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[post_content] => The LNG business is in a period of considerable change as it moves from a structured to a traded market. The entry of new players has resulted in a more flexible value chain model, where the bilateral linkages between suppliers and buyers are no longer 'fixed'. The increase in spot purchases and short-term trading has resulted in a market that is increasingly liquid, but still not liquid enough to underpin new liquefaction plant FIDs without the support of medium/long-term contracts from high credit intermediaries. This OIES PowerPoint report discusses what LNG models could underpin the next wave of LNG liquefaction capacity, and asks if the market participants (aggregators, portfolio companies, and intermediaries) have the financial and commercial capacity to support such new models.
The report concludes that for new FIDs to happen, in the absence of a fully liquid market and the lack of availability of independent LNG pricing indices, long-term contracts or equity investment/offtake structures with high credit counterparties will still be required. Steps towards a market/traded LNG market have been taken although there is still a long way to go before a fully functioning traded market, but it is just a question of when, not if, it will arrive. The market needs to see compromise between buyers and sellers on contracts and lenders need to develop funding packages that support the move towards a fully traded market.
Executive Summary - New Players New Models
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[post_content] => In 2017, a gas crisis emerged in Australia’s East Coast gas market. Gas prices had increased rapidly from mid-2016 as the full effect of the three LNG projects starting operations on Curtis Island worked through the gas market, putting domestic energy users under pressure. In March 2017, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) forecast gas shortages in coming years, potentially leading to blackouts and industrial closures. While gas shortages are no longer forecast, challenges in the East Coast gas market remain. This paper examines recent events in Australia’s East Coast gas market, the challenges ahead, and the relevance of these developments for other countries.
[post_title] => Prices and crisis - LNG and Australia's East Coast gas market
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[post_content] => Executive Summary
The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Natural Gas Research Programme has recently published a paper entitled ‘The Future of Australian LNG Exports: Will domestic challenges limit the development of future LNG export capacity?’
With seven the new LNG projects under construction and due for completion in the 2014 – 2018 timeframe amounting in addition to existing facilities, Australia is expected to overtake Qatar as the world’s largest supplier of LNG by the end of the 2010s. With its plentiful gas reserves, prior track record of LNG project execution and operation and relative proximity to the fast growing Asian LNG markets the degree of comparative advantage would seem to guarantee a benign investment environment.
However, several factors, among them competition for skilled labour within Australia, the strength of the Australian dollar and the specific logistical and environmental sensitivities of the project locations have resulted in significant cost escalations and in some cases delays to the original project schedules. This paper also serves to convey an understanding of the much overlooked Australian gas market and, significantly the impact that the new LNG projects are already having on internal supply/demand – price dynamics and the political challenges raised.
Much energy media attention has focused on the problems faced by the current group of new Australian LNG projects. This paper comprehensively addresses the root causes but more importantly conveys the scale of the new wave of Australian LNG supply and integrates this with its impact on the domestic market which until now has been largely isolated from global energy dynamics. The OIES Natural Gas Research Programme is committed to producing timely and insightful research on both supply and demand side developments and this paper achieves both these objectives.
[post_title] => The Future of Australian LNG Exports - Will domestic challenges limit the development of future LNG export capacity?
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[post_content] => In the world of upstream oil and gas, the emergence of a major new prospective area always creates a frisson of excitement. Once the discoveries are assessed and we move past the initial question of how the potential resource base was previously overlooked, attention focuses on the likely ultimate scale of the resource, the cost of development, the likely timing of first production, and the impact of the new supplies on regional and global gas markets.
David Ledesma’s paper on the prospects for gas in Mozambique and Tanzania captures the excitement of the confirmation of a major new hydrocarbon play and conveys the pace at which resources were mobilised and the sheer scale of the discoveries made over a very short time period. The resources, however, are owned by two relatively poor countries with limited institutional capability and capacity. They face the challenge of making decisions on fiscal and regulatory issues which will impact their economies for several decades. Key policy issues include how to ensure that gas is available for the domestic market in parallel with the build up of the export flows necessary for viable development and how to avoid the ‘resource curse’ of currency appreciation, which would harm other domestic industrial sectors.
This paper is a timely description and analysis of the emergence of this major new source of gas supply which is already hailed as a future competitor for Australian and US LNG supplies to Asian markets. For researchers and observers of the natural gas market it provides a comprehensive picture of a gas supply region whose prominence will surely grow throughout the next decade.
[post_title] => East Africa Gas - The Potential for Export
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[post_content] => Relationships between National Oil Companies (NOCs) and International Oil Companies (IOCs) have changed over the past twenty years as NOCs have broadened their activities to include exerting greater influence on managing their countries’ resources, the selection of which IOCs should participate in LNG projects and more involvement in the development of LNG project structures. In response, IOCs have had to re-focus in order to meet the NOCs’ new requirements. The traditional model whereby IOCs managed the development of the whole LNG chain, usually using their own human and financial resources, supported by the NOC, may still be the case for some LNG projects in the early stage of a country’s LNG development, but not for the more mature NOCs. When an NOC has gained experience in developing LNG projects, there is a drive by the NOC to have a greater involvement (economic, organisational and physical) in project development and operations, usually resulting in less IOC involvement along the LNG chain. This greater involvement means additional risk to the NOC which some government companies may not wish to take. Some NOCs have therefore been more active in making this move and others, for political reasons, have been slower.
[post_title] => The Changing Relationship between NOCs and IOCs in the LNG Chain
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The report concludes that for new FIDs to happen, in the absence of a fully liquid market and the lack of availability of independent LNG pricing indices, long-term contracts or equity investment/offtake structures with high credit counterparties will still be required. Steps towards a market/traded LNG market have been taken although there is still a long way to go before a fully functioning traded market, but it is just a question of when, not if, it will arrive. The market needs to see compromise between buyers and sellers on contracts and lenders need to develop funding packages that support the move towards a fully traded market.
Executive Summary - New Players New Models
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-
12.04.19
New Players New Models
The LNG business is in a period of considerable change as it moves from a structured to a traded market. The entry of new players has resulted in a more flexible value chain model, where the bilateral linkages between suppliers and buyers are no longer ‘fixed’. The increase in spot purchases and short-term trading has […]
By:
David Ledesma
Mike Fulwood
Download Publication
-
-
-
14.03.13
East Africa Gas – The Potential for Export
In the world of upstream oil and gas, the emergence of a major new prospective area always creates a frisson of excitement. Once the discoveries are assessed and we move past the initial question of how the potential resource base was previously overlooked, attention focuses on the likely ultimate scale of the resource, the cost […]
By:
David Ledesma
Download Publication
-
01.07.09
The Changing Relationship between NOCs and IOCs in the LNG Chain
Relationships between National Oil Companies (NOCs) and International Oil Companies (IOCs) have changed over the past twenty years as NOCs have broadened their activities to include exerting greater influence on managing their countries’ resources, the selection of which IOCs should participate in LNG projects and more involvement in the development of LNG project structures. In […]
By:
David Ledesma
Download Publication