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[post_content] => The reductions in energy demand witnessed since the oil price shocks of the 1970s have lent undeniable evidence to the importance of prices in determining energy demand. Attempts to actually measure the influence of prices on the basis of econometric models, however, have resulted in a wide range of elasticities. Apart from differences in estimates based on international cross-section data and times-series observations for individud countries, elasticities were often found to be sensitive to the observation period used in the analysis.’ Just as elasticities based on pre-1974 data could not explain the response to the energy price increases of the seventies, estimates based on data including the high price era failed to explain the continued sluggish growth in demand as prices began to fall in the mid-eighties. Estimates based on more recent data began to suggest a lower elasticity than previous experience led us to believe, but the uncertainty of the estimates grew, rather than diminished, as more recent data became available. Had the price elasticity actually changed or had the models simply been unable to capture it?
[post_title] => Are Price & Income Elasticities of Demand Constant? The UK Experience
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[post_date] => 1991-01-01 00:00:15
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[post_content] => The majority of aggregate demand studies, whether concerned with energy or other goods, are based on the notion of a stable long-run demand function, which implies the existence of a unique equilibrium demand for any given relative price and income level. Given this static relationship, the effects of any price (or income) change will, by assumption, be totally negated as price (or income) returns to its initial level, so that demand is completely reversible. In some cases technical change may be introduced, which serves to change the equilibrium demand relationship over time, but it is generally assumed to be of an exogenous nature, unrelated to the actual price development. Although such technical progress surely exists, there is good reason to believe that prices, themselves, provide a motive force in the development of new technologies, so that some component of technical change is certainly price induced. Clearly, in the case of energy consumption - whether in industrial processes, transport or space heating - increasing efficiency has been attained over the past fifteen years chiefly in response to high energy prices. Since some of these energy-saving technologies will remain economically optimal despite falling prices, there is good reason to believe that the era of high energy prices will have a lasting, dampening effect on demand. If this is the case, reversible demand functions or specifications which only allow for exogenous technical change
will not provide an adequate description of energy demand. Estimates of elasticities and forecasts based on such models could therefore be misleading.
[post_title] => The Irreversible Demand Effects of High Oil Prices. Motor Fuels in France, Germany & the UK
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[post_content] => Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, the boycott of Iraqi and Kuwaiti oil and the consequent surge of international oil prices mark the third major disruption on the oil market in the past two decades. The export reductions provoked by the Arab-Israeli war of 1973, the Iranian revolution of 1978-79 and the present Gulf crisis are very similar - amounting in each case to around 10 per cent of total world consumption. On all three occasions oil prices skyrocketed: the price of crude oil nearly quadrupled in 1974 and tripled in 1979, while the first three months of the present crisis have already seen spot prices at twice their pre-invasion level.
[post_title] => Oil Demand: Dependence or Flexibility?
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[post_content] => Total energy demand and the product composition of energy consumption have changed considerably following the two oil crises of the 1970s. Although total primary energy consumption in the OECD was higher in 1987 than it had been at any time previously, its rate of growth had fallen considerably. The average rate of growth of 5 per cent per annum during the 1960s was reduced t o 1.9 per cent in the 1970s and further to only 0.5 per cent over the period 1980-7. For oil, the development was somewhat different. In 1987 total oil consumption w a s 15 per cent below its peak of 1978, and the growth rate was reduced from nearly 8 per cent per annum in the 1960s to 1.4 per cent during the 1970s and to an average annual decline of 1 per cent during the 1980s.
[post_title] => Have Low Oil Prices Reversed the Decline in Energy Demand? A Case-Study for the UK
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[post_content] => The reductions in energy demand witnessed since the oil price shocks of the 1970s have lent undeniable evidence to the importance of prices in determining energy demand. Attempts to actually measure the influence of prices on the basis of econometric models, however, have resulted in a wide range of elasticities. Apart from differences in estimates based on international cross-section data and times-series observations for individud countries, elasticities were often found to be sensitive to the observation period used in the analysis.’ Just as elasticities based on pre-1974 data could not explain the response to the energy price increases of the seventies, estimates based on data including the high price era failed to explain the continued sluggish growth in demand as prices began to fall in the mid-eighties. Estimates based on more recent data began to suggest a lower elasticity than previous experience led us to believe, but the uncertainty of the estimates grew, rather than diminished, as more recent data became available. Had the price elasticity actually changed or had the models simply been unable to capture it?
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The reductions in energy demand witnessed since the oil price shocks of the 1970s have lent undeniable evidence to the importance of prices in determining energy demand. Attempts to actually measure the influence of prices on the basis of econometric models, however, have resulted in a wide range of elasticities. Apart from differences in estimates […]
By: J. M Dargay
The majority of aggregate demand studies, whether concerned with energy or other goods, are based on the notion of a stable long-run demand function, which implies the existence of a unique equilibrium demand for any given relative price and income level. Given this static relationship, the effects of any price (or income) change will, by […]
By: J. M Dargay
Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, the boycott of Iraqi and Kuwaiti oil and the consequent surge of international oil prices mark the third major disruption on the oil market in the past two decades. The export reductions provoked by the Arab-Israeli war of 1973, the Iranian revolution of 1978-79 and the present Gulf crisis are very […]
By: J. M Dargay
Total energy demand and the product composition of energy consumption have changed considerably following the two oil crises of the 1970s. Although total primary energy consumption in the OECD was higher in 1987 than it had been at any time previously, its rate of growth had fallen considerably. The average rate of growth of 5 […]
By: J. M Dargay
This book of essays analyses the behaviour of demand for petroleum products in Europe, the structure of European refining and the patterns of investment and disinvestment in refining, the characteristics of capacity utilization in refining and of the marginal refining yield, the determinants of product price movement and their relationship to crude oil price behaviour […]
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