Michelle Michot Foss

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                    [post_content] => In this paper Michelle Foss concludes that Henry Hub gas prices could credibly be as low as $3/MMbtu, or as high as $10/MMbtu in 2020 but that the balance of likelihoods is for a price late this decade which is significantly higher than the current $3-4/MMbtu levels of 2011. Michelle Foss’ study looks at the past five years of supply, demand and pricing which have been strongly impacted by the unconventional gas –  and particularly shale gas – revolution and how different views of its evolution will impact future pricing. The study is a forensic analysis of the huge uncertainties surrounding US natural gas supply and demand which illustrates why both commentators and stakeholders have continuously failed to foresee even the approximate direction of prices, leading to the building of numerous LNG import terminals many of which now seem likely to be converted into export terminals.
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                    [post_content] => For 2005, total United States natural gas consumption as reported by the US Energy Information Administration (USEIA)2 was just below 22 Tcf3, which was about 1 Tcf less than the historic high of 23 Tcf reached in 2000. At roughly 19 Tcf, the total figure for marketed production reported by USEIA was lower than the recent high of 20.6 Tcf reached in 2001 and substantially below the all-time high of 22.6 Tcf reached in 1973. For 2006, consumption will register slightly lower and production slightly higher, continuing the essentially flat to slightly declining market conditions that have prevailed since the mid- 1990s. A perennial “gap” between domestic production and demand became a feature of the US natural gas marketplace in 1988. After jumping a new hurdle of 2.7 Tcf in 1995, the supply-demand gap has generally ranged between 2 and 3.2 Tcf every year since then, except for 2000 when it achieved its widest point, reflecting a tightening of the US natural gas balance that was ultimately expressed in a sharp spike in prices set at Henry Hub in Erath, Louisiana, the main US (and North American) trading point. A narrowing in the supplydemand gap is estimated for 2006, a reflection of softer fundamentals and a precursor to a widely expected correction in prices during 2007.
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Latest Publications by Michelle Michot Foss

Latest Tweets from @OxfordEnergy

  • New publication: The EU Competition Investigation into Gazprom’s Sales to Central and Eastern Europe: a comment on c https://t.co/JSfMhZFFjF

    April 21st

  • B Fattouh presents on transformations in producer-consumer relations & implications for Middle East oil exporters,… https://t.co/JE4KURO5P6

    April 20th

  • A new issue of the Oxford Energy Forum on energy pricing reform in the Middle East and North Africa https://t.co/avCjvpieZ1

    April 20th

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