Gulmira Rzayeva

Senior Visiting Research Fellow

Ms. Gulmira Rzayeva is a Senior Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES). She is a founder and managing director of the London-based Eurasia Analytics Ltd consulting company. She was a senior research fellow at the Center for Strategic Studies (SAM) under the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan for the last ten years until January 2019. Her area of expertise includes energy security covering issues such as the energy policy of Azerbaijan and East Europe/Caspian region, Turkish domestic natural gas market, SEE gas market. Ms. Rzayeva has published several scholarly publications focusing on her area of expertise.

Contact

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                    [post_content] => In July 2022, European Commission President Ursula Van der Layer and Energy Commissioner Kadri Simpson visited Baku to meet President Aliyev and signed a Memorandum of Understanding on the export of an extra 10 bcma of gas from Azerbaijan to Europe starting from 2027, thereby confirming Azerbaijan as “a crucial, reliable and trustworthy energy partner”. This paper has attempted to answer three major questions: does Azerbaijan have enough gas resources and the production potential to double its exports to Europe by 2027? Will it be technically and financially possible to deliver the gas by 2027? And what are the major challenges and uncertainties in the market? The conclusion of this paper is that the gas is available underground and it is technically possible to produce and deliver the gas to the market by 2027 if there are demand commitments in the market and if the potential European buyers are committed to finalise bookings of capacity in the TAP as early as this year (2023). This will determine the extent of the total demand from potential consumers, and thus how much the pipeline capacities will need to be expanded and how much natural gas will need to be produced. This will also determine the size of the investment. Only the market can give the consortia shareholders the guarantees required for an FID. The first TAP bidding auction for an incremental 1.25 bcma of capacity expansion was finalised in January, and all the offered capacity is now committed, so that it appears that, by the end of this year, all the auction commitments for 10 bcma will be in place. Our projection is that SDFFS, ACG NAG and Ümid may add about 9.5 bmca of incremental gas production for export by 2027. Absheron Phase 1 will reach plateau in 2029- 2030 and can potentially add about 4 bcma on top of the existing 1.5 bcma from the Absheron EPS from 2024 for domestic consumption.
                    [post_title] => Expansion of the Southern Gas Corridor pipelines and future supplies to Europe
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                    [post_content] => The strong increase in Turkish demand and the call on Russian pipeline flows, in the context of tight European markets in late 2021 and the high price environment in 2022, raises questions about the outlook for 2022. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Europe’s anticipated need for higher LNG imports, markets are eyeing with concern competing demands for LNG this year.

This paper argues that 2022 is unlikely to see another record year for gas demand due to a combination of demand- and supply-side factors. It further reviews pipeline and LNG supplies in 2021 as well as gas supply projections for 2022, and also examines the price sensitivity of the Turkish market.
                    [post_title] => Turkey’s supply-demand balance and renewal of its LTCs
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                    [post_content] => Since early 2020, Turkey has been considering the role of hydrogen in its energy future with a view to producing a hydrogen strategy in the next few months.  Unlike many other countries considering the role of hydrogen, Turkey has only recently (October 2021) ratified the Paris Agreement addressing climate change and its interest is driven more by geopolitical, strategic and energy security concerns.   Specifically with concerns about the high share of imported energy, particularly gas from Russia, it sees hydrogen as part of a policy to increase indigenous energy production.   Turkey already has a relatively high share of renewable power generation, particularly hydro, and recent solar auctions have resulted in low prices, leading to a focus on potential green hydrogen production.  However, it still generates over half of its electricity from fossil fuel, including over 25% from coal and lignite.  Against that background, it provides an interesting case study on some of the key aspects that a country needs to consider when looking to incorporate low-carbon hydrogen into the development of their energy economy.
                    [post_title] => What role for hydrogen in Turkey's energy future?
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                    [post_content] => Turkey’s new, timely natural gas strategy of reducing import dependence coincides with the situation that all Long Term Contracts (LTCs) with the current pipeline suppliers will expire in the 2020s. In 2021 alone, 16 bcm of LTCs will expire, of which 8 bcm is Gazprom gas and half is imported by BOTAŞ and the other half by the seven private sector importers. Consequently, the year 2021 is expected to be crucial in terms of market restructuring, with the new contracts expected to have more flexible and competitive terms, as has long been anticipated. Gazprom has already suffered from the situation of low spot gas prices and decreasing volumes as a result of demand stagnation; the Russian monopolist has already lost 30 per cent market share since 2017.

The paper concludes that as long as the market is not liberalized and liquid national or regional trading hubs are absent, any changes in long-term contract terms will not adequately reflect the market dynamic. The government/BOTAŞ does not want to liberalise the gas market but it wants the benefits of market liberalization, these aims cannot be reconciled.
                    [post_title] => The Renewal of Turkey's Long Term Contracts: Natural gas market transition or 'business as usual'?
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                    [post_content] => The Turkish government is in the process of making significant structural changes in the country’s energy sector in attempts to lessen its dependence on current import and transmission infrastructure capacity which is constrained and cannot meet gas demand in peak periods. It intends to diversify supply sources and gas import types (both pipeline gas and LNG/FSRU) to ensure imports are available from a wider range of available sources on competitive terms, at the same time storing more gas in the country once downstream infrastructure capacity allows, to export the excess of gas in the future. Consequently, BOTAŞ expects its maximum daily gas supply capacity to almost double by 2023, from the current 252 mcm/d (including storage capacity) to 473 mcm/d as new projects come on stream. This will extend Turkey’s ability to import gas from various sources by eliminating technical constraints. By doing so, Turkey intends to ensure supply security during the peak demand seasons and to reduce its dependence on existing suppliers, allowing it room to manoeuvre between them and other new options. Turkey is also expanding capacity at its existing LNG receiving terminals and building new FSRUs, taking advantage of the fact that this method of importing natural gas is available in a flexible and near immediate manner. This will give BOTAŞ and private companies an advantage in meeting the growing demand in winter time, instead of having to increase annual pipeline contract quantities (ACQ) due to the application of “take or pay” clauses.
                    [post_title] => Gas Supply Changes in Turkey
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                    [post_content] => Following the introduction of its Gas Market Law in 2001, gas demand in Turkey grew rapidly during the 2000s, tripling to almost 50bcm by 2014. Since then, however, growth has slowed dramatically (even declining in 2016) as the government has come to regard its import dependence (imported gas accounts for 98 per cent of total gas demand) as a security risk. As a result, the country’s new energy focus has been on the development of renewables and the use of domestically produced coal, as well as the development of a nuclear programme, have changed the outlook for the energy balance. Previous positive forecasts for further gas demand growth now seem overly optimistic, and this paper by Gulmira Ryazeva takes a more sober and realistic look at the potential, suggesting that a BOTAŞ forecast of demand reaching 81bcm by 2030 could now be missed by 25 per cent. The paper provides a detailed sectoral breakdown of gas demand, and suggests that while consumption in the industrial and residential sectors may show some growth, gas use in the power sector is set to fall significantly.
                    [post_title] => Turkey's gas demand decline: reasons and consequences
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                    [post_content] => As the birthplace of the oil and gas industry, Azerbaijan’s long and rich history is intertwined with hydrocarbon production, with oil drilling pre-dating activity in Pennsylvania by 13 years. The involvement of foreign oil companies in the late 1800s, including the Nobel Brothers, resulted in the country becoming the world’s foremost oil producer at the turn of that century. The Soviet era precluded further international investment, but saw a dramatic growth in gas production commencing in the 1920s. The 1990s witnessed the return of the IOCs with the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli field (oil and associated gas) and the Shah Deniz (gas and condensate) field developments reversing the trend of production decline and creating an export surplus in both oil and gas.

In this paper, Gulmira Rzayeva provides a comprehensive analysis of the challenges which were surmounted in the development of the Shah Deniz field, not least of which related to establishing export pipelines and marketing arrangements in Turkey, and (for Phase 2) Europe.

Turning to the future, the paper details the nature and estimated potential of partially developed fields, discoveries at varying stages of appraisal and prospective structures in the Azerbaijan sector of the Caspian Sea. Apart from the inevitable range of uncertainty over future production levels and timing, what emerges are the twin challenges of drilling rig availability (it being impossible to bring an assembled rig into the Caspian due to width restrictions on the Volga-Don canal) and the highly challenging sub-surface drilling conditions.

The modest prospects for domestic gas demand growth and Azerbaijan’s geographic location require that any future gas field development decision will also require a degree of certainty on export infrastructure capacity to the primary target markets of Turkey and South and South East Europe. These issues are covered in detail.

 

Executive Summary
                    [post_title] => The Outlook for Azerbaijani Gas Supplies to Europe - Challenges and Perspectives
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                    [post_content] => Over the past 10 years or so Turkey has featured prominently in the various schemes to open a ‘fourth corridor’ of gas supply to the core European national gas markets.  The grandeur of earlier visions has morphed into a pragmatic and initially more modest scheme to supply 10 Bcm/yr of gas beyond Turkey.  With the Euro-centric political excitement around ‘Nabucco’ on the wane the importance of the Turkish gas market in its own right has been overlooked.

In the post financial crisis period it should be noted that Turkey is the only significant European regional gas market to have shown strong growth post 2009 and its 45 Bcm consumption in 2012 places it on a par with France.  With domestic production contributing only 2% of its requirements Turkey imports pipeline gas from Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran and LNG from a number of supplier countries.  Its likely continued rapid gas demand growth raises challenges not only of project logistics and timings but also, given its geographic location, those of a geopolitical dimension.  In addition to its long held aspiration to become a regional gas transit ‘bridge’ between Central Asia, Iran and Iraq and Europe, Turkey is also in the process of liberalizing its gas market, with mixed success to date.

It seems a paradox that the important, fast growing gas markets are also those with least data and analysis available.  This has certainly been the case with Turkey.  I am especially grateful to Gulmira Rzayeva for this paper, which is possibly the only comprehensive one in the English language on the Turkish gas market in recent times. Her dedication in conducting in-country research and interviews with key figures is admirable and in keeping with the record of the Gas Programme of insightful research on highly relevant market developments in this increasingly interconnected world of natural gas.
                    [post_title] => Natural Gas in the Turkish Domestic Energy Market - Policies and Challenges
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            [post_content] => In July 2022, European Commission President Ursula Van der Layer and Energy Commissioner Kadri Simpson visited Baku to meet President Aliyev and signed a Memorandum of Understanding on the export of an extra 10 bcma of gas from Azerbaijan to Europe starting from 2027, thereby confirming Azerbaijan as “a crucial, reliable and trustworthy energy partner”. This paper has attempted to answer three major questions: does Azerbaijan have enough gas resources and the production potential to double its exports to Europe by 2027? Will it be technically and financially possible to deliver the gas by 2027? And what are the major challenges and uncertainties in the market? The conclusion of this paper is that the gas is available underground and it is technically possible to produce and deliver the gas to the market by 2027 if there are demand commitments in the market and if the potential European buyers are committed to finalise bookings of capacity in the TAP as early as this year (2023). This will determine the extent of the total demand from potential consumers, and thus how much the pipeline capacities will need to be expanded and how much natural gas will need to be produced. This will also determine the size of the investment. Only the market can give the consortia shareholders the guarantees required for an FID. The first TAP bidding auction for an incremental 1.25 bcma of capacity expansion was finalised in January, and all the offered capacity is now committed, so that it appears that, by the end of this year, all the auction commitments for 10 bcma will be in place. Our projection is that SDFFS, ACG NAG and Ümid may add about 9.5 bmca of incremental gas production for export by 2027. Absheron Phase 1 will reach plateau in 2029- 2030 and can potentially add about 4 bcma on top of the existing 1.5 bcma from the Absheron EPS from 2024 for domestic consumption.
            [post_title] => Expansion of the Southern Gas Corridor pipelines and future supplies to Europe
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        )

)

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