Ekaterina Grushevenko

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                    [post_content] => This paper analyses the history of oil production in Russia since 2016, including the impact of the OPEC+ agreements, and then looks at the short-term outlook for the period to 2025 from existing assets and known new fields. It then assesses the potential of a number of new areas for production growth, namely enhanced production from existing assets using secondary and tertiary recovery techniques; opportunities in new regions of Russia outside the heartlands of West Siberia and European Russia; the upside from hard-to-recover oil, including shale, tight oil, and heavy oil deposits; the potential for increased output from Russia’s offshore areas; and the development of the huge resources in the Russian Arctic. We also consider the possible changes in the tax regime that might encourage development in all these areas, before providing conclusions on the likely drivers of Russian oil production through the next decade and beyond.
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                    [post_content] => This paper, carried out as a joint piece of research by OIES and ERI RAS (the Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences) assesses the prospects for Russian oil production to 2020 and beyond, and suggests that the history of steady growth seen over the past decade is set to continue. Brownfield decline is being actively managed, a portfolio of greenfields has and is being developed which can more than compensate for the decline in mature assets and in the longer-term regions such as the offshore, East Siberia and tight oil offer significant upside. The recent agreement to cut overall production in H1 2016 will create a short-term brake on growth, but the average for 2017 should still be almost 2% higher than for 2016. Meanwhile, sanctions are continuing to affect the use of technology for some of Russia’s harder to develop reserves. Nevertheless, our analysis on both a corporate and regional level suggests that, barring another collapse in the oil price or a further tightening of sanctions, the outlook for Russian oil production over the next few years remains positive.

Podcast with James Henderson
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Latest Publications by Ekaterina Grushevenko