C. A Favero

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                    [post_date] => 1992-01-01 00:00:39
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                    [post_content] => Irreversible investment under uncertainty has recently received a considerable amount of attention in the theoretical literature [McDonald and Siege1 (19861, Dixit (1989, 1991), Pindyck (1988, 1989), Ingersoll and Ross (1990)’ Bertola (1990)]. When an investment decision is costly to reverse and the payoffs are uncertain, the investment decision involves comparing the value of investing today with the present value of investing at all possible times in the future. The investment expenditure involves the cost of ‘exercising the option’ to invest at any time in the future and a project is adopted only when the expected payoff exceeds the cost by an amount equal to the value of the option. Option pricing techniques have been used to examine the determinants of irreversible investment under uncertainty, and show that even risk-neutral firms may be reluctant to invest when the future is uncertain. Oil investment in the North Sea is an example of irreversible investment. It involves three separate but highly interrelated activities: exploration, development of the oilfield, and extraction, We claim that on the United Kingdom Continental Shelf (IJKCS) the irreversible decision is made when development is undertaken. In other words, the exploration activity provides the firm with the option to invest, whose value is affected by the uncertainty that surrounds future oil prices.
                    [post_title] => Uncertainty & Irreversible Investment: An Empirical Analysis of	Development of Oilfields on the UKCS
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                    [post_content] => The aim of this paper is to propose and estimate an econometric model for the exploration development and extraction of oil in the North Sea. The starting points of our analysis are the recent studies by Pesaran( 1990) and Favero(l991). Pesaran (1990) proposes and estimates an intertemporal model of the exploration and production policy of price-taking suppliers. The optimal decision rules for exploration and production are derived by solving a constrained stochastic intertemporal profit maximization problem. The model recognizes two types of costs: exploration expenditures and the costs of development and production which is assumed to be a convex function varying positively with the rate of extraction and negatively with the level of remaining proven reserves. This cost function is justified on the basis of the available engineering information concerning the determinants of the pressure dynamics of the petroleum reserves [Uhler( 1979)l: current extraction, by reducing the level of reserves and the reservoir’s pressure tends to increase extraction costs. By the same argument, any increase in reserves, reduces future extraction costs.
                    [post_title] => Oil Investments in the North Sea
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                    [post_content] => In a recent paper H. Pesaran (1990) has developed an econometric model for the analysis of the exploration and extraction policies of "price taking" suppliers of oil and has applied it to the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) . The model takes explicit account of the process of oil discovery and of the intertemporal nature of the exploration and production decisions. Estimation of the model over the period 1978( 1)-1986(4) produces an important trade-off between statistical fit and the plausibility of the estimates. The use of rational expectations delivers statistically significant results with estimates of the structural parameters that have the theoretically expected signs, but average marginal extraction costs over the sample take an implausibly high value of over $100 and the "shadow price" of oil in the ground is not
always positive. Sensitivity analysis reveals that one important reason for the implausibly high average estimate of the marginal extraction cost is the low estimate obtained for the intertemporal discount rate: the most plausible estimates for the marginal extraction costs are obtained by setting the discount rate to infinity, i.e. by assuming that the future is irrelevant to the exploration and production decisions of the firm. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the sensitivity of this result to the inclusion of taxation in an intertemporal model of exploration and production of North Sea oil.
                    [post_title] => Taxation & the Optimization of Oil Exploration & Production: The UK Continental Shelf
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            [post_content] => Irreversible investment under uncertainty has recently received a considerable amount of attention in the theoretical literature [McDonald and Siege1 (19861, Dixit (1989, 1991), Pindyck (1988, 1989), Ingersoll and Ross (1990)’ Bertola (1990)]. When an investment decision is costly to reverse and the payoffs are uncertain, the investment decision involves comparing the value of investing today with the present value of investing at all possible times in the future. The investment expenditure involves the cost of ‘exercising the option’ to invest at any time in the future and a project is adopted only when the expected payoff exceeds the cost by an amount equal to the value of the option. Option pricing techniques have been used to examine the determinants of irreversible investment under uncertainty, and show that even risk-neutral firms may be reluctant to invest when the future is uncertain. Oil investment in the North Sea is an example of irreversible investment. It involves three separate but highly interrelated activities: exploration, development of the oilfield, and extraction, We claim that on the United Kingdom Continental Shelf (IJKCS) the irreversible decision is made when development is undertaken. In other words, the exploration activity provides the firm with the option to invest, whose value is affected by the uncertainty that surrounds future oil prices.
            [post_title] => Uncertainty & Irreversible Investment: An Empirical Analysis of	Development of Oilfields on the UKCS
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