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The Oil and the Middle East Research Programme of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies was established in 2009. It is dedicated to the advanced study of contemporary oil markets, production, consumption and policy. With a historical focus on the resource-rich economies of the Middle East, research on the Programme...
The Natural Gas Research Programme, launched in 2003, has become one of the foremost sources of independent academic research on natural gas. The programme focuses on natural gas within the disciplines of the Institute: economics, politics and sociology, international relations of gas-producing, consuming and transit countries, as well as the...
The OIES Electricity Research Programme was established in 2015. The Programme seeks to inform public and private sector decision-making by improving understanding of the electricity supply chain. The Programme studies the role of public policy, regulation, and markets to support the energy transition, along with implications for end-users, companies and...
Launched in 2019 the OIES China Energy Research Programme, is a center of analytical excellence offering insights into the factors that inform China’s energy policies and choices and their pivotal role in global energy markets. China is the world’s second largest economy, biggest importer of crude oil, the fastest growing...
The crucial position that Saudi Arabia has in global oil markets cannot be overstated. In 2019 its proven crude oil reserves stood at 297.6 billion barrels, representing 17 per cent of the world’s total. In the same year Saudi Arabia produced 11.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude, blended, and unblended condensates, and natural gas liquids. The country produces a...
This paper looked at 39 hydrogen associations across Europe to understand which economic sectors support the hydrogen transition in Europe, and why they do so. Several broad conclusions can be drawn from this paper. It is clear that the support for hydrogen is broad and from a very wide spectrum of economic actors that have clear interests in the success...
While the episode of negative WTI price is still being actively debated, its proper root cause is yet to be determined. This Comment contributes to the discussion and studies the event by modifying the theory of storage for an oil market with rigid operational infrastructure, where short-term supply and demand are price inelastic. We found that such pricing anomaly can...
The year 2020 is an important year for China. President Xi Jinping, in his New Year speech in January 2020, called it a year of ‘milestone significance’ as the country was set to achieve its goal of building a ‘moderately prosperous society’—which entails doubling the size of the economy from its 2010 levels and eradicating poverty. At the same time,...
Despite the COVID-19 shock, China is likely to be the only major economy to have expanded in 2020. The strong rebound in economic activity, bolstered mainly by infrastructure investments, has been fossil fuel intensive, supporting global oil and LNG markets. The strength of the recovery was such that the country suffered from power and gas shortages over the course of...
After achieving month-on-month gains in every month between May and August, the Brent price shed some of these gains in September and October. While the main risks facing the oil market are still being dominated by demand factors, the risks on the supply side have also been on the rise. On the demand side, the recovery of oil demand has...
Session 1: Oil demand: A very uneven recovery
The demand shock is special in many ways compared to previous shocks: in addition to its size and the speed at which global oil demand contracted, its impact has been highly uneven across geographies. How does When or whether oil demand will return to its pre-crisis level? Will demand growth go to a lower trajectory path? What are some of the implications of the differentiated impacts of the shock? What has been the impact on the various parts of the barrel? How is the refining sector coping?
Session 2: OPEC+ Dynamics During Covid-19
High OPEC+ compliance has been a key feature in 2020 and this will remain key throughout the entirety of the deal. Can OPEC+ maintain its cohesion? What are some of the key lessons from the current cycle? OPEC+ and US shale: What are the new dynamics between OPEC+ and shale? What would an exit strategy for OPEC+ look like? Could we see another shift in OPEC+ conduct?
Session 3: North America’s oil production: Already peaked?
After a sharp reduction at the start of the crisis, shut-in well in US shale and Canada returned sooner than expected but the US shale and Canadian oil sands still face financial constraints and rig activity remains low. Has US shale production peaked or will US shale surprise yet again? What does a Biden Administration mean for US shale? Will consolidation of the US shale accelerate? Can growth be achieved outside the Permian? Can US shale still achieve productivity gains? What is the outlook for Canadian production? Will Canadian production escape from the bottlenecks?
This presentations summarises some of the key questions that will be discussed at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies’ Oil Day webinar, 'What awaits oil markets in 2021-2022?'
While the market is shifting its attention to OPEC+ dynamics and the return of Libyan and Iranian barrels, the reality remains that this is first and foremost a demand shock and ultimately the evolution of demand will be the key factor shaping oil market outcomes. This demand shock is special in many ways compared to previous shocks: in addition to its size and the speed at which global oil demand contracted, its impact has been highly uneven across geographies (Asia versus the rest of the world) and across fuels (jet fuel and distillate demand versus other parts of the barrel). This has created a challenge for refineries and their margins have been under severe pressure. The combination of OPEC+ cuts and the return of Libyan barrels have created unevenness in terms of crude quality, with light sweet crudes in abundant supply compared to heavy-medium and sour crudes. The size of the shock and the unevenness of its impacts imply a recovery process which is far from smooth.
Jonathan Stern on JKM spike and the extent of gas exposure to winter uncertainty: the spike shows how poorly prepar… https://t.co/TcKuD2loe1
“What should we expect from Biden’s energy and climate policy?” Read the article by Marshall Hall in our new OIES G… https://t.co/CZ8o0Qb58N
The phase-out of coal-fired generation across Europe could slow in 2021 amid more favourable market conditions than… https://t.co/asSFSsy2zO
#China’s economic recovery boosted #oil and #LNG markets in 2020. Winter shortages emphasized supply security & hi… https://t.co/v40iYYRLzl
Natural Gas Research Programme 
Oil and the Middle East Research Programme 
Electricity Research Programme 
China Energy Research Programme