Anouk Honoré

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                    [post_date] => 2024-04-15 14:03:24
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                    [post_content] => In this first edition of the Gas Quarterly for 2024 we review the developments during winter 2023/24 on the European gas market and global LNG market and draw conclusions about the outlook for prices and the supply-demand balance in summer 2024.

In pricing terms, the winter of 2023/24 was notable insofar as the price peak arrived in October, driven by geopolitical events and concerns over potential supply disruption, rather than shifts in the physical fundamentals. As the winter progressed, those concerns receded and the bearish fundamentals made themselves felt, bringing the European benchmark price (TTF front-month) down from a peak of over 16 USD/MMBtu in October 2023 to below 8 USD/MMBtu in February 2024.

The main driver of this bearish price run was the weakness of European gas demand, which reduced the call on Europe’s marginal sources of gas supply (LNG and storage withdrawals). That weakness in European demand was spread across the main consuming sectors, and reflected a combination of mild temperatures, a lower call on gas-fired power generation, and weak industrial gas demand amid a pessimistic macro-economic outlook.

While the lower European call on LNG had a bearish influence on the global LNG market, the lower call on storage stocks enabled Europe to end the winter with record stocks on 31 March. This, in turn, means that a volumetrically similar year-on-year storage replenishment in summer 2024 will be sufficient to bring European stocks back to full capacity ahead of winter 2024/25.

With Europe’s own production and pipeline imports seemingly set to remain relatively stable in summer 2024, and the extent of storage replenishment clearly signposted, it is likely that Europe’s LNG demand in summer 2024 will also remain similar year-on-year (if not even slightly lower), thus allowing non-European markets to absorb the (admittedly limited) incremental increase in global LNG supply forecast for the coming summer.

This bearish summer outlook for Europe suggests that there will be sufficient LNG to feed China’s ongoing recovery in LNG demand, and the rapid growth in the smaller markets of South-East Asia, while the looser market and lower prices are allowing more price-sensitive buyers to return to the market.

Overall, the past winter was a good example of the European market benefitting from a combined set of circumstances that enabled the market to balance at prices much lower than in winter 2022/23, as it continues to await the ‘wave’ of new LNG supply due to reach the market from 2025/26 onwards. Looking beyond summer 2024, the coming winter of 2024/25 may be the last in which Europe needs to hope for a repeat of favourable circumstances before the supply-demand balance on the global LNG market begins its shift to being structurally looser than it is at present.
                    [post_title] => Quarterly Gas Review - Issue 24
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                    [post_date] => 2023-12-07 12:10:33
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                    [post_content] => European gas balances look comfortable heading into the winter on the back of record storage levels. European hub prices have stabilized since April and absent a major supply outage, 100 Bcm of storage stocks at the start of December means there is no prospect of any physical shortage this winter. We expect gas demand to remain subdued through the winter, despite some apparent recovery in industrial and commercial consumption in the second half of 2023. The main drivers of this subdued demand will be low gas use in the power sector given the combined impacts of the weak macroeconomic outlook; a recovery in French nuclear output; and higher hydro and other renewables generation. But limited supply flexibility means there are risks to this outlook and most of those are bullish price. A surge in European gas demand driven by colder weather or curtailment of LNG supplies would spike storage withdrawals, lifting prompt gas prices and requiring higher storage fills in mid-2024.
                    [post_title] => European Gas Market Supply & Demand: Winter Outlook 2023/24
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                    [post_date] => 2023-11-15 12:36:58
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                    [post_content] => European gas demand was down by almost 10 per cent year-on-year in the first ten months of 2023. Demand remains well below pre-crisis levels, raising questions as to whether some demand losses may be permanent. However, a closer analysis highlights remarkable differences between the beginning and the end of the year. Over half of the demand reduction occurred in Q1 as the mild winter continued, while reduced gas-fired power demand took over as the driver for reduced consumption in Q2 and Q3.

Gas use in the industrial sector and by small businesses showed signs of recovery in Q3. These trends were confirmed by the preliminary data for October 2023. But in this sector, expectations of a rebound may be short lived considering the general worsening of the economic outlook in Europe. The demand for end-products rather than gas prices may be the key driver over the next six to nine months and may place a cap on any industrial demand recovery.

In the power sector, improved renewables availability and French nuclear production in line with EDF's target suggest an overall weaker gas demand this winter compared to last year, although days with low wind availability will undoubtedly mark a short-term spike in gas use.

The largest uncertainty regarding gas consumption this winter comes from the residential and commercial sector, even assuming consumer demand restraint continues to some degree in a context of lower gas prices. The correlation between temperatures and gas consumption will not return to pre-crisis levels, but rough estimates show that up to 20-30 bcm could be added if winter 2023/24 is much colder than winter 2022/23.
                    [post_title] => European gas demand fundamentals: Q3 2023 review, October 2023 first glance, and winter 2023/2024 outlook
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                    [post_date] => 2023-07-27 13:35:28
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                    [post_content] => The European gas market is still tight, but new LNG import capacity has been added, storage filling was already over 80 Bcm at the end of June 2023, and overall gas (and electricity) demand has gone down with limited prospects of a rapid recovery this year. Nonetheless, Europe must remain vigilant.

Gas supply and demand balances will continue to be a complex puzzle with many moving pieces, but minimizing gas demand will remain necessary to prepare for Winter 2023/2024 (and even for the following winters until the next LNG wave in 2026/27) as suggested by the EU Commission’s proposal to extend the voluntary gas demand cuts of 15 per cent from 1 April 2023 to 31 March 2024.

Contrary to earlier expectations that lower gas prices would trigger a recovery, gas demand was down by 11 per cent in the first six months of 2023 (-27 Bcm) in Europe (EU27 + UK). This evolution was largely driven by the decline in gas use for power generation (-18 per cent), but also in the industrial sector (-13 per cent) and finally in the residential and commercial sector (-5 per cent).

This Energy Insight examines how the crisis continues to impact gas demand in Europe, with a focus on the fundamentals in the three main sectors: industrial, residential and commercial, and power.

All in all, the main conclusion is that the fundamentals now seem to point towards lower gas demand in Europe in 2023, even if gas prices fall further. Gas use is driven by a combination of multiple factors. It is difficult to disentangle all the different drivers that influence it, but the power sector and the residential and commercial sector appear to concentrate most of the uncertainties for the coming months.

Marginal growth in the second half of the year (+0.5 per cent yoy) is anticipated driven by a small decline in the power sector due to the gradual return of French nuclear power and continued depressed electricity demand; a muted demand recovery in the industrial sector; and an anticipated colder winter in October-December with higher gas use for heating compared to 2022. If this scenario materialises, it would bring the total gas decline for 2023 to -6 per cent year-on-year.
                    [post_title] => European gas demand fundamentals - H1 2023 review and short-term outlook
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                    [post_modified] => 2023-07-27 13:49:29
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                    [post_date] => 2023-04-18 12:01:42
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2023-04-18 11:01:42
                    [post_content] => Gas prices have been on a rollercoaster since mid-2021. This Insight examines how this has impacted gas demand in Europe, focusing on the period from early 2022 to March 2023. It also gives a view on some of the key factors to monitor over the coming months that will influence gas demand fundamentals in the region. Understanding gas supply and demand balances in the coming months will continue to be a complex puzzle with many moving pieces, but minimizing gas demand is likely to be necessary to ease storage filling this summer and to prepare for Winter 2023/2024 (and maybe even Winter 2024/2025) as suggested by the EU Commission’s proposal to extend the voluntary gas demand cuts of 15 per cent for next winter.

This article concludes that while gas demand collapsed in Europe in 2022 (down by 13 per cent year-on-year) and remained low in the first quarter of 2023 (down 14 per cent in Q1 2023 compared to Q1 2022), the fundamentals in the three main sectors seem to point toward a potential increase in gas consumption this year, with a possible recovery of about five per cent (20 bcm). Key issues to watch closely for the rest of 2023 and 2024 include the pace of return of French nuclear reactors, but also coal-to-gas switching and the level of hydropower across Europe, both of which could (partly) counteract the effects of the French nuclear return. The willingness and ability of large and small consumers to continue to adapt their usual behaviour in order to use less energy (especially during cold days in the winter), and as a result, the level of temperatures, will be important: cold temperatures would likely derail most demand-response in the heating sector, though the trigger point and the impact are never going to be uniform across Europe due to differences in weather, buildings, and in the role of gas for space heating. The depth of an economic downturn (and which countries might be affected) and governmental interventions in subsidizing energy bills in particular, support measures for large energy intensive industries, will continue to be crucial drivers for gas demand in 2023/24, as well as, of course, the prices of gas but also electricity and the EU ETS allowances.
                    [post_title] => European gas demand fundamentals: 2022 & Q1 2023 review and short-term outlook
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                    [post_date] => 2023-02-15 11:58:51
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                    [post_content] => This edition of the Oxford Energy Forum is dedicated to the challenges posed by the decarbonization of heat in the European buildings sector. Decarbonization of energy systems has become a key topic as both the EU and individual countries, including the UK, attempt to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. So far, the electricity sector has been the main focus of low-carbon policies, but if the region is to meet its long-term environmental target, efforts will need to expand to other sectors, including the heating sector, which is the region’s largest single energy user, covering about 50 per cent of its final energy demand.

Although the heating sector is moving towards low-carbon energy, almost half of the energy used in the residential sector still comes from the direct combustion of fossil fuels (natural gas, oil, and even some coal). In 2021, more than 35 per cent came from natural gas alone. Record high gas prices over the past 18 months have increased the focus on how we heat our homes, adding affordability and energy security concerns to the environmental benefits of decarbonizing the housing fleet.

The energy transition in the European buildings sector relies on two main pillars: lowering the energy demand and decarbonizing the energy supply. Reducing the energy needed to keep buildings warm can be done by improving the insulation and energy performance of existing buildings, supported by behavioural changes by consumers to increase energy conservation. Given the complexity of scaling up deep energy-efficiency retrofits and the significant proportion of old buildings in Europe, it is imperative to look for solutions to decarbonize the heat supply. Alternatives to fossil fuel sources for heating buildings are available (heat pumps, district heating, or even decarbonized gases), but there is no silver bullet and options need to be adapted to local needs and circumstances.

One of the key conclusions of this issue is that the decarbonization of buildings will need to have a central role in the transition to a zero-carbon future, but the task is enormous and lacks implementation speed. Much needs to be done, and some of it will take time. The 15 articles in this edition of the Oxford Energy Forum discuss some of the key aspects of the puzzle: the existing building stock, the pace and extent of renovation, and the existing low-carbon options with a focus on heat pumps and district heating, highlighting their main benefits but also the key challenges facing their deployment, the policies implemented and their shortcomings, the problems linked to inadequate taxation, the importance of local diversities, and the issue of energy poverty. Specific cases are used to illustrate these various questions.
                    [post_title] => Decarbonizing heat in the European buildings sector: options, progress and challenges - Issue 135
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                    [post_modified] => 2023-04-04 10:24:15
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                    [post_date] => 2023-01-30 11:28:32
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                    [post_content] => In this first Gas Quarterly of 2023 we review some of the key events in the global gas market in 2022 and outline a number of important signposts that we will be looking out for in 2023 as we continue to monitor the main implications of the Russia-Ukraine war. At the time of writing in January 2023 the gas prices in Europe and Asia would seem to indicate a level of calm after the volatile storm that engulfed the global gas market in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. However, we highlight that although prices are currently well below their mid-2022 highs they nevertheless reflect a tight market within which a number of potential triggers for a sharp upward spike in prices still exist. We review six key signposts - gas prices in Europe and Asia, the future of Russian gas supply to Europe, the availability of LNG supply, the outlook for Asian gas and LNG demand, storage levels in Europe and also implied demand in the region. Finally, we also look at the key trends in gas use in the power sector, reviewing the key drivers in 2022 and highlighting some key trends for 2023.
                    [post_title] => Quarterly Gas Review - Issue 20
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                    [post_modified] => 2023-04-17 11:39:41
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                    [post_date] => 2022-12-16 14:30:28
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                    [post_content] => 
This edition of the Quarterly Gas Review focuses particularly on supply-side dynamics in Europe in recent months, including the decline in Russian pipeline supply, the rise in European LNG imports and sendout, and the record net storage injections. This supply-side analysis is complemented by an analysis of the global LNG market, from the perspective of supply available to Europe, and an analysis of European gas demand in recent months. Finally, these complementary analyses are used as the basis for the development of a scenario for the European gas market for the period December 2022 to March 2023 (‘Winter’) and April to October 2023 (‘Summer’), with the target of returning European gas storage stocks to 99 Bcm by 1 November 2023 (the same as 1 November 2022).
Looking ahead to the rest of winter, on the supply side, with European production and pipeline imports unlikely to rise significantly in the coming months, LNG imports will play a vital role. While regasification capacity will rise in Germany and Finland at the end of 2022/start of 2023, LNG supply will be strongly influence by trends in global LNG supply and LNG demand outside Europe. On the demand side, temperature-driven gas demand for space heating and the performance of non-thermal power generation assets (influencing gas demand for power generation) will significantly influence overall gas demand. As our scenario suggests, the dynamics of the coming months will have significant implications for European storage stocks – and market sentiment – for summer 2023 and winter 2023/24.
                    [post_title] => Quarterly Gas Review – Issue 19
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                    [post_modified] => 2023-04-17 11:41:35
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                    [post_date] => 2022-07-07 13:30:18
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                    [post_content] => The May 18 documents from the EU (REPowerEU) suggested that Russia pipe imports to the EU could fall by 70 bcm this year. With Nordstream flows being at 40 percent of capacity ostensibly due to compressor issues, a 70 bcm reduction looks to be a possible outcome if flows don’t recover after the annual Nordstream maintenance this month. A few months ago this would have spelt disaster for the European gas market, but gas demand in Europe is already down 11 percent this year and further declines are expected. Europe is also able to attract a lot of LNG from Asia, with China demand being down sharply this year. If LNG supply keeps up – despite the Freeport issues – then with a mild winter, Europe might just be able to muddle through with storage filling to 80 percent and with no rationing of gas – high prices have done much of the work in reducing gas demand. 2023 could be problematic though if Asia demand picks up, especially in China, making it much harder for Europe to attract additional LNG cargoes.
                    [post_title] => REPowerEU and the Short-Term Outlook for the European Gas Market
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                    [post_modified] => 2022-07-07 13:30:18
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                    [post_author] => 111
                    [post_date] => 2022-06-08 11:29:30
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2022-06-08 10:29:30
                    [post_content] => This article examines the demand response to the high gas prices in the European gas market, reviewing the main factors in 2021 and in the first four months of 2022.

It concludes that, in 2021, high gas prices appear to have had a limited impact on demand, while other factors played a more important role and contributed to limiting most price-response, especially in Q4 when gas prices reached (then) record-levels. However, since the beginning of 2022, gas demand response seems to be happening more broadly: in heating with some -as yet limited- change in consumer behaviour, in the industrial sector with apparent switching to other fuels and in the electricity generation sector with gas to coal switching in the mix.

For the rest of 2022, what happens in the power sector is expected to be a major driver, with some possible coal to gas switching as a result of higher coal prices and the ban on Russian coal imports from August, the (so-far) limited availability of hydro and, most importantly, the lower than previously expected availability of French nuclear capacity all likely to increase the call on gas-fired plants for the rest of the year.
                    [post_title] => Demand response to high gas prices in Europe in 2021 and early 2022
                    [post_excerpt] => 
                    [post_status] => publish
                    [comment_status] => closed
                    [ping_status] => closed
                    [post_password] => 
                    [post_name] => demand-response-to-high-gas-prices-in-europe-in-2021-and-early-2022
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                    [pinged] => 
                    [post_modified] => 2022-06-08 11:29:30
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            [10] => WP_Post Object
                (
                    [ID] => 44696
                    [post_author] => 111
                    [post_date] => 2022-03-18 15:26:08
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2022-03-18 15:26:08
                    [post_content] => On 8 March 2022, the European Commission published the outline of a plan to make Europe independent from Russian fossil fuels well before 2030, starting with gas, in light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Commission noted that EU gas imports from Russia in 2021 (pipeline and LNG combined) totalled 155 billion cubic metres (bcm), and stated that this could be reduced by two-thirds (101.5 bcm) before the end of 2022. At the same time, Commission stated its intention to present by April a legislative proposal requiring underground gas storage across the EU to be filled up to at least 90 per cent of its capacity by 1 October each year.

This OIES Insight analyses the component parts of this plan, and their implications. Specifically, the plan envisages increased non-Russian gas supply by 63.5 bcm through a combination of additional non-Russian LNG and pipeline imports and an increase in biomethane production. This supply increase is to be complemented by a 38 bcm reduction in EU gas demand, to be achieved through a combination of large-scale wind and solar power generation, rooftop solar power generation, heat pumps, and “EU-wide energy saving”. Between the reduction in gas demand and increase in non-Russian supply, the Commission hopes to reduce EU imports of Russian gas by two-thirds by the end of 2022.

We conclude that while some parts of the proposal are eminently achievable, others are more ambitious. On the supply side, an extra 50 bcm per year of LNG imports would not only absorb the forecast growth in global LNG supply in 2022, but also require a redirection of cargoes from Asia to Europe, which implies that European prices need to remain high to attract such cargoes. The increase in non-Russian pipeline imports seems realistic, subject to current import levels being sustained throughout the summer. On the demand side, the proposed reduction in gas demand appears to be feasible on paper, but reaching the target will be challenging. A combination of market drivers, specific measures, favourable external conditions (such as good availability of wind and hydro in the power sector and a warm winter) as well as more coal/nuclear in the generation mix will be needed for any target to be met.

The broader implications of the Commission proposals are their impacts on the global gas market (with prices likely higher than previously forecast for the remainder of the 2020s) and additional impetus provided to the energy transition, given the increased urgency of decreasing European fossil gas demand.
                    [post_title] => The EU plan to reduce Russian gas imports by two-thirds by the end of 2022: Practical realities and implications
                    [post_excerpt] => 
                    [post_status] => publish
                    [comment_status] => closed
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                    [post_password] => 
                    [post_name] => the-eu-plan-to-reduce-russian-gas-imports-by-two-thirds-by-the-end-of-2022-practical-realities-and-implications
                    [to_ping] => 
                    [pinged] => 
                    [post_modified] => 2022-03-18 15:30:59
                    [post_modified_gmt] => 2022-03-18 15:30:59
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            [11] => WP_Post Object
                (
                    [ID] => 38681
                    [post_author] => 111
                    [post_date] => 2020-06-18 10:07:02
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2020-06-18 09:07:02
                    [post_content] => A warm start to the year coupled with the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have depressed gas demand in Europe, which is likely to have declined by about 8 per cent year on year in the first five months of 2020.  What can be expected for the rest of the year? The risks surrounding economic and energy/gas demand forecasts seem very large and concentrated on the downside. But all in all, while governments focus on immediate recovery and gas continues to benefit from (very) low gas prices (about $2/MMBtu), various drivers show that the impact on gas demand in 2020 could be relatively minor. On the other hand,  the future of fossil gas demand in Europe seems even more uncertain as recovery measures may impact demand for unabated gas even earlier than previously anticipated and maybe as soon as the mid the 2020s.
                    [post_title] => Natural gas demand in Europe: The impacts of COVID-19 and other influences in 2020
                    [post_excerpt] => 
                    [post_status] => publish
                    [comment_status] => closed
                    [ping_status] => closed
                    [post_password] => 
                    [post_name] => natural-gas-demand-in-europe-the-impacts-of-covid-19-and-other-influences-in-2020
                    [to_ping] => 
                    [pinged] => 
                    [post_modified] => 2020-06-18 10:22:26
                    [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-06-18 09:22:26
                    [post_content_filtered] => 
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                    [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=38681
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            [12] => WP_Post Object
                (
                    [ID] => 34928
                    [post_author] => 111
                    [post_date] => 2020-01-30 14:11:31
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2020-01-30 14:11:31
                    [post_content] => The OIES Natural Gas Quarterly aims to provide a regular insight into the thoughts of Research Fellows on topical issues as well as providing a different angle on trends in global gas pricing. In the pricing section, the Quarterly reviews the LNG Tightness measure, looks at the Russian gas export price to Europe versus the marginal cost of US LNG and also reviews prices on Gazprom’s Electronic Sales Platform (ESP). In Asia we compare the Japanese LNG import price with the LNG spot price and also look at Chinese domestic prices compared with JKM.

The Quarterly also outline our views on the Key Themes for 2020, including thoughts from Mike Fulwood on LNG project FIDs and how developers may need to accelerate plans if they are not going to miss the next window of opportunity in the mid-2020s. Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples then question the availability of LNG for Europe and ask whether sufficient storage will be available to take all the possible supply. Anouk Honore then looks at a possible cause for optimism for European gas demand, highlighting key legislation that should be passed in 2020 concerning coal phase out in Germany. Continuing the European theme, Marshall Hall discusses likely further progress this year in the transformation of the Dutch gas market, while James Henderson considers the increasing diversity of Russian gas export flows via pipeline and LNG. Jack Sharples develops the theme of Russian gas exports further, suggesting that the Gazprom ESP can provide further evidence concerning the company’s export strategy in 2020. On a different, but still European, theme Anouk Honoré considers the potential impact of the new EU Green Deal and considers how it could be developed further during the year with potentially long-lasting consequences for the energy system. Martin Lambert then suggests that 2020 could be the year when we start to see more active progress in decarbonisation outside Europe, with Australia, Japan and even the US highlighted as possible sources of technology development and practical action in the decarbonisation of the gas sector. Michal Median then outlines her view on the outlook for the Chinese gas sector in 2020, suggesting that coal to gas switching could regain some momentum and that LNG could benefit as a result. Finally, Patrick Heather looks at the emergence of the JKM price marker as a benchmark for gas prices in Asia and suggests that further progress could be made this year towards it becoming the pre-eminent pricing tool in the region.

 
                    [post_title] => Quarterly Gas Review - Issue 8
                    [post_excerpt] => 
                    [post_status] => publish
                    [comment_status] => closed
                    [ping_status] => closed
                    [post_password] => 
                    [post_name] => quarterly-gas-review-issue-8
                    [to_ping] => 
                    [pinged] => 
                    [post_modified] => 2020-01-30 14:11:31
                    [post_modified_gmt] => 2020-01-30 14:11:31
                    [post_content_filtered] => 
                    [post_parent] => 0
                    [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=34928
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            [13] => WP_Post Object
                (
                    [ID] => 31589
                    [post_author] => 1
                    [post_date] => 2019-05-23 15:01:03
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2019-05-23 14:01:03
                    [post_content] => The EU is committed to reducing its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 80–95 per cent below 1990 levels. So far, the electricity sector has been the main focus of EU low-carbon policies, but if Europe is to meet its objectives, decarbonization efforts will need to expand to other sectors. Heat and transport are the next two sectors to be targeted in public discussion about climate change, while emissions from the industrial sector rarely feature on the agenda. Approximately 65 per cent of the energy used in the industry is derived directly from using fossil fuels, including natural gas (27 per cent). Transitioning to a low-carbon industrial sector will change this mix and lower fossil fuel demand as shown in scenarios published by Shell, Equinor, the IEA and the EU. One problem is that these models tend to simulate the industrial sector in an aggregate way that obscures the sectoral diversity of the sector, and as a result, the capacities for (or the constraints on) replacing fossil fuels to abate emissions. They do not provide much detailed information about the evolution by country and by sub-sector. The objective of this paper is to propose a simple analytical framework to get some granularity into the possible evolution of industrial gas demand as a result of decarbonization policies in Europe. There are many uncertainties on what can be done, when, and at what cost, but fossil fuels can be more easily displaced by traditional renewable energies and heat pumps for low-temperature applications. These technologies already exist and can be deployed in the coming years if adequate support is in place. As a result, about 43% of the industrial gas demand (about 48 bcm) could, in theory, decline as soon as the 2020s. Conversely, high-temperature heat processes and gas used as a raw material (feedstock) are more complicated to decarbonize as most of the options would necessitate dramatic investments, changes and innovations which are going to take time. As a result, the impacts on level of methane demand are likely to be felt much later, well into the 2030s or even the 2040s.
                    [post_title] => Decarbonization and industrial demand for gas in Europe
                    [post_excerpt] => 
                    [post_status] => publish
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                    [post_password] => 
                    [post_name] => decarbonization-and-industrial-demand-for-gas-in-europe
                    [to_ping] => 
                    [pinged] => 
                    [post_modified] => 2019-07-29 11:12:12
                    [post_modified_gmt] => 2019-07-29 10:12:12
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                    [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=31589
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            [14] => WP_Post Object
                (
                    [ID] => 33495
                    [post_author] => 111
                    [post_date] => 2018-11-06 12:25:57
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2018-11-06 12:25:57
                    [post_content] => Decarbonization of energy systems has become a key topic in Europe as both the European Union and individual member states attempt to achieve goals set out at the 2015 Climate Change Conference in Paris. So far, the electricity sector has been the main focus of low-carbon policies, but if Europe is to meet its objectives, efforts will need to expand to other sectors, including the heating and cooling sector, the region’s largest single energy user (about 50 per cent of its final energy demand). About two-thirds of final energy demand still comes from the direct combustion of fossil fuels (oil, coal, or natural gas) and about 40 per cent from natural gas alone. Decarbonizing the heating sector will probably take longer than many anticipate and will necessitate additional measures. However, if the gas industry in its current form is to have a long-term future beyond the end of the next decade, it needs to consider potential changes, such as interaction and collaboration with the electricity sector and the use of hydrogen and biogas.

Honoré, A. (2018). Decarbonisation of heat in Europe: implications for natural gas demand, European Energy Innovation.
                    [post_title] => Decarbonisation of heat in Europe: implications for natural gas demand
                    [post_excerpt] => 
                    [post_status] => publish
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                    [ping_status] => closed
                    [post_password] => 
                    [post_name] => decarbonisation-of-heat-in-europe-implications-for-natural-gas-demand
                    [to_ping] => 
                    [pinged] => 
                    [post_modified] => 2019-12-06 12:27:45
                    [post_modified_gmt] => 2019-12-06 12:27:45
                    [post_content_filtered] => 
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            [15] => WP_Post Object
                (
                    [ID] => 31058
                    [post_author] => 111
                    [post_date] => 2018-05-24 12:17:52
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2018-05-24 11:17:52
                    [post_content] => The EU is committed to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 80-95 per cent below 1990 levels by 2050. So far, the electricity sector has been the main focus of low-carbon policies, but if Europe is to meet its objectives, decarbonisation efforts will need to expand to other sectors, including the heating and cooling sector. This sector is the largest single energy user in Europe. It covers half of the final energy demand of which 42 per cent comes from natural gas alone. If the lessons of the decarbonisation of the electricity sector are to be learnt, then the gas industry may want to pay particular attention to the effects that it will have on gas demand. One problem however is that the role of the heating sector in natural gas demand is not very well understood, which is essentially due to a lack of a specific definition and available data in most energy balances. The objective of this paper is to set the scene and provide a framework to study the heating (and cooling) sector in Europe, with a special focus on the implications for the natural gas industry, and especially for natural gas demand.
                    [post_title] => Decarbonisation of heat in Europe: implications for natural gas demand
                    [post_excerpt] => 
                    [post_status] => publish
                    [comment_status] => closed
                    [ping_status] => closed
                    [post_password] => 
                    [post_name] => decarbonisation-heat-europe-implications-natural-gas-demand
                    [to_ping] => 
                    [pinged] => 
                    [post_modified] => 2018-06-08 11:11:07
                    [post_modified_gmt] => 2018-06-08 10:11:07
                    [post_content_filtered] => 
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                    [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=31058
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            [16] => WP_Post Object
                (
                    [ID] => 30998
                    [post_author] => 111
                    [post_date] => 2018-04-24 10:23:41
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2018-04-24 09:23:41
                    [post_content] => Following a continuous decline between 2010 and 2014, natural gas demand in Europe started to rise again in 2015. The trend continued in 2016 and 2017 reaching 548 bcm. Final detailed statistics of gas demand by sector for 2017 will not be available for each of the 31 countries considered in the paper for several months but it seems that, as in the two previous years, a combination of drivers explain the rising numbers: the impact of temperatures, continued economic recovery, and increasing gas deliveries to the power sector. This short paper provides a brief overview of the main dynamics that have impacted gas demand in Europe in 2017 and identifies key drivers for future demand in the next five years.
                    [post_title] => Natural gas demand in Europe in 2017 and short term expectations
                    [post_excerpt] => 
                    [post_status] => publish
                    [comment_status] => closed
                    [ping_status] => closed
                    [post_password] => 
                    [post_name] => natural-gas-demand-europe-2017-short-term-expectations
                    [to_ping] => 
                    [pinged] => 
                    [post_modified] => 2018-04-24 10:23:41
                    [post_modified_gmt] => 2018-04-24 09:23:41
                    [post_content_filtered] => 
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                    [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=30998
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            [17] => WP_Post Object
                (
                    [ID] => 30413
                    [post_author] => 111
                    [post_date] => 2017-05-23 15:45:42
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2017-05-23 14:45:42
                    [post_content] => In this presentation, Anouk Honoré argues that even if gas demand growth in 2015 and 2016 may not necessarily be signs of recovery, the next 5-10 years will/could be different from the longer term ‘future of gas’ debate in Europe. She analyses the reasons to believe why gas demand could stay high in this timeframe. The presentation concludes that now is the time to make the arguments of the immediate benefits of natural gas, but at the same time, there will not be ‘one scenario fits all’ and specific factors need to be considered for each country. This presentation will be followed by an Insight to be published in June 2017.
                    [post_title] => Natural gas demand in Europe in the next 5-10 years
                    [post_excerpt] => 
                    [post_status] => publish
                    [comment_status] => closed
                    [ping_status] => closed
                    [post_password] => 
                    [post_name] => natural-gas-demand-europe-next-5-10-years
                    [to_ping] => 
                    [pinged] => 
                    [post_modified] => 2017-05-23 15:45:42
                    [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-05-23 14:45:42
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            [18] => WP_Post Object
                (
                    [ID] => 30385
                    [post_author] => 111
                    [post_date] => 2017-05-09 10:24:51
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2017-05-09 09:24:51
                    [post_content] => This paper forms part of an OIES Gas Programme research theme focusing on the most important national gas markets in Europe (and elsewhere). The rationale behind these papers is that individual markets have specific characteristics and complexities which are essential to understand in order to look at future trends. This paper follows the previous publications on the UK, Spain, Italy, Germany, Brazil and Iran.

The Dutch gas market, one of Europe’s key exporters, is at a significant turning point. A much stronger than usual earth tremor in 2012 caused by the extraction of gas from Groningen prompted the government to take action and restrain production from the field to help minimize the seismicity. In 2016, gas production from the giant field was less than half the volumes produced just three years previously, with almost no flexibility to cope with seasonality of demand. Nobody seems to be paying much attention to it maybe because there have been no signs of any major threat to security of gas supply nationally and in North West Europe. However, the complete change in the Dutch gas outlook means a major fall in regional production from a European perspective and a big increase in imports from elsewhere with potential security of supply implications (volumes, capacity, prices, and/or dependence). Consideration on the safety and health of the people of Groningen has also changed public opinion about gas dramatically. The use of renewables in power generation and an increased focus on energy efficiency have become the key policy drivers but the transition towards a sustainable economy is also overwhelmed by an anti-gas sentiment. This dramatic evolution casts an important doubt over the future of gas in the country but equally importantly in Europe as a whole, particularly for those countries in the North-West of the region whose imports of Dutch L-gas and H-gas have historically been crucial elements of their supply. It is no longer ‘business as usual’ and this paper offers some food for thought on the challenges but also the prospects and expectations for the Dutch gas industry looking ahead to a 2030 horizon.

Executive Summary
                    [post_title] => The Dutch Gas Market: trials, tribulations, and trends
                    [post_excerpt] => 
                    [post_status] => publish
                    [comment_status] => closed
                    [ping_status] => closed
                    [post_password] => 
                    [post_name] => dutch-gas-market-trials-tribulations-trends
                    [to_ping] => 
                    [pinged] => 
                    [post_modified] => 2017-11-16 13:22:26
                    [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-11-16 13:22:26
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            [19] => WP_Post Object
                (
                    [ID] => 33507
                    [post_author] => 111
                    [post_date] => 2017-03-06 12:59:01
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2017-03-06 12:59:01
                    [post_content] => This chapter explores in detail the challenges which the European gas markets currently face, and the opportunities they present.

Honoré, A. (2017). ‘What outlook for European gas demand? an overview of possible scenarios’, in Hafner, M. and Tagliapietra, S. (eds.), The European Gas Markets: Challenges and Opportunities, Palgrave Macmillan.
                    [post_title] => What outlook for European gas demand? an overview of possible scenarios
                    [post_excerpt] => 
                    [post_status] => publish
                    [comment_status] => closed
                    [ping_status] => closed
                    [post_password] => 
                    [post_name] => what-outlook-for-european-gas-demand-an-overview-of-possible-scenarios
                    [to_ping] => 
                    [pinged] => 
                    [post_modified] => 2019-12-18 10:18:22
                    [post_modified_gmt] => 2019-12-18 10:18:22
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            [20] => WP_Post Object
                (
                    [ID] => 29755
                    [post_author] => 111
                    [post_date] => 2016-10-26 11:16:58
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2016-10-26 10:16:58
                    [post_content] => South America has long been isolated from other natural gas markets, focusing instead on achieving self sufficiency and regional integration. As a consequence, it has never been at the centre of discussions in the natural gas industry until the region decided to turn to Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) in 2008 following shortages of natural gas production, tensions over price renegotiations and shortfalls of contracted deliveries. LNG imports only started in the late 2000s but reached 17.2 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2015. Despite relatively small volumes at the global scale, representing less than 5% of the world LNG trades, if the pace continues, the region could become an important player reducing the scale of flows to Europe, the swing market for LNG. This was the starting point of this research, which was carried out with the objective to propose an overview of the gas demand fundamentals to 2030 horizons in a comprehensive way with some highlights of individual market trends (the paper focuses on Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela). The scenarios will need to be updated as policies/prices/generation mix evolve in the future, but the main conclusion of this research is that, as of mid 2016, South America is not expected to be a major future LNG market unless there are extreme climatic conditions, which will not happen every year and will not last many years. LNG will remain necessary to supply much needed flexibility, additional volumes, security of supply and to reach new markets far from infrastructure, but there are also major uncertainties on volumes, prices, timeframe, location and even direction of the LNG flows as some importers could turn exporters at times of low demand toward the end of the timeframe.

 
                    [post_title] => South American Gas Markets and the role of LNG
                    [post_excerpt] => 
                    [post_status] => publish
                    [comment_status] => closed
                    [ping_status] => closed
                    [post_password] => 
                    [post_name] => south-american-gas-markets-role-lng
                    [to_ping] => 
                    [pinged] => 
                    [post_modified] => 2017-11-16 13:36:51
                    [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-11-16 13:36:51
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            [21] => WP_Post Object
                (
                    [ID] => 27389
                    [post_author] => 1
                    [post_date] => 2014-10-27 10:57:52
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2014-10-27 10:57:52
                    [post_content] => There is limited scope for significantly reducing overall European dependence on Russian gas before the mid-2020s. Countries in the Baltic region and south eastern Europe which are highly dependent on Russian gas, and hence extremely vulnerable to interruptions, could substantially reduce and even eliminate imports of Russian gas by the early 2020s, by a combination of LNG and pipeline gas from Azerbaijan. Similar measures could reduce (but not eliminate) the dependence of central Europe and Turkey on Russian gas. However, Russian gas will be highly competitive with all other pipeline gas and LNG (including US LNG) supplies to Europe, and Gazprom’s market power to impact European hub prices may be considerable. Countries with strong geopolitical fears related to Russian gas dependence will need to either terminate, or not renew on expiry, their long term contracts with Gazprom.
                    [post_title] => Reducing European Dependence on Russian Gas - distinguishing natural gas security from geopolitics
                    [post_excerpt] => 
                    [post_status] => publish
                    [comment_status] => closed
                    [ping_status] => closed
                    [post_password] => 
                    [post_name] => reducing-european-dependence-on-russian-gas-distinguishing-natural-gas-security-from-geopolitics
                    [to_ping] => 
                    [pinged] => 
                    [post_modified] => 2017-11-20 11:01:21
                    [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-11-20 11:01:21
                    [post_content_filtered] => 
                    [post_parent] => 0
                    [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/reducing-european-dependence-on-russian-gas-distinguishing-natural-gas-security-from-geopolitics/
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            [22] => WP_Post Object
                (
                    [ID] => 27416
                    [post_author] => 1
                    [post_date] => 2014-06-10 10:39:01
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2014-06-10 09:39:01
                    [post_content] => A report published by the Natural Gas Programme of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, concludes that European gas demand will not recover its 2010 level until about 2025. Dr Anouk Honoré has produced the most comprehensive independent study of European gas demand by country and by sector available in the public domain. The scenarios show that natural gas demand in the 35 countries of the European region falls from 594 Bcm in 2010 to 564 Bcm in 2020 and then rises to 618 Bcm in 2030. Only 24 Bcm in two decades may seem very pessimistic, but one must not forget the sharp decline that already happened in 2010-2013. Focusing on the 2013-2030 period, then 88 Bcm of additional gas consumed is expected.

Even before the financial crisis of 2008 and subsequent financial recession, European demand growth had slowed, however a product of both a maturing market, low population growth, higher gas prices (in large part due to the oil price linkage in much of its contracted imports) and the migration of manufacturing industry to other world regions. Assessing the long term prospects for European gas demand against this backdrop would be challenge enough. The additional dimensions of EU renewables and decarbonisation policy, the Large Combustion Plant Directive, the Industrial Emissions Directive, the German Energiewende and other country-specific policies and diverse national power generation mix ‘starting points’ take the challenge into ‘formidable’ territory, especially in the current uncertain post-economic crisis landscape. This paper addresses all the major ‘known unknowns’ as far as this is possible and proposes an overview of the gas demand fundamentals in Europe to 2020 and 2030 horizons. Readers will find in the appendix all the key assumptions set out in detail at a national level which, when aggregated, form the basis for the demand outlook scenario.
                    [post_title] => The Outlook for Natural Gas Demand in Europe
                    [post_excerpt] => 
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                    [post_name] => the-outlook-for-natural-gas-demand-in-europe
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                    [post_modified] => 2017-11-20 14:09:52
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            [23] => WP_Post Object
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                    [ID] => 27427
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                    [post_date] => 2014-03-10 12:29:50
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2014-03-10 12:29:50
                    [post_content] => The change of government in Kyiv, the Russian military action in Crimea, the diplomatic reaction by the western powers, and the perceived danger of war, clearly have implications for all economic relations between Russia, Ukraine and Europe, especially in the energy sphere. Russia supplies about 30% of Europe’s natural gas, and more than half of these volumes are still transported via Ukraine. In Ukraine, gas supply issues are combined with the economic upheavals aggravated by political crisis.

As of March 10th 2014, the most likely source of supply disruptions is the serious indebtedness of Naftogaz Ukrainy, which, despite clearing some of its $3.3 billion debt to Gazprom in late February, as of 7 March was in arrears to Gazprom by a sum of just under $2 billion.  In previous Russo-Ukrainian gas disputes, such a build-up of debt has led to Gazprom cutting off deliveries to Ukrainian customers and the subsequent diversion of transit gas bound for Europe to consumption in Ukraine. This led in January 2009 to all westward deliveries of Russian gas, both to EU and Ukrainian destinations, being suspended for two weeks.

If gas deliveries through Ukraine are halted the impact would be less serious than in 2009, because (i) the Nord Stream pipeline, which transports Russian gas to Germany without crossing Ukraine or Belarus, has been completed, and other interconnections have improved the situation in eastern Europe; and (ii) the economic situation, and the arrival of milder weather means that demand is relatively low.

From Europe’s standpoint, commercial logic would suggest that support would be given to diversifying gas transit away from Ukraine, including regulatory support for the South Stream pipeline, which, if completed with four strings, should enable the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine to be suspended completely by 2020. However, it is possible that a political move to minimise cooperation with Russia on energy issues in line with European governments’ views of the Russian action in Crimea – may prevail. In this case, the EU-Russian disputes over gas imports and regulation will worsen, with potentially negative consequences for South Stream. Moreover, European efforts to diversify away from Russian gas, the success of which has been limited in the past because of the economic costs, will be revived.
                    [post_title] => What the Ukrainian crisis means for gas markets
                    [post_excerpt] => 
                    [post_status] => publish
                    [comment_status] => closed
                    [ping_status] => closed
                    [post_password] => 
                    [post_name] => what-the-ukrainian-crisis-means-for-gas-markets
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                    [pinged] => 
                    [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 16:33:45
                    [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 16:33:45
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                    [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/what-the-ukrainian-crisis-means-for-gas-markets/
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            [24] => WP_Post Object
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                    [post_date] => 2013-06-06 11:21:59
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2013-06-06 10:21:59
                    [post_content] => The Italian gas market is the third largest in Europe with strong demand growth especially in the power generation sector up to the mid 2000s. But projections of demand growth from that era have not been realised. Clearly the impact of the financial crisis and subsequent recession has had a significant impact, exacerbated by the growth in wind and solar generation capacity.

Market liberalisation in the 2000s failed to achieve levels of competition in the mid and downstream sectors to the extent seen in North West European markets. This resulted not only in some of the highest European end-user gas prices, but also delayed development of a liquid trading hub. Only in late 2012 did prices at the Italian gas hub PSV align with the prices at the Dutch gas hub TTF and other North West European hubs after capacity availability issues in linking infrastructure were resolved.

Italy’s contracted supply commitments considerably exceed current and envisaged gas consumption levels. Scenarios on gas demand are not optimistic and will ultimately depend on future economic activity, tempered by the growth of renewable capacity.

This paper takes these issues into consideration, and offers some insights regarding the challenges but also the opportunities that will arise in the Italian gas industry up to 2020.
                    [post_title] => The Italian Gas Market  - Challenges and Opportunities
                    [post_excerpt] => 
                    [post_status] => publish
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                    [post_password] => 
                    [post_name] => the-italian-gas-market-challenges-and-opportunities
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                    [post_modified] => 2017-11-20 14:33:07
                    [post_modified_gmt] => 2017-11-20 14:33:07
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                    [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/the-italian-gas-market-challenges-and-opportunities/
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                    [post_date] => 2011-08-09 10:21:14
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                    [post_content] => In parallel with a flourishing economy, the natural gas industry in Spain was characterised by rapid consumption growth in the late 1990s and 2000s. Infrastructure and supplies were designed to meet the needs of a gas market growing at double digit rates each year. This high growth rate - for a European gas market - was expected to continue until at least the mid-2010s. By 2011, this outlook was replaced by a more pessimistic one. Firstly, the country’s economy was hit hard by the global recession and GDP growth recovered later than average for Europe. Secondly, the utilisation of Spain’s CCGTs dropped from 52% in 2008 to only 33% in 2010 as a result of an increasing use of renewable energy - especially wind and hydropower - to produce electricity. This raises the question of whether the expectation of gas demand in the Spanish power sector is ever going to materialise. The objective of this paper is to investigate the state of the Spanish gas market and its potential for growth. Will the negative impacts on the gas market be short lived or is there a need to review the scenarios to incorporate new dynamics relative to economic growth and renewable energy use?  What will the consequence be of these changes on the gas industry?
                    [post_title] => The Spanish Gas Market: Demand Trends Post Recession and Consequences for the Industry
                    [post_excerpt] => 
                    [post_status] => publish
                    [comment_status] => closed
                    [ping_status] => closed
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                    [post_name] => the-spanish-gas-market-demand-trends-post-recession-and-consequences-for-the-industry-2
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                    [pinged] => 
                    [post_modified] => 2018-01-23 14:33:52
                    [post_modified_gmt] => 2018-01-23 14:33:52
                    [post_content_filtered] => 
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                    [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/the-spanish-gas-market-demand-trends-post-recession-and-consequences-for-the-industry-2/
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            [26] => WP_Post Object
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                    [post_author] => 1
                    [post_date] => 2011-01-25 17:25:33
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2011-01-25 17:25:33
                    [post_content] => This paper is a companion piece to the book “Natural Gas Supply, Demand and Prices: Cycles, seasons, and the impact of LNG price arbitrage” published in January 2011 by the OIES.1 The aim of this paper was to give a short statistical update on gas demand since the book was finished. The main text provides some concise analysis on gas demand trends and the main sectors of consumption. The appendices offer additional statistical details by country.
                    [post_title] => Economic recession and natural gas demand in Europe: what happened in 2008-2010?
                    [post_excerpt] => 
                    [post_status] => publish
                    [comment_status] => closed
                    [ping_status] => closed
                    [post_password] => 
                    [post_name] => economic-recession-and-natural-gas-demand-in-europe-what-happened-in-2008-2010
                    [to_ping] => 
                    [pinged] => 
                    [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 15:16:18
                    [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 15:16:18
                    [post_content_filtered] => 
                    [post_parent] => 0
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            [27] => WP_Post Object
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                    [ID] => 27827
                    [post_author] => 1
                    [post_date] => 2006-01-01 00:00:33
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2006-01-01 00:00:33
                    [post_content] => Why do we need a study on gas demand? First, because energy forecasts predict natural gas to be the fastest growing primary energy source in Europe in the next 2−3 decades. Gas demand forecasts commonly show optimistic trends increasing gently or steeply, as shown in Figure 1. The reasons for this expected ‘dash for gas’ are well known: the economics and efficiency of the new combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) power plants, the environmental qualities of gas, and the adaptability, flexibility and availability of gas in an open power sector.
                    [post_title] => Future Natural Gas Demand in Europe: The importance of the gas sector
                    [post_excerpt] => 
                    [post_status] => publish
                    [comment_status] => closed
                    [ping_status] => closed
                    [post_password] => 
                    [post_name] => future-natural-gas-demand-in-europe-the-importance-of-the-gas-sector
                    [to_ping] => 
                    [pinged] => 
                    [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 14:06:18
                    [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 14:06:18
                    [post_content_filtered] => 
                    [post_parent] => 0
                    [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/future-natural-gas-demand-in-europe-the-importance-of-the-gas-sector/
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            [28] => WP_Post Object
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                    [ID] => 27844
                    [post_author] => 1
                    [post_date] => 2005-07-01 00:00:02
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2005-06-30 23:00:02
                    [post_content] => This presentation was given by Anouk Honoré at the Energy Risk Management seminar on June 28, 2005 at the Cass Business School in London. It highlights the first results of our on-going research on gas demand in Europe.
                    [post_title] => Gas Demand in Europe: The role of the power sector
                    [post_excerpt] => 
                    [post_status] => publish
                    [comment_status] => closed
                    [ping_status] => closed
                    [post_password] => 
                    [post_name] => gas-demand-in-europe-the-role-of-the-power-sector
                    [to_ping] => 
                    [pinged] => 
                    [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 14:05:12
                    [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 14:05:12
                    [post_content_filtered] => 
                    [post_parent] => 0
                    [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/gas-demand-in-europe-the-role-of-the-power-sector/
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                )

            [29] => WP_Post Object
                (
                    [ID] => 27866
                    [post_author] => 1
                    [post_date] => 2004-11-01 00:00:43
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2004-11-01 00:00:43
                    [post_content] => Argentina has a peculiar history. In the early 1900s, it was one of the leading countries in the world, but at the end of the century it more resembled a developing country.  Argentina remains however the richest country in South America despite its economic decline, as measured by GDP per capita.
                    [post_title] => Argentina: 2004 Gas Crisis
                    [post_excerpt] => 
                    [post_status] => publish
                    [comment_status] => closed
                    [ping_status] => closed
                    [post_password] => 
                    [post_name] => argentina-2004-gas-crisis
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                    [pinged] => 
                    [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 14:04:00
                    [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-02-29 14:04:00
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                    [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/publications/argentina-2004-gas-crisis/
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            [30] => WP_Post Object
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                    [post_author] => 1
                    [post_date] => 2004-07-01 00:00:50
                    [post_date_gmt] => 2004-06-30 23:00:50
                    [post_content] => Anouk Honore examines the origins of the current Argentine gas crisis, governmental responses to it and its effect on Southern Cone energy integration. 
                    [post_title] => Argentina 2004: A Gas Crisis?
                    [post_excerpt] => 
                    [post_status] => publish
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                    [post_name] => argentina-2004-a-gas-crisis
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                    [post_modified] => 2016-02-29 14:02:29
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            [31] => WP_Post Object
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                    [post_date] => 2004-07-01 00:00:37
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                    [post_content] => Using examples of ongoing multi-billion euro investments in projects which will deliver gas to the UK market, Jonathan Stern and Anouk Honoré show that the risks to such projects posed by market liberalisation are being assumed by market players, and are not preventing large scale, long-term supply reaching the UK.
                    [post_title] => Large Scale Investments in Liberalised Gas Markets: The UK Case
                    [post_excerpt] => 
                    [post_status] => publish
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                    [ping_status] => closed
                    [post_password] => 
                    [post_name] => large-scale-investments-in-liberalised-gas-markets-the-uk-case
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                    [pinged] => 
                    [post_modified] => 2016-03-01 15:44:44
                    [post_modified_gmt] => 2016-03-01 15:44:44
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            [post_date] => 2024-04-15 14:03:24
            [post_date_gmt] => 2024-04-15 13:03:24
            [post_content] => In this first edition of the Gas Quarterly for 2024 we review the developments during winter 2023/24 on the European gas market and global LNG market and draw conclusions about the outlook for prices and the supply-demand balance in summer 2024.

In pricing terms, the winter of 2023/24 was notable insofar as the price peak arrived in October, driven by geopolitical events and concerns over potential supply disruption, rather than shifts in the physical fundamentals. As the winter progressed, those concerns receded and the bearish fundamentals made themselves felt, bringing the European benchmark price (TTF front-month) down from a peak of over 16 USD/MMBtu in October 2023 to below 8 USD/MMBtu in February 2024.

The main driver of this bearish price run was the weakness of European gas demand, which reduced the call on Europe’s marginal sources of gas supply (LNG and storage withdrawals). That weakness in European demand was spread across the main consuming sectors, and reflected a combination of mild temperatures, a lower call on gas-fired power generation, and weak industrial gas demand amid a pessimistic macro-economic outlook.

While the lower European call on LNG had a bearish influence on the global LNG market, the lower call on storage stocks enabled Europe to end the winter with record stocks on 31 March. This, in turn, means that a volumetrically similar year-on-year storage replenishment in summer 2024 will be sufficient to bring European stocks back to full capacity ahead of winter 2024/25.

With Europe’s own production and pipeline imports seemingly set to remain relatively stable in summer 2024, and the extent of storage replenishment clearly signposted, it is likely that Europe’s LNG demand in summer 2024 will also remain similar year-on-year (if not even slightly lower), thus allowing non-European markets to absorb the (admittedly limited) incremental increase in global LNG supply forecast for the coming summer.

This bearish summer outlook for Europe suggests that there will be sufficient LNG to feed China’s ongoing recovery in LNG demand, and the rapid growth in the smaller markets of South-East Asia, while the looser market and lower prices are allowing more price-sensitive buyers to return to the market.

Overall, the past winter was a good example of the European market benefitting from a combined set of circumstances that enabled the market to balance at prices much lower than in winter 2022/23, as it continues to await the ‘wave’ of new LNG supply due to reach the market from 2025/26 onwards. Looking beyond summer 2024, the coming winter of 2024/25 may be the last in which Europe needs to hope for a repeat of favourable circumstances before the supply-demand balance on the global LNG market begins its shift to being structurally looser than it is at present.
            [post_title] => Quarterly Gas Review - Issue 24
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            [post_name] => quarterly-gas-review-issue-24
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