Session 1: Oil demand: A very uneven recovery
The demand shock is special in many ways compared to previous shocks: in addition to its size and the speed at which global oil demand contracted, its impact has been highly uneven across geographies. How does When or whether oil demand will return to its pre-crisis level? Will demand growth go to a lower trajectory path? What are some of the implications of the differentiated impacts of the shock? What has been the impact on the various parts of the barrel? How is the refining sector coping?
Session 2: OPEC+ Dynamics During Covid-19
High OPEC+ compliance has been a key feature in 2020 and this will remain key throughout the entirety of the deal. Can OPEC+ maintain its cohesion? What are some of the key lessons from the current cycle? OPEC+ and US shale: What are the new dynamics between OPEC+ and shale? What would an exit strategy for OPEC+ look like? Could we see another shift in OPEC+ conduct?
Session 3: North America’s oil production: Already peaked?
After a sharp reduction at the start of the crisis, shut-in well in US shale and Canada returned sooner than expected but the US shale and Canadian oil sands still face financial constraints and rig activity remains low. Has US shale production peaked or will US shale surprise yet again? What does a Biden Administration mean for US shale? Will consolidation of the US shale accelerate? Can growth be achieved outside the Permian? Can US shale still achieve productivity gains? What is the outlook for Canadian production? Will Canadian production escape from the bottlenecks?
Oil Day Webinar
What awaits oil markets in 2021-2022?
This presentations summarises some of the key questions that will be discussed at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies’ Oil Day webinar, 'What awaits oil markets in 2021-2022?'
Latest Oil Programme Publication
Oil Market Recovery and the Balance of Risks
While the market is shifting its attention to OPEC+ dynamics and the return of Libyan and Iranian barrels, the reality remains that this is first and foremost a demand shock and ultimately the evolution of demand will be the key factor shaping oil market outcomes. This demand shock is special in many ways compared to previous shocks: in addition to its size and the speed at which global oil demand contracted, its impact has been highly uneven across geographies (Asia versus the rest of the world) and across fuels (jet fuel and distillate demand versus other parts of the barrel). This has created a challenge for refineries and their margins have been under severe pressure. The combination of OPEC+ cuts and the return of Libyan barrels have created unevenness in terms of crude quality, with light sweet crudes in abundant supply compared to heavy-medium and sour crudes. The size of the shock and the unevenness of its impacts imply a recovery process which is far from smooth.