Adi Imsirovic

Research Associate

Adi Imsirovic is a Head of Oil at Gazprom Marketing & Trading.

Prior to this, he held a number of senor trading positions in London and Singapore where he lived and worked for many years. He taught part time at Surrey University: Energy Economics as well as Resource and Environmental Economics for several years.

He has an honours degree (B.Sc.) in Economics and a Master of Science (M.Sc.) degree in Energy Economics from Surrey University. He is a Fulbright Scholar and he studied at the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Harvard University.

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                    [post_date] => 2019-06-18 10:56:57
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                    [post_content] => The sharp increase in US shale production since 2011 has resulted in structural shifts in regional and global oil trade flows. In turn, this is having a major impact on oil benchmarks inside and outside the US. Brent, the major benchmark for international oil trade, is likely to be impacted the most. While the volume of US crude delivered to Europe has been rising since the US lifted the ban on crude exports in 2016, production of North Sea oil grades deliverable into the Brent basket has been falling for some time. The Brent complex must adapt to these transformations or risk its position being undermined, but changing an established benchmark with manifold layers is not a straightforward process and would require changes to the various layers in the Brent complex and their interrelationships. This comment examines a key layer of the Brent system: Contracts for Difference or CFDs.

 

 
                    [post_title] => Contracts for Difference and the Evolution of the Brent Complex
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                    [post_date] => 2019-03-21 11:16:56
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                    [post_content] => On 25 February this year Platts, a division of S&P Global, announced the inclusion of delivered, or CIF (Cost, Insurance and Freight), Rotterdam offers of North Sea oil cargoes into its flagship Dated Brent benchmark starting from 1 October 2019. Competing price reporting agency (PRA) Argus is already publishing its ‘New North Sea Dated’ assessment (this includes delivered assessments of non-North Sea grades) and is likely to officially adopt it as a methodology behind its ‘North Sea Dated’ index in July this year. These moves may represent the biggest changes to a major global oil benchmark this century. The changes are necessary for two main reasons: the fall in North Sea production and trade and the increase in Europe’s oil imports from the USA. This Comment will discuss the current state of the Dated Brent benchmark, the impact of declining volumes of oil included in the price assessment process, and the increasing flow of US oil exports to Europe.

 

[post_title] => Changes to the 'Dated Brent' benchmark: more to come [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => changes-dated-brent-benchmark-come [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2019-03-21 11:16:56 [post_modified_gmt] => 2019-03-21 11:16:56 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=31485 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [2] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 31257 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2018-11-02 10:37:49 [post_date_gmt] => 2018-11-02 10:37:49 [post_content] => Since October 2018 Saudi Aramco has used the DME Oman daily settlement price in its pricing formula for Asian customers. The DME Oman futures contract settles daily, based on a weighted average of trades between 16.25 and 16.30 Singapore time (often referred to as a ‘window’). In line with the usual timing of Asian oil purchases, this contract trades two months before the actual month of loading. Therefore, during November 2018, for example, the front month contract is January 2019. The Oman official selling price (OSP) is set using the monthly average of the DME Oman daily settlements. Physical Oman is generally traded on the basis of this OSP. On most days the DME Oman settlement is based on a relatively large volume of trades. However, this volume tends to fall rapidly as the last day of trading approaches. In March 2016 DME introduced a new methodology designed to boost liquidity on the last day of the contract (‘on expiry’). Nevertheless, as the price spike at the end of September 2018 shows, the problem persists. While this was an extreme event, it still needs to be addressed. The most likely solution, as presented here, is the introduction of an alternative delivery mechanism.

 

[post_title] => What Next for Asian Benchmarks? – A Footnote [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => next-asian-benchmarks-footnote [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2018-11-02 10:37:49 [post_modified_gmt] => 2018-11-02 10:37:49 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=31257 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [3] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 31195 [post_author] => 111 [post_date] => 2018-09-20 09:54:13 [post_date_gmt] => 2018-09-20 08:54:13 [post_content] => In October 2017, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) decided to limit sulphur content in all marine fuels from the current 3.5 per cent to 0.5 per cent, commencing in January 2020. Meeting these requirements will involve huge effort by the refining and shipping industries. Investments in the energy industry are notoriously large, risky, price sensitive and come with long lead times and gestation periods. Given these features, and as the implementation deadline approaches, most of the adjustments will need to be reflected in terms of movement in relative product prices. So far, most of the literature has focused on the IMO 2020 impacts on the refining and shipping sectors. Relatively little has been done to assess the impact on the prices of global oil benchmarks. This Comment attempts to fill this gap. Specifically, it analyses the impact of IMO 2020 on the Brent– Dubai (BD) spread, the key price differential which regulates oil flows between the two biggest oil markets: the Atlantic basin and Asia. It begins by discussing the relationship between the Brent and Dubai benchmarks, and factors that drive this relationship. We then construct a simple crude yield comparison between the Brent and Dubai baskets using existing forward curves for products and freight. We find that the forward prices for oil products and shipping costs are consistent with the forward swap spread for BD. However, under certain circumstances, high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) may have to find a home in the power sector. If HSFO is forced to compete with coal, the BD spread may have to widen to almost $10 per barrel. Nevertheless, the BD spread will eventually adjust back to historical levels (and relatively quickly), driven by storage economics, investments in shipping and upgrading refinery units. [post_title] => IMO 2020 and the Brent-Dubai Spread [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => imo-2020-brent-dubai-spread [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2018-09-20 09:54:13 [post_modified_gmt] => 2018-09-20 08:54:13 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.oxfordenergy.org/?post_type=publications&p=31195 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publications [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [4] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 27392 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2014-10-15 11:54:17 [post_date_gmt] => 2014-10-15 10:54:17 [post_content] => Dubai crude oil has been the main Asian benchmark since the mid-1980s. The most notable and recent development in the Dubai benchmark has been the significant increase in the liquidity in the Platts ‘window’. What has caused this increase in liquidity? To answer this question, this comment will look at the two recent shifts in international oil market dynamics. Firstly, Asian demand growth and the increase in US tight oil production, and secondly, the associated shift in crude oil trade dynamics. Then it will examine the changes within the Asian crude oil market, leading to the increased assertiveness of the regional players in the price formation process. Finally, this comment will consider some remaining issues with the Dubai market, and a possible way forward for Asian benchmarks in general. 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In turn, this is having a major impact on oil benchmarks inside and outside the US. Brent, the major benchmark for international oil trade, is likely to be impacted the most. While the volume of US crude delivered to Europe has been rising since the US lifted the ban on crude exports in 2016, production of North Sea oil grades deliverable into the Brent basket has been falling for some time. The Brent complex must adapt to these transformations or risk its position being undermined, but changing an established benchmark with manifold layers is not a straightforward process and would require changes to the various layers in the Brent complex and their interrelationships. 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Latest Publications by Adi Imsirovic