Energy Economics
Natural Gas Price Volatility in the UK and North America
Published: 2nd February 2012| By: Sofya Alterman
Lacking a commonly held definition, volatility is an often over-generalised term with different meanings to different constituencies. This does not detract from the importance of the subject. To traders volatility is a source of revenue, to energy intensive industrial end-users it is often perceived as a threat. Midstream utilities actively work to risk-manage volatility in [...]
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Rosneft – On the Road to Global NOC Status?
Published: 19th January 2012| By: James Henderson
Since the election of Vladimir Putin as president of Russia in 2000 Rosneft has become one of the cornerstones of the strategy for the Russian state to retake control over the ‘commanding heights’ of the economy, and in particular the energy sector. However, having now established itself as a global-scale oil company, Rosneft faces a [...]
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The Outlook for U.S. Gas Prices in 2020: Henry Hub at $3 or $10?
Published: 21st December 2011| By: Michelle Michot Foss
In this paper Michelle Foss concludes that Henry Hub gas prices could credibly be as low as $3/MMbtu, or as high as $10/MMbtu in 2020 but that the balance of likelihoods is for a price late this decade which is significantly higher than the current $3-4/MMbtu levels of 2011. Michelle Foss’ study looks at the [...]
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Domestic Gas Prices in Russia – Towards Export Netback?
Published: 4th November 2011| By: James Henderson
This paper, by James Henderson, concludes that Russian domestic gas prices are not likely to reach European netback levels any time soon, but that the momentum of the past five years towards significantly higher domestic prices will continue, leading to an eventual liberalization of the Russian gas market. Over the next decade, this could create [...]
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The Pricing Debate over Russian Gas Exports to China
Published: 3rd October 2011| By: James Henderson
The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies has recently published a paper which concludes that agreement between Russia and China for pipeline gas exports may not be reached this year or even in 2012. The paper by James Henderson suggests that the Chinese have developed other gas import options from Central Asia, Myanmar and a range [...]
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Cumulative Carbon Emissions and Climate Change: Has the Economics of Climate Policies Lost Contact with the Physics?
Published: 22nd July 2011| By: John Rhys
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are essentially cumulative in character; but much of the economic analysis and policy making in relation to the mitigation of CO2 emissions fails to reflect fully this fundamental feature of any analysis of the impact of emissions on climate. The cumulative and irreversible nature of CO2 emissions implies that a significantly [...]
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The Oil Trading Markets, 2003-2010: Analysis of market behaviour and possible policy responses
Published: 11th April 2011| By: Adair Turner, Jon Farrimond, Jonathan Hill
In this working paper, Adair Turner et al. consider price movements in the oil trading markets between 2003 and 2010, and provide an analysis of factors which potentially explain the significant trends in this period. The authors also discuss the impact of different forms of oil price volatility and propose the type that matters most [...]
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The Strategic Implications of Russia’s Eastern Oil Resources
Published: 5th April 2011| By: James Henderson
Russian oil exports have historically been focused on western markets but the rapid growth of the Asia-Pacific economies over the past two decades has led to a re-focusing of Russia’s strategic and energy interests. The oil and gas resources of East Siberia and the Far East of Russia have long been known about and a [...]
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The Transition to Hub-Based Gas Pricing in Continental Europe
Published: 31st March 2011| By: Jonathan Stern, Howard Rogers
This paper by Jonathan Stern and Howard Rogers argue that Continental European gas markets are moving inexorably from oil-linked to hub-based pricing. Market prices for gas increasingly reflect a complex combination of national regional and global supply and demand for gas rather than oil products. An increasingly competitive European gas market created by third party [...]
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Algeria’s Shifting Gas Export Strategy: between policy and market constraints
Published: 31st March 2011| By: Hakim Darbouche
This paper, by Hakim Darbouche, analyses the main drivers of Algeria’s gas export strategy since the early 2000s. It argues that, after suffering a series of setbacks owing to the policy inconsistencies of the administration of former energy minister Chakib Khelil, Algeria’s gas export strategy now faces a number of constraints as a result of [...]
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