on the development of an ambitious renewable energy programme.
Some of Egypt’s main industries are big consumers of hydrogen which is produced locally using indigenous natural gas without abatement of the CO2 emissions resulting from this production process. In the long-term, the production and consumption of this unabated hydrogen, known as grey hydrogen, could become a serious challenge for Egypt’s exports of manufactured products. Thus, the Egyptian government is planning to develop low carbon hydrogen alternatives and has set up an inter-ministerial committee to prepare a national hydrogen strategy for Egypt.
This paper explores the prospects for low carbon hydrogen (blue and green hydrogen) developments in Egypt, focusing on the potential replacement of Egypt’s large domestic production of grey hydrogen with cleaner low carbon hydrogen alternatives.
[post_title] => Egypt's Low Carbon Hydrogen Development Prospects
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[post_date] => 2021-09-22 11:29:37
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[post_content] => As natural gas hub prices in Europe continue their extremely bullish rally driven by buoyant global gas demand and short-term supply constraints, the last thing European markets need is a choke point emerging along the south-western Mediterranean gas supply routes. In this context, the trade press has raised concerns about a possible non-renewal of the gas transit agreement for the Maghreb Europe gas pipeline (better known by its French acronym of GME) that supplies Algerian gas to the Iberian Peninsula through Morocco and the Straits of Gibraltar. But are these concerns justified? This OIES Comment argues that in the medium- to long-term they are not.
[post_title] => Gazoduc Maghreb Europe (GME): another gas transit headache for Europe?
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[post_content] => Over the last five years, Africa’s MSGBC geological basin situated in five African countries: Mauritania, Senegal, Gambia, Guinea Bissau, and Guinea Conakry has started to attract increased interest from international oil and gas companies (IOCs). The Grand Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) gas field development project, overlapping Mauritania and Senegal’s offshore waters, is a key example. This project is a unique case of cooperation and partnership between two African countries and IOCs (BP and Kosmos Energy) in a potentially new African natural gas province.
The focus of the GTA gas development project is a floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) export project. This would make available natural gas supplies not only for exports, but also for the domestic energy markets of Mauritania and Senegal. Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the commissioning of the first phase of the GTA project, which was initially planned for 2022, has been delayed to 2023. The capacity of this Phase 1 FLNG project is about 2.5 mtpa . The subsequent phases of this LNG export project, if and when approved, are expected to potentially expand the project’s LNG export capacity to 10 mtpa. Furthermore, two other separate LNG projects with a 10 mtpa LNG capacity each are planned or under consideration in Mauritania and Senegal. This is a huge LNG export capacity for these two countries. Can these on-going and planned gas developments transform Mauritania and Senegal into a new emerging African gas province.
[post_title] => Mauritania - Senegal: an emerging new African gas province – is it still possible?
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[post_content] => Over the last three decades, several studies have been conducted into the elusive development of regional or sub-regional natural gas networks to encourage gas trade within the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. However, due to commercial and non-commercial factors, the trade of natural gas within the region or sub-regions remains either limited or non-existent. In the short to medium term, could the unprecedented multi-dimensional crisis situation of oil and gas price collapses combined with the highly damaging coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic, lead MENA gas exporters to focus more on their domestic markets? With a gas demand/price meltdown in Europe and Asia, intra-regional gas sales could be interesting to consider.
[post_title] => MENA - Could intra-regional gas trade be refocussed as a result of the ongoing global crises?
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[post_content] => Algeria is at a critical stage in its history. Since February 2019, people of all strata have been taking to the street to press for radical political changes. This will undoubtedly have far-reaching implications for the country’s future and its economy. An economy that has long been driven by the hydrocarbon sector and where oil and gas exports still account for over 95 per cent of total export revenue. Algeria’s hydrocarbon endowment is dominated by its larger natural gas reserves compared to crude oil. The country, which has been producing, consuming and exporting natural gas for several decades, has reached a point where its gas balance is facing severe challenges. A declining or, at best, stagnating natural gas production and a rapid domestic gas consumption growth have combined to constrain dangerously the country’s gas export potential. The reduction of gas export revenue has led to some government energy policy responses, including a revised hydrocarbons law (yet-to-be issued) to relaunch upstream investments in partnership with international oil and gas companies. But, actions to address the issue of subsidized domestic electricity and gas prices remain absent. There is hope, though, that this state of affairs that has lasted for decades at a very high financial cost could be addressed gradually. The reasons for a potentially fundamental policy change are mainly the fact that the Algerian economy can no longer afford this heavy financial burden and the impact of the on-going political transformation.
[post_title] => Algerian Gas in Transition: domestic transformation and changing gas export potential
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[post_content] => In 2015, Egypt became a net gas importer. This unfortunate, but not unexpected, situation was the result of a decline in Egypt’s indigenous natural gas production combined with a rapidly rising domestic gas demand driven mainly by large energy price subsidies. Major changes are presently taking place on the gas supply side which are significantly impacting the country’s natural gas balance. The Egyptian government is also carrying out energy price reform measures to reduce gas demand growth and the financial burden of price subsidies. But, without the continued implementation of consistent and integrated energy demand-side management and reform measures, Egypt could again be exposed to an unpleasant gas supply surplus/deficit cycle. The quick answer to the question posed in this paper’s title ‘Egypt – a return to a balanced gas market?’ could be: yes, but not for long. However, this short statement would not do justice to the considerable efforts deployed by all the relevant stakeholders in relaunching Egypt’s hydrocarbon sector. It would also ignore the fact that the answer is only based on current publicly available data and information on both the supply and demand sides.
[post_title] => Egypt - a return to a balanced gas market?
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[post_content] => The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the natural gas trade, inter alia, continues to be felt well beyond Europe’s borders. As the accelerated decarbonisation of the world’s economies is being pushed forward, Europe’s unexpected interest in alternative sources of gas imports to replace Russian gas has triggered a temporary wave of political enthusiasm for African gas.
In Africa, where attracting investments in hydrocarbon projects was complicated even before the rise of investment restrictions due to new international decarbonisation measures, such European interest in gas has been given a cautious welcome. But it also provides another opportunity for African policymakers to reiterate their deep frustration about the restricted flows of international hydrocarbon investments in Africa.
Faced with uncertain investment prospects in the energy sector which would address Africa’s persistent low level of energy access, African countries are attempting to leverage the present interest in African gas to fully monetise their natural gas resources or reserves. The potential emergence of a new global ‘golden age’ for natural gas was explored a couple of times during the last decade, but regions like Africa have yet to experience it. Could the fallout of the Russia-Ukraine war and its impact on international gas markets bring about the start of a structural change in Africa’s natural gas scene? This paper focuses on two key questions: will the natural gas crisis in Europe serve as a catalyst for wider gas developments in Africa, and what are the implications for the continent’s ‘just energy transition’?
[post_title] => Prospects for a potential African gas renaissance en route to a ‘just energy transition’
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18.07.22
African gas supplies to Europe: between hopes and hard realities
The consequences of the on-going war in Ukraine continue to be a key topic of interest and concern for politicians, international organizations, journalists, and researchers. Following the decision of the European Union (EU) to significantly reduce its reliance on Russian gas supplies as formulated in its REPowerEU plan, non-Russian sources of gas imports have quickly […]
By:
Mostefa Ouki
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26.05.22
Quarterly Gas Review: Issue 17
Since our previous edition of the Quarterly Gas Review, the Russian build-up of troops around Ukraine’s border has erupted into a full-scale invasion. European gas prices, which were already high, surged. In response to the invasion, the European Commission and various European governments announced their intention to reduce dependency on Russian gas imports. In response, […]
By:
Mike Fulwood
Jack Sharples
Mostefa Ouki
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13.06.18
Egypt – a return to a balanced gas market?
In 2015, Egypt became a net gas importer. This unfortunate, but not unexpected, situation was the result of a decline in Egypt’s indigenous natural gas production combined with a rapidly rising domestic gas demand driven mainly by large energy price subsidies. Major changes are presently taking place on the gas supply side which are significantly […]
By:
Mostefa Ouki
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