Malcolm Keay

Senior Research Fellow

Malcolm Keay joined the OIES in January 2005. His career has ranged widely across the energy scene, including roles in: the public sector, as director of energy policy at the UK DTI (1996–1999) and division head at the International Energy Agency; the private sector, as senior managing consultant at Oxera; and the non-profit sector, working at Chatham House and the World Coal Institute. He has acted as an adviser for many energy studies, including as special adviser to a House of Lords committee inquiry into energy security in Europe, and director of the energy and climate change study for the World Energy Council. His research focuses on the implications of electricity market liberalization for the achievement of key energy policy objectives, particularly in relation to the environment. He contributed the chapter entitled ‘Can the Market Deliver Security and Environmental Protection in Electricity Generation?’ to UK Energy Policy and the End of Market Fundamentalism, edited by Ian Rutledge and Philip Wright (OUP, 2011). It updated the analysis and conclusions of his 2006 monograph, The Dynamics of Power, to argue that governments have failed to develop policies which will enable them to meet their environmental targets in the context of liberalized markets, and that more interventionist approaches would be needed. His research interests also include EU energy policy; with David Buchan, he co-authored a book published by OUP in 2016 on Europe’s Long Energy Journey: Towards an Energy Union?

Recently, he has published a number of papers on electricity market reform for a decarbonised system, and on the decarbonisation of heat in the UK.

Areas of Expertise
Malcolm focuses his research on electricity markets, the policy and regulatory issues affecting electricity and energy markets and the impacts on inter-fuel competition, energy security and the environment. He has wide-ranging experience in energy policy, regulation, research and consultancy at senior level.

Contact

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                    [post_content] => Electricity market design has become a highly debated issue in recent times, especially in Europe, where the surge in wholesale electricity spot prices can be attributed to the excessively high costs of natural gas. Many people believe that the root cause lies in the market design's emphasis on determining a single market clearing price based on the most expensive resource needed to meet demand, often natural gas. In addition to the immediate energy crisis and short-term challenges, analysts are increasingly worried that the current market design, if continued, would drive down wholesale electricity prices to such low levels that new investments would become unprofitable, mainly due to the widespread adoption of zero-marginal-cost renewable electricity. The long-term consequences of this situation have now become a vital part of ongoing discussions in various regions, including the United Kingdom where the government has introduced the Review of Electricity Market Arrangements (REMA).

The articles presented in this issue of the Oxford Energy Forum delve into a debate surrounding the topic of electricity market design. Recognizing the pressing need to confront the dual challenges of the short-term energy crisis and the long-term imperative of decarbonization, the contributors engage in discussions to explore the various ways in which the electricity market can be reformed.
                    [post_title] => Electricity market design during the Energy Transition and the Energy Crisis - Issue 136
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                    [post_content] => During the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic, we have witnessed glimpses of what the future electricity system may bring, notably the rise of intermittent solar PV and wind energy as a share of total electricity generation. The recent outages in California have illustrated the absence of preparation to cope with the reduction of solar PV when the sun sets. Likewise, periods of abundance of renewables both there and in other countries lead to questions about a system’s ability to absorb renewables and the costs imposed to cope with the excess.This Comment poses a question: if these glimpses are reasonably accurate, what implications do they have for policy makers?

The aim here is to reflect on these glimpses and propose a two-market approach that would help to address the challenge of integrating intermittent renewables, especially by encouraging flexible demand to match output from renewables. Since this approach would require fundamental change to existing markets, that might be too much to expect in the near term. However, we believe that experimenting with the introduction of individual elements of the two-market approach could still deliver considerable gains and would be much easier to introduce. One proposal is for governments that organize centralized auctions for renewables to use them to incentivize demand-side flexibility through supply contracts that mirror the generation contracts with renewable generators.
                    [post_title] => Glimpses of the future electricity system? Demand flexibility and a proposal for a special auction
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                    [post_content] => The UK Government’s net-zero carbon objective has stimulated thinking about the technical options for decarbonizing heat. Less attention has been paid to the policy challenges the goal involves, and in particular the need for a system-wide approach to policy making. This would require a fundamental change in the Government's policy paradigm and the use of innovative policy instruments. So far, there is little sign that the Government has appreciated the scale of the policy challenge.
                    [post_title] => Energy systems thinking and the decarbonization of heat in the UK
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This paper looks at the deployment of auctions in electricity systems, and in particular at the predominant form of auction currently in use: a ‘one-sided’ auction in which a central purchaser, usually acting as an agent of the government, acquires new capacity for the purposes of meeting carbon targets or securing reliability. The use of this particular form of the instrument has been spreading rapidly in many countries across the world to the extent that it may be regarded as normal practice in some contexts – such as the procurement of new conventional generation capacity and renewable energy sources – and that further extensions into other areas – like network expansion – have been proposed. However, the widespread use of auctions of this sort is a relatively recent phenomenon and it raises a number of questions.

•          How should we view the development?

•          Are auctions of this kind a useful market-based tool to complement other methods of resource development?

•          Are they a type of second best – a symptom of the fact that electricity markets themselves are broken and can no longer give appropriate signals?

This paper aims to discuss these general questions relating to the use of such auctions. It does not attempt to go into the details of central buyer auction design or to study particular uses of the auction tool in different countries. Nor does it explore or question the use of auctions by private buyers to acquire electricity. It concludes that, while auctions will certainly continue to have an important place in electricity, governments should be more cautious about their use and should be thinking about alternatives; these would include new energy market designs that reflect twenty-first century technologies and economics, especially those reflecting the high penetration of renewables and the more active participation of consumers. A key goal in developing markets for a sustainable future should be to empower consumers as far as possible – and ‘one-sided’ auctions, at least in their present form, are not necessarily the best tool for this purpose.

[post_title] => The Limits of Auctions: reflections on the role of central purchaser auctions for long-term commitments in electricity systems [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => limits-auctions-reflections-role-central-purchaser-auctions-long-term-commitments-electricity-systems [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2019-04-12 10:00:22 [post_modified_gmt] => 2019-04-12 09:00:22 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=31512 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [4] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 31028 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2018-05-08 12:09:16 [post_date_gmt] => 2018-05-08 11:09:16 [post_content] => This paper looks at the possible role of ‘green gas’ in the decarbonisation of heat in the United Kingdom.  The option is under active discussion at the moment because of the UK’s rigorous carbon reduction targets and the growing realisation that there are problems with the ‘default’ option of electrifying heat.  Green gas appears to be technically and economically feasible.  However, as the paper discusses, there are major practical and policy obstacles which make it unlikely that the government will commit itself to developing ‘green gas’ in the foreseeable future. [post_title] => Decarbonisation of heat and the role of 'green gas' in the United Kingdom [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => decarbonisation-heat-role-green-gas-united-kingdom [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2018-05-25 10:15:58 [post_modified_gmt] => 2018-05-25 09:15:58 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=31028 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [5] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 30465 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2017-06-14 14:18:05 [post_date_gmt] => 2017-06-14 13:18:05 [post_content] => Electricity markets are broken; they no longer fulfil their primary functions of providing appropriate signals for producers and consumers.  The problem arises from a combination of changes in technology (from predominantly marginal cost plants to predominantly capital cost plants) and of policy (support for intermittent renewable plants) which undermine traditional market structures.  In the view of the authors, markets will require fundamental reform to resolve the problem.  Existing market structures are inevitably leading to greater central intervention – support for renewables and the creation of capacity markets.  There needs to be a shift in emphasis which will enable consumer preferences to be expressed clearly and drive overall market development.  The reforms needed will require not just a change in market design but also in consumer attitudes to electricity – this will necessitate a relatively simple and comprehensible basic offer at consumer level. Against this background the authors propose a new approach to market design which will enable intermittent renewable sources to be accommodated; maintain overall system reliability while enabling consumers to put a value on their own supply security; provide clear signals to generators for investment and operation; and provide an ‘exit strategy’ allowing government intervention to be limited in the long run to the setting of framework conditions only.  In the view of the authors, no other proposal put forward to date can meet all these objectives. [post_title] => The Decarbonised Electricity System of the Future: The 'Two Market' Approach [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => decarbonised-electricity-system-future-two-market-approach [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-06-15 09:38:35 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-06-15 08:38:35 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=30465 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [6] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 33506 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2017-06-06 12:56:51 [post_date_gmt] => 2017-06-06 11:56:51 [post_content] => The profound transformation of the European electricity system is putting into question the design of the electricity markets that emerged during the restructuring of the 1990s and early 2000s. The need for decarbonization and the wave of innovation in ICT are affecting the optimal functioning of those markets. New options, such as the ‘privatization’ of service reliability, are becoming a reality, while some of the solutions adopted in the past, such as reliance on day-ahead energy-only wholesale markets based on marginal pricing, are no longer sustainable. These changes call for a rethinking of the way markets are built within the European Union. This is a fundamental step which academics, practitioners, and policymakers have to make together if they want to provide the conditions for long-term investments, integrate a growing amount of renewable energy sources efficiently and securely, and ensure the active participation of customers and communities at the local level. Keay, M. and Robinson, D. (2017). ‘Market design for a decarbonised electricity market: the “two market” approach’, in Rossetto, N. (ed.), Design the Electricity Market(s) of the Future, proceedings from the Eurelectric-Florence School of Regulation Conference, 7 June 2017. [post_title] => Market design for a decarbonised electricity market: the “two market” approach [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => market-design-for-a-decarbonised-electricity-market-the-two-market-approach [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2019-12-06 12:58:41 [post_modified_gmt] => 2019-12-06 12:58:41 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=33506 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [7] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 30254 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2017-04-03 09:26:19 [post_date_gmt] => 2017-04-03 08:26:19 [post_content] => In a recent paper we provide an extended comparison of the measures taken by the UK and Spain in support of the decarbonisation of their electricity sectors.  This short article draws on the results of that study. The background is that the EU is aiming for an Energy Union; member states have common targets; and the Commission is trying to harmonise policy approaches to issues like the decarbonisation of electricity.  So it might be expected that member states would all have very similar measures in place.  In fact, there are huge differences between countries.  This study compares the approaches in Spain and the UK in order to understand what works best and what lessons can be learned from their experience. It also includes an annex on the energy implications of Brexit. [post_title] => Managing Electricity Decarbonisation: learning from experience - the cases of the UK and Spain [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => managing-electricity-decarbonisation-learning-experience-cases-uk-spain [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-11-16 14:24:55 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-11-16 14:24:55 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=30254 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [8] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 29947 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2016-12-12 10:05:48 [post_date_gmt] => 2016-12-12 10:05:48 [post_content] => The European Commission has tabled a mega-package of legislative proposals to complete its blueprint for Europe’s Energy Union. Billed as “the biggest transformation of Europe’s energy system since the building of its centralised energy system a century ago”, the draft legislation aims to accelerate decarbonisation by adapting the electricity market to decentralised and intermittent renewables, and progressive Europeanisation of the sector via a shift from national to regional focus in regulation, renewable payments and back-up systems. It is but a milestone on the long road to any real energy union, and still falls short of that project’s ultimate objectives. But its timing is fortuitous in the fight against climate change, coming as a reminder to President-elect Donald Trump of the undiminished clean energy ambitions of America’s European partners, and possibly in time to reach the EU statute book before the UK’s likely exit from the Union in 2019. [post_title] => EU energy policy – 4th time lucky? [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => eu-energy-policy-4th-time-lucky [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-12-12 10:05:48 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-12-12 10:05:48 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=29947 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [9] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 29085 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2016-02-23 09:07:26 [post_date_gmt] => 2016-02-23 09:07:26 [post_content] => Energy may not be the biggest issue in the impending referendum on the UK’s EU membership. However, energy policy is increasingly being developed at EU level and the EU is aiming to achieve a full ‘Energy Union’, so it is important for those with an interest in energy and decarbonisation to understand the arguments, and to assess the various claims (some potentially misleading) being made about the implications of Brexit for energy. This Comment examines the various factors involved. [post_title] => The UK in the EU – Stay or Leave? The balance sheet on energy and climate policy [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => the-uk-in-the-eu-stay-or-leave-the-balance-sheet-on-energy-and-climate-policy [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 16:22:47 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 16:22:47 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=29085 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [10] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 29071 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2016-01-12 13:53:37 [post_date_gmt] => 2016-01-12 13:53:37 [post_content] => This paper argues that electricity markets in Europe are broken. The increasing penetration of subsidised, zero marginal cost, intermittent generation has distorted prices to the extent that they can no longer give effective signals for investment or operation. The problem is increasingly being recognised but there is no consensus on the solution. The paper considers a number of options; it concludes that a serious debate needs to get under way now if we are to develop sustainable markets for a low carbon future. [post_title] => Electricity markets are broken - can they be fixed? [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => electricity-markets-are-broken-can-they-be-fixed [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-11-16 14:11:10 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-11-16 14:11:10 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/?post_type=publications&p=29071 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [11] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 29051 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2015-11-30 13:34:56 [post_date_gmt] => 2015-11-30 13:34:56 [post_content] => This Comment explores how far the EU can go towards the goal of an Energy Union. The European Commission announced ambitious plans for such a Union earlier this year and followed it up with a number of supporting proposals. However, the Comment identifies a fundamental underlying problem – of governance. The Commission has limited formal powers in relation to energy. It has not so far sought to fill the gap by engaging in the sort of innovative policy making which would be needed to reconcile the contradictions in existing policy in this area, instead relying on bureaucratic measures and processes, which are unlikely to deliver. There is a risk that the EU will move further away from, rather than closer to, a true Energy Union. [post_title] => Europe's Energy Union - a problem of governance [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => europes-energy-union-a-problem-of-governance [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 16:21:05 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 16:21:05 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/?post_type=publications&p=29051 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [12] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27363 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2015-03-02 14:09:05 [post_date_gmt] => 2015-03-02 14:09:05 [post_content] => The European Commission has unveiled its plan for “an Energy Union”, an initiative triggered by the Ukraine crisis’ implications for gas security, but which has now taken on a far wider dimension. It appears to have political momentum, although it lacks crucial detail, especially on governance and supervision of the many proposed improvements. Nonetheless, it is a major step forward in at last displaying a joined-up approach to energy and climate policy such as using demand response to integrate renewables into Europe’s electricity market. [post_title] => Europe's 'Energy Union' plan - a reasonable start to a long journey [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => europes-energy-union-plan-a-reasonable-start-to-a-long-journey [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-03-01 13:48:47 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-03-01 13:48:47 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/europes-energy-union-plan-a-reasonable-start-to-a-long-journey/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [13] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27388 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2014-10-30 09:41:49 [post_date_gmt] => 2014-10-30 09:41:49 [post_content] => The European Union has decided its energy and climate goals for 2030, becoming the first major player in the international climate negotiations to make a commitment in advance of next year’s United Nations climate conference in Paris. Europe has thus maintained its leadership role in terms of being the first mover, but no longer clearly in terms of ambition. The compromises needed to get agreement within the 28-country organisation have produced a 2030 emissions reduction target that is only barely consistent with the bottom end of the 80-95 per cent range of emission cuts that industrialised countries are aiming to achieve by mid-century. EU leaders have also decided on a future loosening of the policy framework that has been driving their national renewable energy and energy efficiency programmes. If the EU has decided to rely in the next decade primarily on the single target of emissions reduction to achieve progress, it must reform its chosen instrument – the Emissions Trading System – to deliver this target. [post_title] => Energy and climate targets for 2030 - Europe takes its foot off the pedal [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => energy-and-climate-targets-for-2030-europe-takes-its-foot-off-the-pedal [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-03-01 14:05:13 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-03-01 14:05:13 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/energy-and-climate-targets-for-2030-europe-takes-its-foot-off-the-pedal/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [14] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27405 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2014-08-11 12:15:23 [post_date_gmt] => 2014-08-11 11:15:23 [post_content] => The European Court of Justice recently announced its judgement in the case of Alands Vindcraft, concerning Sweden’s right to deny support for renewable electricity to Finnish producers.  Against the Advocate General’s recommendations, the Court decided that the Swedish policy does not infringe European law.  This Comment, by Étienne Durand and Malcolm Keay, looks at the implications of the decision, which could justify the continuing existence of 28 different renewables support mechanisms in the 28 European Member States and thereby undermine the goal of a single European electricity market. Executive Summary [post_title] => National support for renewable electricity and the single market in Europe: the Ålands Vindkraft case [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => national-support-for-renewable-electricity-and-the-single-market-in-europe-the-alands-vindkraft-case [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-03-01 14:15:51 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-03-01 14:15:51 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/national-support-for-renewable-electricity-and-the-single-market-in-europe-the-alands-vindkraft-case/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [15] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27440 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2014-01-30 15:36:34 [post_date_gmt] => 2014-01-30 15:36:34 [post_content] => The Commission has recently presented a Communication setting out its proposals for climate and energy goals for the period after 2020, when current legislation expires.  It aims to set a single overall target for emissions  – a 40% reduction over 1990 levels by 2030 – as the centrepiece of its package.  It also proposes an EU-wide renewables target  (at least 27% of energy consumption in 2030) though without the present arrangements under which an overall target in this area is translated into binding national targets.  Instead, it proposes a new governance system for the whole package based on Commission review of national energy plans.  This Comment, by David Buchan and Malcolm Keay, looks at the proposals and concludes that while the new goal seems relatively unambitious, the new governance arrangements run the risk of being ineffective or intrusive (or both). [post_title] => The EU's new energy and climate goals for 2030 - under-ambitious and over-bearing? [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => the-eus-new-energy-and-climate-goals-for-2030-under-ambitious-and-over-bearing [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-03-01 14:30:50 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-03-01 14:30:50 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/the-eus-new-energy-and-climate-goals-for-2030-under-ambitious-and-over-bearing/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [16] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27453 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2013-12-18 12:21:13 [post_date_gmt] => 2013-12-18 12:21:13 [post_content] => The Scottish Government has recently set out a blueprint for an independent Scotland in its White Paper on Scotland’s Future.  In this Comment, Malcolm Keay looks at the proposals on energy policy in Chapter 8 of the White Paper.  The Scottish Government is trying to tread a delicate balance between continuity and change – sometimes the result is only to increase uncertainty. [post_title] => Energy Policy for an Independent Scotland - Continuity or Change? [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => energy-policy-for-an-independent-scotland-continuity-or-change [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 15:44:30 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 15:44:30 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/energy-policy-for-an-independent-scotland-continuity-or-change/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [17] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27482 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2013-05-28 16:39:12 [post_date_gmt] => 2013-05-28 15:39:12 [post_content] => The Commission has proposed a “Target Model” for electricity markets as a basis for the development of the single market in Europe.  This Comment, by Malcolm Keay, looks at whether the model is fit for purpose.  It suggests that while the model  adequately fulfils the single market objective it seems to have serious failings in other areas and in particular is not well suited to a system with growing quantities of intermittent renewable generation.   This is likely to lead to increasing strains as Member States pursue their climate change objectives. [post_title] => The EU “Target Model” for electricity markets - fit for purpose? [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => the-eu-target-model-for-electricity-markets-fit-for-purpose [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 15:39:22 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 15:39:22 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/the-eu-target-model-for-electricity-markets-fit-for-purpose/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [18] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27489 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2013-03-28 11:05:55 [post_date_gmt] => 2013-03-28 11:05:55 [post_content] => The government’s Electricity Market Reform proposals, currently going through the House of Commons, are aimed at reforming the UK electricity market in order to meet UK carbon targets.  But of course we are now operating in a wider European context where, with UK backing, the Commission has been promoting a single European electricity market.  Is it possible to introduce fundamental reforms within only one part of this wider market?  This Comment, by Malcolm Keay, explores some of the issues and tensions which the reforms may raise at a European level.  Such issues may not be confined to the UK proposals, which may simply be revealing a more fundamental clash between liberalisation and decarbonisation agendas across the EU.  As decarbonisation targets get tougher and more expensive, and momentum towards a single European market gets stronger, the strains are only likely to increase. [post_title] => UK Electricity Market Reform and the EU [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => uk-electricity-market-reform-and-the-eu [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 15:37:34 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 15:37:34 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/uk-electricity-market-reform-and-the-eu/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [19] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27495 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2013-02-20 09:04:12 [post_date_gmt] => 2013-02-20 09:04:12 [post_content] => The government has an ambitious renewables programme whose costs have been much discussed. Unfortunately, due to the polarised nature of the debate, it has not produced clarity and some basic points remain obscure – are renewables cheap or expensive? Are renewables costs rising or falling?  This Comment, by Malcolm Keay, looks at two important aspects of the issue – resource and system costs – which have often been neglected but which throw light on the debate and help explain some of the uncertainties about the likely cost of meeting the government’s targets. [post_title] => Renewable energy targets - the importance of system and resource costs [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => renewable-energy-targets-the-importance-of-system-and-resource-costs [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-11-21 11:02:58 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-11-21 11:02:58 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/renewable-energy-targets-the-importance-of-system-and-resource-costs/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [20] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27510 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2012-11-23 16:43:32 [post_date_gmt] => 2012-11-23 16:43:32 [post_content] => After much discussion and debate, the Government has come to an agreement on the contents of the Energy Bill to be introduced next week.  This comment, by Malcolm Keay, looks at the implications of the new agreement.  It provides clarity in some areas, for instance on the arrangements for the counter-party for the contracts which will drive the push for low carbon investment.  However, it also suggests continuing tension within the Coalition – no decarbonisation target for 2030 has been set for electricity, and the Government seems keener to restrain the costs of the low carbon transition (and downplay the impact on consumers) than to provide a clear commitment to a long term strategy. [post_title] => UK Electricity Market Reforms - Cash is King [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => uk-electricity-market-reforms-cash-is-king [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-11-21 11:04:13 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-11-21 11:04:13 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/uk-electricity-market-reforms-cash-is-king/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [21] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27512 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2012-11-09 16:27:45 [post_date_gmt] => 2012-11-09 16:27:45 [post_content] => Governments across the OECD are committed to ambitious reductions in CO2 emissions.  Electricity is central to this agenda as the sector where the earliest and steepest cuts will be sought.  A number of countries, like the UK, are already in the process of reforming their electricity markets in order to ensure the delivery of the huge quantities of low carbon investment which will be needed; these reforms have involved a more central role for the government in decision-making, and in underwriting investments.  The paper considers whether the role of market forces is inevitably going to be increasingly limited by the existence of rigorous environmental targets, and examines a number of  options which could still leave a significant degree of competition.  It also looks at the wider changes which will accompany decarbonisation of the sector, for instance the increasing importance of the demand-side and the need for further  changes in wholesale market structures.  It concludes that governments need to address the wide range of issues involved in a coherent manner and at an early stage if the process of decarbonisation is to be undertaken successfully. [post_title] => Decarbonisation of the electricity sector – is there still a place for markets? [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => decarbonisation-of-the-electricity-sector-is-there-still-a-place-for-markets [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-11-20 15:15:30 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-11-20 15:15:30 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/decarbonisation-of-the-electricity-sector-is-there-still-a-place-for-markets/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [22] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 28154 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2012-05-22 16:17:17 [post_date_gmt] => 2012-05-22 15:17:17 [post_content] => The government has published a draft Energy Bill, which would implement its electricity market reform proposals.  This comment, by Malcolm Keay, looks at the provisions of the Bills.  They would certainly add many new layers of regulation to a supposedly deregulated industry and substitute government decisions for those of market participants.  However, many details of the proposals, including the ultimate costs and benefits, remain unclear and the future of the proposals remains uncertain. [post_title] => Death by a thousand regulations: the new Energy Bill [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => death-by-a-thousand-regulations-the-new-energy-bill-2 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 15:28:07 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 15:28:07 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/death-by-a-thousand-regulations-the-new-energy-bill-2/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [23] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27534 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2012-05-01 12:09:36 [post_date_gmt] => 2012-05-01 11:09:36 [post_content] => This presentation by Malcolm Keay was delivered at a British Institute of Energy Economics seminar on 25 April 2012.  It looks at the links between energy efficiency and sustainability and concludes that they are much more complex than they might appear at first sight. [post_title] => Is Energy Efficiency Sustainable? [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => is-energy-efficiency-sustainable [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 15:26:13 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 15:26:13 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/is-energy-efficiency-sustainable/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [24] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 28199 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2011-12-20 10:57:58 [post_date_gmt] => 2011-12-20 10:57:58 [post_content] => The Government has published what is called a “technical update” to its electricity market reform White Paper.  This Comment by Malcolm Keay analyses the new proposals and their implications. Many important questions about the new system remain unanswered, but the overall direction is clear – towards a planned electricity system whose function is to deliver the Government’s policy objectives.   Having been a pioneer of liberalisation in electricity, the UK will now be a pioneer of post-liberalisation, with radical consequences for consumers and investors and for the governance of the industry. [post_title] => Back to the Future: Electricity Market Reform Update [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => back-to-the-future-electricity-market-reform-update-2 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 15:23:46 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 15:23:46 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/back-to-the-future-electricity-market-reform-update-2/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [25] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27558 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2011-12-19 15:58:19 [post_date_gmt] => 2011-12-19 15:58:19 [post_content] => In this Paper, Malcolm Keay looks at governments’ uncritical reliance on energy efficiency to achieve multiple energy policy objectives.  He concludes that most existing programmes are ill-directed, badly monitored and probably ineffective in reducing energy demand and emissions – indeed they may be diverting attention from more effective measures.  A more targeted approach is needed under which efficiency programmes are properly designed and monitored and integrated more effectively into low carbon strategies. [post_title] => Energy Efficiency - Should We Take It Seriously? [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => energy-efficiency-should-we-take-it-seriously [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2017-11-21 10:54:16 [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-11-21 10:54:16 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/energy-efficiency-should-we-take-it-seriously/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [26] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 28220 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2011-07-14 14:51:12 [post_date_gmt] => 2011-07-14 13:51:12 [post_content] => The Government has published its White Paper on Electricity Market Reform, which reintroduces the concept of central planning for the UK energy system.  Malcolm Keay examines the proposals and their implications for electricity markets in this country; this may not be the last word in market reform …. [post_title] => Return of the P-word: the Government’s Electricity White Paper [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => return-of-the-p-word-the-governments-electricity-white-paper-2 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 15:20:35 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 15:20:35 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/return-of-the-p-word-the-governments-electricity-white-paper-2/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [27] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27658 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2009-02-01 00:00:17 [post_date_gmt] => 2009-02-01 00:00:17 [post_content] => This presentation, given by Malcolm Keay to the Electricity Policy Research Group in Cambridge, looks at the impact of environmental policy on the electricity industry in the UK – and concludes that liberalisation is not likely to survive in any meaningful form. [post_title] => Electricity liberalisation in the UK - the end is nigh [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => electricity-liberalisation-in-the-uk-the-end-is-nigh [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 14:51:16 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 14:51:16 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/electricity-liberalisation-in-the-uk-the-end-is-nigh/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [28] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 28340 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2007-10-01 00:00:32 [post_date_gmt] => 2007-09-30 23:00:32 [post_content] => This paper looks at some long-term aspects of energy supply and use over the periods before and since the industrial revolution. It is intended to provide an overview and draw out some issues which deserve more sustained examination, not to give a definitive or comprehensive coverage of such a wide field. The rationale for the study is explained further below. If we are concerned about the long-term sustainability of our energy systems, we need to be able to think about energy from a longer-term perspective. This may mean revising some of our standard assumptions and expectations, which are often based primarily on experience with today’s energy markets. [post_title] => Energy: the long view [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => energy-the-long-view-2 [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 14:13:57 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 14:13:57 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/energy-the-long-view-2/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [29] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27699 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2007-10-01 00:00:24 [post_date_gmt] => 2007-09-30 23:00:24 [post_content] => The consultation process on nuclear power in the UK has ended and the Government is considering the way forward. This Comment, by Malcolm Keay, explores the difficult dilemma the Government is facing. On the one hand, nuclear power looks necessary for energy security and to meet climate change targets. On the other hand, nuclear does not look viable in current market conditions. The Government will have to decide whether to change the rules in order to make nuclear viable - something it has so far set its face against. [post_title] => Nuclear Power in the UK [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => nuclear-power-in-the-uk [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 14:13:35 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 14:13:35 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/nuclear-power-in-the-uk/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [30] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27750 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2007-03-01 00:00:34 [post_date_gmt] => 2007-03-01 00:00:34 [post_content] => Recent weeks have seen an outburst of target-setting on climate change, most recently in the UK Government’s new climate change strategy. But experience shows that governments’ track record of delivery in this area is very poor – nearly all climate change targets have been missed. In this Comment, Malcolm Keay suggests that to make targets binding and subject to independent monitoring when there is no effective means of delivery, as the UK is proposing, could prove very damaging. [post_title] => The New Green Agenda – Politics running ahead of Policies [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => the-new-green-agenda-politics-running-ahead-of-policies [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 14:11:59 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 14:11:59 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/the-new-green-agenda-politics-running-ahead-of-policies/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [31] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27797 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2006-07-01 00:00:26 [post_date_gmt] => 2006-06-30 23:00:26 [post_content] => In this comment, Malcolm Keay looks at the recently published UK Energy Review and asks whether it amounts to a coherent energy policy. He suggests that it is unlikely to be the final word on the matter – it leaves a trail of unfinished business and fails to address the fundamental question of how energy policy objectives can be implemented in a liberalised market. [post_title] => UK Energy Review – still in search of an energy policy? [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => uk-energy-review-still-in-search-of-an-energy-policy [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 14:08:31 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 14:08:31 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/uk-energy-review-still-in-search-of-an-energy-policy/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [32] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27811 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2006-06-01 00:00:01 [post_date_gmt] => 2006-05-31 23:00:01 [post_content] => The Government’s Energy Review is due out later this summer and already critics are attacking its expected recommendation – to build new nuclear plant. Instead, many are proposing a programme of decentralised generation. In this comment, Malcolm Keay asks whether this is a sensible way of framing the debate and what the evidence is on the impact of decentralised energy. [post_title] => The UK Energy Review and Decentralised Generation [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => the-uk-energy-review-and-decentralised-generation [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 14:07:12 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 14:07:12 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/the-uk-energy-review-and-decentralised-generation/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [33] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27838 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2005-09-01 00:00:41 [post_date_gmt] => 2005-08-31 23:00:41 [post_content] => This presentation, by Malcolm Keay, looks at the UK energy scene, with a focus on international energy issues and in particular on the UK's energy relations with Russia. It was prepared as part of a project to develop ideas for international energy cooperation in the run-up to Russia's Presidency of the G8 during 2006, for which energy has been identified as a key agenda item [post_title] => UK Energy: An Overview [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => uk-energy-an-overview [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 14:05:34 [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 14:05:34 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/uk-energy-an-overview/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [34] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27846 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2005-06-01 00:00:53 [post_date_gmt] => 2005-05-31 23:00:53 [post_content] => Even its supporters would probably now accept that in its early days nuclear power was oversold – the costs were underestimated (“too cheap to meter”); the practical problems (eg waste disposal) minimised; the benefits overstated; alternatives summarily dismissed; the risks ignored. The legacy of this overselling has been unhelpful – emotions are high on both sides and there is a climate of mistrust. It seems almost impossible to have a sensible debate about the place of nuclear in the energy mix, at a time when the need to look carefully at all non-CO2 emitting sources has never been greater. [post_title] => Wind Power in the UK: Has the Sustainable Development Commission Got it Right? [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => wind-power-in-the-uk-has-the-sustainable-development-commission-got-it-right [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2005-06-01 00:00:53 [post_modified_gmt] => 2005-05-31 23:00:53 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/wind-power-in-the-uk-has-the-sustainable-development-commission-got-it-right/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [35] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27859 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2005-02-01 00:00:35 [post_date_gmt] => 2005-02-01 00:00:35 [post_content] => The Kyoto Protocol is due to come into effect this February and we are already more than half way from the signing of the Protocol to the beginning of its first commitment period (and three quarters of the way there since the baseline date of 1990). The world also needs to look beyond Kyoto. Many countries, including the UK, have set themselves ambitious longer term goals, to reduce emissions by 60% or even 75% by 2050. Meanwhile, a number of recent studies – for instance, the climateprediction.net project based on distributed computing and the International Climate Change Taskforce – have stressed the magnitude of the risks and the need for early and effective action. [post_title] => CO2 Emissions Reduction: Time for a Reality Check? [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => co2-emissions-reduction-time-for-a-reality-check [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2005-02-01 00:00:35 [post_modified_gmt] => 2005-02-01 00:00:35 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/co2-emissions-reduction-time-for-a-reality-check/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) ) [post_count] => 36 [current_post] => -1 [before_loop] => 1 [in_the_loop] => [post] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 46155 [post_author] => 974 [post_date] => 2023-05-11 08:34:25 [post_date_gmt] => 2023-05-11 07:34:25 [post_content] => Electricity market design has become a highly debated issue in recent times, especially in Europe, where the surge in wholesale electricity spot prices can be attributed to the excessively high costs of natural gas. Many people believe that the root cause lies in the market design's emphasis on determining a single market clearing price based on the most expensive resource needed to meet demand, often natural gas. In addition to the immediate energy crisis and short-term challenges, analysts are increasingly worried that the current market design, if continued, would drive down wholesale electricity prices to such low levels that new investments would become unprofitable, mainly due to the widespread adoption of zero-marginal-cost renewable electricity. The long-term consequences of this situation have now become a vital part of ongoing discussions in various regions, including the United Kingdom where the government has introduced the Review of Electricity Market Arrangements (REMA). The articles presented in this issue of the Oxford Energy Forum delve into a debate surrounding the topic of electricity market design. Recognizing the pressing need to confront the dual challenges of the short-term energy crisis and the long-term imperative of decarbonization, the contributors engage in discussions to explore the various ways in which the electricity market can be reformed. 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Latest Publications by Malcolm Keay

Books by Malcolm Keay