Ilia Bouchouev

Senior Research Fellow

Dr. Ilia Bouchouev is the former President of Koch Global Partners where he launched and managed global derivatives trading business for over 20 years. Over the years, he introduced several energy derivatives products and was recognized as one of the pioneers in energy options trading.

He is currently managing partner at Pentathlon Investments and adjunct Professor at New York University where he teaches energy trading at Mathematics in Finance Master Program at Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences.

He has Ph.D. in Applied Mathematics and published in recognized journals on derivatives pricing and energy markets. Dr. Bouchouev serves on the editorial board of Quantitative Finance.

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                    [post_content] => The first article in the new series on Energy Quantamentals introduced the main participants in the market for oil derivatives. The article explained how the description of these participants is full of misnomers and that the behavior of many traders is often misinterpreted by the general public, and, unfortunately, is mislabeled by regulators. For example, according to regulatory definitions, the label of producers counterintuitively applies to large physical speculators, while the trading activity of genuine oil producers is conducted over-the-counter (OTC) via swap dealers. Furthermore, many analysts tend to mistakenly refer to all quantitative funds, financial speculators, and algorithmic traders as CTAs, which stand for commodity trading advisors. Such a generalization reflects a misunderstanding of who CTAs are and their role in the oil market. The objective of this article is to shed some light on their actual trading strategies even though the term CTA itself happens to be just another misnomer. The article also presents the main systematic signals which are commonly used by algorithmic traders in the oil market. While initially these signals were used primarily by CTAs, nowadays they are often utilized by fundamental traders as well. In contrast to similar technical signals in financial markets, these indicators are particularly powerful in the oil market where they have their roots in fundamentals, and, in particular, in the theory of storage.
                    [post_title] => Energy Quantamentals: Myths and Realities about Algorithmic Oil Traders
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                    [post_content] => For many years, the primary focus of oil market analysis has been on estimating the production and consumption of oil and forecasting their short-term evolution, as even subtle imbalances between supply and demand were widely perceived to determine the direction of oil prices. The focus, however, started to widen over the course of the last decade as new financial market participants entered the oil market. To model their behavior, an additional type of analysis has become essential: the analysis of supply and demand for financial barrels which are traded in the derivatives market.

To put things into perspective, the world currently consumes approximately one hundred million barrels of crude oil per day. In comparison, the daily trading volume of petroleum futures, options, and over-the-counter derivatives now exceeds five billion barrels per day. Furthermore, the combined trading volume of futures traded on other exchanges, such as Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE), futures on other types of oil, such as Dubai and Murban, futures on  refined products, such as gasoline and diesel, options, and over-the-counter derivatives is equally large. While we fully acknowledge that a direct comparison of physical consumption to daily trading volumes in derivatives markets should be taken with a grain of salt, it nevertheless highlights the growing importance of financial barrels in the oil market.

The rapid growth in oil derivatives has been mostly driven by proliferation of quantitative and algorithmic trading which now makes up to 70% of the daily trading volume in futures market. While the volumes of financial barrels are already very large relative to physical barrels, the oil derivative market pales in comparison to other financial markets, such as equities, foreign exchange and interest rates, which are also dominated by quantitative traders. As a relative newcomer to the world of quantitative trading, oil derivatives market still retains a significant growth potential. This growth could occur regardless of the pace of the energy transition for physical barrels. In fact, if the pace of the energy transition accelerates and the consumption of petroleum products starts declining, the relative importance of algo-driven financial barrels could further increase.

To better understand the behavior of non-fundamental oil traders, this paper launches a series of articles devoted to the analysis of financial barrels. Given the growing role of technology and quantitative trading in the oil market, these barrels evolved into “virtual barrels”, as described in the author’s recently released book on this topic. In this Energy Quantamentals series, we aim to further advance the understanding of this subject and illustrate applications of more technical concepts presented in the book to current market conditions.
                    [post_title] => Energy Quantamentals:  Who is Who in Financial Barrels?
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                    [post_content] => Like any other storage asset, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) represents an option on time. It allows inventories to be shifted forward, providing short-term relief to the market when the demand for a commodity exceeds its supply. The inventory replenishment at a later time implies carrying a short position in the forward market. In the case of the SPR, the management of this short position critically depends on whether inventories are released in the form of a loan or as an emergency sale. In the SPR loan, the short forward position is covered contractually when borrowers return the barrels. If the market is in backwardation, then more barrels must be returned to the SPR than the quantity that was borrowed, and the loan generates a guaranteed positive return to the lender. In contrast, the SPR sale is a bet that barrels can be repurchased at the price lower than the price of the sale. Historically, carrying short forward positions in a backwardated market would have generated large losses, as lower forward prices tend to roll up towards the higher spot price. Not only the strategy of selling oil with a hope to buy it back at a cheaper price takes an enormous amount of risk compared to the strategy of lending oil, but the odds of it generating any positive return to the storage owner are highly unfavorable.
                    [post_title] => The Strategic Petroleum Reserve Strategies: Risk-Free Return or Return-Free Risk?
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                    [post_content] => The relationship between oil prices and inflation has been widely discussed for decades, but its exact identity remains largely ambiguous. What makes the problem particularly difficult is that oil and inflation are highly intertwined. Their connections are difficult to disentangle using conventional statistical methods as frequent regime changes make the direction of causality difficult to pinpoint, producing results that are extremely sensitive to the sample selection. The difficulties in reaching robust conclusions give rise to many explanations of the transmission channels between oil and inflation.

The academic work on the impact of oil shocks on inflation has always been the topic of prime importance for the policymakers. More recently, the attention shifted to the analysis of inflation expectations, and whether highly volatile and easily visible gasoline prices at the pump may have a disproportional impact on forming short-term consumer beliefs about future inflation. These consumer inflation expectations could then affect the actual inflation via the demand for higher wages, which makes oil prices an influential factor on monetary policy decisions.

This Comment outlines less visible transmission channels established by the behavior of market participants that play an important role in reinforcing the feedback loop between the oil price and inflation. It is argued that causality depends on the investment horizon resulting in simultaneous crosscurrents of financial flows between oil and inflation markets. In the short-term, highly volatile energy prices drive the realized measures of inflation, and the activity of cross-asset arbitrageurs ties short-term inflation expectations to energy futures curves. The short-term market-implied inflation expectations then propagate throughout the inflation forward curve with the help of interest rate carry traders. Surprisingly, the tight relationship persists even for a longer-term horizon where it can no longer be justified fundamentally. Long-term market-implied inflation expectations then return the favor and impact the financial demand for petroleum futures via portfolio allocations of large institutional investors, such as risk parity funds. The relationship becomes circular where the strength in one propels the other.
                    [post_title] => Is the Oil Price-Inflation Relationship Transitory?
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                    [post_content] => While the episode of negative WTI price is still being actively debated, its proper root cause is yet to be determined. This Comment contributes to the discussion and studies the event by modifying the theory of storage for an oil market with rigid operational infrastructure, where short-term supply and demand are price inelastic. We found that such pricing anomaly can be well characterized by a simple concept borrowed from the physics of extreme events.

The future prices are modelled as a financial derivative of the storage capacity. During normal market conditions, the spread between nearby futures contract is mostly determined by the carry trade and the cost of storage. However, if either inventory or the storage capacity is no longer available, the carry trade breaks down as the futures trader is unable to make or take the delivery of physical barrels. These events are akin to defaults in financial markets and prices leading to them are characterized by the financial squeeze.

We calibrate the model to inventory data at Cushing, Oklahoma and conclude that only a small fraction of the abnormal price move could be attributed to constraints on the storage capacity. The rest of the move was caused by the financial squeeze on long futures positions held against over-the-counter products. We detail the behavior of main market participants that led to negative prices. The Comment also points to several shortcomings of the recent CFTC report on this topic and suggests additional areas where a more granular look at the data could be helpful.
                    [post_title] => A Lesson from Physics on Oil Prices: Revisiting the Negative WTI Price Episode
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                    [post_content] => Russia’s renewed interest in hedging its oil export revenues has sparked an old debate on whether macroeconomic policies to mitigate the consequences of commodity price volatility, such as establishing revenue stabilization funds to smooth government expenditure over time, should be augmented (or even substituted) by the use of financial instruments such as futures and options. Mexico’s experience in hedging its oil exports is often used as an example of a successful case that other producers could follow.

This is not only related to the issue of macroeconomic stabilization, but also as to whether the use of such financial instruments can enhance producers’ competitive advantage in oil markets and provide them with added flexibility and additional tools to manage the market. For instance, many have argued that Mexico’s hard stance during the OPEC+ talks in April is directly related to the fact that it had a hedging programme in place. Also, while the world’s biggest producers such as Saudi Arabia, Russia and other OPEC producers possess a comparative advantage in terms of their lower cost of production and hence ability to compete in a low price environment, North American producers have a different kind of advantage in their ability to hedge production forward and potentially lock in higher prices than OPEC+ members could get for spot barrels when the market is in contango. Thus, there have been some suggestions that OPEC+ should consider new tools to influence the shape of the curve, including selling oil forward to push prices downward along the futures curve and discourage small US shale producers from hedging.

In this short Comment, we review the results of the main case study in this area, the large-scale put option buying programme administered by the Government of Mexico and assess whether such a programme can be replicated in Russia. We also discuss whether other low-cost producers could potentially also consider participating in the growing market for oil derivatives and in what ways. We argue that Mexico’s experience is unique in many respects and that Russia and other oil producers with large volumes of production and pricing power face serious limitations in replicating Mexico’s experience. We also find that any direct replication of the Mexican hedging programme at today’s market prices does not make much economic sense for Russia. Buying the hurricane insurance the day after the hurricane is unlikely to be good idea. This does not imply though that Russia and other oil producers should not develop their capabilities and participate more actively in derivatives markets. However, this takes time and requires building institutional, legal, financial, and trading capabilities and developing unique strategies that complement (and do not disrupt) their existing policies and are reflective of their size and influence in the oil market.
                    [post_title] => Can Russia and OPEC draw any lessons from Mexico's oil hedge?
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                    [post_content] => The long-term impact of the Covid-19 crisis on various industries, including oil trading, remains highly uncertain. While some uncertainties, such as the magnitude of the demand destruction for petroleum products and the pace of global storage saturation are known unknowns, other consequences could come as a shocking surprise. It is very unlikely that any of us could have foreseen WTI ever trading at negative 40 dollars, and the critical role that retail-oriented derivatives products played in such historic event. To better understand what happened with the recent behavior of WTI, this Comment analyses how financial participation in oil markets evolved over the last decade, particularly the rise of the retail investor and the role of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) in the historic event of oil prices dropping to negative $40 on the day before the expiry of May WTI futures.

The Comment argues that while long-only ETFs always provide significant downward pressure on prompt WTI contracts as traders sell in anticipation of the product rolls, these funds did not have anything to do with negative pricing.  Also, contrary to often cited opinions, this episode was not directly caused by well-documented storage issues in WTI contract delivery location. The lack of storage was indeed the catalyst that started the fire. Subsequently, large ETFs, including USO, added some fuel to it by rolling their massive positions and pressuring May WTI by the middle of April. But the actual explosion and subsequent $60 collapse in a single day down to minus $40 was caused by small cousins within ETF family, which happened at the time when all large market participants already left the contract.

Longer term, a growing appetite among smaller retail investors to participate in the market supported by easier access to trading platforms and modern technology does not appear to be going away. Even fifteen years of losses by financial oil investors have not been able to eliminate the paper demand for oil. Financial engineering will adjust and make products better, but they are unlikely to disappear anytime soon and tracking their positions becomes as important to oil analysts as tracking fundamental balances.

As such, investors ongoing inflows will likely increase opportunities for US producers to place forward hedges at levels which can still ensure reasonable longer-term returns. Somewhat ‘irrational’ behavior among retail investors effectively subsidizes producer hedging and could delay fundamental market rebalancing if producers choose to take this opportunity and to hedge, instead of making more rational decisions to cut production. Ironically, one wrong business model prevents the other one from getting better at least until the invisible hand of free markets punishes both.

The Comment concludes that the sharp blow inflicted by the collapse of May contract will not be repeated given some additional safeguards which have been put in place by dealers improving systems to handle negative prices, by prime brokers raising initial margins, by regulators asking funds to reduce positions, and by funds themselves rolling out of prompt WTI contract earlier. But ongoing dull pain inflicted on both investors and oil producers is there to stay longer.
                    [post_title] => The Rise of Retail and the Fall of WTI
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            [post_content] => The first article in the new series on Energy Quantamentals introduced the main participants in the market for oil derivatives. The article explained how the description of these participants is full of misnomers and that the behavior of many traders is often misinterpreted by the general public, and, unfortunately, is mislabeled by regulators. For example, according to regulatory definitions, the label of producers counterintuitively applies to large physical speculators, while the trading activity of genuine oil producers is conducted over-the-counter (OTC) via swap dealers. Furthermore, many analysts tend to mistakenly refer to all quantitative funds, financial speculators, and algorithmic traders as CTAs, which stand for commodity trading advisors. Such a generalization reflects a misunderstanding of who CTAs are and their role in the oil market. The objective of this article is to shed some light on their actual trading strategies even though the term CTA itself happens to be just another misnomer. The article also presents the main systematic signals which are commonly used by algorithmic traders in the oil market. While initially these signals were used primarily by CTAs, nowadays they are often utilized by fundamental traders as well. In contrast to similar technical signals in financial markets, these indicators are particularly powerful in the oil market where they have their roots in fundamentals, and, in particular, in the theory of storage.
            [post_title] => Energy Quantamentals: Myths and Realities about Algorithmic Oil Traders
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    [compat_fields:WP_Query:private] => Array
        (
            [0] => query_vars_hash
            [1] => query_vars_changed
        )

    [compat_methods:WP_Query:private] => Array
        (
            [0] => init_query_flags
            [1] => parse_tax_query
        )

)

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