The Future of Russian Gas and Gazprom

pp. 265, 44 tables, 2 figures, 10 maps

The Russian gas industry meets 50% of Russian domestic energy demand, a substantial proportion of CIS gas supplies, and around 25% of European gas demand. As existing fields decline Gazprom faces increasingly difficult decisions about moving to higher cost fields on the Yamal Peninsula and offshore. The alternatives are increasing imports from Central Asian countries and allowing other Russian gas producers to increase their role in the industry. Russian exports to Europe will gradually increase and deliveries of Russian LNG will commence to Asia and the both coasts of North America. Pipeline gas deliveries to East Asian countries may have a longer time horizon. Export projects aimed at new markets will depend crucially on the maintenance of (oil and) gas prices at the levels of 2003-05. European exports will also depend on the pace of EU market liberalisation and Gazprom’s ability to agree mutually acceptable terms for transit, principally with Ukraine and Belarus.

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Contents

1. The Russian Gas Market
   • Resources and Reserves
   • Domestic Supply Options
   • Independent Gas Companies
   • Gas Processing and Production of Liquids
   • Production Projections: Gazprom and Independents
   • Transmission and Storage
   • Distribution and Sales
   • The Domestic Market: Demand, Prices and Payments
   • The Future of Russian Gas Demand: The Potential Impact of pricing, Conservation and Efficiency and Industrial Restructuring
   • Taxation
   • Summary and Conclusions
2. CIS Gas Trade and Transit ·
   • Trade and Transit in the 1990s and Early 2000s
   • Central Asian Exporting Countries: Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan
   • The Caucasus Republics: Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia
   • Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova
   • The Broader Political and Geopolitical Context Summary and Conclusions
3. Export Strategy and Challenges: Europe, Asia and LNG
   • Europe
   • Asia
   • Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) Exports to the United States
   • Summary and Conclusions
4. Reform, Restructuring and Liberalisation of the Gas Industry
   • Ownership and Control
   • Gazprom Management and Relationships with Government
   • Reform: Pricing, Liberalisation and Restructuring
   • Summary and Conclusion
5. The Future of Russian Gas and Gazprom
   • Resources and Supply
   • Demand and Prices
   • Price, Demand and Supply Scenarios
   • Reform and Restructuring
   • Exports
   • Gazprom: From Russian Gas Utility to ‘Global Gas Company’?

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